The Cost of Throwing Suppan
by Jordan M on Apr 14, 2010 9:53 PM CDT
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PrintCourtesy of some basic projections, we know that Jeff Suppan is projected for a 5.43 ERA by CHONE this season. Manny Parra projects at 4.90, and Chris Narveson at 4.18 (though as a reliever, which carries a substantial benefit, he's closer to 4.7 or 4.8 as a starter). For clarity, I will just use Parra.
Parra .544 runs allowed per inning
Suppan: .603 runs allowed per inning
For every nine innings, that's an expected difference of a half a run (easy way to check this is to look at the ERA). Is that a lot? It doesn't seem like it. But it is.
If you believe the projections are accurate indicators of how these two pitchers will perform this year, giving Suppan about 150 innings instead of Parra would be a difference of about 9 runs, or about 1 total win on the field. That might not sound like a whole lot, but that win is a big amount, and generally teams pay about $5 million on the free agent market to upgrade their team by one win.
So if there's a point to this short jumble, it is that though it sucks to see Suppan scheduled to pitch tomorrow, a few starts will not make or break the team. The danger is continuing to run him out there. I don't know where the cutoff is. The flip side is that there is little doubt that every start Suppan makes is costing the team runs, and wins.
So hopefully management comes to their senses and realizes that Suppan has no real value in the starting rotation, or on the team, except as an injury fill-in. However, I'm going to avoid getting too worked up about Suppan being the starter (for a while, at least). Here's to him proving everyone wrong and coming out striking people out and avoiding walks with great command and control tomorrow.
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Sigh
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 14, 2010 9:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think that sums it up nicely
dickie_thon: Third baseman Bill Hall / Watches the third strike go by / Gamel grabs his glove
The real travesty is that Manny Parra isn't allowed out of his Skinnerian box
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2010 10:29 PM CDT reply actions
That was Skinner, right?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2010 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm going with 4.1 IP 5 ER
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Apr 14, 2010 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions
This is realistic.
A quality start is not.
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Apr 14, 2010 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions
5.2 IP
1 ER, 2 K, 2 BB. He’ll get in trouble in the sixth but whoever relieves him will work out of a jam. Then he’ll probably have another good start next week. You know to build managements confidence in him.
So he can stay in the rotation the rest of the season and post a 6.00 ERA.
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
by Noah Jarosh on Apr 14, 2010 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions
My prediction
Suppan manages an amazingly good start (6-7 IP, 0-1 ER), which will firmly entrench him in the rotation even though the rest of the season he will be terrible.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
1.2 IP
10^5 BB
"I'll be glad to have Ryan help if he wants to. I'll give him a badge and he can be my deputy."
-Sheriff Melvin
by sowingwildoats on Apr 14, 2010 11:46 PM CDT reply actions
100000 walks?
why not shoot for one walk per dollar owed this year.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 15, 2010 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions
Suppan will pitch decently
He’ll go like 5-6 innings, give up 4-5 runs. The Brewers will be down about 5-3. They’ll mount a comeback to go up 6-5, and then give up a walk off home run.
"But we all know that games aren't played on paper...they are played by little men inside our TV sets." --Kenny Mayne
by dishingoutdimes on Apr 14, 2010 11:48 PM CDT reply actions
So, is it better to have a disater right away so they are forced to deal with him?
Or, have a mediocre start that allows him to stick around for a bit. I’m convinced at some point he will fall apart.
At this point I'd rather get all the disasters out of the way early
Then it’s only uphill from there.
"But we all know that games aren't played on paper...they are played by little men inside our TV sets." --Kenny Mayne
by dishingoutdimes on Apr 14, 2010 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions
As much as I want a win tomorrow, and want to root for any member of this team
We might be better off if he fails miserably out of the gate.
by Zorakathura on Apr 15, 2010 12:26 AM CDT up reply actions
ahh...the 2009 Braden Looper strategy
problem is, he was in the rotation all season.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 15, 2010 6:31 AM CDT up reply actions
The problem with that
If Suppan gives up eight in the first two innings, and the Brewers score seven over the same time frame to stay in the game, Suppan might be left in to “see if he settles down.”
Now that's great tasting chicken!
An Additional Cost
We’re using up one of Stetter’s options, which could lead to a situation like we have with Narvy and Manny.
That likely won't be an issue.
After three years of major league service time, a player has the right to refuse an option. Stetter entered 2010 with 1.120 years, so unless he’s held down in AAA long term he’ll finish this year with roughly 2.
If I’m doing my math right, this is his second option. So he’ll enter next season with one year where he could be optioned, and one option remaining.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
It's five years before the player has the right to refuse an option
Players have to clear “option waivers” between 3-5 years. I don’t know that anyone’s been claimed off option waivers.
Failure is just success rounded down.
It's worse than that
That might not sound like a whole lot, but that win is a big amount, and generally teams pay about $5 million on the free agent market to upgrade their team by one win.
You realize the Brewers are paying $12 million to downgrade by a win, right?
sigh
I don’t know if I’ve ever rooted against the Brewers for any reason, but I’m sad to say that I really, really hope they’re down by 5+ runs after two innings. I’ll certainly cheer for the Rally Lobster after he’s pulled, but until Suppan has been rocked, I’ll be rooting against him. Let’s see who Pinella rests. He doesn’t really have to put his major league crew on the field to compete in this game.
Remember performance determines how long he's in the rotation
As long as the other options are giving up a hit or two occasionally, Suppan is safe.
Failure is just success rounded down.
Using this thread to point out other flaws in the pitching staff
There’s a spot open on the 40-man roster for a waiver claim or to purchase a contract, but right now the only relievers who can be called up without a 40-man roster move are Stetter and John Axford. Doesn’t that seem awfully thin, especially from the right side?
Failure is just success rounded down.
Barring something unforseen
I’m guessing that 40th spot has Chris Smith’s name on it.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Or whatever high-priced once-useful aging veteran is placed on waivers first
Failure is just success rounded down.
We need a new stat
Something that represents the opposite of a quality start – where a pitcher gives up at least five runs and pitches fewer innings than runs allowed, assuring the loss and taxing the bullpen at the same time. I humbly suggest we name it the Suppan.
For example, in 2009 Jeff had 10 quality starts, and 8 Suppans.
KL linked to "disaster starts" in yesterday's Mug
Runs > IP = “Disaster start”
I would be fine with nick-naming those “Suppans.” I don’t think it needs a 5-run minimum, unless you add an “or” clause regarding baserunners reaching safely.
At least 5 runs or WHIP > 2.5?
How many starts have a WHIP > 2.5?
I suppose you're right
A start is still a disaster if they’ve given up more runs than IP at any point, I was just looking for the starts where by the time they were done the game was out of reach. But your method includes more starts where damage is done to the bullpen. 7 runs over 6 2/3 innings isn’t as bad as 3 runs over 1 1/3 – those kind of starts really grind down the staff.
Holy moley
Suppan made 30 starts last season, and a full seven of them qualified as disaster starts (ER>IP), and that’s not counting a couple that he just missed by 0.1 IP.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Here's another Suppan stat
For starting pitches who made at least 30+ starts in a season, Suppan had the eighth least IP of all time, with just 161.2
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Suppan's line
3.2IP 7ER 4BB 1K
Free agent tomorrow.
"My plan is my plan," Yost said.
I don't think that's possible considering Suppan has a contract with the Brewers.
He might be DFA’d, but I don’t know if that means he’s a free agent.
if he refuses assignment
it does
unless he’s traded before he gets a chance to declare free agency.
by PagsBrewCrew on Apr 15, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
He would have to clear waivers, which officially takes more than a day
Failure is just success rounded down.
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
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Pittsburgh
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21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
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Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
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