We had the thought come up recently about what the most frequent timing is for the dismissal of a manager. Forgetting for the moment whether or not a change should happen, and just assuming that one might be impending, does recent history of managerial moves point towards a common timing?

Here's the most recent moves from each team:

PHI 2004 Larry Bowa - fired with 2 games remaining in the season, Homestand, 4W, 8-2

ATL 1990 Russ Nixon - fired on offday during homestand, 1W, 3-7

FLA 2006 Joe Girardi - offseason move

WAS 2009 Manny Acta - All-Star break, 1L, 3-7

NYM 2008 Willie Randolph - fired one game into road trip, 1W, 4-6

CIN 2007 Jerry Narron - fired on offday during homestand, 1L, 3-7

STL 1995 Joe Torre - fired on a game day during homestand, 1W, 5-5

CHC 2006 Dusty Baker - offseason move

PIT 2007 Jim Tracy - offseason move

MIL 2008 Ned Yost - fired on a game day during homestand, 1L, 3-7

HOU 2009 Cecil Cooper - fired before start of homestand, 7L, 2-8

LAD 2007 Grady Little - offseason move

SDP 2006 Bruce Bochy - offseason move

SFG 2006 Felipe Alou - offseason move

COL 2009 Clint Hurdle - fired on offday during homestand, 3L, 4-6

ARI 2009 Bob Melvin - fired before start of homestand, 1L, 4-6

TBR 2005 Lou Pinella - offseason move

NYY 2007 Joe Torre - offseason move

TOR 2008 John Gibbons - fired on gameday during road trip, 5L, 3-7

BOS 2003 Grady Little - offseason move

BAL 2007 Sam Perlozzo - fired at end of a homestand on day off, 8L, 2-8

MIN 2001 Tom Kelly - offseason move

DET 2005 Alan Trammell - offseason move

CHW 2003 Jerry Manuel - offseason move

KCR 2010 Trey Hillman - fired on a game day in the middle of a homestand, 1W, 2-8

CLE 2009 Eric Wedge - offseason move

TEX 2006 Buck Showalter - offseason move

OAK 2006 Ken Macha - offseason move

LAA 1999 Terry Collins - fired before the start of a homestand, 9L, 1-9

SEA 2008 John McLaren - fired at end of homestand on a day off, 1L, 3-7

The data confirms my suspicion.  If the change isn't made during the offseason a manager is most likely going to be fired during a homestand, and most likely at the start/end of the homestand or on a day off.

Since Mark A said Melvin isn't going to be fired tomorrow, the next firing-friendly day is Monday, June 7.