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Wednesday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while choosing your companions wisely.

With Prince Fielder's eighth inning home run and Hells Bells blaring, the Brewers looked well on their way to their 23rd consecutive home win over the Pirates last night, but that all changed in a hurry when Trevor Hoffman allowed five earned runs and turned a save situation for the Brewers into a non-save situation for the Pirates.

With the loss, Hoffman now has three blown saves and just three converted saves, and #600 seems infinitely far away. Adam McCalvy says the Brewers will stick with Hoffman, but notes that the organization is looking into his pitch selection. Hoffman has been using his changeup less than usual in the early going.

After last night's loss, the internet was abuzz with reaction to Hoffman's blown save:

Before I say what I'm about to say, let me go ahead and acknowledge that I'm not usually the guy who says things like this. With that said, I think everyone needs to take a deep breath.

I cursed as loudly as anyone when Hoffman allowed two home runs last night. If you've been reading the Mug, you'll recall that I expressed concerns about Hoffman's preparation weeks ago, after his second spring training appearance. But at this point I think the sample size is a little too small to reach a full conclusion on whether or not he's done. He's pitched eight innings. They're eight high-profile innings, but they're still just eight innings.

Certainly, there are some merits to questions about Hoffman's pitch selection, but I'd caution the sample size on that too. Hoffman has thrown 153 pitches this season, and roughly 18% have been changeups, down from 30% last season. That's approximately 18 changeups he hasn't thrown, or slightly more than two per outing. To me, it's too early to get worked up over that. And for what it's worth, his fastball velocity is holding steady at 85.5 mph, same as it was last year and higher than it was from 2005-2007.

I'm not saying Hoffman's leash should be infinitely long. He's a 42-year-old pitcher and he obviously will regress eventually. But i don't think it's time to start building a crossbow out of office supplies just yet.

Other notes from the field:

Meanwhile, Hoffman's rough outing wasn't yesterday's biggest (or even worst) news. In a sudden development yesterday afternoon, the team announced that Bob Uecker will have surgery on Friday to repair a leaking aortic valve in his heart and will be out for the next 10-12 weeks (FanShot). The surgery, which will be performed by Dr. Alfred Nicolosi at Froedtert Hospital, has been described as a "routine procedure."

In the day since the announcement, Uecker has received well wishes from all over baseball and a standing ovation before last night's game at Miller Park. He was still with the team last night and will call today's series finale against the Pirates before the Brewers leave for the west coast. After today's game, Davey Nelson will join Cory Provus in the booth on an interim basis, with Provus doing all nine innings of play by play and Nelson adding commentary (FanShot).

Speaking of today's game, we're only a couple of hours away from first pitch and the 2010 starting debut of Chris Narveson. Tyler Barnes has today's lineup, with Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart getting the start in the outfield.

I don't know why I'm so optimistic today. If you're not, here's a link for you: Ed Price of MLB FanHouse has some quotes from an unidentified scout saying the Brewers are in trouble, and noting a lack of velocity from Dave Bush.

Meanwhile, no one is questioning Yovani Gallardo, at least at the plate: With a three RBI performance Monday, Gallardo became just the second pitcher ever to drive in three runs three times in his first 59 appearances.

So Bless You Boys has crunched the numbers and ranked Gregg Zaun as baseball's sixth worst defensive catcher over the 2002-2009 seasons. That doesn't smell right to me: Zaun hasn't exactly been outstanding defensively as a Brewer, but he looks better than "historically bad," at least to my eyes.

We're talking about the possibility of a Prince Fielder trade a lot lately, but the question of where he might go remains unanswered. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune raises the possibility that the White Sox could be interested, and could have some pieces the Brewers might be interested in.

In the minors:

  • Chris Capuano took a nice first step in his return to action, throwing five scoreless innings for Brevard County last night. He allowed just three hits, no walks and struck out five.
  • Wisconsin Sports Tap has a great look around the Brewer farm system, with notes on 25 potential impact players.
  • Baseball Intellect has released their list of baseball's top 100 prospects, with Brett Lawrie #37, Eric Arnett and Jonathan Lucroy honorably mentioned, and Jake Odorizzi listed as a player to watch. The Brewers are one of just four teams with only one player in the top 100.
  • Andy Seiler of MLB Bonus Baby has a new mock draft, and has the Brewers selecting Florida high school righty A.J. Cole with the 14th pick.

Power Rankings and whatnot:

  • SB Nation has the Brewers 17th, up three spots from last week.
  • Bloguin has the Brewers at 20th in their rankings.
  • Vegas Watch has the Brewers at 13.8 or 16.8% to make the playoffs. I can't tell what I'm looking at there.

Yesterday I mentioned an incident in Monday's game where a young boy was hit in the head by Alcides Escobar's broken bat. You might be happy to know that young Jackson Beltoya, the boy in question, is fine. You might be disappointed to discover that he's a Cubs fan.

Around baseball:

Athletics: Placed pitcher Brett Anderson on the DL with a forearm strain and elbow irritation.
Cardinals: Signed infielder Aaron Miles to a minor league deal.
Orioles: Designated reliever Wilfrido Perez for assignment.
Rangers: Placed outfielder Nelson Cruz on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Rays: Catcher Dioner Navarro has been suspended for two games for making contact with an umpire on Friday.
Rockies: Designated pitcher Al Albuquerque for assignment.

With all of this week's contract extension discussion, here's something to consider: The Book Blog has a look at the premise that players retained by their original team tend to age and develop better. In theory it makes sense: A player's original team knows more about the player's health issues and abilities, so they're in a better position to make the right decision.

If you're in or near Detroit today and you hear an audible "thud," it might be Justin Verlander's arm falling off. Verlander threw 121 pitches last night (in just six innings), marking the second consecutive start where he's thrown at least 120. Jason Beck notes that he's only the fifth pitcher ever to throw 120 or more and last six or fewer innings in back to back starts. So far this season there have been nine games where a pitcher threw at least 120 pitches: Verlander (and Ubaldo Jimenez) have two of them.

By the way, Randy Wolf's 116 pitches thrown last night were the 20th most thrown in a game this season.

As time goes by, it's becoming increasingly clear that some leagues get the value of social media, but Major League Baseball is not one of them. MLB.com has banned their writers from using their Twitter accounts for non-baseball topics.

Today's story that has nothing to do with anything but fascinated me anyway is about Roy Oswalt, who spent the last few days cleaning up after a tornado destroyed his family's home in Mississippi.

I'm not a big NFL guy, but I'm still captivated by the incredible work done by NFL Films. Follow this link for some songs that will be stuck in your head all day.

On this day in 1961, Warren Spahn pitched a no-hitter against the Giants, winning 1-0. It was Spahn's 290th career win.

And one year ago on this day, Trevor Hoffman saved his first game as a Brewer, career save #555.

I struck out on birthdays today.

With the afternoon game today, you might have some free time tonight. If you're not doing anything else, maybe you should try making a 9x13 Snickers.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to file an amendment.

Drink up.

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Thanks, Brewers Bar

for the PA by PA account of Trevor’s blown saves…but I don’t need them since all three games were on our season tickets and I saw each one in person. Except the Doumit GS last night, when I had my eyes closed because I had a bad feeling.

I’m ready for a game that falls somewhere between “crazy awkward blowout” and “another kick to the jewels.”

You've got a couple screws missin' up in your toolbox, if you think that you'll stop this man from hittin' moonshots.

by hawing on Apr 28, 2010 10:20 AM CDT reply actions  

Oswalt

I was going to ask whether he used the bulldozer he got from the Astros and, lo and behold: “Using the bulldozer McLane awarded him after the Astros made the World Series for the first time in 2005, Oswalt leveled what was left of the house, and the rubble was burned.”

Awesome.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Apr 28, 2010 10:32 AM CDT reply actions   1 recs

Ha, my first thought was about the bulldozer as well. Glad he was able to use it.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Apr 28, 2010 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Following the "Brewers are in trouble" link...

… is a note on the teams that might still be looking for a 1st Baseman when the rapidly dwindling pool of studs at that position hits free agency simultaneously. Fanhouse notes that if the Cubs re sign Derek Lee, the only big money club left that might be looking for help at the position is the Red Sox.

I don’t want to lose him, but I could live with the Red Sox. I’ve always liked the Red Sox, even when the Brewers were in the old American League East. But I’m saying right now that if the Cubs let Lee go (and I think they both should and will) and if Fielder hits free agency and signs with the Cubs, I’m done with the MLB.

I’ve been a Packer fan since I was 5 and a Brewer fan since I was 9. The whole Favre in Minnesota thing was hard to take last year, but seeing Fielder in a Cubs uniform would be infinitely worse. The Packers let Favre go because they liked Rodgers better (and I agree with that decision), bad luck and spite eventually landed him on a rival’s roster. But Fielder would be leaving with his best years in front of him. More importantly, he’d be leaving a team that wants to keep him around, but can’t because of the inequities in the MLB’s economic structure.

If that happens, then I quit. I’ve known since 1992 that the MLB could give a damn about fans of teams located outside of Chicago and the two coasts. I’ve mostly been able to ignore that and enjoy watching the game anyway, even when I knew my Brewers were fielding a AAA squad. But if baseball’s inequities force the Brewers to lose one of the best players in their history to a division rival, then I’m out. I’ll get my baseball fix watching the T-Rats and my son’s little league games.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 28, 2010 10:37 AM CDT reply actions   2 recs

Rec'd

For C*bs.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 28, 2010 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree.

Definitely stealing that one.

by Rubie Q on Apr 28, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

The Red Sox have Youkilis through 2012 and possibly 2013...

but I guess they could consider moving him to DH if they let Ortiz go.

What about the White Sox, Angels, Mets, Tigers and Dodgers? All three could use Fielder’s services.

by sjlee on Apr 28, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

Would the Tigers use Fielder exclusively as a DH?

Isn’t Cabrera strictly a first baseman at this point?

by Rubie Q on Apr 28, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good point...

I forgot that Cabrera hasn’t played 3B much the past couple years. I don’t think they’d probably pay Fielder that much to be a full-time DH.

by sjlee on Apr 28, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Could they move Youkilis to third? That’s what my Red Sox fan relative suggested, but I don’t follow them closely enough to know.

by drezdn on Apr 28, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Probably could...

Youkilis has played alot at 3B, but that would mean letting Beltre go.

by sjlee on Apr 29, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

You're not an impartial Mariners observer.

I’ve heard you on the radio. You’re drunk on Jack Z Kool-Aid.

by Rubie Q on Apr 28, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

That’s not looking too hot right now, either. Alas, I consider the Mariners my AL team. It’s been an awesome baseball season thus far.

"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"

by Noah Jarosh on Apr 28, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Possibly

I didn’t list any teams whose team payroll isn’t over $100M since adding Fielder would likely take a big chunk.

by sjlee on Apr 29, 2010 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

Not the Angels

Unless they moved Kendry Morales to a corner outfield spot, or Prince was willing to be a (nearly) full-time DH. But I don’t think Arte Moreno wants to spend $25M/year for a full-time DH.

by Brew Angel on Apr 28, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's also possible they don't resign Morales

or only sign him to a short contract. He’s a FA after this season (as well as being another Boras client).

by sjlee on Apr 29, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

Also off of that link

Anyone else get the feeling that the “scout” is less of a scout and more of a cubs homer?

After talking about how bad the brewers are, farther down in the article he mentions how Zambrano could be much better coming out of the pen than he did on Saturday, and that Ramirez is about to come out of his funk.

Maybe I am just being paranoid because I hate the cubs

by Jeo on Apr 28, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

I completely agree with you.

Other than the being done with MLB part. Baseball is a foul temptress, but I could never leave her.

"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"

by Noah Jarosh on Apr 28, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions  

I know we dont see eye to eye on this issue

I would never leave the love for the game no matter what. But if you had my point of view, then you would still like Fielder, or whoever leaves the team, and enjoy what they do with that new team. Little more interesting when you can look at any team and find players you like, and still enjoy going to see them play or watch on tv, no matter what team they are on. Just my opinion.

I personally feel that the Marlins MO for running the team, as a direct result of the economic inefficiencies you speak of, is a more exciting way to be a fan. They make it work, and there are new faces almost every year, yet they keep winning. You get your Hanley Ramirez type of fix in the big all star locked up longer term, you have a stud pitcher in JJ as well to a similar situation (Braun=Ramirez, Gallardo=Johnson) and you have a handful of players with upside potential and something to look forward to.

by backtocali on Apr 28, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

Teams like the Marlins and Rays

are great examples of small market teams that are incredibly well run. But no matter how well run they are, they have cycles of winning and losing that correspond to when the top prospects come and go. And anytime they miss on an elite looking prospect or 2 it sets them back several years. If Joe Mauer suffered a severe injury and his career was over, the Twins would be terrible for the next 8 years. But if the same thing happened to Jeter or Teixeira or A-Rod the Yankees would still expect to win the World Series.

Furthermore, while it is probably very exciting to be a fan of a well run small market team like the Marlins, I bet most of their fans would happily trade places with a Yankee fan that got to experience a championship caliber team year after year.

If MLB was structured in a way to make financial parity a reality (as the NBA and NFL get much closer to doing) it would still be exciting to be a fan of well run teams like the Marlins or Rays and doesn’t have the downside of watching a star player leave for no other reason than one team happens to exist in a market that has more people and can thusly generate more revenue.

by dtmeyers on Apr 28, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

That would be easier.

But I was a Brewers fan first and became a baseball fan second, which is not the case for most folks around brewcrewball. I’ll always love baseball, but I don’t have to love a league that thinks I don’t matter.

I’m a casual. I know that and I’m ok with it. But the MLB needs casuals if it wants to maintain its status as one of the big 3 sports in the US. The Brewers, for instance, aren’t going to sell 3 million seats a year without the bulk of those being casuals like me, and when casual fans conclude that their team can’t compete, or isn’t being given a fair chance to compete, they walk away. I’ve never done that because I loved baseball too much. I’ve watched as MLB has, sometimes intentionally and sometimes apathetically, allowed over half of the teams in its league to become marginalized. I’ve spent much of the past 20 years trying to overlook that, and now that I’ve had a taste of being legitimately competitive in the MLB again, I’m not inclined to go back.

I knew (and know) that the Brewers couldn’t sustain their success the way the big market teams have the opportunity to do (if their front office is good enough, but if the system creates a circumstance where the Brewers, through no fault of their own, are hurt TWICE by Fielder’s departure (in losing him to a team they have to compete directly with for a playoff spot ever year), then (unintentional though it might be) the league is essentially rubbing my face in the unfairness inherent in their system. And if that happens, I’m gone.

I almost typed that maybe the MLB doesn’t care if I leave. Haha. Of course they don’t. They only care if enough casuals like me leave. And maybe in the long run they don’t care about that either. Maybe we’re destined for a major league system that includes only a half dozen teams in the US, with another half dozen scattered around in Mexico, Central America and the Carribean (and maybe one in Canada), with a playoff or WS agreement with Japan, South Korea and a handful of other international leagues. If so, the only baseball in places like Milwaukee will be minor league or independents. If that’s the destiny of baseball, then people like me don’t matter anyway. But if the plan or hope is to maintain a nationwide competitive and profitable set of leagues in the US, they may have to do it without people like me.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 28, 2010 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

Hoffmann

The thing that bothers me the most about Hoffmann is that he seems to be afraid of his changeup after Stavinoa (sp?) hit that home run from his knee.

Hoffmann getting hit by Pujols and Holliday is no big deal.- they are 2 of the top 10 hitters in the league (or so). But getting hit by Ronny Cedeno and Doumit? COME ON!

Put this guy in the “They need to consider other options” Camp.

by BrewCrewBrian on Apr 28, 2010 10:47 AM CDT reply actions  

Look at the bright side

The Crew will have a supertanker full of money freed up next year

Suppan Gone 12.75 Mil
Halls contract Gone 7.1 Mil
Prince most likely Gone 10.5 mil
Hoffman Gone 7.5 mil

Just these 4 will free up $37.85 Mil

Add in the 4 Mil they will save by buying out Riske and you have over $40 Million freed up.

Hopefully Melvin will not be around to spend it.

kumbaya my lord kumbaya :)

by WSB Chris on Apr 28, 2010 11:16 AM CDT reply actions  

The pessimistic take

They will some how find a way to give all that money to Braden Looper.

by drezdn on Apr 28, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

BuzzKill

Dude you are harshing my mellow ;)

kumbaya my lord kumbaya :)

by WSB Chris on Apr 28, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

$25M booked for next year.

Cots spreadsheet on it

I thought we differed $4M of Wolfs contract to next year. So I think the numbers are off a bit already.

by SgtClueLs on Apr 28, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

Isn't Hoffman signed through 2011?

IIRC, they gave him a 2-year contract.

But my proxy server at work blocks Cots Contracts, so I can check for sure.

by Brew Angel on Apr 28, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

OK. I knew there was something in place for 2011.

But not guaranteed. That’s good, if he doesn’t get it together soon.

Back at the beginning of the season, I had this fantasy that he’d be throwing his 600th save in San Diego this weekend when I’m there in person. Would’ve been cool. Of course, it would also be cool if he’d convert more than 50% of his save opportunities!

by Brew Angel on Apr 28, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

With the way Hoffman has been pitching...

I could see him limping through this season to get past 600, then retire.

by sjlee on Apr 29, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think many players would walk away from the second year of that contract...

… but Hoffman might be one of the few that would consider it if he becomes convinced that he’s ineffective. I doubt it, but it’s possible.

What begins in fear usually ends in folly.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Apr 29, 2010 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Al Albuquerque

I kind of hope his first name is short for Albuquerque. Failing that, I hope the Dodgers sign him and send him to their AAA club.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on Apr 28, 2010 11:33 AM CDT reply actions  

Let me guess.

It’s located in El Paso?

"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"

by Noah Jarosh on Apr 28, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

So close!

Round Rock.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 28, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wait, did I hear this right?

If the Brewers record a save today, Jose Hernandez gets free cable?

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Apr 28, 2010 11:56 AM CDT reply actions  

You did hear that correctly

I shudder to think it’s that Jose Hernandez, though. And even if it was, no save, no free cable.

You've got a couple screws missin' up in your toolbox, if you think that you'll stop this man from hittin' moonshots.

by hawing on Apr 28, 2010 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

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