What to do with Kottaras and Lucroy long-term?

With Angel Salome’s major league potential falling increasingly into question, Lucroy has pretty much unanimously been declared the Brewers’ catcher of the future.  And, while I think Lucroy is awesome, do we potentially have a better catcher already on the team?  George Kottaras has been on a rampage this season, and I think it may be time to consider him as a potential starting catcher down the road:

1) 2010: Kottaras has been simply ridiculous to the extent he’s played this season.  Not only is Kottaras currently leading Brewers players with 50+ PA in OBP (by 42 points), OPS (by 47 points), and wOBA, but coming into today’s games he was twelfth in the major leagues in wOBA (players with 50+ PA).  He’s been doing all this with an extremely low .225 BABIP.  He also was raking in spring training.  Admittedly, it’s an extremely limited sample of only 70 PA, but considering that’s 40% of Kottaras’ career major league experience, it’s more than just a blip.

2) 2009: Kottaras’ previous experience in the majors came almost exclusively last season with the Red Sox (he also played a couple games in 2008).  His .247/.308/.387 line wasn’t that inspiring, but after a rough start to the season he was much better in the final months.  Furthermore, while he only hit 1 HR in 107 PA, part of that was due to an abnormally low HR/FB% of 2.9%.  Correcting that closer to the league average of around 10%, his HR total in 2009 would have been roughly in line with what he’s shown in 2010 (3 HR in 70 PA).  Kottaras probably will never be a huge power threat, though he did hit 22 HR in 395 PA back in 2008 at AAA Pawtucket.  Even factoring in his less-than-stellar 2009, Kottaras has raised his career major league wOBA to .349, which is more than solid for a starting catcher.

3) Kottaras used to be a top prospect.  He’s the former “catcher of the future” for the Padres, ranked as Baseball America’s #3 and #2 prospect in the organization in 2005 and 2006, respectively.  He was also considered the Red Sox catcher of the future by Baseball America and others following Kottaras’ trade to Boston before the 2007 season.

4) Kottaras’ minor league numbers have mostly supported the hype he had earlier in his career.  Comparing his major league equivalent (mle) offensive numbers to Lucroy’s prior to 2010:

Age 22 totals: 0.614 OPS for Kottaras versus 0.604 OPS for Lucroy

Age 23 totals: 0.625 OPS for Kottaras versus 0.634 OPS for Lucroy

A+ totals: 0.605 OPS for Kottaras versus 0.624 OPS for Lucroy

AA totals: 0.643/0.660 OPS for Kottaras versus 0.634 OPS for Lucroy

Kottaras also put up some not terrible numbers in four partial seasons at AAA, with mle OPS’s of 0.543/0.595/0.642 in ‘06/’07/’08.  Those aren't great seasons, though obviously looking at mle versus actual OPS makes it look worse, but they're decent enough that Kottaras' 2010 surge shouldn't be automatically written off.

5) How Kottaras compares to Lucroy defensively is less clear.  There aren’t very good metrics for catcher defense in the first place, much less for minor league catchers, and Kottaras is further complicated by the fact that he’s had a history of catching knuckleballers both in the majors and minors.  Scouting reports seem to be mixed on Kottaras’ defense (though not necessarily negative), so Lucroy might have the edge there.

6) The biggest knock against Kottaras at this point is his age, as he’s already 27 while Lucroy only turns 24 next month.  Nonetheless, Kottaras will still be under team control until at least 2014 (I don’t think he qualifies for super two status, does he?) and since he hasn’t had huge major league workloads, there’s no reason to think he’ll deteriorate by age 31.

In sum, Lucroy is still awesome, but Kottaras' awesome performance so far this season has to at least open up the conversation about his long-term potential; starter or backup.  He used to be regarded as an organizational catcher of the future, and if he keeps up hitting fairly well the Brewers may find themselves with two (three?) viable young starting catchers in their system.  It's a small sample, and obviously Kottaras won't be nearly this good for very long, but we should at least consider that his 2010 to date isn't just a fluke.  And it's not necessarily the pipe-dream of finding McGehee Part II, because Kottaras was always solid in the minors.

Even with only 70 PA, I think we can at least give credit to Melvin at this point for making another outstanding pickup.