Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Apr 1, 2010 9:43 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while writing a book review.
Today's Cactus League finale has had the ever-dreaded "Weather Pemitting" tag attached to it, with Adam McCalvy noting that the grounds crew had the tarp on the field last night, as heavy rain was expected to fall in Phoenix overnight. Looking at the radar this morning, though, it appears the system has passed and today's game should be played without a problem.
Corey Hart continues to struggle, opening the door for Jim Edmonds to potentially start in right field on Opening Day. Bob Nightengale of USA Today cites Hart, who is 1-for his last 27 (and was caught stealing after the single), as proof that spring training stats do matter. At least Hart is saying the right things about his struggles, giving this quote to Tom Haudricourt:
Asked if he feared his spring woes might cost him playing time, including an opening day start, Hart said, "I wouldn’t feel good about it but at the same time I did this to myself. Obviously, I haven’t had the spring they want me to have.
"If that happens, I’ll have to work to get back in their good graces. It’s not from a lack of work. I’ve just got to keep battling. If I go out and do well when I get my chance, everything will be OK."
On the other end of the spectrum, Carlos Gomez has 13 hits in his last 37 at bats (batting .351), and has stolen five bases over that time to expand his spring training-leading total to eleven. Adam McCalvy reports that Ken Macha has enlisted Dale Sveum, Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks to work with Gomez on stressing the importance of getting on base. He's still only drawn two walks this spring, but if he can use his speed to hit .300, he'll be ok.
Todd Coffey had a rough outing yesterday, allowing three runs in an inning of work, but apparently he had a pretty good excuse: He was pitching with a ruptured eardrum. He's expected to see a doctor today.
Speaking of pitching through injuries, Tom Haudricourt has some details and thoughts from Jeff Suppan regarding the neck issue that will keep him on the shelf for Opening Day.
Here's a telling sign of the difference between this year and last year's Brewer pitching staff: Mike Burns made eight starts for the 2009 Brewers, but yesterday the team released him (FanShot), with Gord Ash saying he wasn't one of the top five candidates to start in AAA. Burns never appeared in a Cactus League game this spring.
Elsewhere in camp minutiae:
- Gregg Zaun really likes breakfast.
If the Brewers can't find a way to win this season, it won't be for lack of effort from the front office. Adam McCalvy notes that only three teams spent more than the Brewers on free agents this offseason: the Red Sox, Cardinals and Mets (FanShot).
Minor league camp is winding down, and for some notable minor leaguers that means the end of their run in the Brewer organization. Via Brewerfan.net and Baseball America, we know the Brewers have cut ties with all of the following players:
- Australian starting pitcher David Welch, who had a 3.96 ERA over 266 AA innings in 2008 and 2009.
- 2008 6th round pick Jose Duran, who hit .221/.295/.299 for the Timber Rattlers last season.
- 2007 16th round pick Joel Morales, who pitched briefly in Arizona and for Helena last season.
- 2008 25th round pick John Delaney, who hit .207/.327/.291 for the Timber Rattlers last season.
- 2008 26th round pick C Derrick Alfonso, who played briefly for Helena, Wisconsin and Brevard County in 2009.
- 2009 27th round pick Ryan Platt, who posted a 5.54 ERA in 26 innings between Helena and Arizona last season.
- 2008 31st round pick and Brandon Rapoza, who posted a 2.13 ERA in 67.2 innings for Brevard County last season.
- 2009 Star and Sound Juan Sandoval, who posted a 4.91 ERA in 58.2 IP between AA and AAA in 2009.
- 2009 Huntsville 2B Shane Justis, who posted a .277/.346/.385 line in AA last season.
- 2009 Huntsville SS Yohannis Perez, who hit .262/.317/.355 in AA last season.
- 2009 BC Mantaee Rafael Lluberes, who posted a 3.51 ERA in 51.1 IP.
Baseball America also noted that Chris Ellington, a 2009 32nd round pick who hit .285/.320/.465 in Helena last season, has decided to retire.
Elsewhere in the minors:
- Minor League Baseball Prospects has sorted their top prospect lists by category. Evan Anundsen, Jake Odorizzi, Maverick Lasker, Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta all appear on the pitching lists, and Caleb Gindl, Brett Lawrie, Alcides Escobar, Jonathan Lucroy and Taylor Green appear on the hitting lists.
- Adam Foster of Project Prospect has one of the worst reviews of Brett Lawrie's defense I've seen, saying a scout gave him an F- defensive review and said he "only cares about hitting." The same scout projects Lawrie as a DH-only candidate.
On predictions, projections, rankings and whatnot:
- Phillies Nation is picking the Brewers for 89 wins and second place.
- McCovey Chronicles is picking the Brewers for 84 wins and second place.
- View From Bernie's Chalet is predicting a second place finish.
- Replacement Level Yankees Weblog combined several projection systems to project the Brewers at 81.6 wins, third in the Central.
- Seamheads is picking the Brewers to finish third with 81-85 wins.
- C70 At The Bat is picking the Brewers to finish fourth in the Central.
- RealGM Baseball has a preview of the 2010 Brewers.
- So does Out Of Left Field.
- The Brew Town Beat has a preview of the Brewer outfield.
Meanwhile, our Community Predictions have the Brewers winning 86.1 games and finishing second in the Central. Prediction Week continues today and tomorrow, so keep checking back.
I'm guessing it's possible at least one of our readers was in this cardboard box waiting to buy tickets for Opening Day. I haven't decided if the story is sad or awesome, but I'm leaning towards awesome.
If you're looking for another Brewers blog to add to your reading list as the season approaches, you could certainly do worse than Disciples of Uecker, a new Brewer blog by Jack Moore, of FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score fame.
Around baseball:
Angels: Outfielder Reggie Willits could open the season on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Blue Jays: Pitcher Marc Rzepczynski will open the season on the DL with a broken finger.
Dodgers: Released outfielder Jason Repko.
Mariners: Corey Patterson has opted out of his minor league deal, becoming a free agent.
Mets: Jose Reyes (thyroid) and Daniel Murphy (right knee) will open the season on the DL.
Royals: Will be allowed to keep Rule 5 pick Edgar Osuna, after the Braves declined to take him back.
Meanwhile, Jarrod Washburn continues to wait and watch the market. The Mariners have a spot available and reportedly made him an offer, but he rejected it.
Ever wondered if pitchers or positions players are more likely to get injured? Beyond the Box Score has some pie charts that will finally give you an answer: Both sides are equally likely to get injured, but pitchers spend a little longer on the DL.
Expanding the influence of baseball internationally remains a top priority for Major League Baseball, and they're continuing to find new ways to do it. Apparently there's conversation taking place about spring training games in Italy sometime in the next few years.
I've discussed the financial plight of minor leaguers several times before, as many players are living on next to nothing while they pursue their dream of making the major leagues. Garrett Broshuis has a story at Baseball America that really drives home the depth of the issue.
On this day in 1970, Bud Selig finalized the purchase of the Seattle Pilots and moved the team to Milwaukee. The team played their first home game at Milwaukee County Stadium just six days later.
One year earlier, on this day in 1969, the Pilots traded outfielder Lou Piniella to the Royals for reliever John Gelnar and outfielder Steve Whitaker. Neither incoming player would do much for the Pilots, but Piniella won the AL Rookie of the Year with the Royals.
Happy birthday today to:
- John Axford, who turns 27.
- 1964-65 Milwaukee Brave Phil Niekro, who turns 71.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go melt some chocolate.
Drink up.
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I had to stop reading them
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 1, 2010 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
FSL is a pitchers league
But if youre drafted beneath say the 17th or 18th round, that is generally considered an “organizational” player. (i.e. not a chance in hell that you will ever make the mlb roster). Its all about stuff, tools and ceiling for minor leaguers. Results have very little to do with hwo they are evaluated.
That seems a little harsh.
Of the 28 players left in Brewer camp, five are guys drafted in the 17th round or later:
Gregg Zaun (17th rd, 1989)
Lorenzo Cain (17th rd, 2004)
George Kottaras (20th rd, 2002)
Manny Parra (26th rd, 2001)
Todd Coffey (41st rd, 1998)
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
success of low-round picks
It’s true that there have been a lot of low-round picks who have had success; that may not be the case in a few years with the elimination of the draft-and-follow.
On the other hand…checking on the 17th round of the 2006 draft, the year before the signing deadline was moved to August 15th, I see three players who have made major league rosters. (Not checking 2007; not even the early-round guys are getting called up this soon in large lots.)
David Robertson signed in August 2006, and made his MLB debut in June 2008.
Josh Reddick also signed in 8/06, debut 7/09.
Dan Runzler signed in 2007, presumably was a draft-and-follow.
18th round, 2006: Kam Mickolio signed almost instantly after the draft; he was up in August 2008.
Most of the late-round 2006 draft picks who have made the majors were not draft and follow picks.
The latest-round 2006 draft pick I can find who made the majors was Danny Ray Herrera; he went in the 45th round. It pays to be left-handed and to have unusual pitches. (Almost everyone here should have seen him pitch in 2009; he’s the small situational lefty on the Reds.) He seems to have been highly regarded by the prospect press; I’m thinking he was drafted so late only because of his size.
So, you’re correct in a way; the late rounds are full of filler and guys who don’t bother to sign contracts at all, but that’s not always the case.
CarGo has me re-thinking OPS
It useful as a shorthand, but it doesn’t really capture ‘total’ bases. With a double you are credited with a 1.500 OPS while a single and steal of 2B is worth 1.250 OPS but has achieved the same offensive outcome.
If CarGo has a .350 on-base in 600 PAs he will reach base 220 times this season. If he steals 60 bases in those 220 opportunities there is 30 points of unrecorded ‘slugging’ for the season.
Anyone aware of any attempts to account for this, or is the universe of guys where this matters just so small no one bothers?
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
wOBA includes data for SB and CS
That’s really pretty much all you’re talking about here; adding in value added by baserunning, in addition to just hitting. Generally it’s a relatively small contribution, but I believe for some guys it can add as much as a win.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Also
I don’t think a double is the same as a single + SB because there is a risk of an out in the SB that isn’t there on a double.
I’m guessing wOBA accounts for a lot of this?
Get a ife broseph
Yeah
It has a separate element for SB and CS. So, like, in the hitting part of it, a single is a single is a single, whether you’re Carlos Gomez or Adam Dunn. But then you’re given credit for all the bases you steal, and deducted credit for all the times you’re caught. So adding in the former makes hitting a single then stealing second roughly equivalent to hitting a double, then subtracting out the latter accounts for the risk of getting caught. Of course, it measures performance, rather than true talent, so if someone has a season where they never get caught stealing, it will act as though there’s no risk to them stealing a base. While this obviously isn’t actually the case, in terms of how the season turned it, it might as well have been the case.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
Does it adjust the CS ‘risk’ by the probability of a subsequent hitter grounding into a double play? Or are we getting into such minute adjustments it wouldn’t really matter to the final product?
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Apr 1, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, basically
It’s all based on changes in run expectancy. If a runner on first steals second, the number of runs you expect to score in the inning changes (more specifically, it goes up, obviously). And run expectancy takes everything into account. So if you have, say, runner on first, one out, you have a certain run expectancy (I believe it’s around 0.5, in this situation), based on all the possible outcomes; i.e., batter singles, runner moves to second, is scored on a single by the following batter; or perhaps batter doubles, runner scores, etc. Obviously, the batter grounding into a double play is one of these possible outcomes. The values of all these possible outcomes, adjusted for their relative probabilities, is what gives you run expectancy.
So, that was basically the long way of saying yes. When the runner is given credit for a stolen base, they’re given credit for all the benefits of that stolen base, including not only the benefit of moving up a base, but also the benefit of eliminating the possibility of a GIDP.
That said, it should be noted that wOBA does NOT adjust for the lineup around you; it’s meant to be context neutral. So if you’re batting in front of someone who tends to ground into lots of double plays, clearly you get an extra benefit from stealing second than if you’re on base in front of someone who hardly ever grounds into a double play. Again, wOBA doesn’t take this into account, so it is possible to have some additional gains there that aren’t measured.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
That said, it should be noted that wOBA does NOT adjust for the lineup around you; it’s meant to be context neutral. So if you’re batting in front of someone who tends to ground into lots of double plays, clearly you get an extra benefit from stealing second than if you’re on base in front of someone who hardly ever grounds into a double play.
And, on the flip side of that, it doesn’t add extra weight to an out created via CS when your #3 and 4 hitters are due up and there’s a better chance you could have been driven in if you hadn’t tried to steal.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
Not only is there risk of CS, but a double should advance a runner farther than a single + CS
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Agreed. It's hard to score from first on a single.
That’s why wOBA is about the best measure currently available. Though the runs expectancy context means you can’t calculate it on the fly like OPS.
I know C is his position
But “C. Derrick Alfonso” would be a great name.
Failure is just success rounded down.
I think it's pretty cool that the Brewers best two guys at getting on base
are helping Gomez get better at that aspect of his game.
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
I'd love to hear more about what Fielder is doing to help
Because the ways Fielder gets on base don’t really have much in common with the ways Gomez is likely to do it.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
It's more along the lines of:
“seriously, get on base. You know what I did to Manny”
Shruggity
by Mykenk on Apr 1, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Did Mykenk use both the title and the body?
Yes…he did.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Apr 1, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Walking?
I mean, I guess Fielder gets pitched around more than Gomez will, but he still gets plenty of walks with his plate vision.
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
Not sure about that
I would hazard a guess that if a pitcher falls behind in the count with Fielder at the plate, he’ll more than likely walk him instead of giving him something catching too much of the plate… with Gomez, the risk isn’t nearly as great.
This is what I was going to say.
Weeks and Fielder walk a lot. Gomez doesn’t seem to be working on taking pitches, since his OBP is only 20 points higher than his BA. Now, this could just be a spring training thing where they feel it’s more important to level his swing out than work on taking pitches. But we’ll see.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
That attempted bunt against his shift
Fielder has experience in Gomez’ field of expertise. He also has 2 inside-the-park HRs.
Don't the stats indicate
that plate discipline isn’t something that can be taught?
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
Welch is a surprise cut
But I guess after 2 years at AA they don’t see him moving up to 3A so there he goes.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Yeah
I assumed he’d move up too, since he’s been relatively successful, but apparently he ran into the same wall Burns did.
That's all I've got for you today, unless you're interested in some Chris Capuano/Tom Haudricourt Fan Fiction.
In that case
wouldn’t it make sense to try to trade these guys? Just because they don’t fit in the Brewers system, doesn’t mean someone else might have space for them and the Brewers would get some Rookie-level outfielder or something?
Or are most of these cuts just because there isn’t any room in the farm system at all?
It's possible they did try to trade these guys
but there weren’t any takers. I’m sure if they aren’t high in the Brewers farm system, there’s not going to be much (if any) demand for these guys elsewhere… at least not enough for teams willing to give up someone in a trade.
3.96 ERA
thats not good enough to try the kid out in AAA?
by rootsmaneuver on Apr 1, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Other cuts trivia
Justis and Sandoval were minor league rule 5 draft picks.
Failure is just success rounded down.
No mention of
Aroldis Chapman “converting” to an Outfielder?
Probably just a whim and wont last, but the Reds FO must be wondering what kind of head case they just invested $30mm in.
I know it wasnt going to be opening day, but I was sure he was going to be pitching in Great American Ballpark by years end.
Oh backtocali....
I think someone might have played an April Fools joke on you
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Apr 1, 2010 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Keith Law on Narveson:
For a AAA team, sure. RT @Justink8996: @keithlaw what is your Outlook on Naverson? Is he a legit 4-5?
Shruggity
Fortunately we don't have a Naverson on our roster
I wonder where Naverson plays. N*arve*son is better than a 4-5 in AAA.
I wonder if he's seen him this spring?
I’m not necessarily doubting Law in this case, just wondering if he came to that conclusion after watching this spring or is going off one of his old scouting reports.
Get a ife broseph
catching that lightning in the bottle
Some guys have it. Some guys don’t. Some guys lose it. If you’ve been puttering about long enough here, you may remember that the Brewers had 3 LHP starters as non-roster invitees to spring training last year: Lindsay Gulin, Sam Narron, and Chris Narveson. Gulin had a fabulous 2008 with Nashville. Narron and Narveson were both kind of meh. (Narron walked less batters than Narveson, but also struck out less.)
A year later, Narveson is heading north in the Brewers’ bullpen, Narron was signed as a minor league free agent by Detroit and will be providing rotational filler in Toledo, and Gulin is apparently playing in Taiwan.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.13.2012 at 7:02 PM CST)
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