The Weekend Mug: Why I Still Have Hope
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 27, 2010 5:00 PM CDT
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PrintAs I am writing this, the Brewers are 33-41 and sitting 8.5 games out of first place and 9.0 games out of the wild card. With 88 games left to play (including today's game against the Mariners), I know that most people have probably given up on the 2010 season and are now looking towards a possible run next year or in 2012.
I, however, still believe that the Brewers have a chance to make a run towards the playoffs this season. I'm not overly hopeful, but I can still see a possibility. I admit that, with baseball at least, I am generally full of unbridled optimism and refuse to give up on the Brewers until it's 100% clear that they have absolutely no chance of doing anything in their season.
There is precedent for runs like this before, though. For instance, the 2007 NL Champion Rockies. That year Colorado won 21 of it's final 22 games and forced a playoff with the San Diego Padres to determine who would make the playoffs out of the NL West (which the Rockies obviously won). And, in our own division, the Houston Astros were 15 games below .500 on May 27, 2005. That season, they ended up winning 89 games, won the wild card, and went to the World Series. There is evidence that a team can make a miracle run to the playoffs when so far behind, so why can't the Brewers do it? I think there are a couple of reasons why the Brewers have the potential to be a team that can make that kind of run.
One large reason (literally and figuratively) that Milwaukee could come back is Prince Fielder. Though he hasn't been having a bad year, by his standards he isn't having a good year, either. Currently, the man has 15 HR and 31 RBI. Through 74 games last year, he had 19 HR and 73 RBI. He had 42 more RBI last year than he does this year. I know that RBI isn't a good stat, but with that big of a difference, I think it's safe to say that Prince just isn't driving in the runs like he was last year. Just look: With runners in scoring position last year, he hit .296/.427/.612 en route to leading the league in RBI. Thus far this year he is hitting a dreadful .164/.365/.233 with RISP. It might just be an off year for Prince, but I would expect him to regress back to the mean this season yet. This is in addition to his fledgling power numbers. Though he has hit a good amount of HR, his slugging percentage right now stands at .473, down from last seasons .602 and his career .542.
In fact, there is evidence right now that Fielder is heating up. In June, Prince has hit .244/.375/.593 with 8 homers and 12 RBI. Though he hasn't quite gotten on base as prolifically this month, it's a good sign to see the SLG% moving back up. And while his RBI numbers aren't quite up there yet, he has had an RBI in the last three games (four counting today). If Prince starts hitting like we all know he can hit, and the rest of the lineup keeps hitting like they have been, the offense should continue to be one of the best in the league.
The second reason is the thing that has plagued the Brewers the last two seasons: The pitching (other than Yovani Gallardo). The same pitching staff that currently has a 4.91 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, amongst the worst in the MLB. So why am I so optimistic that Milwaukee's pitching will help with a run? Basically, because it can't get much worse. Thereby, in my mind, it has to start improving. Particularly when the Brewers pitchers are underperforming compared to their career norms.
For instance, our $30MM number two pitcher Randy Wolf. He has sucked this year, no matter how you look at it. He's got a 4.92 ERA (bad) and a 6.04 FIP (worse). However, it's unlikely that a pitcher would, from one year to the next, go from being a very good pitcher to being one of the worst pitchers in the league. At least, not when he has had several years of being a very good pitcher. At some point, you would have to think that he will revert back to the mean and start pitching well again. Right now he's giving up half a homerun, striking out 2 less and walking 1.3 more batters per game than his career numbers.
The only pitcher that is possibly pitching slightly better than his career norms has been Doug Davis, who is striking out two batters more per game than his career average. Davis has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his FIP (4.67) is much lower than his ERA (7.56) which means he should definitely be in line to see his results improve.
If the starting pitching works it's way toward getting even close to league average, while being couple with the juggernaut that our offense would be with Prince Fielder finding his stroke, I feel as though the Brewers are the best candidate in the league this year to make a "miracle run" toward the playoffs. Do I think there is a good chance of this happening? Not really. But even with a small chance of it happening, I can still keep hoping that this season might just turn around.
So what do you think? Are you keeping hope like me or have you completely given up on the season? Am I completely off my rocker?
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Comments
It has just been a consistency issue this year
I feel our lineup is better then it was last year (even though Prince is having an off year). Our Starting rotation is better. Our bullpen is finally putting it together, and with Loe and Axford pitching well in the 8th and 9th, we have hope. The problem is we can’t stay consistent.
PS- I still support Macha and the staff. I don’t like Doug Melvin, but….whatever…..
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
See my comments from a couple days ago
regarding my thoughts on the possibility of a playoff run for the Brewers
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Tied for last in wins at home
If they can take advantage of this stretch of home games (5-1 so far) they can get right back in this. Will it be enough probably not but it may be a fun ride.
The last 2 weeks have already been more fun than the entire month of May was.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 27, 2010 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I am optimistic
St. Louis and Cincinnati stink.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jun 27, 2010 5:56 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs
Fargo smells as well
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
Then there are the stockyards in
Chicago, Arlington and KC. Of course, we have the yeast plant and the rendering business under the big bridge… Baseball, beer, and bad odors, they go together….
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't forget
Wolf’s got a 6.75 tRA as well.
And if you look back at 2009, he was somewhat lucky with his .251 BABIP and 77.3 LOB%, and his 3.23 ERA certainly outperformed his 4.06 FIP and 4.03 tRA, so you could make a case that regression was in order for the first part of this season.
Looking at this season’s numbers, I’m am significantly less optimistic than you are, Noah. The E-F alone is a mind-boggling -1.12, and he’s still stranding runners 5% more often than league average for starting pitchers. He has, however given up HR/BIA at a 9.63 rate, which is about 3.13 higher than league average, so at least we can probably expect the home runs to fall off some.
I think you’re right that Prince will begin to hit. But in the end, I don’t think the Brewers will make the playoffs for the same reason I believe in regression to mean: its significantly more likely (regression/no playoffs in 2010) that it will happen than it won’t.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
That is true.
If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t put a whole lot of money on the Brewers making the playoffs. As far as Wolf goes, I don’t think, nor have I thought that he would repeat last season’s performance. I do, however, believe that he should be able to pitch somewhere around a 4-4.4 ERA the rest of the season, which would go a long way toward upping the Brewers win total.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
Both FIP and tRA suggest that his ERA should only go up from here
Its not as if I root against the team. I just don’t hold out playoff hope at this point.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 27, 2010 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions
They were likely only a slightly above .500
team to start the year. No reason to expect them to be much better than that from this point on.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
This too
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 27, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions
This will help
This guy ranks the Brewers remaining schedule as the easiest in the majors (for fantasy pitching purposes, at least). A lot of the linked article is nonsense, but I think the general idea that the Brewers’ pitching staff should have it a bit easier from here on out is true.
by rob deer's moustache will destroy us all on Jun 27, 2010 6:04 PM CDT reply actions
Some other stats
Coming in to today, the Brewers pitching staff has been the third unluckiest in the majors with a +0.57 E-F (the Cardinals have been the luckiest, with a -0.62 E-F) and had the second highest BABIP in the majors.
Brewers fielders have been the fourth worst in the majors (-7.7 UZR/150 as a team), but there is probably reason for that to improve. For one, Gomez and Escobar have been floating around average, and I think there’s every reason to expect them to be much better fielders in the second half. Secondly, we all know Hart/Weeks/Braun aren’t good fielders, but they have been ludicrously bad this season (Hart is the “best,” with a -13.7 UZR/150, while Braun is at a Hawpe-like -22.4) and they should probably improve too.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I don't think there is much reason to expect Escobar to get much better, this season anyway.
I also don’t really think there is much reason to expect Gomez to help us much. Not with Macha playing Edmonds out there so much. No real reason to expect Braun and Hart to improve defensively. Braun never looked good in LF and Hart only had one good year a few years back. I think Weeks might be able to play better, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Our defense is bad.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Corey Hart’s career UZR/150 in RF is -3.7, and I find it really hard to believe that Braun has suddenly become a Brad Hawpe level outfielder. Also, Gomez is 13.2 R/150 below his career mark in CF. Even if he doesn’t play everyday, that could be almost a half a win improvement across the remainder of the season.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Outfield defense
Assuming Braun/Gomez/Hart only play 75 defensive games over the remainder of the season (at least Hart and Braun will probably play more) and regress to their respective career UZR/150, that would be an improvement of 18.7 runs (almost two wins) over the current team in the outfield alone.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
They won't regress to their career norms.
They will regress towards their career norms. I don’t think Hart is as good as his career UZR/150 anymore. He is getting worse as is Braun. Gomez won’t play anywhere near that many games the rest of the way. Even if they played to their career norms, this was only about a .500 team to begin with. Expecting much more than a.500 record from this point forward is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
So, how about 5 over .500?
respectable?
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
There is no reason to think Braun et al. are as bad as they’ve been this season. With a stat like UZR/150, it’s always better to default to a larger sample size (such as their career stats). And no, they aren’t going to make the playoffs based on improved defense alone… My point was that even just defensively they have every reason to pick up a couple wins over the second half.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Neither are trending in a positive
direction on their defense though. 45 games is likely the most Gomez will play the rest of the season unless Edmonds finally goes away.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Braun has been a lot more timid in the field this year, in my opinion.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jun 27, 2010 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I would completely agree
He looked better and more aggressive in the field in 2008 than last year or this year. Whatever happened to the sliding catches coming in? Has he made the “veteran” move of moving in toward the infield?
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Unbridled enthusiasm?
How about BRIDLED enthusiasm?
I have faith in these newer additions if they are allowed to grow into and expand their roles, we can end well above water.
I have a concern that Melvin feels the need to keep Davis and Wolf in the rotation. But look what is happening since we no longer have Suppan and Zaun on the roster. We are doing better. Not a coincidence.
I have a concern that the Year of the Power Outage will affect the Brewers more than other teams since we rely on power so much. Seems to me we have a team built for doubles. I cheer for doubles. Ducks on the pond.
As a fan, I don’t have to “play one game at a time.” For me, this weekend’s series in StL will tell me a lot about who this team really is.
Color me very enthusiastic!
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 7:55 PM CDT reply actions
Hopefully this convinces Doug Melvin to stop wasting his money on washed up free agents
for as much criticism as TT gets of the Packers, Doug Melvin should take some notes.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
If you could make a trade now, what would it be?
I always think there is a team that would love Fielder, Weeks or Hart. But, what do we need/get for them? I think defense! Maybe Fielder for some defense (2B) and a stud 2nd starter (probably the only huge hole in our rotation). I think Gamel can play 1st (most of his errors were throwing). So, would it be 2B defense? Then maybe Weeks for speed and less K’s and maybe a decent reliever. Where would you put the speedster and less K dude? Probably CF. So would GoGo be a 4th OF? Do you lose pop for defense at 2B? Save money? Fun job being a GM!!! I’ll still take the paycheck!
It almost seems that Fielder's mind is already somewhere else
and his corpus seems inflated again. Nothing permanent about weight loss. We need a future first base replacement now. The guys who can handle ground balls are too small. We need to get this situation resolved very soon so that the team can adjust now, not in August.
We need an answer in centerfield. Lorenzo Cain is buried in AA, but so was Lucroy. I’m not seeing nearly enough from Gomez. Go-go’s gone before spring training, maybe in a deal including Fielder.
I don’t keep track of the contract status of each player as many here do (thankfully.) But much of the trading possibles are probably dependent on having that knowledge. Maybe others will weigh in…..
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions
Contracts
The most simple resource there is for it, Cots Contracts.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
Thanks, very interesting! But
not being a numbers guy beyond old school ball, I’m still going to rely on others to fill in the important gaps in my best reasoning on trades. And, after all, Melvin and his staff are getting paid to get that job done. (My job is to make predictions based on hunches, watch what happens, and then bitch over their decisions.)
(Although the Crew’s 300% increase in payroll in a decade is mind-blowing. Sane business practice says the results should be better. But that’s a complaint for another post….)
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions
So trade Weeks (a guy with speed) for a speedy guy and put the speedy guy in CF to replace the speedy Carlos Gomez?
Sorry, but that one doesn’t make any sense at all to me. Particularly since we already have Hart, Weeks, Braun, Escobar and Gomez that can all steal plenty of bases.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 27, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agree. Any speedsters the Brewers have seem wasted
because the leadership is not committed to base-stealing. Macha has stated this pretty clearly. Same as Yost. “You can’t risk losing a runner for the big guns,” as the mantra goes.. The team is built around the home run. (I personally enjoy small ball, but hey I’m a Milwaukee fan all the way.)
If we trade for speed now, I’d say, “What for?” It will not be used by Macha.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions
And I'm not sure our speed burners
always have a clue about how best to use their speed. Too many gaffes on the bases. Put that on the coaches, at least in part.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Which is dumbshit baseball.
Sorry, it’s just stupid. Waiting on a 7% chance for a dinger is dumb, when 3/4 of the time you can put the runner on second and cash in on a single.
I have long advocated the Brewers stealing more bases.
Five guys who could steal at least 20 bases, and they are averaging 6.4 stolen bases between the five of them? Booooo.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
Well, you can't steal first, so two of those guys are out of the conversation
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
or run into the out and clear the bases.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
It doesn't matter if your runner gets caught stealing
or is stranded on base, you get the same result: he doesn’t score
A caught stealing results in one less chance at a hit.
One less batter.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Say you're correct about the 7% for a HR and 75% for a sac bunt.
As a team, the Brewers are hitting .261. So that gives you a (.261)(.750) = 19.75% chance of scoring 1 run.
But if you let the batter hit, you have a 7 % chance of a HR but there’s still a (.261)(.261)(2 outs) =13.62% chance of stringing together 2 hits to score the run. And that doesn’t even factor in the possibility of a double or triple scoring the run from first, and subsequent runs scoring.. or the fact that a HR scores 2 runs, while a single with a runner on 2nd scores only 1.
I like small ball, too. I think we should use it more with certain batters, and in certain situations. But with some of the guys (Braun, Fielder, Hart, McGehee) I’d usually rather take a chance with their bat.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jun 28, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
10% chance of scoring the run on an EBH
and another 16% chance scoring him on a single if he steals second. He’s out if he’s caught stealing, taking away (25%*10%) 2.5% of your EBH runs.
10% vs. 23.5%. Stealing creates RISP.
and 1/4 of the time you've gained an extra out and cleared the bases...the bad way
is it any accident that the highest sabre-stat teams for speed have the lowest stealing attempts? because the teams with more speed are wasting outs on the basepaths. You want to use your speed to get extra bases on the paths when the ball is in play
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 8:15 AM CDT up reply actions
I'd also like better defense and less k's (I think I said that...right, in my post)....
…sarcasm aside, Weeks doesn’t seem to have the speed we thought he had (or they don’t send him enough – besides 2007). If he is our long-term solution at 2B (which seems like the case), he needs to move to second in the order. Gomez could surprise and be a decent lead off hitter. He just doesn’t appear to be a starting CF for a contending team. I like keeping Hart’s speed. Escobar has a lot to prove, but is staying put. So, if you think about it, my post has one point; we need to get something (offensive and defensive and cheaper) than Fielder. I think this is the time.
The something has to be a replacement for Fielder
since, other than Edmonds, no one even has a 1st base glove on the team. Corey Hart is tall enough, but things could ugly when he’s got to react to ground balls or thrown balls in the dirt.
Lyle Overbay? ;-) Well, the Bluebirds can’t afford Fielder. The first question is, who CAN sign a guy for a $100 million mutl-year pact?
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 8:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Here's my best shot at THE trade...
… the moneybag Mets’ Ike Davis and Angel Pagan
in exchange for Prince Fielder and Carlos Gomez.
Someone would likely need to sweeten the deal. I don’t have a clue which side.
Who’s got the saw to cut the limb…?
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...I like that!
From the earlier post, I kind of thought the Jays could fork out some $$$. I could be wrong. I like this last post with the Met’s sweetening the pot with a potential starter. Or, maybe 2B or RF if we can’t get Hart or Weeks signed. I’m thinking its Davis, Pagan and a prospect at best. Although those Mets like to play loosey goosey :) Also, I think Fielder ends up in the AL. The Mets could try this year and next with him and then let him go as well.
I just think that's a pretty lopsided deal
An elite 1B, and an elite defender for a prospect who’s ceiling is lower than Fielder’s, and a guy who’d probably a 4th OF?
I wouldn’t even think its a good deal if it was Davis and Pagan for Fielder, personally.
The target return should be 3-5 minor league players for Fielder, depending on quality and position, in my opinion.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 27, 2010 10:27 PM CDT up reply actions
"Gomez could surprise and be a decent lead off hitter"
that wouldn’t be a surprise…that’d be a shock
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Don't mind him
He’s just following the Brewers Rant O Matic
I guess his shoe size is 10-13, his age ends in 9, F or W is the first letter of his last name (damn, no advocation to trade Braun, as I would have guessed), his zip code ends in 4 and I’m guessing he’s been a fan for 7 years.
how’d I do?:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 9:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Wow...who are you dogging and what are you having for a cocktail...
My zip code ends in ‘4’, but I’ve been a fan since birth (or a year or two later) 1970! I live in FL and still like an nice old fashion :) If that post was for me, I will check “Brewers Rant O Matic” just to get some logic! If not, well maybe I’ll learn something anyway!
I would like them to get to .500 first
Then I will evaluate if I think they can make a run for the playoffs.
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
Completely agree
I just dont think there is enough time for them to make a run. They would need to go on a 7 game run just to get to .500. And they would then need to win 5 of every 8 from here on out to have a realistic shot.
Apart from Gallardo, I just dont think the starting staff is built for that kind of run, and the young guys in the bullpen havent made a 2nd time through the league yet. Parra is the only one who has shown any promise really, and that then leaves you with 3 .500 or so pitchers rounding out the rotation.
Narveson hasn't in your opinion?
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
I like
Yo
Manny
Bushie
Narvy
and maybe Cappy.
But it ain’t gonna happen with Davis and Wolf around.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 9:58 PM CDT up reply actions
To be honest...
if that’s our rotation next year (or even at some point this year) I’ll start looking forward to college football season a lot more than I usually do.
That rotation makes me throw up a bit in my mouth. It sounds great that we’d be going with the “young guns” and all that, but stripping away the pinstripes for a minute, that rotation gives me no hopes of success.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
No
His last 4 starts have been in interleague games. Games where he has done ok in one start, pretty good in 2 others and just bad in one. Todays game was against a team that is awful at hitting. His starts previous to that, against teams in the NL were all pretty bad. He’s just too inconsistent.
Fair enough
but I have to admit, I like what I’ve seen out of him overall. Not looking at numbers, not looking at FIP, WHIP, XYZ or PDQ…But I like what I’ve seen out of him. :)
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
I for one..
Am waiting for the wheels to come off for Narvdog. Something smacks of being lucky to me, he pitched a hell of a game today… but he didn’t have to face Branyan.
and wouldn't have
Braddock was warming
excuse me while I throw up in my mouth
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I hope that throw up wasn’t directed at Braddock? Because, he has been far and away the best pitcher on the team in terms of FIP.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
yeah, well, I'm hung up on the results
as non-predictive as they may be.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the boys are coming together nicely!
Gallardo – 1st
Parra – 2nd
Bush – 3rd
Wolf – 4th
Narveson – 5th
Capuano – 6th/mopup
Davis – you never know
=======
The bullpen is starting to look solid. We might even have a trade with one of these boys! In any event, I am starting to feel good again. I know it might be next year and we might have to lose a big gun, but at least things are falling into place!
I'd swap Bush and Narveson around
Bush is a good #5 pitcher, nothing more, nothing less.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Upcoming contracts/Free agency
Those with contracts ending this year (assuming no options are picked-up):
2010 FA (buy out):
Hoffman (500K)
Riske (250K)
Davis (1MM)
Bush
Counsell
Gerut
Zaun (250K)
Edmonds
2010 Arby (year):
Fielder (3)
Hart (3)
Weeks (3)
Coffey (3)
Gomez (2)
Villanueva (2)
Parra (1)
Inglett (1)
For me, most of the FA list is cutting dead weight. No personal offense to these gentlemen, but we could do without the clutter. The Arby list is a little more interesting. We have 3 guys (Fielder, Hart, Weeks) who are coming up on their final year of arby who are, in essence, the heart of our ball club. Add in Coffey and we stand to spend a lot of money unless moves are made to get younger. Braun and Gallardo, as most know, are the only two long-term contracts that are on the books.
Thought this might be a nice little reference for those that don’t want to do the leg work at Cots…
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Thanks for doing the work I didn't do
Agree on the observation re the FA situation, with some exceptions.
Not sure the ownership is going to make a move on Weeks or Hart before October, but Fielder’s got to be on more than one of the big market teams’ short lists. Not all are set at 1st base. Also, Fielder would probably fit at a DH as previously mentioned, though he’d not likely be pleased at the prospect.
My enthusiasm is dependent on one or two crafty and speedy moves.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess I like the following to stay around (heathly):
Riske (250K) – keep and sign for another year (if healthy)
Bush – sign for this year
Counsell – sign for this year
Edmonds – sign for this year
Fielder (3) – trade
Hart (3) – keep and sign for another year
Weeks (3) – trade or keep (ya’ll kill me with this one)
Coffey (3) – no need
Gomez (2) – trade (I liked the Fielder pairing) or keep
Villanueva (2) – keep and sign for another year
Parra (1) – keep and sign for another year
Inglett (1) – keep and sign for another year (gonna be cheap…probably less that Cousell)
I would counter with this:
Riske (250K) – no need
Bush – Probably wants multiple years, will hit FA
Counsell – sign for this year
Edmonds – Thanks for the help Jim. Good luck.
Fielder (3) – trade
Hart (3) – is going to cost probably 7MM
Weeks (3) – trade or keep (ya’ll kill me with this one) – if kept, will cost probably ~4.5MM
Coffey (3) – will be around 4MM
Gomez (2) – will sign cheap
Villanueva (2) – will sign cheap
Parra (1) – will sign cheap
Inglett (1) – will sign cheap
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Gomez is in his 2nd year of arbitration but he was a super two.
We still have his rights for 3 more years after this year. Kick Edmonds to the curb.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Edmonds hits doubles, Gomez is working on keeping his shirt buttoned ;-)
Poor Go-go, he almost took Esky out on that popup today…
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 10:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Sure Edmonds can hit
but his body falls apart if he plays more than 2 games a week. He also can’t play defense. Wit, he can play defense just not at a competent level for a CF.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Can't argue with that.
That’s why I suggested a Fielder-Gomez trade even up with the Mets’ Ike Davis and Jose Pagan, with some tweeking. Would get us past a couple of overhanging matters before the summer is gone.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions
The Mets already gave up Gomez once, and they won that trade handily. Why would they take him back?
by warwick5s on Jun 27, 2010 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Touche
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 27, 2010 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions
I was wondering if somebody would bring that up.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
which is exactly what is says above
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
That list put Gomez in the same boat as Villlanueva.
I thought there needed to be some clarification. Villanueva is one year closer to FA than Gomez.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I gotcha now...
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Is Corey Hart worth $7 Million?
He was awful last year and in the 2nd half of the season before. This year he is putting it together again, which is nice. How long will that last though? I think Hart and Fielder provide excellent trade bait. I’m not saying I want Hart traded, I’m just saying he’s a good option.
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
I think the last couple sentances of your second last paragraph summed up my thougths well.
A miracle comeback is unlikely, but there’s enough talent on this team to make me hold on to the little hope that I still have left.
My goodness.
The Miracle Milwaukee Braves
seems like yesterday, just 53 years ago. Who’s gonna be the Hurricane Hazle this year? ;-)
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 10:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Just kidding. No such comparison applicable this year...sigh
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Somehow the team will need a corner OF
Brendan Katin gets the call, comes on like gangbusters, and is never heard from again…
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
Brendan Katin... Who?
Well, that’s the way it was with Hazle. Miracles do happen.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 28, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Looking like a few of us got a few things off our chests
in this thread…. Group therapy can be helpful.
"When you really, really break it down the only numbers that count is how many runs you help (produce) and how many runs you save. There’s really not a number for that." --Casey McGehee
by heybatterbatter on Jun 27, 2010 10:50 PM CDT reply actions
I'm just wondering why so many of given up any hope of anything this year...
The Brewers are 7.5 out of the central, with two weeks until the all star break. Cincy isn’t playing lights-out, the Cardinals are struggling for consistency…I’m just wondering why everyone seems to be giving up on the season this early…
I know it’s tough to turn your hopes after a slow start (especially after starting out to quickly in the past couple of seasons), but even though it may not happen, there’s absolutely nothing that’s told me that it won’t happen. I still think that 86-87 wins gets the division.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
by MadtownTim on Jun 27, 2010 11:29 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
86-87 wins may take the division.
That would require our team to play at a .604 win%. Not likely. We are just not that good. 3 teams have a win% that good right now. The Yankees, Rangers and Padres. Possible, sure just not very probable. That would also require both the Reds and Cards to play much worse than they have to this point. That is a lot that has to go our way to win the division and again we were not much better than a.500 team to begin with at the start of the year.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Agreed.
I hold out near zero hope of the Brewers making the playoffs. I think there is still a reasonable chance that they improve upon their record from last year and finish .500 or better, and that would be nice. But, painful as it is to say, if you’re not going to make the playoffs, it might be better to get the draft picks.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
The '08 Astros were 34-41 at this point and finished 86-75.
by Zorakathura on Jun 28, 2010 12:14 AM CDT up reply actions
That is why I said possible.
Just because some team one time did something doesn’t mean we should hope that our team will repeat it. We need to play to that level and two teams to play down to our level. That is asking a lot. If you want to hold out hope I have no problem with that. I prefer to think of probable outcomes not possible ones.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
We just won 5 of our last 6 and are still 7.5 games back. We did pick up 2.5 games but how many stretches like that should we really count on.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
They've played .600 ball for the last 20 games.
by Zorakathura on Jun 28, 2010 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I guess my point is
They are trending in a positive way right now.
by Zorakathura on Jun 28, 2010 12:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure they are playing better.
That was to be expected. They played way below their talent for the first 2 months. They also played .600 over the last 20 games you said. Even bad teams can do that. They need to do that over more than half a season. 90+% of the time only good teams do that. We are only an average team at best.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Yes, and good teams play .400 ball for 20 games.
The 90% figure I’m assuming is made up. Teams often have poor first halves and good second halves and vice-versa. This includes both good and bad teams. I don’t know why I’m arguing with you when I think they have almost no chance of contending. This team in recent years has a history of starting hot and swooning mid and late season. This year that dynamic has changed and I’m hoping that stays true.
We have about a 2% chance to make the playoffs so I think the 90% is probably low.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
That wasn't what you were referring to in your original comment.
And I would bet the number is well under 90% for teams going .600 over an 81 game period in a season.
I dont know about that
Coming into the season I had the Padres pegged as an 88 win true talent team, Brewers at 83. I think a lot of the Padres success has to do with the fact that they have built their team around Petco Park. A good pitching team in a pitchers park. Which I think is part of the problem for the Brewers, they have the good hitting down for Miller Park, but when you have a situation like that, you still need good pitching as well, because the opposing teams are going to have the same good opportunity to score runs that the Brewers do.
what state do the padres play in
fan boy?:P
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Geesh
As an fyi, my sn relates to Butters (on South Park) singing the Notorious B.I.G. song on an airplane on the Satan’s Sweet 16 Halloween party. I’m actually not a huge fan of the state of California. Apart from the fact that my wife is from there, I have no allegiances to the teams that play there.
The season is only half over, but what I thought about the Padres is coming true. I know your’e just kidding around partially, but I was just responding to SRBs thought that the Brewers are better than a team that has 11 more wins and a 9 game lead in the standings than them is not really the case based not only on those W-L numbers, but on true talent as well. Had nothing to do with the fact that the Padres play in California.
You have no allegiance to the teams that play in California?
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 28, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
find it odd that you took so long bringing up the factoid of your name's origin now
Rather than a year or so ago when we first started ragging you on the basis of your name
what team have you followed longer than any other team? what team do you consider yourself most a fan of (short term and long term)? what team do you like best right now?
I fully admit, that I’m a fan of the Milwaukee Brewers and only the Milwaukee Brewers. I’ve thought about adding the Giants, As, Pirates or Padres on to teams that I follow based on where I’ve lived, but in the end, I couldn’t bring myself to doing so. One team is enough to follow for me. So, I’ll always be a bit “homeristic” around here (albeit not usually an optimistic homer) and admit that you might be a better armchair GM than I am. However, you do appear to have disdain for several people here as well as franchise we follow.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jun 28, 2010 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
No one ever asked
about the origin of my name…
Have followed the Brewers longer than any other team
I am most a fan short term of the Rays and long term the Red Sox
I have lived here most of my life and go to at least 10 games every year at MP and watch almost every other one on tv
I really want to like this team. The Seligs killed it for me in the 90s and the early 00s, and now Doug Melvin is doing that now. I like the new approach the scouting department took in this and last years draft, and I like the fact that they have a great glove up the middle in Escobar, Gomez and a solid catcher in Lucroy.
I follow the Giants probably 2nd after the Brewers since my wife is a life long Giants fan, and I really like the pitching staff they have on hand. We are huge Lincecum fans.
I was a huge fan of the Brewers in the 70s and 80s when I was in HS and college and Harry Dalton was running the show. But even back then I had guys I really liked on other teams and was able to root for teams other than my hometown team. That “philosophy” has matured over the years and I simply now root for teams that I feel are doing it “right” (i.e. building up through the middle defensively with pitching and defense as the core building blocks). As Ive mentioned before here, I loved the 90s Braves teams that always had tons of pitching on hand and always seemed to make that one signing work for them.
Why does building a team for Petco Park have to be a pitching heavy team?
Couldn’t you get away with worse pitchers, and bring in good hitters to counter balance the pitcher’s park? Because that same strategy, bring in good pitching and defense into a pitcher’s park certainly isn’t working in Seattle.
A good team is a good team, no matter where they play. In a pitchers park, good pitchers become that much better. bad pitchers become that much less of bad pitchers. Good hitters become worse, and so do bad hitters.
The question is exactly the same as a game in any other park in MLB. Is your hitting better than the other team’s pitching, and vise-versa. Since both teams have to deal with the same elements, the better overall team wins.. regardless of the park.
Perhaps they just teach their guys how to pitch in Petco. Since not much leaves the park, a flyball pitcher will succeed. maybe they brought/developed flyball pitchers. But that’s different than focusing on bringing in pitchers in order to build a team around Petco.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Jun 28, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not going to keep arguing the point
as I have hope that something will be made of this season and you don’t. That’s cool. I have no problem admitting that it’s a long shot (though that sounds worse than I think it is), but there is a shot (and we’re not talking 1 in a million, here).
I really don’t think Cincy is going to continue to play the way they have. The Cardinals? With the way Dusty runs his pitching staff I can easily see them dropping like a stone come August. The Cardinals I see continuing to be inconsistent (but probably more consistent than the Brewers overall). But this Brewers team can make the Central VERY interesting. Too much offense and hopefully just enough pitching.
But we’ll agree to disagree on this point.
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
There's a chance, but
it’s way too small to start buying. Buying in this situation is what has turned the Astros into the Astros – the White Sox could make the same mistake this year.
Thus
Trading for Brett Cecil or Shaun Marcum =/= smart
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 28, 2010 2:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
The small amount of playoff hope still left does not warrant trading away our top prospect.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jun 28, 2010 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions
It's a different situation, though.
Getting a rental player is a bad idea. Getting 5.5 years of Brett Cecil for six years of Lawrie will help us for many years in the future, not just this year or the next year and a half, is trading something that figures to continue being a strength for the organization for something that is a HUGE weakness now and for the next few years.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 28, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions
His FIP this year is 3.68.
He was a pretty highly regarded pitching prospect, if I recall correctly, and his minor league numbers look good to me.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 28, 2010 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, if you look at this year
His 1.2 WAR is higher than every pitcher on the Brewers other than Gallardo by at least 0.5.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 28, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Scratch that.
1.6 WAR this year, so it’s almost a full win better than every other pitcher except Gallardo. My bad.
TW-S's on BCB since 5/9/10: 102
Acceptable: 2
by Noah Jarosh on Jun 28, 2010 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Less than halfway through the season, using WAR isn't probably the best idea
Please, also, stop disregarding his 2009 statistics.. A 6.01 tRA and 5.49 FIP in 92.7 MLB IP in 2009 isn’t what I’d call impressive. Its also worth noting that THAT sample is larger than the current year sample. He had a somewhat unlucky BABIP in 2009 (but not terribly so), and has had a somewhat lucky BABIP in 2010. He doesn’t have a particularly good K/9 for a guy who averages 91 MPH on his fastball, and touches 95 or 96.
TotalZone (via minorleaguesplits.com) says Lawrie is a 3 home -3 away defender this season so far at A, and a -2/-1 at AA. That’s not great, but for a guy who’s been playing the position for just a couple of years, I’ll take it. Couple that with his offensive potential, and I say he’s got a much higher ceiling than does Brett Cecil. So…no, in my opinion you’re not trading “strength for strength” because (and, BrewHaHeather has also pointed out the thinning of positional players throughout the organization) Lawrie is a much better prospect than is Cecil, in my opinion. So, you’re basically giving up the BEST your organization has to offer, for a guy who’s upside is probably less than Manny Parra’s. I’ll take the guy who’s upside is Jeff Kent.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jun 28, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I will give you $5 to ask Prince Fielder that
I've had it with this verkakte flippity-ship!
by TheJay on Jun 28, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Right now
we have more pitchers in our organization than hitters. I wouldn’t exactly call it a strength anymore.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jun 28, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 11:59 AM CDT)
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