Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while failing twice.
In two out of three games in the Rockies series, the Brewer pitching staff kept the team in games and gave them an opportunity to win. Yesterday it was Randy Wolf, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings. In-Between Hops noted that he was pitching to George Kottaras for the fourth straight start: Kottaras went 2-for-5 with a double. After the game, Ken Macha suggested that the pitching staff might have reached a turning point.
Jim Edmonds was unavailable to play yesterday and is day-to-day with a sore right shoulder. If Edmonds can't go tomorrow the Brewers will almost certainly have to make a roster move: Joe Inglett hasn't been able to play the outfield for quite some time now, meaning the Brewers are down to three healthy outfielders.
One of those healthy outfielders is Carlos Gomez. He went 0-for-5 yesterday and struck out twice, lowering his 2010 OBP to .272. Brew Crew Daily notes that Gomez is actually swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone than he did last year.
Casey McGehee (hitting .188/.243/.313 in June) was given the day off yesterday, with Craig Counsell playing third base and batting fifth in his place. Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar wonders if McGehee's current skid is tied to regression to the mean or simply fatigue. Counsell went 0-for-4 with a walk in the game, and is now hitting .241/.317/.241 with no extra base hits in his last 25 games.
John Axford pitched a scoreless ninth in a non-save situation yesterday, but told the Toronto Sun he still doesn't consider himself the closer. He also cites some things he's learned from Trevor Hoffman about getting ready to work the ninth inning.
Other notes from the field:
- You Can't Predict Baseball notes that Manny Corpas' appearance yesterday was his fourth in four games for the Rockies. He's been used nine times this season on zero days' rest and hadn't allowed a run in those games until Saturday. Jim Tracy isn't ready to pull him out of the closer role just yet.
- Plunk Everyone has everything you ever wanted to know about Prince Fielder's HBP yesterday (making him the second major leaguer with ten) and Yovani Gallardo plunking Melvin Mora Saturday (tying him for 51st on the all time list).
- Randy Wolf, George Kottaras and Aaron Cook are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
- CoolStandings has the Brewer playoff chances at 1.6%.
- Here's yesterday's MLB.com video highlights.
In this weekend's lone roster move, the Brewers activated Todd Coffey off the DL and outrighted Chris Smith to Nashville (FanShot). If you missed it in the FanPosts, click here to see TheJay's case for Smith as the most mistrusted reliever in Brewer history.
Another day, another note on Prince Fielder: Stat Speak estimates Fielder's surplus value at $15.25 million for the remainder of his time under team control, and says it's probably not worth it for the Brewers to trade him at this point.
Ryan Braun remains the lone Brewer in position to be voted onto the All Star team, and Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker says Braun is the only Brewer position player who deserves to appear in the game.
Doug Davis could be back with the Brewers by the end of the week: He pitched a successful rehab start for Nashville over the weekend and is expected to make one more this week.
In the minors:
- Tom Haudricourt has a roundup on his top ten pitching prospects in the Brewer organization, and how they've fared so far this season.
- On the field, Jeremy Jeffress pitched another scoreless inning for Wisconsin yesterday. He has yet to allow a hit in four innings as a Timber Rattler, walking two and striking out eight. You can read about that and the rest of the affiliates' 2-1 day in today's Minor League Notes.
- It's opening day in Helena and Arizona: 2009 17th round pick Tyler Cravy is scheduled to get the ball tonight for the H-Brewers. You can see their full roster here.
- Meanwhile, many Arizona Summer Leaguers are coming into the United States for the first time. ESPN has a look at teams' preparations to help their prospects avoid problems with Arizona's new immigration laws.
- College Splits has a review of the Brewers' draft. Brewerfan.net's list shows the Brewers have signed 26 of their 50 picks. They've also reportedly signed undrafted free agent pitcher Reggie Keen, who pitched for Radford this season.
- One of those signed players is fourth round pick Hunter Morris, who skipped rookie ball and is playing first base for Wisconsin. Adam McCalvy has a look at other Brewer farmhands who have bypassed rookie ball.
- The Brewers have released 2001 1st round pick Mike Jones, who had been pitching in Nashville (FanShot).
- Minor League Baseball Prospects has updated their prospect rankings, and have Brett Lawrie (#47) as the only Brewer in their top 100. You can see their top 1000 here: Kentrail Davis, Cody Scarpetta, Evan Anundsen, Mat Gamel, Dylan Covey, Caleb Gindl, Jake Odorizzi, Eric Arnett, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Lucroy, Logan Schafer, Kyle Heckathorn, Scooter Gennett, Angel Salome, Taylor Green and 23 other Brewer farmhands appear.
- The Appleton Post-Crescent has a profile of Wisconsin shortstop Michael Marseco.
On power rankings: Yahoo has the Brewers holding steady at 24.
Meanwhile, this weekend featured a couple of great historical notes: Wezen-ball remembers the time Bernie Brewer was accused of stealing signs and FtJ has a Fathers Day-themed look at second generation Brewers.
Also, if you're looking for more on Father's Day, check out Miller Park Drunk's awesome post.
Around baseball:
Angels: Designated infielder Michael Ryan for assignment.
Astros: Designated reliever Casey Daigle, catcher Kevin Cash and outfielder Cory Sullivan for assignment.
Blue Jays: Signed infielder Nick Green.
Dodgers: Placed pitcher Carlos Monasterios on the DL with a finger injury.
Marlins: The team is expected to designate reliever Jorge Sosa for assignment.
Phillies: Designated pitcher Scott Mathieson for assignment and placed pitcher Antonio Bastardo on the DL with left elbow ulnar neuritis.
Pirates: Pitcher Jack Taschner has refused an outright assignment to the minors and is now a free agent.
Red Sox: Designated pitcher Boof Bonser for assignment and signed first baseman Ryan Shealy to a minor league deal.
Rockies: Placed Troy Tulowitzki on the DL with a broken wrist.
White Sox: Designated infielder Jayson Nix for assignment.
Yankees: Signed infielder Eric Bruntlett to a minor league deal.
The Rays are one of baseball's best teams, yet they consistently play in front of tiny crowds in arguably baseball's worst facility. As such, I'm curious to hear what owner Stu Sternberg will day at a press conference this afternoon where he's supposed to make an "important announcement about the team's future."
The Pirates, meanwhile, fired a pierogi for making a negative comment about the team on Facebook.
Elsewhere in poor management decisions, the Marlins gave away vuvuzelas to fans before Saturday's game. The result was about what you'd expect.
I don't know why I found this particularly interesting, or if anyone else will, but Braves catcher Brian McCann, who has struggled with vision issues for most of the last two seasons, appears to have solved the issue by giving up caffeine.
Happy birthday to:
- 1973-86 Brewer Charlie Moore, who turns 57 today.
- 1978 Brewer Andy Etchebarren, who turns 67 today.
- 2006 third round pick Cole Gillespie, who turned 26 yesterday.
- 2005-06 Brewer Carlos Lee, who turned 34 yesterday.
- 2002 Brewer Paul Bako, who turned 38 yesterday.
- 1993 Brewer Dickie Thon, who turned 52 yesterday.
- Davey Nelson, who turned 66 yesterday.
- Claudio Vargas, who turned 32 Saturday.
- 1971-77 and 79-83 Brewer Jim Slaton, who turned 60 Saturday.
- 1989 Brewer Jerry Reuss, who turned 61 Saturday.
Oh, and Blue Jays outfielder Fred Lewis is "the hardest man you'll ever see in capris."
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to set up my pendulum.
Drink up.
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Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? - Bill James
And “The Last Best League” by Jim Collins, about the Cape Cod League
Ball Four.
You suck if you haven’t read this masterpiece.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jun 21, 2010 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Especially if you have any interest in the Pilots.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Jun 21, 2010 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
If you haven't read Catcher in the Wry by Uecker
you’re missing out. There should be used copies available on Amazon, still. It’s pretty hilarious.
if you're looking for books, always check
They sell new and used books for DIRT cheap. I haven’t paid over $3.00 for a book in over a year (and I read a lot).
In regards to a good baseball book to read: the old standard “Moneyball” by MIchael Lewis still holds true.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
I used that site once
After three weeks they hadn’t shipped the book I ordered and they acted like my request for a refund was unreasonable.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
if they say
please allow 3-6 weeks for shipping before you submit your payment info, then they’re right. but logic would dictate that they should be able to find the book in a day or two and drop it in the slow-ass 5 day mail to get it to you within a week. 9 days or so if you get unlucky with weekends.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't recall all the details
I just found it ridiculous.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
Marlins
Their biggest home crowds have been the home opener and second game, along with maraca, thunder sticks, and vuvuzelas giveways. Marlins fans enjoy noisemakers.
Also, my post about Smith didn’t intend to say he was the most mistrusted reliever in Brewers history, just that he went the longest before getting a shot to protect a lead in a close game.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
I add an e to one of the two, Dan Quale style
or write “potato tomato”
but yeah…doesn’t work out so well in written form.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
$4.5M/win?
pardon me, but a 85 win season would be worth 4.5x our current payroll at that rate. I know there’s property tax and salaries of employees to consider, but that seems unreasonable. Also, a single additional win is “worthless” when you’re further away from qualifying for the playoffs. So, doesn’t it do our org some good to turn him over for cheaper parts that can help us compete in a year beyond the years he can help us directly in? I guess I just don’t get it:P
I don't get it either
It’s like spending money on advertising for an election. Unless you win, it was all a waste. If you win, it was all worth it. Why argue the difference? If you can’t win with your current team, why not build a team that can?
I think
That the $4.5M/win value comes from this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/win-values-explained-part-six/
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
I was pretty amazed
When I re-ran my trade value calculator on Fielder, I was pretty surprised how much his “down” year is really hurting his trade value. He is still on pace for a 4 WAR year, so there’s nothing wrong with that. He’s pretty much lost about half of his trade value vs what should have been only a quarter of it with nearly half hte season played.
I still think there is a team out there that would love to have him in their line up and that would give up a top prospect, or lower level guys, for his services for at the very least the end of this year. Problem with that lowered value is that maybe they get 2 or 3 A ball players where it could have been 4 or 5. And also, that $15mm amount is about what a top of the line pitching prospect is worh in a one for one trade. How many Brewer fans, and when I say fans, I mean the ones that dont know about prospects, or sabermetric stats, or ones that go to a couple of games a year to see Fielder hit dingers and have a cook out in the Miller Park parking lot, would be happy to see him go for some 19 year old pitching in AA ball?
I’m all for trading him for prospects, as long as it is a good trade, and no matter how low his value might be right now, for the very reason you mention.
"lost trade value"
is assuming that GMs evaluate him based on his production thusfar this year, not on projections that weight his past seasons stronger.
In other words, I don’t think his ACTUAL trade value has tanked. Just his abstract “trade value” that you are taking to be concrete even though it is not.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
True, but
there is lost value there, his drop in production though not in the terms that we might think of in running a projection for him in the sabre world, probably sits in some GM’s minds. Add to it the bad body issue, the defensive shortcomings, and his expected price tag in arbitration next year are all things that a GM might be thinking are things that might make them shy away from a Fielder deal, where if he were hitting .290 right now, with 20 HR and 50 RBI, they might be more willing to pull off that trade.
He’s still a power hitting first baseman, no matter how far his numbers have fallen, so that actual value you speak of is there, and an acquiring team, in the right park, with the right pieces to surround him with in the lineup, might pay the price for that value. But thats what we do here, isnt it? Debate and discuss advanced statistical measures as how they relate to the Brewers?
Whether its a concrete value, or surplus value, or a subjective value placed on him by an opposing GM, the numbers will most likely be the thing that determines that value. Heck, the Phillies paid Ryan Howard a large sum of money based on a subjective value they placed on his services, so anything is possible when it comes to a trade for Fielder.
I think if this seasons production lowers his trade value significantly
it would do the same to his potential arb cost after this season
Prince is a sure thing.
I don’t think you trade him for nothing. Look what happened to the Indians. We got CC for a top ranked prospect that has yet to emerge. Cleveland was too quick to trade him away for some quick value. Unless Melvin gets offered top pitching, he should sit on Prince until his contract is up. If he doesn’t resign, he still gets a type a pick out of it, which is better IMO.
by Mr. McGehee on Jun 21, 2010 1:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
how is a pick
better than someone who was previously picked, is more developed, and is performing well at a upper organizational level?
I’d take a player with LaPorta’s minor league numbers over a supplementary pick any day.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Prince is a sure thing.
I don’t think you trade him for nothing. Look what happened to the Indians. We got CC for a top ranked prospect that has yet to emerge. Cleveland was too quick to trade him away for some quick value. Unless Melvin gets offered top pitching, he should sit on Prince until his contract is up. If he doesn’t resign, he still gets a type a pick out of it, which is better IMO.
by Mr. McGehee on Jun 21, 2010 1:16 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
in that case....
I’m forced to agree:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Per MARGINAL win is they key.
Replacement level teams win ~48, so an 85 win team is paying for 37 wins. On the FA market, that would cost 167 million, but nobody pays their entire roster FA value. Taking into account pre-FA players, it’s more like 2.5-2.8 million per win.
Replacement level teams win ~48
Don’t tell that to Baltimore.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
yep
after reading the Dave C/tango piece that TheJay linked, I see that now. Wasn’t aware this was FA-only assuming-we-have-a-standard-number-of-arb-and-earlier-players-on-our-roster thing. It makes a bit more sense now, but considering we’re talking of trading Fielder BEFORE his free agency, his free agency value doesn’t come into the equation really.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes it does
because you are talking about surplus value. If Fielder is a 4 WAR player this year he would be worth $18M as a FA. He is paid about $11M this year so he has $8M in surplus value.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
but the team that trades for him
is “stuck” with his current contract, whereas a team that signs him in his free agency will be signing him for more than a year and a half.
I think you should be considering him as surplus value with respect to whoever else is available on the free agent market, not whoever might be in a standard free agent class. At least insofar as moving him this season goes.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Details just details
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
But what about the Brewers, who pay most of their money to below-replacement level players?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I like Macha's quote in the Axford Article.
I haven’t seen it before.
"I want Trevor to get four to get to 600," manager Ken Macha said. "I also want to keep my job."
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jun 21, 2010 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 5 recs
8 of Hoffman's last 9 outings have been scoreless.
The only one where he allowed runs was when Florida got all those week bloopers down the line. The Texas outing (2 H, 1 BB, 0 R) wasn’t very impressive on paper, but 1 hit was a bunt single, and the walk was intentional.
I wonder what it will take for him to take the closer’s spot back.
My guess is a tired Axford. If he pitches 2 in a row, and we’re in line for a save in the next game, I’m guessing Hoffman will pitch. We haven’t had that situation arise lately.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
And why not give him a try?
Ultimately, a closer is still a reliever trying to get 3 outs with the lead. Even if Hoffman isn’t as dominant as 2009 Hoffman was, he’s proving to be an effective pitcher again. Any effective bullpen pitcher has a good chance to get through one inning only giving up 1 run (in the case of a 2 or 3 run lead, of course).
I didn’t like seeing him out there for the 9th when he was getting shelled like a peanut, but now that he’s getting guys out and the Brewers aren’t realistically in the playoff hunt they might as well get him the last few saves he needs to get that damn banner down.
" And why not give him a try? Ultimately, a closer is still a reliever trying to get 3 outs with the lead."
One word: psychology
I know what you said about 3 outs is true, but players let their mind rule them sometimes.
Also “Any effective bullpen pitcher has a good chance to get through one inning only giving up 1 run” – I hope for less than a 9 ERA out of my pen:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
But psychology has not been the problem with hoffman
People on here have shown repeatedly that his stuff during the bad times has been almost indistinguishable from batting practice.
So if his stuff is back to at least acceptable then he should be fine. Of course he could just be getting lucky now, I haven’t seen any data since he was removed from the role.
If you’re going to argue that there’s some intangible psychological element to pitching in the ninth inning, it would probably be a good time to point out the whole “all-time saves leader” thing.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
just because he hasn't had problems psychologically before
doesn’t mean he won’t start now, given his recent problems with performance (which he has not had before)
That being said, you may very well be right.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I would guess
That Hoffman will again be made the closer in August some time, for him to reach the 600 saves mark and finish out the season in the role. Win, lose, or blown save, they will probably give him that shot.
Sometimes we overthink this stuff. If he’s throwing strikes and he’s not pitching underhand, he’s probably going to get some people out. If he has a long history of getting people out, he’ll probably keep getting them out. His demotion came because of a stretch of pitching that was totally anomalous to the rest of his career. If he suddenly becomes effective in limited duty, it’s just as likely that he worked out his issues than it is he’s getting lucky.
From a marketing perspective...
I could see the Brewers marketing “the chase to 600 saves” as a milestone. If people take notice and understand the accomplishment, it could fill the seats with a few 1000 more fans at home games. That is if you weigh the lose potential vs. the extra tickets purchased + achievement.
by Bush League All Star on Jun 21, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I think "the chase" effect will only kick in
when he has 599 saves. or 598 and is about to go on a long road trip.
even then the brewers could milk the attendance by having axford close when Hoffman has 599 for a while so that we keep drawing a few extra thousand.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Winnar. :)
I think this is probably a good choice. Can only do that so long though before fans catch on. But win-win!
by Bush League All Star on Jun 21, 2010 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions
but as soon as the fans catch on
and the FO catches on to the fact that the fans caught on, the fans that caught on and stopped attending may just miss him getting his 600th. So, it’s a losing situation for the fans that catch on right before the FO decides to let Hoff pitch for 600.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 2:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Are you a Sicilian?
Because I don’t think I should go in against you when death is on the line.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Jun 21, 2010 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Only lessor known
Never get involved in a land war in asia…
by SgtClueLs on Jun 21, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
two weeks without McCalvy?
noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bad news. Hopefully Uecker will be back soon!
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
by theBrouhaha on Jun 21, 2010 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions
That is a nice lookin' handshake by George and John right there.
Looks like they could’ve taught those disrespectful, untuckin’ jokesters a thing or two.
SRS BSNS
They are simply holding each others hands
because the desire to untuck is so great that they need help not doing it. Like an AA sponsor
Holding hands...
When asked why they were doing this, they simply responded
We are merely exchanging long protein strings. If you can think of a simpler way, I’d like to hear it.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
by Yar Nivek on Jun 21, 2010 12:53 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Kevin Cash
I suppose he will be outrighted and accept the assignment with Houston, but if not I wonder if the Brewers will try and grab him on a minor league deal so they have a guy with MLB experience to call up in case of injury.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
One man's garbage...
but I think you’re right that the Brewers could use a veteran back-up. Would Cash accept a deal like that, though? He’d be in the same position with Houston.
Why not sign him to an mlb deal
and just send Lucroy back to the minor leagues? He definitely needs more time at AAA.
are you being ironical?
good BA, good OBP, good CS rate.
I can see the “needs to learn how to work out signals with the pitchers” or “work on calling a game” argument, but other than that, what makes you think he’s not ready now? Lining out to thwart the brewers rally in the 9th the other night?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty sure everyone on the 25 man roster
could use more time in AAA. At least you could make a nonsensical argument for it.
Shruggity.
Suppan had no problem pitching to contact
nor did Looper
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Small Sample Size
He’s only played in 11 games. He needs to be playing every day to advance his development. If you like his numbers so far, then make him the starter (would be what I would say to Macha).
I dont think he can handle the starting catchers job right now because he hasnt had enough seasoning in minor leagues. He needs a full season in AAA before being fully ready to be a starting mlb catcher.
Pretty sure he is the starter.
Shruggity.
by Mykenk on Jun 21, 2010 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unless Macha's just lying right to our faces now.
Which could make the rest of the season more interesting, I guess.
SRS BSNS
also
in the offseason, melvin said he looked at a bunch of other catchers and saw that they jumped from AA to the bigs with little to no time at AAA. this list includes martin, suzuki, ivan rodriguez, and the “greatest” catcher of them all — jason kendall.
by Capt Science on Jun 21, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
He conveniently
gives you 4 names of guys who this worked out very well for
Its like saying he expects Dylan Covey to be a Hall of Famer because he is a right hander and Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver were all right handers.
I like the guy as the Brewer starting catcher, I just feel he needs more time of seasoning. The most important part of the position is the defense and I just think he needs a little more work.
I'll agree with you as soon as he starts to struggle
(Though, even then, the team had a clear need at catcher and it makes more sense to call a guy up early than to trade for an unnecessary replacement)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Off topic...
My friend is looking for a great Italian restaurant in Madison. Any recommendations?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I'd say Paisons
but meh. Not really excellent, but that was based on their old location, not their new, so they might be good now.
I think there’s a place out on Old University that’s damned good. About a mile to mile and a half off campus to the west. Somewhere around where you’d make the turn to go to the university hospital if you were so inclined. Sorry I can’t be more specific.
If you want great food (generally) in madison, try Buraka or SukhoThai. You know, assuming they still exist and have maintained quality.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 21, 2010 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
You're thinking of...
Lombardino’s. My sister had her rehearsal dinner there… very good.
Porta Bella used to be good, but I’ve heard that it isn’t quite as good anymore.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.





























