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Options to Replace Davis in the Short Term

The Fanshot below breaks the news that Doug Davis was in the emergency room last night with a treatable virus, but will be out for a while depending on whether the Brewers backdate the DL stint to Davis's last start and how they juggle the rotation. Either way, they will need to get two or three starts out of another pitcher while Davis recovers.

The first option is Manny Parra. He is also the best option. 20 innings out of the bullpen should not do a whole lot to change the team's evaluation of Parra, but it is hard not to notice when he puts up nearly 9 strikeouts and a shade under 2 walks per 9. He's also getting near 60% groundballs, which is fantastic. His fastball velocity is up, and he's throwing fewer changes and more curveballs-- something that he has also done during other successful periods in his past. His tERA, FIP, and actual ERA are all lower than 4.09, and ZiPS projects him to have a 4.30 FIP the rest of the way as a starter. 

Jeff Suppan is also an option. I think it's been pretty clearly established why this is not a good idea. There's no reason to expect lower than a 5.5 ERA level of production out of him. And if the front office pulls out the "he's stretched out to start" excuse to justify giving Suppan another shot, I'm going to call shenanigans-- they just allowed Narveson to thow 130 pitches in a game in his fourth start of the year after pitching out of the pen for a few weeks.

Marco Estrada, Kameron Loe, and Chuck Lofgren are also candidates to get called up from AAA to fill in as a starter in the short term. Adam Stern was called up today to fill Davis's roster spot, and could stay until the day another starter is needed (tomorrow or Tuesday, if the Brewers bump Gallardo up a day and have him throw on normal rest). Any are worthy of a start and are probably about equal to Suppan in terms of expected production.

It's difficult for me to avoid turning this into another post that ends up advocating giving Parra another shot, but I think it's pretty clear what the best move for the Brewers is in this situation. We'll have to wait for an official announcement, and in the meantime, let's go get Hamels tonight.

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"Any are worthy of a start and are probably about equal to Suppan in terms of expected production."

I don’t know if I agree with that. Marco Estrada seems to get no respect despite that fact that he’s put up consistently good numbers. He also has a 3.51 mle FIP right now in Nashville.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 16, 2010 5:56 PM CDT reply actions  

You had me at 60% ground balls

And if he doesn’t screw around and throws strikes, I’ll take Parra and 4 runs happily.

by nullacct on May 16, 2010 6:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Marco Estrada

If he makes it to the Brewers, there needs to be some Marco Estrada/Marco from Sealab crossover.

Marco: “I have the strength of a bear that has the strength of two bears!”

by drezdn on May 16, 2010 6:23 PM CDT reply actions   1 recs

the three AAA pitchers

are they on the 40 man, or is there room on the 40 man? or would someone have to go on 60-day or be DFAd?

by PagsBrewCrew on May 16, 2010 10:34 PM CDT reply actions  

No... only Estrada is on the 40-man roster.

Which is another reason he’ll ahead of the other two as far as being the person to fill Davis’ spot.

by sjlee on May 16, 2010 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Is there any reason to believe it won't be Suppan?

Sure, the numbers seem to indicate Suppan is the worst option available, but is there a reason Macha won’t choose to throw him? Is there anyone here that fully expects to see Parra or Estrada get a start or merely hopes they will? I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if it’s anyone other than Suppan, but I still think smart money is on The Walking Gascan.

by ecocd on May 16, 2010 11:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Parra not all that great

The fact of the matter is that in games against teams with good pitching, eating four or six runs from Manny is simply unacceptable. At this point, the Brewers could hold open tryouts for random dudes off the street, they could put on blindfolds and throw darts at pictures of all the available starters in the minors, or they could hire a trained monkey. Virus or no, it seems like Doug Davis tries his level best to lose every game he pitches in. One decent game against every other outing he’s had doesn’t justify keeping him on the team, so why not give some of the minor leaguers a chance to prove themselves on the big stage? It’s not like they could do worse…

Don’t even get me started on Suppan, he’s Doug Davis but with a larger contract. At least Dave Bush can squeeze out a decent start every once in awhile, even though the bullpen does their level best to give any lead he, Wolf, or Gallardo can maintain.

by jphamberlin on May 17, 2010 1:46 AM CDT reply actions  

Did you miss the "Old Vegas" exit?

I'm not arguing, I'm just offering a relentlessly contrarian point of view.

by Mykenk on May 17, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't like how we're accusing every new poster as being of the Old Vegas mindset

I think this poster is just a bit too depressed to be rational;)

In any case, I agree that Davis is shit and Suppan is bad too (I would say worse than Davis…but tomato/potato :P ). Bush has been the least run-supported starter and has been doing a fairly good job. And yeah, the bullpen has been underperforming, which started with Hoffman and Hawkins and has since had a ripple-effect (some pitchers not pitching enough to not be rusty, while others are throwing their arms off).

I don’t agree with the poster that many of the arms in the minors would be better than anything we have assembled in the bigs though – plus promoting some of them would require 40-man roster manipulations. it’s not like we can send Hoffmann down to AAA for a while.

by PagsBrewCrew on May 17, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

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