Wednesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 10:12 AM CDT
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while moving on.
For the second straight night a very good performance from a Brewer pitcher was the story on Tuesday, as Dave Bush held the Angels in check for 7.1 innings, needing just 96 pitches to do so and allowing just one run, striking out one and walking no one. Bush has thrown less than 100 pitches in 9 of his 13 starts this season. The key to his success last night was 13 ground ball outs: Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar notes that that's been a theme lately.
Jim Edmonds started in center field and batted sixth last night, and went 2-for-5 with a double and a pair of strikeouts. It was his first game in Anaheim since being traded following the 1999 season. The Hall of Very Good doesn't think he belongs in the Hall of Fame.
Other notes from the field:
- Rickie Weeks was hit by his 11th pitch yesterday, expanding his major league lead, and Dave Bush hit Torii Hunter with a pitch to expand his Brewer career lead. Plunk Everyone has more on both.
- Prince Fielder, Dave Bush and Alcides Escobar are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
- CoolStandings has the Brewer playoff chances at 2%, the highest they've been since May 30.
- Here's last night's game recap and MLB.com highlights, if you went to bed early.
- The Brewers committed an error, ending their season-high streak of five games without one.
- Brewer relievers entered last night's game with a 2.76 ERA in their last nine games. Kameron Loe and John Axford combined for 1.2 scoreless innings last night to drop that number to 2.61.
Last night was "Stylish Hat Night" in Anaheim, which Adam McCalvy says wasn't as good as Garden Gnome Night in Arizona. Mug readers might recall that the Angels also tried Garden Gnome Night this season, but it didn't go well.
Before yesterday's game, Todd Coffey and Doug Davis both pitched simulated games against Joe Inglett. Both outings went well and both pitchers will be sent out for rehab assignments in Nashville soon.
It continues to be an interesting week to be Casey McGehee: His home run from Monday was Wezen-ball's Tater Trot of the day. Unfortunately, the news isn't good for shortstop Erick Aybar, who injured his knee in a collision with McGehee in the same game: Aybar has "left meniscal damage," and will be reevaluated later this week.
Speaking of home runs, the Brewers are the only team in baseball with five players with at least ten.
One of those five is Ryan Braun, who is still the leader among NL outfielders in All Star Voting. The lead has narrowed, though, and Braun now leads Jason Heyward by less than 3000 votes.
So, with the Brewers playoff chances back at 2%, are you ready to go for it? At FanGraphs, Jack Moore has a look at what the Brewers should do this trading season. Meanwhile, over 50% of voters in this week's BCB Tracking Poll think the Brewers should turn their attention to 2011. Howie Magner of Milwaukee Magazine wonders where all the optimism went.
Jack Moore is everywhere today: He also has this post at Disciples of Uecker about the impact of losing Mike Cameron.
In the minors:
- The Brewers have agreed to terms with fourth round pick Hunter Morris and ninth round pick Yadiel Rivera. The Brewers are going to be aggressive with Morris from the start, assigning him to Wisconsin to start his pro career.
- On the field, the affiliates went 2-2 last night. One of those wins came from the Timber Rattlers, where Kentrail Davis went 1-for-4 in his Midwest League debut and Scooter Gennett went 1-for-5 with a home run. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
On power rankings: SB Nation moved the Brewers up from 25 to 23.
Around baseball:
Athletics: Acquired first baseman Conor Jackson from the Diamondbacks for AAA reliever Sam Demel.
Braves: Signed outfielder Josh Anderson to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Placed starter Chad Billingsley on the DL with a groin strain.
Mariners: Designated pitcher Ian Snell for assignment.
I don't know how to feel about this: Jeff Suppan made his Cardinal debut yesterday and allowed just one run (a solo HR to Milton Bradley) in four innings. He also struck out four straight Mariners at one point.
I don't know if the Brewers get royalties for stuff like this, but they should: The Diamondbacks are becoming the latest team to get into the mascot race business when they debut the Legends Race, a competition between "10-foot tall men in uniform with large foam heads that will resemble players who have made a significant contribution to the organization on the field." Where they'll find four ten foot tall men, I have no idea.
In a related note, here's Baseball Reflections' look at mascots in Japan.
This morning's Mug is late because I have a hard time getting out of bed after night games, but it's even later because I had to find out how Dex from Gaslamp Ball saved a reader's mother.
Happy birthday today to 1953-58 Milwaukee Brave Ernie Johnson, who turns 86. (And thanks to FtJ for saving me from striking out.)
Now, if you'll excuse me, I've got my hands full.
Drink up.
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Misleading Stat
Bush has thrown less than 100 pitches in 9 of his 13 starts this season
That was because he sucked in some of them.
Some, but consider these:
April 14 – Bush allows two runs in six innings, pulled after 77 pitches
April 20 – Bush pitches seven scoreless, pulled after 96 pitches
May 6 – Bush allows one earned run in five innings, pulled after 95 pitches
May 16 – Bush allows three runs in six innings, pulled after 99 pitches
June 1 – Bush allows three runs in six innings, pulled after 86 pitches.
Plus last night, of course.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I could've sworn someone (dixie?) did a Pitch F/X analysis of Bush last year
His velocity dropped noticeably and consistently after about 90 pitches and hence his effectiveness similarly dropped off the chart. Obviously, there’s going to be some correlation between pitch count and the number of times batters have seen the pitcher that game, but I don’t believe those sub-100 pitch counts are purely coincidence. Macha isn’t afraid to go well over 100 pitches for his other pitchers.
I think someone looked at the numbers and is cutting him off under 100 pitches.
Was just going to comment on that
He allowed at least one run in his final inning in three of the four starts this year in which he reached 100 pitches. Same story last year.
Failure is just success rounded down.
Yeah, I think the difference is what's notable to me.
Gallardo, Narveson and Wolf all consistently go well over 100.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Arizona Legends Race
Oh please oh please oh please let Craig Counsell be in it (he’s one of the eight players you can pick in the linked sweepstakes).
Craig Counsell vs. Jay Bell would be epic.
Failure is just success rounded down.
by TheJay on Jun 16, 2010 10:24 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
We should vote him in
and then TRADE for him, can you imagine the defensive machine that a 10 foot tall Counsell would be!
I don't think it's a fan vote, sadly
I think you just pick who you think the four will be and if you’re right, you might win free tickets. If it was a fan vote, my day would be shot.
Failure is just success rounded down.
shucks!
i just voted for him, thinking it was a fan vote (it seems to require an AZ address, too, which is odd).
oh well, i hear dan haren’s on the block. maybe we can give them craig in a trade. :P
by Capt Science on Jun 16, 2010 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
He even hit one worth $1 MM for one lucky fan.
A fan had to select an inning and a player for that game. If that player hit a grand slam in that inning, they won the million dollars. That lady is some kid of crazy genius.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
What fun upbeat thread last night
we even got a little naughty ;) you can do that on West Coast games kids are in bed lol
I cannot believe we are going for a sweep tonight
winning cures a lot of ills
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
I'm actually getting sick.
My body doesn’t know what the F is going on with all this winning. I can get used to it.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Cubs: Addicted to losing, but they keep trying to quit.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
no one lose or one win is just enough of a hit to maintain your baseline buzz
You need to think of the Brewers like they are Heroin ;)
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
Sigh I really need to read what I write before I hit post.
Lose = loss
I suck
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
Right now a win tonight would be 3 in a row and a sweep on the road
that would be a nice buzz ;) Man makes your eyes red just thinking about it
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
Edmonds and the HoF
I subscribe to the method of taking a player’s best ten years together as a body of work and comparing them to the HoF standard. If you consider Jim Rice the Mendoza Line for HoF entrance, here’s how they stack up in their best 10 years:
Edmonds: 321 HRs, .295/.388/.559/.948, 1.97 TB/G, AS-3, SS, GG-8
Jim Rice: 309 HRs, .306/.358/.527/.885, 2.10 TB/G, MVP, AS-8, SS-2
"The Mendoza line"
If you use the Hall’s bottom players as a litmus test, then you’re going to have to re-open the doors for a lot of guys.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Also
If you era-adjust your numbers, it’s possible Rice’s top 10 > Edmonds top 10.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Eight gold gloves
Not arguing for or against, just saying that his numbers are close plus he was an excellent defender. Ozzie Smith was a career .262 hitter and got in on his glove and showmanship, Hack Wilson doesn’t even have 1500 career hits, etc. It’s obviously not an exact science if sportswriters are involved.
That's what I was thinking too.
Combine his bat and his glove and Edmonds at least has to be in the HOF discussion.
You don't need to build a bust of him, since he's already a statue.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jun 16, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The Brewers are just being win-teases
They’ll put together a little run here, just so the FO doesn’t trade away pieces that have value (e.g. Hart) to get something for the future. Then they’ll fade after mid-July, or after Corey regresses to the mean.
Just like last year, when we could have gotten value for Cameron or Hoffman, but instead we cut ties with one and resigned the other. How’s that working out for us?
Sorry if I’m being cynical. The other team I follow has been blown out the last couple of nights.
by Brew Angel on Jun 16, 2010 11:09 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
I'm working on trade deadline stuff for another project, and I'm wondering:
What do people think the Brewers can reasonably expect to get for Hart? There aren’t a lot of contending teams in need of a right fielder (I found two, and one is only “contending”), and I’m having a hard time believing either would give up anything that would be a contributor anytime soon.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
My favorite subject :)
If you did the deal at the deadline, his trade value would be about $11.7 million. Figure you add a 10% discount for overpayment on trades or free agent acquisitions and youre then at about $13 million. This number puts his value right around a #50-#60 on BA’s top 100 list for a pitchers.
Figure Hart could be used as a DH as well in the AL, and teams in contention would be in contention and need him would be Tampa Bay, White Sox and Giants and the A’s.
If it were me, these would be the trades I would make for Hart:
Rays for Alex Colome
White Sox for Dan Hudson
Giants for Thomas Neal and Dan Runzler
The Padres might also need someone like him but probably wouldnt pull the trigger because of Harts contract for next year. If they did, Hart for Simon Castro would be a nice deal.
Only?
I think you’re forgetting that this is a guy we were ready to throw into a dumpster three months ago – a guy who lost the opening day starting spot to a 39 year old outfielder coming off a year off.
I think getting a #50 caliber pitching prospect for him at this point would be incredible, and if a team calls to offer that Doug Melvin should do everything he can to make sure the paperwork is done before they have time to reconsider.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Does Doug know the meaning of the word "sell" though?
Id love to see him pull the trigger on a deal like that as well, but has he done a deal like that here? or at Texas?
It appears that the scouting department has taken on a new philosophy in the last couple of years at least at the amateur level, but on the pro side who knows? They are the ones that would have had input on Hawkins, Daivs and Wolf during last years offseason.
My fear there would be a prospect deal available for Hart, Melvin would go to Bruce Seid who would then go to his advance scouts for the various teams involved, and get a less than spectacular deal for him.
I think we may undervalue Hart here somewhat, given that we’ve watched him struggle day in and day out between 2007 and 2010. Power is hard to come by, even through trades, and a guy who is leading the NL in home runs, is a former All-Star, has shown flashes of 30/30 potential, and is under team control for another year could warrant a decent prospect if a team needs his bat.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jun 16, 2010 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
To me, I think the Padres are perhaps the best possible fit.
They’re starting Will Venable in right, so even with some regression Hart would be a clear upgrade. They also have a fair number of mid-level pitching prospects that could be packaged in exchange.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't really think the Padres make sense
for 2 reasons
1. PETCO Park is massive and Hart’s defense would be exposed as well as his power reduced significantly
2. They would rather cut payroll than add it, and Hart will get much more expensive next year. But for a team that is barely able to afford Adrian Gonzalez, adding an expensive RF that will regress doesn’t make sense
Eh. They can always non-tender him at the end of the year, only having to pay him about 2 Mil this year.
I think the NL Home Run leader will be highly sought after.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I think they're going to end up making more money than they expected this season, because they're contending.
And as a team that’s contending, they could probably gain even more positive PR by making a move to show they’re going for it.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jun 16, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
that's two 1B in the OF
i think the padres may be buyers, but that would give them two 1B in the outfield with KB on the other side. given the size of that OF, i don’t know if they’d want to do that. but i’m sure TGJR might put in a good word on hart.
on the revenue side, i thought there was an analysis that showed the impact of winning is typically not felt in the year of, but rather the year after. walk-up sales don’t have a sufficient impact, but it could lead to more season tickets and suite sales (and possibly ticket price increases) in the next year. so their budget this year would still be an investment.
by Capt Science on Jun 16, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
Brewers would look to fill for next year, right?
The Brewers should at least want a first base prospect or a productive bullpen arm that’s got a reasonable contract through next year. I don’t think the Brewers can expect notable pitching prospects – he’s just too inconsistent and team’s value them very, very highly.
I considered not posting this at all with backtocali’s detailed post, but I like hearing myself talk.
A lot can happen between now and the deadline. Maybe a corner outfielder will get hurt.
He could be packaged with Prince, too.
BtC hit it with the DH idea. An AL team that needs power somewhere in the lineup can make room for him. Then we don’t need a corner outfielder to go down, we just need a power hitter to go down.
If the Angels make a trade to replace Morales, they dont’ need to trade for a 1B, because they can have other guys play there. Frandsen and Napoli have been doing a decent job filling in there.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I wonder if it's possible they'll trade him to a team for a type B free agent, so they can take the compensation picks.
I doubt this will happen, as they are unlikely to find a contender willing to part with a type B player, but I know that was a large part of the motivation to trade for Linebrink.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Suppan
Listening to sports radio here in St. Louis and they’re talking about how the Cardinals saw simple fixes that needed to be made to Suppan’s mechanics while he was with the Brewers. Apparently he was slouching on the mound and now that he’s standing tall he’s hitting his spots. Personally I think they are in for a rude awakening, but I’m already sick of hearing how the Brewers should have seen the problems and fixed them early on.
Suppan just needed to play baseball the Right Way™ .
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
and with a better defense
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jun 16, 2010 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
i think the "cure all" for suppan
was actually just getting albert to touch his arm. that cures all… at least that’s my impression based on espn broadcasts.
by Capt Science on Jun 16, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder what they would be saying if Josh Wilson had hit safely in the first inning
Or what they’ll be saying a month from now.
Failure is just success rounded down.
You'd slouch on the mound if you had that albatross contract around your neck, too.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Jun 16, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Lip service
Vote of confidence to give the illusion he’s better then he actually is. Remember when Trevor was “tipping pitches” and that was solved? His system surely worked, so it had to be a small mechanic flaw.
Soup
is also tipping pitches. All of the batters know that he is throwing the “shitty” one.
Get well soon Ueck
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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