Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on May 4, 2010 9:35 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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Some things to read while casting a Smurfs movie. (h/t C.Trent Rosecrans)
All told, it was a pretty quiet off day yesterday. This wouldn't normally be a top story, but yesterday's biggest news might be a talk radio rumor that Ken Macha might be fired before the end of the current west coast road trip.
I haven't heard anything about a possible firing until today, but I do think it's possible that a shakeup could be in the works. If the Brewers go 3-7 on this road trip (winning one of three in LA and Arizona), they'll return home on Monday at 12-19 and might be ten games back of the Cardinals. If that happens, I can see them trying to shake things up and avoid the bad PR of getting booed at home again during a six game homestand against the Braves and Phillies.
Trevor Hoffman remains a hot topic of conversation, with Steve Sommer of FanGraphs the latest to weigh in on his struggles. Most of the stats cited in there are things we've discussed before, with one notable exception: We know Hoffman used his changeup less often early in the season, but the difference was even more pronounced (down from 32 to 10%) against right-handed batters. Again, the usual small sample size caveats apply, but I thought that was interesting.
You have until noon today to share your opinions on Macha, Hoffman and more in this week's BCB Tracking Poll. As of this writing, 245 people have weighed in. The more people we have participating, the more relevant the result, so please vote if you haven't yet. Results will be posted at 7 am tomorrow.
In one of the quieter slumps in recent memory, Rickie Weeks is batting just .103/.205/.179 over his last 39 ABs. I don't even recall hearing anything about it until he was roughly 1-for-25. With that said, he earned a spot in this week's THT Awards by striking out 15 times in 30 ABs.
With that said, it's all about to turn around: Casa de Machado has figured out what this season is missing.
With the manatee on board, clearly the Brewers are prepared to steamroll through Los Angeles. True Blue LA has a series preview. Ours will be up at 3 today.
Jim Edmonds still hasn't played since tweaking his back on Wednesday, and I haven't heard any updates on his availability for this week's series in LA. With that said, Plunk Everyone notes that he's the oldest batter to be hit by a pitch this season.
In the minors:
- MLB Depth Charts has Zach Braddock as a pitcher knocking down the door to the big leagues. Braddock has allowed just three hits while opening his AAA career with 11.1 scoreless innings, striking out 22.
- The Timber Rattlers made a transaction yesterday, and Cutter Dykstra is back with the team. The 2008 2nd round pick hasn't been seen above Rookie ball since getting off to a .212/.310/.303 start for Wisconsin last season.
Zach Braddock (along with Mat Gamel, hitting coaches and Alcides Escobar) was a topic of conversation in Adam McCalvy's latest inbox.
They're not really to the interesting part yet, but Brew City Sports has part one of a case study on Doug Melvin.
In Power Rankings:
- ESPN has the Brewers at 24 (down from 21).
- MLB FanHouse has the Brewers at 25 (down from 24).
- Craig Calcaterra has the Brewers at 25.
UmpBump continues their series compiling rankings of the greatest players of all time, and once again Milwaukee is well represented: At third base, Milwaukee Brave Eddie Matthews is #3 and Paul Molitor is #10.
And finally, here's a lesson in simple math: If you remove the games where the Brewers scored a lot of runs, their runs per game average goes down.
Around baseball:
Astros: Placed LHP Tim Byrdak on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Dodgers: Are expected to place Rafael Furcal on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Mariners: Released RHP Ricky Orta.
Another Justin Verlander start, another question about pitch counts: Verlander threw 120 pitches Sunday against the Angels, marking the third straight appearance where he's thrown at least that many. Jeff Lubbers of Baseball Daily Digest has a look at the significance.
The count is at seven: Last night's Yankees-Orioles game drew 41,571 fans, making Yankee Stadium the seventh major league park to set a record low attendance this season.
The MLB Draft is coming soon, and it can help you if you use it correctly. The Royals, as you might expect, are providing an example of how not to do it: They optioned Alex Gordon, the #2 pick in the 2005 draft, back to AAA yesterday. The 2005 draft was loaded with future major leaguers: The Nationals and Brewers selected Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun #4 and 5, respectively. Project Prospect has a look at Gordon and #3 pick Jeff Clement, who have yet to pan out.
Speaking of the draft, I'm starting to work on a plan for BCB's coverage of the 2010 draft and would love to hear your input. If you've got something you want to see (or don't want to see) regarding the draft, drop a note in the suggestion box or the comments of this post.
It's a short-ish (and not very good) Mug today, so you should have plenty of time to enter Beyond the Box Score's prediction contest, which this year has a cash prize. Last year I finished near the top, which is a sure sign that more or less any idiot has a chance.
On this day in 1980, the Brewers beat the White Sox 11-1. White Sox first baseman Mike Squires caught the final inning, becoming baseball's first left-handed catcher in over 20 years.
Happy birthday today to:
- 2004 Brewer Ben Grieve, who turns 34.
- 1999 Brewer Robinson Cancel, who also turns 34.
- 2003 Brewer Eddie Perez, who turns 42.
- 1984 Brewer manager Rene Lachemann, who turns 65.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm clearing my calendar for summer 2012. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans again)
Drink up.
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Really?
Marvel’s "The Avengers" is slated to come out May 4, board game adaptation "Battleship" leaves port May 25, the "Star Trek" sequel beams up June 29, and the rebooted "Spider-Man" swings into theaters on July 3.
How long is that movie honestly going to be? I feel like I finish playing Battleship in less than 15 minutes. Maybe Monopoly would’ve been a better choice.
Oh Rickie, you're so fine. You're so fine, you blow my mind. Hey Rickie! Hey Rickie!
by kirbir on May 4, 2010 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
You can show more stuff blowing up in Battleship than Monopoly
Who wants to see Rich Uncle Pennybags in a beauty contest?
Failure is just success rounded down.
Re-booted Spider-Man?
Are we actually going to get a non-emo Peter Parker? That’d be great.
SRS BSNS
He was really only emo in Spider-man 3.
And that’s because whoever was in charge of that film left their angst-filled 16 year old in charge for a month of filming. (that’s my theory anyways).
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I just feel like it's an odd combination
To make Parker emo AND a womanizer in the same movie. The best thing about it was the comic book-oriented transitions between scenes.
And, maybe it’s because I like the Spider-Man comic books, but I feel like there are way too many inconsistencies in the last two movies to really make them that good.
Oh Rickie, you're so fine. You're so fine, you blow my mind. Hey Rickie! Hey Rickie!
Spider-Man 2 was on F/X this weekend.
I watched snippets during commercials of the Bucks game. Every time I turned it on, Peter Parker was crying.
It went over the top in S-M 3, I agree, but the seeds were there in S-M 2.
SRS BSNS
Sorry After Watchmen I am ruined
No Super Hero movie will be able to stand up to Watchmen.
kumbaya my lord kumbaya :)
no but naked female super heros did not hurt.
I loved the Comedian my kind of super hero
kumbaya my lord kumbaya :)
Love the new photo
I am a huge fan of the comic and liked the movie adaptation.
re-boot
is apparently keeping him in high school. i think they want it to be more teen angsty.
by Capt Science on May 4, 2010 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Toby and Sam Raimi both declined to participate in a fourth movie
So I’m guessing that’s how the company is dealing with that issue
Oh Rickie, you're so fine. You're so fine, you blow my mind. Hey Rickie! Hey Rickie!
io9.com is all over this
i don’t remember any of the details, other than the guy from (500) days of summer is supposed to direct. i think marvel wants to stop character aging, so the movies being rebooted and then i guess they split up peter and MJ in the comics (i don’t read them, so i don’t know any of this firsthand).
by Capt Science on May 4, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
A link on that website reminds me of Macha.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on May 4, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Dear Hollywood,
Please stop recycling old ideas and reaching for new ones.
Sincerely,
The World
Oh Rickie, you're so fine. You're so fine, you blow my mind. Hey Rickie! Hey Rickie!
Maybe there's just an end of creative ideas
At this point, isn’t it significantly more likely that something is recycled, or at least heavily borrowed from than something 100% original is brought forth?
Its like any Dan Brown book.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Like the remake of Karate Kid.
Tragic.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, its the beginning of the end
When MLBTR posts the “If the <INSERT YOUR TEAM’S NAME> Become Sellers” thread.
I actually chuckled that they referred to ‘middling relievers’ and put Trevor Hoffman and Jeff Suppan in the same sentence.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
i think they linked to ken rosenthal's article that started wondering about prince
which you can find here. the article notes that melvin believes you can extract more value in the offseason, though. i think that may be true if agon talks are actually happening; if not, i could see a team making a push and trying to get prince now and making it interesting.
by Capt Science on May 4, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, Melvin's thing is off-season
I think they should try to trade him before the deadline this year, as I don’t believe the Brewers can get to the playoffs WITH him in 2010, but I believe they could add pieces that could get the team much closer in 2011.
What I think they should do vs. what I think they will do are two totally different things. Its interesting that JSonline commenters don’t believe that anyone will trade any sort of pitching for Fielder. Meanwhile, Tim Dierkes who’s LIFE is trades thinks they can.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Right there with you
Its way to early to be talking buyers and sellers, but if Melvin thinks he can get more out of Fielder after October as opposed to the time between now and July 31, this is just more evidence of how he doesnt really know what he is doing.
Trade him before July 31 and the buying team gets maybe 7 total WAR out of the deal. Trade him in the offseason they only get 5. I.e. they wont give up as much to get less wins out of him. Not to mention the fact that the buying team may be in a better position to arbitrate for his 11 salary.
I think they can definitely get pitching for him. I think the problem is that JS Online and Brewers.com readers think that they can get MLB ready or already MLB arms for him and if that is the case it turns into a 3 player deal including Prince if that, as opposed to a 5 player deal if you go for the hihg upside A ball pitcher.
I really like the Rays as a trading partner for Fielder. Can you imagine a L-R-L middle of the lineup in Tampa with Fielder, Longoria and Pena? The chance to win or go to another WS over the Yankees would make them willing and happy trading partners with the Brewers, and have pitching to spare at almost every level. Top of the rotation quality pitching at that.
I like the Rays as a trade partner too.
Any names in particular you think they could get back in return?
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions
At the beginning of the season
I thought they could have maybe gotten Reid Brignac because he had fallen out of favor, and that they were slating him to be a second baseman with the logjam at SS with Beckham right behind him in the farm system, and using Zobrist as their primary 2b. But it looks like that wont happen now, because Brignac appears te be their guy at 2b and Zobrist in RF.
Pitching wise I think the Brewers could pull away Colome, Bernese and maybe even Matt Moore in a trade for Fielder.
Sgt is probably right about the whole Melvin Rangers thing, but I dont think the Rangers have the talent in the lower levels the Brewers should be looking for as far as pitching goes in a trade for Fielder. After Kasey Kiker, there is a big drop off in the talent level of thier pitching prospects, and the top level guys in their system like Perez and Scheppers would come at too big of a price.
If the Rays plan on extending Crawford (possible) then Desmond Jennings suddenly becomes somewhat expendable.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think that is going to happen.
Crawford will be gone.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Most likely
The Brewers should probably ask for a pitcher as the key piece in the deal, too. Maybe Hellickson+? That would be nice.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
I was thinking Hellickson too.
I’d rather have Hellickson and one of the guys that backtocali mentioned as opposed to three low level pitchers that might pan out. We need pitching at the upper levels now.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
If we want to win now
Braun and Gallardo are the centerpieces of the franchise right now, and they’re locked in for quite a while. One could argue that it might make sense to play for ’13 or ’14 when the next wave of Brewers prospects are becoming ready too.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
(Althoug Hellickson accomplishes both)
I would probably rather have him than any other minor league pitcher except Strasburg. The fact that he’s conceivably expendable to Tampa Bay shows how ridiculous their farm is right now.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the next wave of prospects will be up in '11 or '12
Lucroy, Gindl, Lawrie, Cain/Schafer, Rivas, maybe Rogers and Anundsen. Hellickson would fit in nicely there.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
FWIW
I’ve thought all along that 2012 presents the best chance of a return to the post-season for the Brewers….provided they net a nice return for Fielder, and the other guys blossom.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Can I cryogenically freeze myself to be awoken in Spring, 2012?
C: Lucroy, 1B: Gamel, 2B: Lawrie, SS: Escobar, 3B: McGehee, LF: Braun, CF: Gomez/Cain, RF: Gindl?
SP: Gallardo, SP: Hellickson!, SP: Parra, SP: Rivas, SP: Scarpetta/Peralta, CL: Braddock
The more I think about it the less Tampa Bay seems like a likely trade candidate though. Pena is decent enough at 1B and if they need a DH they have no shortage of talented hitters (Jennings is waiting for a spot to play as it is)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
True about the DH issue
But I think TB if they were to trade for him, only would want him for the remainder of 2010, and then trade him this offseason. Primarily because they wont be able to afford him next year, much less beyond.
I just dont see Hellickson going anywhere. He is one of the best pitching prospects in the game. the #8 prospect on their top 10 (Colome) is more highly ranked than all but 3 of the Brewers prospects.
TB could afford to give up Matt Moore, Alex Colome (who is pitching in A ball right now, and Nick Barnese (who is also in A ball) and get fair value for Fielder. Maybe would have to add one more player.
I think you're right on the 2010 rental point with TB
But depending on how their season worked out, you’d think they might be willing to stretch to hold on to him for one more year with the rest of their young talent to make another run in 2011. Though clearly they wouldn’t be in line to offer him a big FA contract past that.
One point you didn’t mention is that if he did go to TB, and they wanted to trade him after the 2010 season, that might rule out Boston. Or would the Rays be willing to do an in-division trade?
Good point
No way they trade to Boston. There is an intense hatred there. They would deal with the Cubs or White Sox though I bet.
Atlanta makes sense too
Freeman + pitching? Although most of the Braves’ top pitching is a few years away. They might be more willing to trade Vizcaino because it would let them act like the Vazquez trade was key to getting Fielder.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
For some reason...
I see Melvin going to the same well he’s been tapping.. the Rangers.
They have a pretty deep farm club, and Melvin is no stranger in dealing with them. No reason to even call other clubs. :)
but the rangers have smoak
i don’t see them needing a 1B or trading for a DH. davis might be able to play there, or FA, etc…
by Capt Science on May 4, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Plus
Wouldn’t the Rangers pending sale/bankruptcy prevent them from taking on Prince’s salary in exchange for prospects?
by Brew Believer on May 4, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
He, like Davis, is also not hitting yet
Factor in the injury-risk at DH in Guerrero and Texas could potentially become suitors for Fielder. Play Fielder at 1B in 2010 (Smoak might still be too young to be a full time major leaguer) and at 1B/DH in 2011.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I'll go ahead and play devil's advocate
In July, there will be a team or two looking for a bat, tops. If you’re a contending team, odds are you have a decent first baseman. It’s one of those things most teams already have. The team that buys his services might net 7 WAR (and maybe 4.5-5 over the guy that Fielder replaces), but there’s only one or two teams bidding.
During the offseason, things are a little different for two reasons:
1) Rosters are in a little more fluid state, so it’s easier to acquire an upgrade at a position and deal the incumbent player.
2) More teams are still in or think they’re still in contention.
So, a team that acquires Fielder after the season gets 4-5 WAR, but there might be five teams bidding and driving up the price.
I think there are valid points on both sides. If the market for Fielder isn’t hot now, I think waiting to deal him is an option that shouldn’t be dismissed.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Maybe there was more to the Hardy story than we knew
but I wasn’t very pleased with how Melvin handled that veteran trade situation in the last offseason.
I dont mind that deal
Because I think Gomez has the potential to be a very good CF and 3-4 WAR type of player if he can ever learn to take a pitch. At the very worst he could be a Juan Pierre type with a great throwing arm, which isnt all that awful.
If anything, I felt that they should have traded Hardy during the offseason before. And they probably would have gotten a very nice pitcher in return. I honestly feel that they could have netted Matt Cain if they had sent Hardy to SF during the 08/09 offseason.
I agree with
If anything, I felt that they should have traded Hardy during the offseason before. And they probably would have gotten a very nice pitcher in return. I honestly feel that they could have netted Matt Cain if they had sent Hardy to SF during the 08/09 offseason.
But I cannot agree with
Because I think Gomez has the potential to be a very good CF and 3-4 WAR type of player if he can ever learn to take a pitch
As I don’t know if after upwards of 1100 MLB PAs someone is just going to click. Or at least odds are against it.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m obviously biased in favor of Gomez, but I will point out that not all 1100 MLB PAs are created equal. He was very young and very rushed to start his career, and I can think of a lot of future stars who were just as bad at first, especially if their defense brought them to the majors prematurely (Yount, Smith, etc.)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I think at this point you and I both know what the other thinks and/or has to say
and we’re sort of reduced to “well, that’s your opinion, but I disagree with it.”
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure I want more high upside A ball guys for him.
The Brewers already have Eric Arnett, Kyle Heckathorn, Jake Odorizzi, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, Amaury Rivas et al between Wisconsin and Huntsville. I’m not sure they maximize their benefit by adding another guy to that list.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
This is true
And the Brewers have a very poor history of developing pitching, much less drafting it, but of the players you mention, theres not one name I would consider impact pitching at this point. Arnett and Odirizzi have that as a ceiling but this year will put that into clearer focus. I eventually think Arnett winds up in the bullpen as a closer type as does Heckathorn. Neither of them has much of a change and command is an issue. Scarpetta is a bottom of the rotation guy and again, someone I wouldnt consider impact. I think Peralta is a Wild Card and could be a very good pitcher in the future, but much like Odirizzi has to prove himself.
The team needs pitching there is no doubt, and even with the depth they have in the system, most prognosticators believe it is lacking in impact level talent. The place to get that, if you can develop it, in a trade for Fielder is among guys who are currently in A ball The impact arms in AA and AAA are already pricing themselves out of a trade for Fielder at this point. I mean, the team could go out and try to actquire these types of players in that trade, but then you only get 2 players for him or maybe even 1.
Right now Fielders value is aobut that of 1 elite hitting prospect, or one elite leve pitching prospect and another player. I dont think anyone is going to give up elite level prospects or players for Fielder, so why not go for the guys who have the potential but are not yet elite yet, and get 3 or 4 of them instead of just 1 or 2?
He's worth more than that right now
Right now – as opposed to the offseason. Why would you want an elite hitting prospect when you can have a young, healthy elite hitter entering his prime? But that value drops as we get closer to the end of contract. A prospect might never make it, but the only question about Prince is whether he hits 35 or 50 every year.
But trading for one prospect and junk? You’re insane.
You might want to
Read this
Ive got Fielder’s surplus value at about $28 million or so, figure you get a premium in a trade for him and its up to $30 million. Of course not a lot of GM’s are going to do the saber slanted thing, but not many will give up a top level prospect for a player they can only control for one year.
If they traded for him this year and cant afford him next year, they can deal him again during the offseason (the acquiring team) like the A’s did with Matt Holliday.
The top 100 is easy
YOu can get it from Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. A lot of those top 100 lists are available and there isnt a ton of discrepancy between them.
But Sickels grades on performance and upside a little differently than the BA types do. He does his own scouting and, imo, tends to favor numbers a little too much. But as a reference, for the Brewers, as far as pitchers go, he has Eric Arnett graded as a B, Odirizzi, Peralta, Scarpetta and Heckathorn at B-, Josh Butler as a C+, he also has Braddock as a C+ but that grade will probably change.
Ok, here's what I'm saying.
Prospects are unknown quantities. Aside from the occasional ’can’t miss’ prospect, whom no team is going to trade anyway, you’re taking a gamble. Let’s take a look at 1997 for example – you trade away 2 years of Prince Fielder for a top #100 prospect.
If you end up with Jarrod Washburn or Livan Hernandez, you look pretty good with a strong starter in a couple of years. Then again, you might accidentally end up with a higher-ranked guy like Braden Looper or Jeff Suppan, and then you’re kinda screwed. I’m just cautioning against underestimating the value of proven product.
Look at what Atlanta gave up to have Teixeira for the same length of time
Obviously that was overkill that the Brewers shouldn’t expect, but it was what, their top four prospects?
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes
But at the time, Andrus Feliz and Harrison were all in A ball I believe. Harrsion may have been in AA. Saltamacchia was the only MLB ready player. The Rangers also sent Moylan along in the deal.
Anybody know how Tim Dillybar is pitching?
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't think this monetary value thing is going to have any bearing whatsoever on a trade for Fielder
I think you’re sort of kidding yourself if you think two GMs out there (one being The Mustache) are going to sit down with a list and say “Well, Prince is worth $28.5MM according to this chart, and Fangraph’s WAR surplus value is X over the past two years, with a projection of Y for the next 1.5 years. Looks like you have this top 10 hitter, but he’s worth $30MM based on this chart, so I think we can call it a good one-for-one because Fielder’s ready now.”
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Right
But this is the methodology we have in place to determine whether or not a fair deal was made down the road.
Jury is still out on the Sabathia trade because LaPorta hasnt really started his career yet. But if the 7 wins Sabathia gave the Brewers is less than what LaPorta and Brantley give Cleveland, factor in playoff funds received because of Sabathia, and its not even, its not a good trade.
I dont think Melvin gets it, but a lot of GM’s out there are catching on and trying to maximize value. They may not be doing it the way that you or I think but they arent going to give up a boatload of prospects for 1.3 years of Fielder because it feels right, its going to be based on economics and scouting reports.
It doesn't work exactly like that though
The goal of a team (and management) isn’t to maximize wins. It’s to win the World Series, get the playoffs, or at least make all possible attempts to do those things.
Consider Team A: Year 1, 90 wins, playoffs. Year 2, 79 wins. Year 3, 80 wins.
Team B: Year 1, 83 wins. Year 2, 83 wins. Year 3, 83 wins.
Those two season-arcs are not equivalent. Team A is clearly the preferable one from the point of view of a GM and, I would argue, of a fanbase.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would think most fans of Brewers would do that trade again in a heartbeat, no matter how good Laporta and Brantley turn out and don’t think the jury is out at all.
I can see how those who dislike Milwaukee, their fans and a lot of the players on the team would see it differently though.
Get a ife broseph
I would think most fans of Brewers would do that trade again in a heartbeat, no matter how good Laporta and Brantley turn out and don’t think the jury is out at all.
I said that very thing as soon as I walked into Miller Park for Game 3.
SRS BSNS
It's hard to say really
Game 3 was amazing. But if we flopped, didn’t go but used LaPorta and Brantly during that off season to acquire someone, we may be signing a different tune.
Imagine what our rotation would look like if we ended up with Cliff Lee or Halladay (I understand it would take a ton more then LaPorta and Barntley for Halladay). But you get the idea, there was plenty of pitching to trade for in the 08/09 off season. Hell, Peavy was even available for the right price.
CC got us to the promised land, but we could have improved the pitching staff for a longer time instead of a one season ducttape job. If we had a decent rotation last year, who knows.. we could have made a legit run. If our rotation was better this year, who knows.. we could be way closer to the cards then where we are.
Sheets was good
You forget Sheets was pitching well when the trade was made. At the time CC and Sheets were being hailed as the best 1-2 punch of possible playoff teams. At the time the worst the Brewers were expecting were two first round picks to come their way in the off season with a small chance of signing CC.
Sustained run vs one shot
I would just rather see a long term goal, a sustained run at the playoffs than a “all or nothing” shot.
That shot paid off, but if LaPorta does turn out to have a very good career for Cleveland, and Brantley is off to a nice start, then what was the cost? The Indians have control of two very good pieces for 6 years in return for a guy who helped the Brewers get one playoff victory.
Brantley/LaPorta could have been key pieces to hold onto making it easier to trade Fielder now without worrying about what whill happen to the offense in 2010. And if those two guys turn out to be worth more than CC’s wins were in 08, wouldn you much rather have a team playing in multiple playoff series multiple years vs one year?
I dont think there was any shot at re-signing Sabathia, another reason I dont think Melvin gets it. He may have said they had a real offer and a legitimate shot, but thats just not true.
Its not about disliking the fans or team or players, I have tremedous respect for organizations that do things right, I just dont think that Melvin is doing things right for the long term health of the organization.
If the team doesnt make it to the playoffs for another 26 years, and LaPorta and Brantley flop, then it was a great trade, and the fans that got to go to game 3 and 4 at MP got their money’s worth.
At the time of the trade
Did you think CC would only help the Brewers win one playoff game?
I didnt even think he was going to give them that
And if not for the Mets collapse, he may not have.
I had felt that Sabathia was an underachiever and that he tended to get lazy when he wasnt happy. He had such an inconsistent run to that point in his career, going from one year to the next being successful vs being a .500 pitcher. I did not think that he was going to help the team when the trade happened.
But if Sheets had stayed healthy,
they wouldn’t have needed a Mets collapse to make it to the playoffs.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
LaPorta and Brantley could turn into All-Stars, it was still a good trade. Prospects are never a sure thing (in fact, LaPorta is looking less and less like a sure thing, if you ask me) and Melvin turned two of our prospects into a real playoff run, not to mention the most exciting half-season from a Brewers player in recent memory.
There are plenty of reason to argue that Melvin “doesn’t get it,” but the Sabathia trade was one of his highlights.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm gonna call bullshit on evaluating a trade after the fact
It’s based on the information you have at the time. Anything else is purely results-based analysis. The Sabathia trade was a good trade whether LaPorta becomes a Hall-of-Famer or if he got hit by a bus on the way to Cleveland. I believed that when the trade was made and I believe it now.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on May 4, 2010 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 6 recs
And I still think the Linebrink trade wasn't good
Because it didn’t achieve its desired result (Brewers in the playoffs in 2007).
That may be results-based analysis, but if the goal isn’t attained, then doesn’t it have to go down as a failure? Sure, it was mitigated to some extent through draft-pick compensation, but it’s still a failure.
History is the determinant of whether a trade is good or not
Its just how it goes. Im sure Phillies fans back in 1982 thought they had a good player in Ivan DeJesus and all they had to give up was a prospect named Ryne Sandberg, or Expos fans when they got Bartolo Colon for a handful of no names.
If LaPorta turns out to be a Hall of Famer and could have wound up helping the Brewers to 6 pennants or World Series, damn right it was a bad trade.
The Brewers made one playoff appearance because of this trade and won one game in the series, as of right now, with LaPorta and Brantley’s careers just starting it was a good trade for the Brewers. Its incredibly short sighted to be happy about the one playoff win if LaPorta turns out to be a perennial All Star.
That's a fundamental disagreement we have here
Analysis should be based on the information available at the time. I would think that someone such as yourself would recognize that results-based analysis is, generally, not good analysis. Search Fangraphs for the term “results-based analysis” and you’ll find plenty of articles showing the folly of that type of analysis.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
My brain sides with Jordan
my heart with back2cali
however, my heart sucks, so I’m going with my brain on this one.
It's a method that could be used between Doug and Gord and Mark,
not necessarily with the other teams FO. But behind closed doors, I bet they have a fairly similar method of evaluating trade proposals.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
It really depends on the team.
A team like the Red Sox or Yankees that just buys the best pitching in the Free Agent Market, and already has plenty of quality starters at the major league level would be more likely to give up pitching prospects than someone else.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
sox make sense
and it could be either. white sox reportedly looking at AGON, so maybe they’d be interested in prince. red sox, the same applies. they’re deeper in pitching, though.
by Capt Science on May 4, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think the Red Sox make sense.
Youk is at 1B, Ortiz at DH. Maybe it that hadn’t acquired Beltre and were able to move Youk to third.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
I think there’s a reason Boston has been rumored to be interested in guys for a long time, but have never actually pulled the trigger. I think their FO probably works the phones a fair amount, but even the “sure thing” deals don’t seem to come through all that often.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
it depends on what the other team is willing to take back
at some point they might give up on papi or lowell. but if a team takes back beltre and then they can shift youk to 3B, things get a lot easier for them. i wouldn’t be against getting beltre as the add on (and moving mcgehee to 1B for the time being) as long as we get a good arm as the focal point.
but really, this is all “what if” and if the brewers win 10 of their next 15, people will probably start to worry less.
The problem is Ortiz can't hit anymore
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Not only that
But they are going to be linked in to Adrian Gonzalez first because of the Hoyer/Red Sox connection.
They might pursue Fielder if the Gonzales trade falls through or doesnt happen, but its probably more of an offseason issue, since the Padres are playing very well right now and wont want to deal him until the win or are eliminated.
I like the Red Sox as a partner because they could get Lars Anderson as part of the deal, but they dont really have a ton of pitching talent apart from Casey Kelly right now (who they arent going to trade).
Now that the Brewers are out of town
I’m going to cheer hard for the Padres, if only to keep Gonzalez off the market.
Ah, but if they continue to suck, and start to panic....
We just need them to bench Ortiz because he can’t hit. Let’s see, what overweight, left-handed sluggers are available on the trade market….?
I wouldnt put too much thought into that series...
The author of that post was even holding out for things to change in the MKE. Its mostly just filler since during the season there really isnt much to talk about. If you look, 90% of what they write about on the daily is Bryce Harper and that can get/is tiring.
::Another 95% plus FanGraphs win goes right down the fucking tubes:: Indians fan after Prince's Grand Salami
Weeks
I think Weeks’ cold streak wasn’t getting attention because everyone else has been doing so poorly as well. I don’t think I was the only one around here that noted Weeks isn’t seeing the ball well during the slump. There’s no doubt that hurts the Brewers in terms of getting an extra run here or there, but ultimately they need more than an extra run every so often to start winning again.
As far as the shake up goes, what could they shake up? Dale Sveum seems to be the only coach they could hang out to dry and I don’t really know what difference a hitting coach makes, anyway. There’s little that can be done for the starting rotation and the outfield is generally-speaking putting up good numbers. Gamel isn’t ready to take a try at 3rd (given he’s not playing at all…). It seems a little early to bring up Lucroy and that would just mean Kottaras goes away, anyway.
I just don’t see anything to shake up.
If Rickie was running
I didn’t notice he was slumping, but I noticed he wasn’t running when he gets on base. If he were more of a threat to turn everything into a double teams would be less inclined to walk him and he’s see better pitches to hit. Green light, Rickie!
Shake ups
Things that could happen, IMO:
1) As mentioned above, managerial change.
2) Suppan released, Braddock called up.
3) Kottaras DFA’d, Lucroy called up and installed as 3-4 day/week catcher.
4) Sveum fired, replaced by Don Money.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
He wasn't born as the catcher of the future
That’s it, he’s done nothing wrong except being in the way of Lucroy.
It was just a shake up idea
Lucroy is crushing in the minors so there’s a case to be made to give him a shot at the major league level. KL wasn’t advocating the move, necessarily, just listing it as an option that would change the clubhouse.
Oh, I didn't think KL was advocating the move.
I just saw a justification behind every other move — Macha’s bizarre moves this year; the offense’s deep freeze in San Diego; Suppan pitching himself into the Last Option in the ‘Pen corner — that didn’t exist for Kott. He’s played pretty well, I think.
SRS BSNS
Agreed
Not that we’d get much back for Zaun. Kottaras has played pretty well.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
See also: 2009 Baltimore Orioles.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 4, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Kottaras would have to go for Lucroy
Because they won’t DFA Zaun. He’s too gritty and has a 2 year deal.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Sure enough
I was thinking the club option was guaranteed. Nonetheless, I find it unlikely they’ll DFA him. They might move him into a backup role, though.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Another possibility...
Macha fired, Sveum becomes interim manager again. This opens up the hitting coach slot for someone else.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
If Macha is let go and Sveum is named the replacement
you can probably start looking for a new bench coach, too.
SRS BSNS
I wish we would stop recycling ex-Brewers as coaches and managers. Nothing against the old heroes, but let’s hire someone with a manager’s mind.
by nullacct on May 4, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ted is interesting
He did a stint with the Brewers as a bench coach recently, didn’t he? He kind of left the scene early, and I’m not sure what the team thinks of him and vice versa. I’d interview him, sure – along with Julio Franco.
Simmons was "reassigned" when Yost was fired.
Seems like DM didn’t have much faith in Simmons… at least not enough to name him interim manager at the time.
I think it was more Simmons being a friend of Yost and not wanting to take over
Failure is just success rounded down.
I don't think Yount is the type to spend 3 or 4 months as an interim bench coach
I don’t think he likes being away from home that much.
Failure is just success rounded down.
Right
He’s taken on coaching roles with multiple MLB teams, including the Brewers, but none of them end up last more than a season. Seems like he really enjoys retirement. Now all he has to do is worry about selling lemonade.
Didn't Robin take the bench coach gig as a favor to Sveum?
I could look it up, but I’m incredibly lazy.
SRS BSNS
Yup
But that was only for a couple weeks.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
That's what I thought.
He was pinch-hitting for his buddy because there were only a couple of weeks left in the season.
SRS BSNS
I'm all for Randolph
Since he’s the one who lobbed Gallardo’s foul ball into the stands in PETCO the other night. Without Willie, the Braunophile wouldn’t have his latest prized possession.
The ability to toss foul balls to fans is a skill that should not be underestimated.
Throwing balls into the stands
Does it have to be intentional? Because if not, I hear Derrick Turnbow is looking for a job.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Speaking of whom...
the JS blog entry about the Brewers’ “deceiving” runs/game average is really just an application of the Yost-Turnbow principle, no?
If Macha were fired
And Randolph would get cut too, this would be the second time Randolph was fired on west coast trip. IIRC
We're not as nasty as the Mets, I think...
…and wouldn’t Randolph be a natural choice for interim manager?
by thefreewheelin76 on May 4, 2010 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Might as well not fire Macha then
I don’t think Randolph would be any sort of an upgrade.
Failure is just success rounded down.
I was curious and started looking up some recent managerial changes.
In every instance I looked up, there was an improvement in winning percentage. This was just a bit of skimming through 8-10 examples. Has anyone done a definitive managerial change study?
Not shocking really since I would venture to
guess that when a manager is fired midseason the team is playing below expectations and thus usually bound to get better whether the manager is changed or not.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Actually...
I would disagree. Macha consistantly makes statements that generally disappoints when talking about strategies he wants to use. Randolph has already been working well with Weeks and, with our speed on the bases, we will really be agressive with runners on(FINALLY!).
::Another 95% plus FanGraphs win goes right down the fucking tubes:: Indians fan after Prince's Grand Salami
Working well with Weeks doesn't translate
into managerial duties. It means he’s a good bench coach.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I'm struggling with this thread
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on May 4, 2010 1:59 PM CDT reply actions
Re: 2010 draft
I think it would be cool to have the BCB community try and predict the first 14 picks of the draft (and thus who the Brewers end up taking). I guess it’s kind of a crapshoot who teams end up taking though (i.e. this college pitcher or that college pitcher) and nobody really knows any of the players except through blurb scouting reports.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
I read as much stuff as anyone
And I don’t stand a chance of predicting the first five picks, much less the top 14.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
It’s easier if you use this draft prediction utility I’ve discovered.
(Will Bryce Harper fall to the Brewers? “Definitely”)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Zach Braddock Watch ('09-'10): 51.7 IP, 1.39 ERA, 0.812 WHIP, 14.6 K/9, 11 BB, 84 K
by SRB on May 4, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions
It looks like all this Fielder talk is useless
because he will “absolutely” sign a team-friendly deal with the Brewers.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
They should make that thing into a movie
Failure is just success rounded down.
by TheJay on May 4, 2010 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
"Is Noah the BCB communities favorite contributor?"
“Absolutely”
I knew it.
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
The eight ball just said "Definitely".
"Probably won't make a decision until after the decision starts"
Doug Melvin
Fire Ken Macha? Yes maybe but can we please start by firing Doug Melvin? I cannot believe some of the moves during the offseason! When last season ended I figure we needed two top notch starting pitchers, I would be ok with the signing of Randy Wolf if the other big signing was a #1 or 1A type starter, instead we got Doug Davis, are you joking? I knew that wouldn’t work before it happened.
What he could have done, what I thought last year, and I’ve heard no one talk about is keep JJ Hardy! He’s due for a rebound season and had little trade value, you basically threw him away for nothing because Carlos Gomez is a piece of crap. Then you could have traded Escobar (over-rated) and perhaps another prospect for that #1 type starting pitcher. In the OF you would have plenty wit Braun, Hart, Edmonds, Jason Bougois (who was given away), Gerut and Matt Gamel in RF, yes Gamel in RF! Irrabarren is a good player and could have provided depth in the infield but he too was basically given away. Bill Hall struggled but you owed him so much money and he was so versatile defensively we should have just kept him through his contract.
There are countless pathetic moves Doug Melvin has made not to mention hiring an American League manager when you have plenty of team speed that isn’t being taken advantage of.
Get a clue and fire Doug Melvin now!!!!!!
I don't have time to tackle everything that's wrong with this, so I'll only go for one.
How do you suggest we pay a #1 starter? Especially if we’re still paying JJ.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on May 4, 2010 4:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Keep Bill Hall?!?!
I think you are looking for Old Vegas
Anybody else see Bill Hall flailing away in center field in Boston?
Almost felt bad for the guy. Then I remembered we’re paying him not to play for us, and I got over it.
SRS BSNS
Bill E hit his first HR of the season against my Angels last night
He did pretty much the same thing in a series against them last season for the Mariners. (OPS of 0.955 @ Angel Stadium) I posited then that the whole problem with Hall was that the Brewers didn’t schedule enough games in Angel Stadium. Apparently the curse of Bill Hall applies against the Angels at Fenway Park, too.
I think that's the opponent wearing red effect
Failure is just success rounded down.
by TheJay on May 4, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yep
Felt bad for him when he rammed into the small wall in Right Center.
Kind of funny that the Red Sox made it a goal to better their pitching and defense, yet had Bill Hall playing CF in an April game.
Get a ife broseph
I disagree.
Not with Melvin, but what you cited as the reasons. Gomez is outhitting Hardy, adds speed on the bases, and plays a great defensive CF. Escobar is putting up the same numbers (offensively and defensively) as Hardy. Bill Hall didn’t struggle, he had one fluke season of offensive productivity in an otherwise atrocious career.
I agree on the Macha hire, if it was all Melvin’s decision. Whatever Macha is good for it isn’t his game management, he’s pretty awful.
escobar's defensive season
he has several errors already on the season. I don’t know how many balls he reached that hardy could not have though….but I haven’t been impressed with his MLB-level defense YET.
"A utility roll"
That sounds like the least popular item at a sushi bar.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on May 4, 2010 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 7 recs
It's a Leatherman wrapped in seaweed and rice.
by Brew Angel on May 4, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hall's salary was a sunk cost
By letting him go, the Brewers freed up a roster spot for someone actually useful. Yes, Hall can play multiple positions (but not very well).
The Mariners released him after last season, and they were only paying him the league minimum. In other words, the Mariners thought even LESS of Hall than the Brewers.
you had me for a while
In the second or third sentence of the second paragraph things rapidly went south.
nullcct you can defend Melvin but somebody needs to call him out, there has been too many screwups. He’s gotta go, c’mon Mark Antanasio!
It's not that we disagree with you on Melvin.
We just disagree with your reasoning.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I honestly think last off season Melvin did about the best as he could have with what he had to work with.
We got one of the top 5 pitchers available in the off season. We got a reliable #4 pitcher to replace Suppan at the end of the rotation. We got a great replacement defensively for Cammy in CF for a fraction of the cost while adding speed though losing some power. We got a solid catcher who doesn’t play enough to prevent a backup (eventually "Lucroy) from getting significant playing time and working himself into the lineup.
With the money that Melvin had at his disposal he got the best SP he could have hoped to get, you have to give him credit for it. He got a solid back end of the rotation starter for a good market cost. No one could have predicted Davis’ nosedive in performance.
The only thing I think that might be questionable is JJ and I wonder how much other GM’s really valued him.
You need pitching to win guys, take assets in certain areas and use for pitching, i.e. trade Escobar, realize you already have enough in the OF where you don’t need Gomez
Sure, I think it's interesting to see how the team could have looked this year.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
"No one could have predicted Davis’ nosedive in performance."
I would have, if you had told me that Davis was servicable in 2009. I don’t have fond memories of his last stint in Milwaukee, so I wasn’t looking forward to him being on our roster again.
WOW~!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on May 5, 2010 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 11:59 AM CDT)
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