Community Projections: Defense
by Jordan M on Mar 4, 2010 5:30 PM CST
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintBecause I haven't seen a better approach to this than what we did last year, we are going to do it the same way again. I'm going to list the CHONE projections for defense per 150 games, and people can give individual ideas about who we should move up or down or just throw an entirely new set out there. I'll be home around 7:00, so I'll contribute my ideas then but I'd like for everyone who cares to help to get some ideas out there before I return.
Ideally we come up with a set of projections we can work with. I know there won't be a consensus, but I think we can work this down to a pretty good idea of what we're going to project.
The resources here are the Fangraphs defense stats (those are only last year, search for another player in the top right corner or click on the name of a player who was on the team last year). The UZR/150 category is the relevant one here. The CHONE projections are at Baseball-Projection.com.
If anyone is unfamiliar with the units, it's runs the player saved compared to average at that position. We are not dealing with positional adjustments here, just comparing each player to others at the same position. A +10 or above defender is usually extremely good, and a -10 or below defender is extremely bad, with 0 being average.
With that here's the list, and don't be afraid to speak up and state your opinion. We need a lot of contribution here. There are quite a few I think we should change. Also note that centerfield and corner outfield projections are on a different scale, so Gerut might project as a +5 corner outfielder. Where I write "none" we need to come up with a number because CHONE is only projecting players at one position this year.
Catchers
Gregg Zaun -2
George Kottaras -14
Matt Treanor -3
Infielders
1B Prince Fielder -3
2B Rickie Weeks -7
2B Craig Counsell 8
2B Joe Inglett None
SS Alcides Escobar +1
SS Craig Counsell None
3B Casey McGehee -4
3B Mat Gamel -12
3B Craig Counsell None
Outfielders
CF Carlos Gomez +13
CF Jody Gerut +1
OF Ryan Braun -5
OF Corey Hart 3
OF Jim Edmonds -1
OF Jody Gerut None
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I'm guessing / Hoping
Prince will be closer to average, -1 -2…
Weeks is pretty low, I doubt he’s that bad, maybe -5.
McGehee should probably be higher. -7
Corey Hart also should probably be -2
"Cubs suck. I own them" -Doug Davis
Do you mean Gamel instead of McGehee?
McGehee is projected at -4, I think you’re referring to Gamel, who is -12. I agree on Hart, I’d go even higher on Weeks, and I’m not certain about Prince. I said -5 below, but I’d be fine with -3.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
My guesses
1B Fielder: -3
2B Weeks: 0 (UZR/150 says he’s been getting significantly better defensively over his career, and was actually an excellent defender in the small sample of 2009. I don’t see a -7 R/150, at least not as measured by UZR)
2B Counsell: +8
2B Inglett: -7
SS Escobar: +5
SS Counsell: +5
3B McGehee: +3 (He was always praised for his defense in the minor leagues and that’s supported by his minor league defensive data. I think he’ll be an above average 3B.)
3B Gamel: -12
3B Counsell: +6
CF Gomez: +16 (His career UZR/150 is 14.2 and he’s still learning. Carlos Gomez can do anything.)
CF Gerut: +1
OF Braun: -5
OF Hart: -4 (I don’t know how CHONE has Hart as above average. His defensive numbers have been plummeting since 2007, something I think most of us could point out even without consulting UZR)
OF Edmonds: -10 (Not a huge sample size, but his 2008 UZR stats suggest he’s losing his arm as well as his range. I don’t think he’ll be anywhere near average anymore, not even in the corners)
OF Gerut: 0
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
His UZR/150 numbers:
Career LF: -2.5 (Not a large sample)
Career CF: 10.4
Career RF: -0.3
2009 CF: 9.6
2009 RF: 2.8
It actually looks like his CF projection should be even higher, I just left it at CHONE’s +1 because it sounded about right. I’m not sure why but I’ve found from looking at a number of excellent centerfielders that their defensive numbers often get worse at the corners, though why that is I’m not sure.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Mar 4, 2010 6:48 PM CST up reply actions
could it be
a combination of the premium placed on the center field position (I think UZR gives it a default +10 over corner outfielders, or something along those lines) coupled with the significantly larger number of plays a center fielder has the chance to make. With many fewer opportunities to make plays, it’s harder to separate far from average.
I’m sort of new to a lot of the advanced stats, so I apologize if this is way off base for some simple reason I have overlooked.
I think that Escobar is going to be higher than he is.
I don’t really know where to place him, though.
Hopefully starting the season in the majors, having the starting job locked up, etc. helps him adjust to his defensive potential faster. Best case is probably a first-full-season UZR/150 close to Elvis Andrus’ 11.7 from 2009. In the minors in 2008, Escobar was rated 20 R/150 better than even Andrus, after all.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Mar 4, 2010 6:18 PM CST up reply actions
GAMEL -12
can’t wait for all the gamel lovers to tell us they know better!!!
by Bill From Boytown on Mar 4, 2010 6:40 PM CST reply actions
It is a CHONE projection based on TotalZone from the minors... which is far from an exact science
McGehee was worse than that last year.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I'll bet Bill will tell you that its inaccurate for McGehee, but not for Gamel
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 4, 2010 8:57 PM CST up reply actions
Infielders
1B Prince Fielder -1
2B Rickie Weeks -1
2B Craig Counsell 8
2B Joe Inglett -5
SS Alcides Escobar +10
SS Craig Counsell +6
3B Casey McGehee 0
3B Mat Gamel -8
3B Craig Counsell +5
Outfielders
CF Carlos Gomez +13
CF Jody Gerut +1
OF Ryan Braun -5
OF Corey Hart -3
OF Jim Edmonds -8
OF Jody Gerut +4
Basically Weeks,Escobar and MeGehee will be better than their CHONE predictions whilst Hart and Edmonds will be worse.
I have left off the catchers because I have never really understood how they work out the numbers for that position.
My thoughts
Kottaras goes up a lot, I’m sure he’s hurt by catching Wakefield last year. I’ll say -2 or something.
I say we go way up with Weeks. He was 4 in his limited time last year (20/150) and overall he evens out to average over the past 3 seasons. I’m going to say he’s around 0.
I’m going up on Escobar as well. I’ll say +6 or 7. I think he can do better but I’d rather be conservative.
I’ll knock Fielder down to maybe -5.
I’m putting Counsell around +6 at short and +8 at third.
I think McGehee’s about right, maybe -5, and Gamel is low. I’ll take -8 or -9 for Gamel.
Gomez looks to be about right. That’s a really high number to project but wow is he good in center.
Based on that strange UZR trend some people noticed, Gerut looks to be about average in center and right. I could see going higher in center.
Braun at -5 looks about good, and I’d say Hart gets moved down to slightly below average. Between 0 and -2.
Lot of good stuff so far.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Ok, I'll play
Catchers
Gregg Zaun -2
George Kottaras 0 (past numbers are skewed by catching Wakefield in Boston.)
Matt Treanor -3
Infielders
1B Prince Fielder -3
2B Rickie Weeks 0
2B Craig Counsell 8
2B Joe Inglett -5
SS Alcides Escobar +10
SS Craig Counsell +3
3B Casey McGehee 0 (assuming his knee is fine)
3B Mat Gamel -8
3B Craig Counsell +12
Outfielders
CF Carlos Gomez +13
CF Jody Gerut +1
OF Ryan Braun -5
OF Corey Hart 0
OF Jim Edmonds -10
OF Jody Gerut +6
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
-14 is probably too low, but Kottaras was a poor defender even in the minors when he wasn’t catching Wakefield.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Mar 4, 2010 9:38 PM CST up reply actions
I don't know how to turn it into numbers or if it's something that would be reflected here
But I think Prince will be hurt this year by having Escobar and Weeks throwing the ball all over instead of Hardy and Lopez throwing it to him.
Yeah, strength-wise
But Hardy always seemed to throw it right to Prince’s chest. Escobar doesn’t, at least from what I remember of last September.
This is true
He rushes throws, and tries to make the ‘flashy’ play (immaturity). I’m sure someone will excuse it by saying his RF is the highest known to man, but whatever. I’d still rather that ball get through to the shallow outfield than the hitter advance to 2B on a throwing error.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 5, 2010 8:19 AM CST up reply actions
A shallow outfield hit advances a man to 2nd
I think your point was that Escobar will settle down over time and I agree wholeheartedly. For now, though, cutting a ball off will either keep a runner at 2nd or have him caught in an unexpected rundown. A 3rd base coach might even hesitate to send a slow runner home with Escobar gobbling up anything and everything hit his way.
But with Escobar's amazin' defense, that guy wouldn't be on 2nd anyway!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 5, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Doesn’t Escobar have just as good of an arm a hose as Hardy did?
/Witrado’d
by Cheeseandcorn on Mar 5, 2010 8:37 AM CST up reply actions
I'll be looking forward to watching Gomez patrol the outfield
Does a +13 just mean he’s going to be making impressive plays look routine? I mean, you don’t have to lay out for a ball if you’ve already run underneath it. He may, paradoxically, be a little more boring than I’d expect a top-notch center fielder to be.
Exactly
And that’s why pure observation is flawed, and why I think Cameron was often undervalued. But then again I’m sure he will make his share of incredible plays this season.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I may regret saying this
And you can chalk it up to the flaws of pure observation…but I was expecting to be more impressed by Cameron’s defense. Maybe it’s as ecocd suggested, that he made impressive pays look routine, but the errors he made also stand out, and balance out the great plays.
Now that he is an ex-Brewer, my impression of him is that he was a good but not great centerfielder.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I'm still incredibly impressed by his fielding.
He never made a bad jump (Aside from the windy playoff game). His range was so good that he made just about every play look easy. He saw the ball off the bat and knew exactly where to go and how fast to run.
Isn’t that the whole purpose of things like TotalZone? To show that errors are not the best way to judge fielders, especially outfielders? you’d rather have your centerfielder make an error on a ball that nobody else could get to than let it drop because he couldn’t get to it.
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
That's a point, too
He may make impressive plays look routine, but that usually means he’ll make nigh-impossible plays look impressive. The story about nearly catching a foul ball in left field at home last season has me excited. That kid can fly.
CF catching a foul ball
Maybe it’s a good thing he didn’t, based on the subsequent career of the last guy who did.
What is up with the Weeks ranking
It seems to me as though he was ranked the best defensive 2B in the league last year before his injury.
The best? Am I missing sarcasm?
Cards Announcers On Gamel's First Career HR, "That’s all they need is another home run hitter".
Over 30 defensive games he had an UZR/150 of 21.9, which if sustained for the entire season would have landed him second only to Ben Zobrist at 2B (and first by a large margin over full-time secondbasemen). Small sample size though, obviously.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Mar 5, 2010 2:58 PM CST up reply actions
I would put Weeks at about even or a little below. Maybe -2.
Escobar at +1 is close enough. Until he actually plays good defense in the majors average defense is a good assumption.
McGehee should be at 0. Gamel I might put up around -5. He has the tools to be a good defender with work and wasn’t as horrible as expected last year. Actually had a better UZR than McGehee.(small sample of course)
Jody Gerut should probably be closer to +8 in CF. Of course that would go down depending on playing time but that’’s where I would put him over a whole season.
Edmonds at -1 seems a bit generous.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
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