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The Weekend Mug: Grading the Milwaukee Brewers


Today, the Brewers played their final game before Ryan Braun and Corey Hart (and maybe Yovani Gallardo, if he decides to attend for fun) head off to Anaheim for the MLB all-star game.  And, since the all-star break is often used as the traditional mid-point in a season, I figured what better time to take a look at how Brewers players are doing and subjectively give them letter grades on their performances.

How I'll be doing this is looking at each player and determining how they've been playing based on their stats (of course) while weighing in the expectations of the player that most people would have had at the beginning of the season.  Any stats I'm using are current as of this morning. Also, I'll be doing every player that has played an inning for the Brewers this year, whether they are still on the team or not.

So let's get started!

John Axford, P - The man, the myth, the Ax.  Since being called up on May 15, Axford and his amazing mustache have commandeered the closers role and ran with it.  In 22 games, Axford has a 2.88 ERA and a 2.40 FIP.  He has nearly three times as many strikeouts as walks and has converted 10 saves without blowing a single one.  And he's doing all this with opposing batters hitting a lucky .330 BABIP.  Grade:  A

Follow the jump for the rest

Star-divide

Zach Braddock, P - At the beginning of the year, before the emergence of Axford, Braddock looked like he was set to become the Brewers closer of the future.  There would be nothing wrong with him becoming a dominant setup man and giving the Brewers a great 8th-9th inning duo, though.  Braddock has pitched in 19 games (16.2 innings, as he has been used, unfortunately, as a lefty specialist on occasion) since being called up.  His 4.32 ERA belies an FIP of 1.38.  He has a K/9 rate of 11.88 compared to a BB/9 of 2.70.  Basically, his ERA is bloated due to an extremely high opponent BABIP of .444.  Grade: A

Ryan Braun, LF - He hasn't been the Ryan Braun that we all know and love lately, that's for sure.  There's been discussion around these parts that he's not 100% due to an injury sustained early in the year, and/or he's phoned it in some this season, and/or his business ventures are distracting him, and/or he just needs a mental health day or two (which he got).  At the start of June, Braun was hitting .318/.387/.532, basically what we've come to expect from him.  Since June 1, though, he has been hitting .250/.282/.385 with just four homeruns.  Ew.  Bill Hall hits better than that. Craig Counsell has been hitting better than that.  As it stands now, Braun is hitting .289/.344/.468.  If the Brewers management honestly thinks the team can still make a run this year, they need Braun to get back on track now.  Grade: C+

Dave Bush, P - ERA-wise, thus far 2010 is one of the best seasons of Dave Bush's career.  His 4.10 ERA is topped only by his rookie season, where he posted a 3.69 ERA.  In terms of FIP, this year is right in the middle of the pack for Bush, as he currently stands at 4.87.  And xFIP has this as the worst season of his career.  He's certainly not helped by the fact that he doesn't strike out a whole lot of batters (4.89 K/9) and that he has the highest WHIP he's ever had (1.495).  He's probably a good #5 starter, but this is Bush's last year of team control, and I would be surprised if he was resigned for next year.  Grade: C

Chris Capuano, P - He worked hard to get back from his second Tommy John surgery, finally made it back to the big leagues, and is hardly being used by Ken Macha.  In just 8 games, he has a 4.35 ERA and a 3.70 FIP.  His WHIP is really high (1.839) but I would expect that to normalize if he was given consistent playing time.  Grade:  Incomplete

Todd Coffey, P - The Coffey's not as strong as I like it.  He's not nearly as dominant as he was the last two seasons with the Brewers, as his WHIP has jumped to 1.426 and his ERA to 4.54.  His FIP is actually the exact same as he finished with last year, 3.65.  But last year, his WHIP was nearly .3 lower.  Grade: C+

Craig Counsell, INF - The Deity might be showing his age this season, finally.  He has a .238/.306/.308 batting line this season (better than Ryan Brauns June/July).  What little power he had is completely gone and he's not even getting on base at a league average rate anymore.  Maybe there's some worth in being a veteran clubhouse presence, but that' not anything we can measure.  After having a resurgence last year, I hope this years .282 wOBA is enough to convince him to finally retire.  Grade: D

Doug Davis, P - I don't like Doug Davis very much.  He's not a very good pitcher, he makes games take forever, and he cost the Brewers $4.25MM this year for his poor pitching.  He has a horrendous 7.51 ERA (partially due to his oppenents .398 BABIP, I'm sure) and a bad 5.26 FIP.  He is striking out a batter more per nine innings, so good for him on that.  I can't wait until he's gone again, though.  Grade: D+

Jim Edmonds, OF - I loathe Jim Edmonds, but I can't deny that he has been playing much better than I would have expected him to.  His .269/.333/.439 line is good for a .342 wOBA.  He has even been above average defensively, if you want to trust a half season of UZR for that, which probably isn't really advised.  I still don't like him playing center field, but with Carlos Gomez showing us just how bad of a hitter he can be and Corey Hart having a renaissance, there are no other options in CF until Jody Gerut comes back from his injury.  Grade: B

Alcides Escobar, SS - When the Brewers traded JJ Hardy to make room for the 23 year old Escobar, everyone knew that he wasn't going to light the world on fire with his bat (and he absolutely hasn't).  What was expected was phenomenal defense.  Unfortunately, that hasn't quite shown up, either.  Errors aren't a great stat for judging defense, but 14 errors in half a season is Ryan-Braun-at-third-base-esque.  His UZR is right around average, but again, a half season of UZR isn't a very good indicator, either.  Hitting-wise, Escobar has a line of .240/.298/.323.  He may not be lighting the world on fire yet this season, but he hasn't been worthless, either.  Grade: C-

Marco Estrada, P - I forgot he was even a Brewer.  Grade: Incomplete

Prince Fielder, 1B - This is a tough one.  He's been hitting better than he did in 2006 or 2008, but hitting much worse than in 2007 or 2009.  Right now, he stands at a .267/.399/.497 line with 20 HR and just 39 RBI.  Basically, he's slugging about fifty points less than his career average and a hundred points less than last year.  His batting average is lower than it should be.  And for some inexplicable reason, he has not been nearly the RBI machine that he has been in the past.  He is walking a lot, which is good.  Since the beginning of July, he has been on a hot streak, hitting .333/.511/.636.  But he has just four RBI in ten games.  If both he and Braun were hitting like they did last year, there might not be any doubt that the Brewers would be contending this year.  Grade: B-

Yovani Gallardo, P - He has a really crappy chinstrap beard.  That and a high walk rate are his only imperfections.  He has cut the walks down from last year, though, from a 4.57 BB/9 in 2009 to 3.87 in 2010.  He's still striking out a ton of batters, and he cut his HR/9 in half this year--from 1.02 in 2009 to 0.48 this year.  He has a 2.58 ERA, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.46 xFIP, and a 3.42 tRA.  He made the jump to being one of the best pitchers in the NL this year.  His opponents BABIP might even be a teensy bit high at .311, too.  And he is a really, really good hitter for a pitcher.  And he signed a long term contract with the Brewers in the offseason.  My god I am in love with this man.  Grade: A

Jody Gerut, OF - He's only had 74 plate appearances and has been injured for a while, now.  He wasn't hitting well when he went down, either, standing at a .197/.230/.366 line.  He's a good defender in the outfield, though, and obviously not as bad of a hitter as this season was showing.  I like having him around as a fifth outfielder.  Grade: D+

Carlos Gomez, CF - Oh Carlos, you can be so exciting and so frustrating at the same time.  Gomez seemingly has all the talent in the world, and just can't seem to ever pull it together.  This year, he's hitting .224/.278/.353, good for a .288 wOBA.  He's clearly a superior defensive outfielder, but that barely makes up for his terrible offense.  I still wish he would steal more than he has been, despite the discussions we've had on it in the past week.   He has a very low BABIP at .265, but he clearly needs to learn to walk more and be more selective at the plate.  With this season going down the toilet, I would like Gomez to start nearly every day in CF and see if consistent playing time would help him. Grade: D+

Corey Hart, RF - At this point we all know that he pretty much lost his starting job to Jim Edmonds in spring training, only to light the world on fire and earn a starting OF spot in the all-star game.  Hart has probably been the best hitter on the Brewers this season, surprisingly, with a .289/.351/.565 line with 20 HR and 63 RBI.  He's been awesome, and hopefully the Brewers can trade him for a good return.  The only reason I'm not giving him an A is because his defense is still pretty poor.  Grade: A-

Latroy Hawkins, P - I think most people on this site know that Hawkins isn't as bad as his 9.26 ERA would suggest.  Hawkins opponents have a completely unsustainable .421 BABIP against him, which will regress to the mean sooner than later.  The only problem that Hawkins has been having this year is a high walk rate, as he currently has a 4.63 BB/9.  With a 3.96 FIP, Hawkins will be just fine.  Grade: B+

Trevor Hoffman, P - Should retire.  Grade: F

Joe Inglett, UT - He's been hitting really well this year when he has gotten the opportunity.  In 76 plate appearances, he has a .333/.421/.515 slash line playing OF and 2B.  I'm not sure how good he would be at SS or 3B (he's only played a handful of games at either spot in his career), but if he's passable I would rather see him backing those spots up over Counsell at this point.  Grade: B

George Kottaras, C - He who hates singles.  Kottaras has 16 extra base hits compared to just 11 singles.  He's hitting a good .206/.333/.427 slash line with 6 HR and 20 RBI in 41 games.  It would be nice to see the average up a little bit, but not necessary.  For a backup catcher that is under team control through 2014, I'll take that kind of hitting any time.  Though there aren't any good metrics for catcher defense, what I've seen hasn't impressed me much.  Grade: B-

Kameron Loe, P - Since being called up, he's been a part of a very strong Brewers bullpen.  A 1.59 ERA and 3.19 FIP demonstrate how well he has been doing.  He strikes out a little over seven batters per nine innings while walking just three.  However, one might expect Loe to get worse as he has been rather lucky as opponents have just a .193 BABIP against him.  Hopefully it won't hurt him to bad when some of those outs start dropping in for hits, but we'll see.  Grade: B

Jonathon Lucroy, C - I like Lucroy a lot, and even was able to be in attendance for his first career HR.  He hasn't been hitting great, but he hasn't really struggled, either, with a .267/.300/.372 line.  That's probably about what we can expect for the rest of this season, too.  Again, there are no good defensive metrics for catchers, but from what I've seen Lucroy has been decent.  He will probably be a solidly good, not great catcher for the Brewers for many years to come, and I for one think that sounds great after seeing the revolving door of catchers the last decade.  Grade: C+

Casey McGehee, 3B - He started the year off with a bang, hitting .305/.372/.573 through the month of April, with 5 HR and 19 RBI.  He's still hitting well--now at .277/.345/.461 with 13 HR and 53 RBI--but not quite as well as he did last season or the beginning of this year.  The Brewers have control of him through 2014, though, and he should be very valuable as their everyday 3B as long as he's not needed to be the star hitter on the team (which he shouldn't).  His defense isn't terrible, but it's nowhere near good either.  He'll probably be looked at as the fourth or fifth best hitter on the team, and I think with a slash line like his the Brewers should be pretty happy with that.  Grade: B

Chris Narveson, P - The Narv-Dog is weird.  It seems like he'll have a couple really bad starts, then all of a sudden pitch a gem, particularly if a starting pitcher who was injured is due to be back.  He hasn't really been good, but I can't say he's been bad.  I would love to have him as a spot starter rather than being in the actual rotation, personally.  He has a 6.02 ERA, but a more indicative measure of his performance is the 4.71 FIP.  I don't know.  He's been OK, nothing better, nothing worse.  Grade: C-

Manny Parra, P - Basically, you can take a lot of what I said about Narveson and apply it to Parra, except Manny has been in the bullpen more and has pitched better, with a 4.65 ERA and 4.27 FIP.  It's nice to see this from Parra, at least, after the rough season that he had last year, when he had a 6.36 ERA.  He's striking out around 1.5 more hitters per nine innings than last year, while walking about half a man less.  Hopefully his development continues.  Grade: C+

David Riske, P - He's pitching as well as he ever has for the Brewers.  His 2.31 ERA is actually lower than his FIP of 4.06, which, I think, makes him one of two Brewer pitchers who has done that so far this season (Randy Wolf is the other).  It's interesting, his ERA has been lower than his FIP most of his career, actually.  Either way, he isn't striking out many men, nor is he walking many.  He's been a good relief pitcher in a strong Milwaukee 'pen.  Grade: B

Chris Smith, P - Pitched a whopping 3.1 innings this year.  Grade: Incomplete

Adam Stern, OF - Gets an A for being a team player, but didn't do anything for the actual team.  Grade: Incomplete

Mitch Stetter, P - Pitched 3.2 really bad innings.  Grade: Incomplete

Jeff Suppan, P - HAHAHAHAHA, I hope you choke on him and die, Cardinals. Grade: F-, Grade for choice of team to go to after getting released: A+

Claudio Vargas, P - A 5.12 FIP in 19.2 innings earned him a release.  The Brewers bullpen has been stronger since.  He did strike out nearly two batters more per nine innings this year than he has over his career, so that's nice.  Grade: D

Carlos Villanueva, P - Yet another piece in a very good Brewers bullpen.  A 4.26 ERA and 3.66 FIP is very solid.  He's pitched 44.1 innings and struck out 55 batters while walking just 19.  He's also been giving up just 1.02 HR per nine innings.  This Brewers bullpen should be very good for the next few years.  Especially after Hoffman is gone.  Grade: B

Rickie Weeks, 2B - One of my favorite Brewers has been having another very good, if underrated season.  Weeks continues to do what he does best, getting on base at a high rate (.369 OBP, best mark in his career) while showing some power (.448 SLG) and striking out a good amount (101 Ks).  He's already just one short of his career high of 16 HR.  He already has his career high in RBI, as well, at 52.  My only complaint is he has just 6 stolen bases.  I want more stolen bases!  Grade: B+

Randy Wolf, P - The thirty million dollar man hasn't been worth it so far this season.  He has a bad 5.74 FIP to go along with a not good 4.49 ERA.  He's been striking out nearly two batters less per nine innings than in his career and has been walking one more per nine.  He's also giving up 1.55 HR per nine innings.  And all of this has come with opponents actually being unlucky against Wolf as they have just a .273 BABIP against him.  Hopefully he figures out how to be good again because I'm sure nobody wants Jeff Suppan v2.0.  Grade: D

Gregg Zaun, C - His career could very well be over after the injury he suffered earlier in the year.  His Brewer career almost certainly is.  He was hitting a very nice .265/.350/.392 on the season.  Oh well, now we get to see Jonathon Lucroy, which I don't mind.  Hope you heal well triple G!  Grade: B

That should be everyone.  What do you disagree with me on?

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I think your grades are fair

And accurately sums up our season.

If I have to contest anything, it would be Kameron Loe’s grade. I think he has pitched admirably this season since being called up. It’s to that point where if the Brewers are up, and he starts pitching in the 8th, I feel the game is over and just chalk up a W in our win column. That’s about all I can think of at this point though. Perhaps someone will come out with other valid points.

"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi

by Jabooty on Jul 11, 2010 6:27 PM CDT reply actions  

I think that sentiment is reflective of his ERA

while his grade is more focused on FIP and BABIP as explanations for the regression we will probably see from him in the second half as he has been lucky thus far

by dtmeyers on Jul 12, 2010 9:23 AM CDT up reply actions  

yeah i get that

but i was trying to come up with some form of critcism. haha.

"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi

by Jabooty on Jul 12, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Latroy Hawkins is definitely a C/D

He’s been unlucky but hes been hurt and useless. He hasn’t helped the team this season. And he costs a bunch of money.

I think Hart deserves an A just because his defense is average but his bat has more than made up for it.

Dave Bush should be a B- i think.

Inglett deserves an A just because hes done everything right given the playing time hes gotten. You can’t knock him for playing time.

I only watch the games for Taiilgate Tips.

by jmag043 on Jul 11, 2010 6:39 PM CDT reply actions  

Agreed on Hawkins and Inglett.

Hawkins is getting paid more than $3 million this season, and so far he’s pitched all of 10.2 innings. Unless those innings were all scoreless, there’s no way he deserves anything higher than a C. I get that you and other folks here (Mykenk specifically) are leading the Hawkins-isn’t-nearly-as-bad-as-you-think-he-is cause (and I’m with you on it), but I think that in this case, it’s blinded you to the overall lack of value he’s provided the team this year.

And on Inglett, what more do you expect him to do, short of clubbing the kneecap of one of the guys starting over him? Compared with our expectations for him, he’s been phenomenal – exactly what Counsell should be.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 11, 2010 11:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Inglett maybe should be higher, you're right. His numbers are (obviously) unsustainable and somewhat lucky, though.

I’m sticking with Hawkins, though. If you’re going to dispute him, would you want Braddock down, too? He’s only got 16.2 innings.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 12, 2010 12:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

Braddock has actually pitched 33.2 innings

But it’s not his fault that half of them were in AAA. I know the injury isn’t technically Hawkins’ “fault” either, but he’s a lot more responsible for it (and especially his recovery from it) than Braddock is responsible for the GM’s decision over whether to call him up.

by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 12, 2010 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

also

Inglett’s been hurt. I’d knock some points off because he hasn’t been healthy enough to start all that often.

by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 12, 2010 6:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

More trade stuff:

Phil Rogers via Twitter: “#Rays appear to be getting serious about #Brewers’ Corey Hart. TB has pitching to trade with Futures starter Jeremy Hellickson ready.”

I’m not sure how that trade makes sense, unless Rays plan using Hart at DH (if they need an OF they have Desmond Jennings waiting in AAA).

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 11, 2010 7:26 PM CDT reply actions  

I'm not sure how that makes sense because Hellickson is worth waaay more than Hart.

Unless he means they would trade somebody on the major league roster and call up Hellickson.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 7:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

That would be the theory I subscribe to

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Jul 11, 2010 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Hopefully Wade Davis....

but i wish it was matt garza

I only watch the games for Taiilgate Tips.

by jmag043 on Jul 11, 2010 8:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

If that's the case...

do it in a heart beat Melvin!

"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi

by Jabooty on Jul 11, 2010 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

FIP

my only problem with this is you used FIP instead of xFIP so you corrected for some luck but not all of it. I’m glad you didn’t get hung up on ERA though because that is a terrible way to judge pitchers.

by Ender on Jul 11, 2010 7:42 PM CDT reply actions  

Yeah.

I guess using either FIP, xFIP or tRA is kind of a pick your poison type of thing.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m inexperienced in advanced metrics, but is it safe to assume that some players are exceptions to them. Maybe Hawkins babip is high because he wasn’t making quality pitches? Could a pitcher or hitter just be “luckier” than others? When Ted Williams hit .400 I’m sure his babip was extremely “lucky” as all good hitters are. Kotteras has and extremely low babip. But he also hits weak grounders constantly. Any thoughts?

by alchemyindex on Jul 11, 2010 8:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

The Sabermetrics Movement

is great for baseball and has taken this original game of statistics to the next level.

That said, it does not hold the answers to the universe. Crazy stuff happens in this game, and stats will never be able to fully distinguish between luck and skill. The best way to evaluate a player is to see him with your own two eyes and compare what you see to the statistics. An expert opinion doesn’t hurt either.

In conclusion: feel absolutely free to draw your own conclusions, but Sabermetrics does provide a nice guide for those conclusions.

by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Jul 11, 2010 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

^^^^THIS^^^^

"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra

by mnbrewer on Jul 12, 2010 4:03 AM CDT up reply actions  

As I understand it, what you’re saying is entirely true for hitters. Some players can maintain a relatively high BABIP simply because of their specific skill set (Ichiro is a great example). But for pitchers it’s much less under their control and, though their BABIP can fluctuate a lot from season to season, .300 is a decent benchmark and anything in either direction starts to become indicative of luck.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 11, 2010 8:32 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Not necessarily

Pitcher, just like hitters, will be either lower or higher than .300 with their BABIP. Parra is a prime example of a pitcher who will have a BABIP that just doesn’t jive. He might be in the .330-.340 range, or has for quite a few years to put it more correctly. Really to determine luck you need to look at each player.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 11, 2010 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Parra still only has 402.0 career innings (roughly two full seasons?) and his minor league BABIP was significantly lower. I think it would be extremely rare to find a pitcher stay at Parra’s career .354 mark for a long period of time. BABIP can fluctuate a lot from season to season but in the long run the vast majority of pitchers will even out at around .300.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 11, 2010 11:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think he has been

a little unlucky but even his MiLB BABIP was .321. BABIP needs to be looked at on a player by player basis. Parra will probably always have a higher than “normal” BABIP.

Of course the vast majority will be around .300 but to just assume .300 and not look at pitchers on a player by player basis is just sloppy and reckless. That is the biggest weakness of FIP. It takes batted balls completely out and it shouldn’t.

My guess is that the pitchers who get hit hardest and would have a higher BABIP usually are out of the league pretty quickly. Harang and Lackey are 2 examples of pitchers with a career BABIP over .300 I fond without much effort.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 11, 2010 11:50 PM CDT up reply actions  

Doug Davis' career BABIP is .313

Guys with high WHIP’s will generally either give up a lot of walks or have a higher than average BABIP.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 11:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

FWIW

A list of all pitchers with 1000+ IP since 1993, sorted by BABIP.

Same list, but with a minimum of 100 IP.

Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.

by TheJay on Jul 11, 2010 11:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Trevor Hoffman on the other end just behind Mariano Rivera

I wonder if he was first all time prior to this season

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 12, 2010 12:02 AM CDT up reply actions  

Sad fact, by the way: Hoffmans BABIP is close to league average this year at .305.

Are there two different formulas for BABIP? Fangraphs and B-Ref are different for both Rivera and Hoffman.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 12, 2010 12:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think so

Fangraphs has Rivera at .190 and B-R has him at .181.

B-R BABIP = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF) => (16-1)/(117-1-33+0) = 15/83 = .181

Rivera has 0 SH or SF and 1 ROE, including the ROE as a time on base (it is already an AB) gives 16/83, or .193. Now, 16/84 rounds to .190, so I presume they add something to their denominator, as well.

I have wondered what the difference is a couple times here and tried to look it up on Fangraphs and Google and can’t find an answer. I had thought foul outs were involved, but they, with or without ROE, are not the answer either unless I’m making a mistake. It would be nice if they made it easy to find their formula.

Regardless, including ROE and calling it batting average is confusing.

Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2010 6:43 AM CDT up reply actions  

Through 2009 he was at .265

Rivera was at .266

Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.

by TheJay on Jul 12, 2010 6:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

Sure, higher than normal, but he’s been in the .350-.380 range. That is unlucky by any standard unless he’s a complete anomaly.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 11, 2010 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

(I’d say .280-.320 is still broadly within the range of a .300 baseline for pitchers, but I don’t think many pitchers can stay outside of that zone for a long period of time. Unlike hitters, where some guys can spend their entire careers in the high-.300s, for example)

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 11, 2010 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think a pitcher can spend a good

part of his career below .300 pretty easily. If a guy is much over .320, my guess is they get sent back to AAA or bounce around the league

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 12, 2010 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions  

He might be.

He might not. At this point I think it is better to assume he will be around .330 than .300. Pitcher definitely different expected BABIP’s. .280-.320 isn’t .300. Yes hitters definitely have more control over BABIP than pitchers but we can’t just assume .300. It needs to be looked at on an individual by individual basis.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 12, 2010 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, not every pitcher is going to zero out at .300, but it’s also extremely unlikely that Parra’s career .354 BABIP won’t regress towards .300. In lieu of more than 400 IP, I think it’s fair to say that he’s had unsustainable bad luck based on the benchmark for all pitchers of .300, even if Parra has an inherent predisposition for a relatively high BABIP.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Jul 12, 2010 12:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree

the only thing I really took exception to is just using .300 as a baseline. Parra has been unlucky. To what extent remains to be seen. I don’t think he will be under .330 anytime soon.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 12, 2010 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think you should have docked Edmonds' grade a bit

for getting the majority of his AB with the platoon advantage. For the sake of comparison

Player AB vs L/R %
Weeks 94/263 26%
Edmonds 33/138 19%
Fielder 115/207 35%

For Gomez I would have added that he should cut way down on his bunting. Sure it won us a game(tied actually) and is exciting when it works. The problem is that it doesn’t work very often and looks horribly foolish when it doesn’t work.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 11, 2010 9:24 PM CDT reply actions  

Excellent point.

I’m not going to go back and change any of the grades, but were I to redo this, that is something I would definitely look at.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

I really didn't expect you to.

It was just something I wanted to point out.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 11, 2010 11:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm glad you did.

I didn’t even think about that when I was writing this.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

I just tuned into the game...

In time today to hear Hart’s walk-off… It made me think of how I thought Edmonds should have been starting over him when the season started and how foolish I was…

Excellent summation of our disappointing season. I feel like an ass for having predicted a wild card berth for this team.

Goooooo-mez!

by Drew C on Jul 11, 2010 9:26 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

I would actually prefer to see Braddock closing games in the future and Axford setting him up

Axford’s minor league trend was one of wildness and bloated walk rates. I can’t help but feel he’s going to fall back to that at some point.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

by Charlie Marlow on Jul 11, 2010 10:00 PM CDT reply actions  

I think he should stay the closer...

until that happens.

I only watch the games for Taiilgate Tips.

by jmag043 on Jul 11, 2010 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

He's doing that now, in a sense

He’s giving up quite a lot of runs for someone that’s supposed to be shutting down the opposition. He’s been fortunate to have those runs scored with 2- and 3-run leads. Then again, Turnbow found his control for a short period and was an All-Star for it. I’ll ride him while he’s hot, but I don’t think he’s a career closer.

by ecocd on Jul 11, 2010 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

BABIP

I haven’t dived into new ages stats as much as I like, but I fundamentally do not understand the relevance of BABIP. It seems as though the default assumtion is that high ones come down and low ones rise. I don’t think this is one size fits all. Bad pitchers throw balls up in the zone and get crushed. If that pitcher continues to do that, nothing changes. He gets crushed again. Its the same way with hitters. A low BABIP for a hitter that is hitting grounders to the ss doesn’t mean he is unlucky, it means he is hitting poorly. As an example, I would assume that mariano rivera has always had a low BABIP because it is hard to put good wood on the movement of his cutter. A regression back to the mean shouldn’t be assumed in this, or many cases. Can I get some feedback on this, this has bothered me for like a year now.

by LosinCatmansLove on Jul 11, 2010 10:48 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

A couple good primers on it.

One from ESPN
One from the Athletics SBNation Blog, Athletics Nation

And from THT’s Stat’s reference:

Hitters have some control over it (each hitter tends to regress to his own unique level), but BABIP is prone to relatively severe random fluctuations, meaning a player can easily get either lucky or unlucky, potentially having a significant impact on batting average.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 11:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here is a download with an expected BABIP calculator

How you put the ball in play is extremely important. Of course if you don’t believe there is luck in baseball there really is no common ground to have a discussion. I have run into people who believe there is no luck or random variance.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 11, 2010 11:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

thanks

Maybe we should have an offseason emporium to bring people up to speed on the sabermetrics movement. That, or maybe just a dedicated fan post. It seems on this site there is a defined line between the have and the have nots when it comes to an understanding of it all, with people like myself being on the latter. You can certaiy have a baseball discussion without it, its just more helpful. Ill start a cyber petition for one of the mods to hold a saber boot camp.

by LosinCatmansLove on Jul 11, 2010 11:51 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

If you wanted something like that right away

Graham at Lookout Landing had a series of 25 posts similar to what you are looking for. Start with “The Game State, Run Expectancy, and Win Expectancy”, that’s the first one in the series. It’s well-written and easy to understand.

I would be in favor of something similar here, but I wouldn’t be the person to do it as I’m not superbly well-versed in them myself.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 11:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here are a couple more

I might start here

This one is good if you need something specific. For example if you want to look up wOBA.(it’s an offensive stat)

I would also recommend reading Baseball Between the Numbers. It is an easy read and good start into advanced statistics and looks at some of the things we as fans were brought up to just accept and are tossed around as important by baseball announcers.

The Book is actually even better but it gets a little deep into the math and reads almost like a textbook.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Jul 12, 2010 12:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

Breaking this Down

For the purposes of this comment, I am considering Narveson a starting pitcher, Parra a relief pitcher, Edmonds a bench player, and both Zaun and Lucroy as starting position players.

Numbers of
Incomplete: 5
F-: 1
F: 1
D-: 0
D: 3
D+: 3
C-: 2
C: 1
C+: 4
B-: 2
B: 7
B+: 2
A-: 1
A: 3

By positions
Starting Position Players:
A-: 1
B+: 1
B: 2
B-: 1
C+: 2
C-: 1
D+: 1

Backup Position Players:
B: 2
B-: 1
D+: 1
D: 1
INC: 1

Starting Pitchers:
A: 1
C: 1
C-: 1
D+: 1
D: 1
F-: 1

Relief Pitchers:
A: 2
B+: 1
B: 3
C+: 2
D: 1
F: 1
INC: 4

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 10:52 PM CDT reply actions  

I bought a pack of baseball cards as a lark last night.

The first card I pulled out was a Jeff Suppan Brewers card. I really considered trying to take them back for a refund.

by MrPilkington on Jul 11, 2010 10:53 PM CDT reply actions  

don't you have a dartboard...

or a kid with bicycle spokes it could go on? maybe a voodoo priestess for use in putting hex on the Cardinals? at the very least, put it up where you can see it while on the toilet to help keep you regular ;-)

by tdgbp on Jul 11, 2010 11:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Another one of the cards was a card that you were supposed to draw your own sketch based on one of the cards.

It’s supposed to be based on one of the cards. If I had any ability to draw I’d love to do something about the Suppan card.

by MrPilkington on Jul 11, 2010 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

how about coaches?

nice list. can’t say i agree with it all, but i like looking at others’ points of view, and your logic was at least sound. but what about the manager/coaches? i know that would be more difficult to quantify than the players, but might be a fun exercise. at least it would open up a nice discussion about the powers-that-be.

in my own opinion, i had no idea how good we had it with Mike Maddux until he jumped ship. would things be different with our current staff with him instead of Peterson? we’ll never know, but the drop-off in pitching performance since MM left can’t be denied…

by tdgbp on Jul 11, 2010 11:00 PM CDT reply actions  

Honestly, that's not something I think I would be able to grade very well.

Besides, this already took a few hours to do. If you or somebody else wanted to, they can go ahead and do a fanpost grading coaches or expanding on this.

by Noah Jarosh on Jul 11, 2010 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

an a- for hart?

If he ran the opposite direction of every ball hit to rf and screamed like a girl, I would still give him an A when using his preseason expectations as an overall comp. I still watch games like today and have to pinch myself and ask “is that the same guy?”

by LosinCatmansLove on Jul 11, 2010 11:55 PM CDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

For those of you who had no clue what Noah was talking about with some of his stats and acronyms, go here:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

by TWreck on Jul 12, 2010 1:45 AM CDT reply actions  

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