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2011 Payroll Questions


Hello BCB,

I was having a conversation with one of our fellow brewer fans and I was trying to figure out how much money we will have going into the 2011 offseason. Below is what I constructed and please feel free to correct anything I have wrong

Star-divide

Money coming off the books:

Jeff Suppan 12,750,000

Bill Hall 8,525,000

Trevor Hoffman 7,500,000

David Riske 4,500,000

Doug Davis 4,250,000

Jody Gerut 2,000,000

I believe that those are the main contracts and again feel free to dispute anything wrong on here but that adds up to 39.525 million give or take a few million for renewing contracts I'd imagine. Also I am of the opinion that Prince will be traded for pitching prospects so add another 11 million to that list. Am I missing something here or will we have close to 50 million possibly to spend this offseason?

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Buy out of Zaun

at $250,000 assuming he ends up having surgery.

"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10

by MadtownTim on May 27, 2010 8:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Not all of that money is coming off the books (Suppan has a $2 million buyout, for example)

There are abotu $4 million in buyouts (assuming Suppan/Hoffman/Riske/Davis/Zaun are bought out) and then arbitration raises to probably seven players (Weeks, Gomez, Hart, Inglett, Coffey, Villanueva, Parra)

Assuming Fielder is traded, I worked it out to around $48 million committed next season, so depending on what the payroll is in 2011 the Brewers could have anywhere between $20-$40 million to spend.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 27, 2010 8:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Possibilities

So if we give most of our pen to Coffey, CV, Axford, Estrada, Parra, and Braddock is it safe to assume we could go after a Cliff Lee or Brandon Webb

Ring Out Ahoya!

by bleedbluegold03 on May 27, 2010 8:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

Plenty of relievers to fill out the bullpen, though Melvin will probably want to sign a “proven” closer (bleh) instead of going with Hawkins/Villanueva/Axford/Braddock or whoever. Assuming Prince is traded, and assuming he gets at last one player who will be major-league ready in 2011 (either 1B or SP) then the team will have up to $40 million to spend on two starters (either a 1B/SP or two SP), a closer, and a couple bench players.

So yeah, they conceivably have the money to go after any of the free agent starting pitchers.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 27, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh man

Way too much risk in Webb for my liking

Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 28, 2010 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

assuming they tender everyone who they can offer arbitration to

and let all the old guys walk, how many “holes” would that leave?

by warwick5s on May 27, 2010 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Closer (not really a hole that can’t be filled internally, but most likely a hole for Melvin)
1B
2x SP (assuming one of Parra/Narveson/Estrada/etc. can be the fifth starter)
1x Bench IF (assuming Inglett takes the other spot)
1x Bench OF (assuming Cain or another internal option takes the other spot)

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 27, 2010 9:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

two starters?

Is that assuming that they let Bush walk?

It seems like they really could fill a lot of these positions internally. Gamel at first, Axford / Braddock closer, Inglett and Heether? (or another year of Craiggers) Cain and Stern as your bench OF…

Image and video hosting by TinyPic

That seems like a team that would be just as “good” as the team this year, and depending on how good ? and ? are (perhaps they could pick up the mythical Someone Good) it could be quite decent.

by warwick5s on May 27, 2010 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I assumed Bush won’t be resigned (he’s a free agent after 2010), considering he has been pretty bad for a while and isn’t winning himself a job so far this season.

One of Axford/Braddock/Villanueva/Hawkins should be made closer, but do you realistically think Melvin would go that route? He’ll probably look to add a “veteran closer” through free agency.

The non-inglett bench IF spot will probably need to go to somebody who can play SS, can Heether be relied upon to play there? Both bench outfielders could go to internal options too, though Stern is kind of a fringe major leaguer and I could see him being released at some point this season even to make roster space.

Ideally Gamel takes over at first, but Gamel still has a lot to prove before he’s even back to where he was at this point last season. I find it extremely unlikely that he asserts himself enough in the remainder of 2010 to convince management to let him be the full-time 1B, especially since they don’t seem too high on him anymore to begin with.

Either way, some of those holes would be filled in a theoretical Fielder trade (probably a SP), which would give the Brewers quite a bit of cash to throw around this offseason. I’m becoming increasingly skeptical that a Fielder trade will happen this season though, making most of this discussion moot.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 27, 2010 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure it will happen this season

but I’d be shocked if he didn’t get traded this offseason

Gerut could be resigned instead of Stern, seems like the team likes him well enough and he’d probably be cheap. I do like having all the backup outfielders being able to play center. Maybe Luis Cruz instead of Heether?

Either way, the only place they really need to fill externally is those two starting pitcher spots, and they should be able to get some decent arms between Fielder and the giant wad of cash they’ll have. Let’s just hope that there aren’t any “proven closers” on the market next offseason.

by warwick5s on May 27, 2010 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’d rather they sign some cheap free agents than go with guys like Stern and Cruz. As this season has shown, those bench guys can start seeing a lot of playing time pretty quick. I would only want Gerut back if he signs for less than the $2 million he’s making this year.

And, even if they go with Gamel at 1B (an unlikely assumption, at least as of right now) they’d probably sign a Branyan-type guy to split time.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on May 27, 2010 11:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Using the unlikely assumption

I wonder who would be out there among RH hitting 1B. I suppose they could double up on lefties at first.

Failure is just success rounded down.

by TheJay on May 27, 2010 11:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

is it bad

that I really want them to sign Adam Dunn if Prince walks?

by warwick5s on May 27, 2010 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

I would love if they trade Prince for pitching and signed Dunn

He’s always gotten on base at a good rate (career wOBA .385) and at first he doesn’t destroy his value with awful fielding like he did in the outfield. He’s still not a good defender, but the effect is muted. And the market for Adam Dunn is non-existent, signing him (at first, probably a 3-3.5 WAR player) for 10 million for a couple seasons is good value.

by dtmeyers on May 29, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

Gerut

I don’t think he’ll resign with the Brewers after this season. Considering how little he’s been used, he might go elsewhere with the hope of getting more playing time.

by sjlee on May 28, 2010 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

possibly have to figure

reduction in revenue from ticket sales

by PagsBrewCrew on May 27, 2010 9:02 PM CDT reply actions  

That's very green of you.

Mr. Gore will be proud.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on May 28, 2010 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

You've come to the right place

We did some analysis in the offseason for 2011’s payroll.

link

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on May 28, 2010 9:02 AM CDT reply actions  

A great thing about this year

The emergence of our young pitchers ensures that we can pay the bullpen essentially nothing for the next few years.

We will have to shell out money for Coffey and Villanueva, but Axford, Braddock, Narveson and Estrada can be had for pretty cheap. Good to put that money to use elsewhere, no more need to unecessary Claudio Vargas, LaTroy Hawkins singings.

by LosinCatmansLove on May 28, 2010 9:30 AM CDT reply actions  

Hawkins will be on the team next year because he's signed to a 2 year contract.

Hoffman still has a buyout clause.

However, who says Coffey and Villanueva will be on the team next year? They could be nice midseason trade candidates.

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on May 28, 2010 10:11 AM CDT up reply actions  

Instead of counting the money coming off the books

You’re better off adding up what the Brewers have already tied up for 2011. You’re forgetting buyout amounts as well as other guys who don’t have contracts beyond this season.

Plus, team payroll will likely go down next season, so you don’t really know how much the team has to play with.

by sjlee on May 28, 2010 9:48 AM CDT reply actions  

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