Small sample size, but Gamel is tearing it up
by LosinCatmansLove on Jun 16, 2010 8:04 AM CDT
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Mat Gamel is hitting .340 with an OBP of .430 in 21 games in AA and AAA. Thoughts? Comments? Concerns?
One thing that made me frustrated last year was the inability to properly split up the playing time between two great 3B prospects (McGhee and Gamel). One could make the argument that McGhee (with his production) and Gamel (with his potential) both deserved all of the time, so it seemed like no mix would have been a satisfying one.
The downside of Prince regaining form is the reminder that we won't be able to afford him. How much does Gamel's production thus far sway people's opinion as to whether or not we should move Fielder? More importantly (because we know our opinions mean nothing in the grand scheme of things) what do you think the front office thinks about it? Do we really want anyone hitting .320 in AAA without a clear path to the majors?
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I still have no idea where Gamel would play
so I’m of the opinion, thanks to persuasive arguments on this board, that Melvin is looking to trade Gamel this year. He has more value as a 3rd baseman than a converted 1st baseman. An impending trade is the only rational reason I can think of for not having Gamel at 1st base, already. It seems like a great deal for the Brewers would be to find a solid 1st base prospect + a high upside, A-level pitcher for Gamel if the trade environment is right. If they get any less than they’ll just be costing themselves a boatload of money in the 1st base free agent market when they could just convert Gamel.
With so many free agent first baseman hitting the market within the same period even if the Brewers can’t retain Fielder or find a good 1st base prospect in the trade market, there’s at least a chance they could find a solid-to-great replacement for only $12-$15 million / year.
Looking at the economics of it...
I just don’t see how letting Gamel play first isn’t a no brainer. You hit it right on the head, “there’s at least a chance they could find a solid-to-great replacement for only $12-$15 million / year.” Gamel wouldn’t make that kind of money for the next four years. What is the incremental production of a veteran $12-$15 million guy over Mat Gamel? 1 win? 1st base is the most expensive everyday position and it requires less defensive talent than all of the others. If we have a big, cheap, young bat with shaky defense, how is that not a match made in heaven? Why spend the money when you don’t have to?
by LosinCatmansLove on Jun 16, 2010 9:36 AM CDT up reply actions
What if they're planning to sign Fielder, period?
What if Mark A has told Melvin he’s going to keep Fielder even if he has to make a Godfather offer to do it? $25+ million / year for 7 years would do it. The Brewers should actually have that much payroll flexibility next year. We have ample evidence that spending in the free agent starting pitching market isn’t exactly a slam dunk and that’s really the only hole to fill next year if we keep Fielder and Hart (he’s another discussion, let’s not cover that here).
I’m not necessarily arguing that it’s a good idea to tie up over 25% of your payroll in one player, but if we make the ironclad assumption that Fielder will be with the Brewers for the next 5-7 years, then we need a young pitcher’s indentured servitude wages. The best chance of getting that is trading Gamel.
Perhaps I’m giving DM too much credit, but I wouldn’t be upset to see the Brewers fielding essentially the same roster next year with Fielder at 1st, a promising young starting pitcher in the rotation and a 1-year contract bullpen.
It's a nice argument.
But do you really believe they planning on keeping Fielder?
I don’t. I believe they’d like to. I believe they’ll make an effort. I believe they’ll leak the numbers for the contract he rejects in an effort to avoid the worst of the bad press. And I believe they’ll trade him or let him go and take the picks if they don’t get an offer they like and they’re contending early next year.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I do honestly believe they think they can sign him
As the face of the organization – with all due respect to Ryan Braun and Gallardo – he’s worth more than just his production. Derek Jeter happens to be very productive, but don’t try to tell me the value of his contract is based solely on his OPS.
Prince Fielder’s face and name put butts in seats. People won’t pay money to see Gamel come up to bat. Gamel’s face on commercials won’t get people to the ballpark like Fielder’s will. There’s an undeniable chemistry between Braun and Fielder with no guarantee that Gamel would do as well.
A $20+ million free agent pitcher would do something similar, but then what’s the difference between him and Fielder? Keep the homegrown guy.
The difference is...
… we can (arguably) approach replacing Fielder’s production as a 1st baseman by 2012. We have virtually no shot at replacing a similarly productive pitcher. I’m not convinced Melvin would sign the right pitcher given the resources (mostly because he almost never has when he’s tried), but if you do it right, you win more games. And if you win games, people will come to a park they like to come to in any event, and it’s pretty clear people like to come to Miller Park.
Of course that presumes a lot. It presumes that Gamel or someone else (maybe Morris, if we’re exceptionally lucky) will put up 75% of the numbers Fielder has in his better years. And it presumes that you spend the money on an actual #1 or #2 pitcher, instead of an aging, junk-balling retread who’s showing signs of decline. If you’re not willing to presume those things, then you’ve got a bad GM who should probably be fired.
I like Prince as much as anyone. He’s a character and he’s easy to like when he’s on your team. But wins put butts in the seats far more than any charismatic player does. If that weren’t the case, the attendance at Miller Park wouldn’t be down this year.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2010 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions
So how do you win more games?
Why is an established free agent pitcher + Gamel going to be a better replacement in terms of producing wins than Fielder + young starter?
If we’re not tying up $25 million for Fielder, we could be legit players in the market for Halladay or Lee. Even Melvin couldn’t screw up that for the first few years of those contracts (and what does any GM care about a contract 3 years down the road?). They’ll be good, period.
I suppose a super free agent pitcher would similarly put butts in seats on the days he pitches.
Like you, however, I believe Melvin would spend $12 million on a bad decision and then offer Mariano Rivera the other $12 million. I’d rather have those dollars locked up in Fielder where we know we’re going to be getting real value for them.
Where does the "young starter" come from though?
I don’t think Gamel would bring in a major league starter in a trade. Trading Fielder allows us to maximize the value of Gamel (by actually playing him) while simultaneously bringing in talent from the trade and freeing up quite a bit of money. So we lose, what, 3-4 WAR at 1B, but gain hopefully at least a major league starter (from the trade) and enough free money to legitimately compete for someone like Lee.
Also, given the team’s current makeup, adding good pitching is more important then retaining good hitting.
That said, if Fielder decides to agree to an extension at a reasonable price, I wouldn’t be unhappy.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I have to agree with TSSC and SRB here
Trading Fielder allows the Brewers to get young pitching, maximize Gamel’s production, and be players for a real pitcher, rather than the garbage DM has been going after (DD, Randy Wolf)
-BTW I like Wolf as much as the next guy, but he is not a number 2 pitcher in the NL Central, he is a fine #3 and a good number 4.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jun 18, 2010 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
How do the Brewers get young pitching for Fielder?
I’m not convinced teams would part for young pitching for Fielder, either. Maybe we don’t trade any of them and find a way to move to the AL so Gamel can DH.
Oh no, I think Fielder's value is very high
I’m just not convinced any teams are willing to part with their young pitching now without getting pitching in return, that’s all.
If he's looking for a trade, he better get top 100 prospect value at least
Gamel should not be traded to be traded. He’s probably at a low point of value despite doing nothing to disprove the idea that he’s a top prospect and a very gifted hitter.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
From your keyboard to Melvin's tiny pea brain.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 16, 2010 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Sasquatchastacheasaurus.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 17, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I've given up trying to figure out what the Org is doing with Gamel
Nothing has made sense so far, wouldn’t expect that to change.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jun 16, 2010 10:00 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I would argue
that his effectiveness as a RHP would be roughly the same as a LHP in terms of W/L record.
As long as the organization isn't doing much with him
why let him play more first base in Nashville? It can’t hurt anything. Someone has to replace Prince…it’s not too early to start finding out who it will be.
One man's garbage is another man-person's good ungarbage.
Melvin needs to buck up and trade prince no later than
this offseason. I guess he would just be tipping his hand if they moved Gamel to 1st right now though.
All is vanity.
It's not tipping his hand
because everyone knows we can’t afford Fielder long-term. Someone has to play first base in Nashville. And I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that Gamel needs serious work on defense (no matter where they play him).
BUT, maybe this is why Hunter Morris is starting off his pro career in Wisconsin rather than Arizona or Helena. We’ll have to see how he handles it.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Hunter Morris?
Anyone else notice that he is listed as a third basemen (3B) by the brewers?
Do they think that they can lock up Prince or are they anticipating trading Gamel?
Yep, starting for the T-Rats tonight at 1st.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Way too small a sample size to really discuss it.
Hall was tearing up too over a span of 24 games, but it’s not like that means much.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Small Sample Size?
21 games dude. How big of a sample size do you need? What are you sampling? What are you even talking about?
Since players generally get 400-600 AB in a year, and Gamel only had rougly 75 AB between AA and AAA when this was written,
We don’t have a large enough sample of At Bats to draw any sort of conclusion about his performance.
Sure, he’s been playing very well, but 21 games isn’t enough to say, with confidence, that he will continue to hit at this rate.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Sample size
You’re kidding right? 21 games isn’t even 13% of an entire season. I’d say at least a third of a season of data would be a good starting point.
If you don’t understand what I’m talking about, maybe you should sit back and read a little bit before posting.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 11:59 AM CDT)
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