Community Projections: Starting Pitchers
by Jordan M on Mar 8, 2010 5:45 PM CST
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PrintWe are only going to tackle the obvious top six on the depth chart here, and the projections (as noted in the instructions) are only for the time spent in the starting rotation. So if you think Suppan is the man moved to the bullpen and in an unlikely scenario, doesn't get any starts this year project him for 0 innings pitched. Obviously it's also illogical to project them all for 200 innings.
Here's the CHONE projections page, I'm not going to transfer each one. You can click on a player to view his pitch f/x report from last season. Fangraphs is another great resource.
With that, have at it, and thanks for the participation once again.
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So are we projectin their FIP or ERA or Both
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Whatever you want to call it
Just put in a number on the ERA scale that you think reflects their talent, I don’t like to just call it ERA because that suggests that we’re factoring in defense when we really shouldn’t be.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
heh
so you don’t want a ratio of the two
“I think his FIP will be 20% higher than his ERA, because he’ll get lucky” 1.2
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 9, 2010 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
Davis will probably have a lower ERA than FIP again.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Gallardo: 3.55 FIP, 200 IP
Wolf: 4.05 FIP, 190 IP
Davis: 4.50 FIP, 200 IP
Bush: 4.80 FIP, 80 IP
Parra: 4.20 FIP, 175 IP
Suppan: 5.35 FIP, 120 IP
(IP estimates for the last three are anybody’s guess at this point, I see Bush opening the season in the bullpen as the most likely outcome though)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Bernie's going to jump
Into something new…http://chicago-tough.com/2010/03/08/bernie-brewer-to-slide-into-politically-correct-glass-of-pomergranate-cranberry-juice/
"You're fired." - Dallas Green to Billy Connors while Billy was staying in the hospital.
Love this part...
(Bernie Brewer): Who the hell am I foolin’, I want my &%$kin’ beer! This isn’t San Francisco, it’s Milwaukee. Land of the free, home of the goddamned beer! Where the hell is my beer?!
And seriously, Pomegranate Cranberry? @notkenmacha…did you arrange this. Be honest, how many cases of Pom-Cran did they give you for your cooperation?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Notkenmacha...
Only drinks Cran-X drinks.
Cran-Grape
Cran-Apple
Cran-Prune
Cran-Cherry
etc.
If he doesn’t see “Cran” leading off, he moves on down the shelf.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Mar 9, 2010 7:39 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
We're the Brewers
I can only see a few non-alcoholic products being valid
ie Sprecher Ginger Ale
by PagsBrewCrew on Mar 9, 2010 12:04 PM CST up reply actions
I hate these ones...
I went all FIP:
Gallardo: 3.90 195 IP
Wolf: 4.20 180 IP (will he REALLY be healthy 3 years in a row?)
Davis: 4.75 210 IP
Bush: 4.50 180 IP
Parra: 4.25 190 IP
Suppan: 5.90 120 IP
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
Gallardo: 3.75 195 IP
Wolf: 4.25 195 IP
Davis: 4.25 195 IP
Bush: 4.75 195 IP
Parra: 4.75 165 IP
Suppan: 5.25 60 IP
My gut feeling is that Suppan ends up in the rotation to start. I really hope he is only in the rotation if there is an injury. I think Parra ends up in the pen for part of the season because of inconsistency.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
FWIW
Only 4 times in 10 seasons has Doug Davis posted a FIP at or below 4.25: 3.95 in 2001, 3.57 in 2004, 3.98 in 2005, and 4.15 in 2008. But that’s what projections are for.
I hate pitching the most, as they seem the most likely to fluctuate to me.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Mar 9, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
To be honest, I put in ERA's.
I don’t think that matters much since Miller Park plays pretty neutral and our defense is pretty average. I was probably at least a little optimistic with my projection for Davis.
I agree that pitching it pretty volatile in general. One time “taking one for the team” can easily raise an ERA at the end of the season by 0.25 points.(it happened to Parra last year, 5 runs he should have never given up against the Marlins). Projecting a range would be better, but that probably wouldn’t work for something like this. I would have at least a 0.50 range for every pitcher. 1.00 for Bush and Parra.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
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