Fact-checking Scott Boras
by SRB on Jul 13, 2010 6:21 PM CDT
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PrintIn a recent discussion with Tom Haudricourt, Scott Boras made comparisons between Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira, and implied that the former would be seeking a contract similar to Teixeira's 8-year/$180 million behemoth deal. This immediately led TH and many Brewers fan to conclude that the Brewers have zero chance of keeping Fielder when he becomes a free agent in 2012. But a quick glance at the actual 2012 market for 1B shows that Scott Boras is dreaming (or more likely, just trying to get as much as he can out of Fielder) when he says Fielder would get a deal like Teixeira's.
There are 30 teams in the MLB, 16 of which could only use Prince as a 1B and 14 of which could conceivably use him as a 1B or DH. I think we can eliminate the possibility that any team, even the Yankees, would give someone anywhere near $20 million/year just to DH. So let's consider the 1B market. We can further eliminate teams with established stars or prospects signed well beyond 2012 (ordered by 2010 team payroll):
New York Yankees - Mark Teixeira (free agent in 2017)
Philadelphia Phillies - Ryan Howard (free agent in 2017-2018)
New York Mets - Ike Davis (free agent in 2017)
Detroit Tigers - Miguel Cabrera (free agent in 2016)
Los Angeles Angels - Kendry Morales (free agent in 2014)
Seattle Mariners - Justin Smoak (free agent in 2017)
Minnesota Twins - Justin Morneau (free agent in 2014)
Cincinnati Reds - Joey Votto (free agent in 2014)
We can also probably add St. Louis to that list, as they aren't likely to not extend Albert Pujols. It also seems unlikely that any team with an elite 1B prospect on the verge of the majors (or already playing there) would give Prince a mammoth contract:
Atlanta Braves - Freddie Freeman
Toronto Blue Jays - Brett Wallace
Cleveland Indians - Matt LaPorta
Arizona Diamondbacks - Brandon Allen
Florida Marlins - Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison
Texas Rangers - Chris Davis
Oakland Athletics - Chris Carter
Even if they don't trust their prospects, most of those teams have payrolls significantly lower than the Brewers' regardless. That leaves 14 teams. If Prince is asking for Teixeira money, we can probably get rid of any team with a payroll below $75 million this year: Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres, Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers can probably also be eliminated. The Cubs have too much money tied up in a handful of players already, and won't have nearly enough free money in 2012 to bid on Fielder. The Dodgers already have a decent player signed for a couple more years in James Loney, and the ownership/divorce mess in Los Angeles makes them unlikely contenders for a huge free agent within the next couple years.
Assuming the Padres can't extend Adrian Gonzalez, he will be a free agent at the same time as Fielder, and probably the more desirable of the two for many teams. The Red Sox in particular have been linked to Gonzalez, so if he hasn't already been traded to and extended in Boston by 2012, the Sox will probably make a push for him and not Prince.
That leaves six teams: the Chicago White Sox, the San Francisco Giants, the Houston Astros, the Colorado Rockies, the Baltimore Orioles and the Milwaukee Brewers. The Astros and Orioles have been so awful this season that it seems unlikely their payroll doesn't drop considerably in the next couple years, probably taking them out of contention for a Prince Fielder contract.
Of the remaining four teams, only the White Sox and Giants have a noteworthy payroll edge over the Brewers, and even then it's not as if they have Yankees or Red Sox money. All are operating around an $80-100 million payroll. Even if all four of these teams (White Sox, Giants, Rockies, Brewers) go all in for Fielder, none of them seem either 1) able to take on a Teixeira-sized contract, or 2) able to blow the Brewers out of the water or really even outbid them.
Lots of things can change between now and 2012, but it seems pretty clear to me that Boras is 100% posturing when he says that Fielder will be looking for Teixeira money. Boras knows the potential market better than I do after spending a few minutes glancing at Cots. I still think it's probable that Fielder gets traded before 2012 and that he might not be in a Brewers uniform beyond then. But the Brewers aren't going to get Sabathia-ed if Mark A. and Melvin decide to try and resign Prince. Milwaukee has as good of odds as any team if they end up wanting to keep Prince in a Brewers uniform. It's not going to take Teixeira money, so long as nobody lets Scott Boras pull the wool over their eyes and fleece them.
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Ryan Howard was going to be a free agent in 2012, right?
He got paid. All it takes is one team.
Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.
In one of the worst contracts in recent memory
Much like the Mark Teixeira to the Braves trade; it happened, but I’m not sure it should be considered a benchmark going forward.
The Phillies are also in a different payroll class than any of the teams that seemingly would be interested in Prince. I don’t think the White Sox or Giants could have given Howard that contract.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I dont think any other team would have given him that contract
captainbok: What do you like the most about milwaukee
Jeff Suppan: Captain Bok, that is a great question. Does "Bok" mean Book of Knowledge? My favorite thing about Milwaukee are the Brewers.
Nice analysis.
I have one question though. Did you look at teams who have 1B who may be able to play somewhere else such as 3B/OF? I could see a team doing that if the player fits that role. Maybe like a LaPorta to RF/LF or even a Miguel Cabrera playing 3B or LF. That is a possibility to explore.
Regardless of my minor qualm, great work SRB.
by Bush League All Star on Jul 13, 2010 8:55 PM CDT reply actions
this is also what I'm going after below
Say you have a 1B that hits well against both RH and LH, but not quite as good as prince (at least against RHP, and comparable against LHP). But that 1B can also passably play 3B (or some other position). The usual 3B sucks against LHP. So, shift the other 1B over to 3B and put prince in at 1st against LHP. Have prince DH against RHP.
That way prince would be in every game, but not getting “worn out” in the field every day. Of course your team would need another DH then…
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 13, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Seems like kind of a complicated platoon to pay a guy $20+ million/year
Possible though, I suppose. It’s probably wise to never underestimate a team like the Yankees’ willingness to unnecessarily spend.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
on the sox
doesn’t youk play 1B and 3B? I don’t know if that’d otherwise be a fit though.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 14, 2010 6:07 AM CDT up reply actions
He does...
but I don’t think they’ll move Youk back to 3B. They have Beltre now and may end up signing him long-term after this season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
you never know
Sure they’ll keep Youk at 1B as long as Beltre stays away from the left fielders…far far away….
I don't get this
Was that a joke? If so, I didn’t get the reference. Can you explain?
If it wasn’t a joke, I still didn’t understand. Can you elaborate?
by cwolf20 on Jul 14, 2010 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
it's a joke (in the haha only serious sense) about the Sox injuries
Beltre has run into both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jeremy Hermida this year, causing them rib injuries. There’s a reason they’re sticking Nava and McDonald out there on a nightly basis, and that’s it. Youkilis, despite not playing much 3B in the past few years, at least hasn’t taken out a great deal of the starting outfield.
Don't forget Bill Hall...
he’s been playing quite a bit in LF this season thanks to those injuries as well.
In fact, Billy is starting at 3B tonight for Beltre.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Yeah, that's a good point
I’m not sure it would be an issue with the players I had in mind though. Cabrera moving back off 1B seems fairly unlikely, especially long-term. Wallace might be able to play 3B, but I think the consensus is that he’s a 1B in the majors. LaPorta could slide back into the OF (I think Cleveland is playing him at 1B so they can play Brantley in LF) but I don’t see the Indians as big players for Fielder either way.
Not sure anybody else listed could play outside 1B/DH
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Kinda what I thought would essentially happen...
Just adding that tidbit to spur a little more discussion. I don’t see any of the teams listed doing that, but it could be possible. Thanks for adding the extra analysis.
by Bush League All Star on Jul 14, 2010 3:27 AM CDT up reply actions
"I think we can eliminate the possibility that any team, even the Yankees, would give someone anywhere near $20 million/year just to DH"
but they might “platoon” him 1B/DH
Teixeira is a switch hitter
doesn’t have much of a platoon split as it is
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
Some good points
But I think you are in error on a few things…Such as the teams with “prospects” all lined up. I dont think it matters much, but the only one of those guys you list that has big time upside potential is Wallace with the Blue Jays. The rest of the players on your list are all nice prospects, but not really any that I would term elite, or that would prevent them from pursuing Fielder. I think in the most of the cases on that list, the teams wouldnt pursue him because of salary issues first, not because they have another 1Bman in the minor leagues.
The other point involves the Orioles and the Nationals and then also the Cubs and Dodgers. The Nationals are going to be major players in the league in a few years and play in front of a large market. They have shown a willingness to put money down for players such as Adam Dunn and Fielder could be the kind of player who they would be looking for.
The Orioles have the potential to be just like the Rays were in 08, in 2012, and Fielder is the kind of player they would love playing 1B for them and would not be afraid of dishing out the funds needed to push them to the top.
I agree on the White Sox and Giants and would give the edge to the Sox because of the smaller park and the abilility for them to put him as a DH later in the contract. But once Fielder gets traded away from Milwaukee, he wont be coming back.
And the Cubs are always going to pursue guys with money. They have a cash cow franchise and fan base, they will be without a First Baseman by then and they have quite a bit of young talent on the way that could make them an exciting team come 2012 and again, Fielder is the kind of guy they would have no problem puttind down money for long term to help them get to that point. As for the Dodgers, I am willing to bet that the divorce issue will be long resolved by the end of 2011 and they also have the funds and revenues available to lure him in, and Loney being there wont stop that if they really wanted him.
With the possible exception of Brandon Allen, those are all definitely elite prospects. Morrison (#16), Freeman (#20), Carter and Wallace are all ranked by Baseball America in the top 50 prospects in the game currently, and all of them are on the cusp of being in the majors. Fielder would be an improvement for any of those teams, sure, but I don’t see a team giving a mammoth long-term contract to block their top prospects.
I disagree about the Cubs and Dodgers. I find it hard to believe that either team will have enough money to spend in 2012 to make a play for Fielder. Same with the Orioles.
Fair point about the Nationals though. If they don’t extend Dunn and their payroll continues to increase, they could be players for Prince by 2012. They’re in the same camp as the White Sox/Giants/Rockies though. None of these teams have giant payrolls, and none of them are in significantly different financial positions than the Brewers.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I could see the White Sox signing him
He could take over at first with Konerko DHing. Prince isn’t a great fielder, but he’s got decent discipline, a whole lot of pop, and he plays every day. The Sox are in a three-way fight with the Tigers and Twins this season and could immediately give them the edge in the division, and be re-signed to play 1B and eventually transition to DH. He moves 90 minutes away, gets a big paycheck, and gets to beat up on his dad’s old team in the division.
Konerko is a FA after this year
They may resign him, but doubtful.
Also Konerko’s defense is better than Fielders, so it is more likely that they would have Prince DH.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jul 26, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
The Nats
got Dunn relatively cheap and word on the street is that the Lerners want to trade either Dunn or Willingham before the deadline so they don’t have to pay them next year. I wouldn’t consider them to be players for Prince until they prove that they are willing to spend on free agents.
Get well soon Ueck
Yeah, apparently Dunn wants to work out an extension
but he’s getting irritated that they seem to be dragging their feet. Perhaps they’re looking forward.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 13, 2010 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions
The Cubs have a lot of payroll leaving by the end of 2011
So you may want to rethink your position on them. Plus they have a fair amount of promising prospects that can play for cheap allowing them to spread money to other positions. Not to say they’d do so properly, but someone would get paid a lot to play (whether or not they produce).
They have a lot of money already tied up in 2012
2012 guaranteed contracts: $62.5 million (Soriano, Zambrano, Dempster, Byrd, Samardjiza, A-Ram option, Silva option)
2012 third year arbitration players: Theriot, Marmol, Fontenot, Baker, Marshall, Guzman, Gorzelanny, Hill
2012 second year arbitration players: Soto
2012 first year arbitration players: Well, Hoffpaiur
Unless they unload some of their albatross contracts, I don’t think they’ll have the money in ’12.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
$62.5million is less than half of their current payroll
And in all likeliness Theriot will either be moved or will not be tendered a contract.
The Rammy player option is for 2011. If he continues on this path then the club will not take him back on in 2012.
So if we takeRammy’s $16M off the books you’re looking at a team starting at $46.5 million. A team who could potentially have a $150 million dollar payroll that year. That leaves a lot wiggle room.
Of course this is all speculation. We have no idea who they will sign or keep. I’m just saying you can’t rule them out of making a run at just about anyone. We have all witnessed their willingness to open the wallet for some very questionable signings.
I'm not sure where you got your numbers
I thought that number looked insanely low so I looked it up on Cot’s. I just calculated the Cubs having almost $90 million guaranteed for 2011. Let’s estimate $20 million in arbitration. That allows for about $40 million in wiggle room. that could add a couple hefty FA’s.
I worded it wrong, by "option" I meant buyout ($2 million each for A-Ram and Silva)
Unless they somehow trade somebody, the Cubs have $62.5 million guaranteed in 2012 even assuming they buyout Ramirez and Silva. Eight players in their third year of arbitration (the most expensive) is going to cost much more than $20 million. You also have Soto, Wells, Hoffpaiur in arbitration which is probably another $15 million. You’re probably looking at $110 million tied up with multiple holes in the rotation, in the outfield, at 1B and at 3B. Giving a $20 million contract to Fielder would leave the team $20 million to fill quite a few holes, even assuming a sustained $150 million payroll.
As I recall, the Ricketts said there isn’t very much payroll flexibility beyond the current total. I doubt Cubs payroll moves past $150 million in the next couple years.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Not to mention that the Brewers wouldn't likely trade Fielder to the Cubs.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I was going to say the same thing about the Nats.
I see their payroll rising significantly over the next couple years, due to Strasberg and the developing winning attitude in DC.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
i largely agree with backtocali
brandon allen is probably not an elite prospect. frankly reviews are mixed on freddie freeman and chris carter. the a’s probably wouldn’t spend anyway, but the braves might.
and i think you’re overestimating ike davis and his potential. most things i’ve read have him as “not elite” and playing better than expected. and in citi, you’d like to have a guy with big time power, which prince provides. the mets also like to spend and have names, which prince provides and ike doesn’t. i could see him moving to OF as francoeur seems to be falling out of favor, though pagan isn’t — who knows maybe one or both get traded. i could see prince being traded to the mets in the offseason for something involving {davis, mejia, and/ or pagan}.
at the end of the day, though, people didn’t think there was a huge market for mark t, but he still got the deal. as long as the mets and sox are in it, he could get big dollars and so could adrian. there’s an offchance the nats or giants decide they need to upgrade the offense (the giants obviously need a bat and maybe the nats just don’t want to spend on dunn, but would spend on someone else).
by Capt Science on Jul 14, 2010 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I would ask for more
But it would be hard to turn that down if the Rays didn’t budge.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Now that I think about it, I would definitely ask for more
Prince + two draft picks is a lot.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I wouldn't waste time asking for other prospects
I’d take that deal right away before the Rays changed their mind.
Get a ife broseph
Someone is going to splurge
First off, even those with established first basemen very well could be willing to splurge on Prince. He is an upgrade over many established 1B and they could then use their current 1B to trade for something else they need.
Secondly, I agree with those that said that some of the minor league guys are not elite. Being in the top 50 prospects in baseball is nice and all, but I don’t know that it puts you into MVP territory (as Prince in a good year is).
How often have we seen teams like the Braves trade away their “elite prospects” and then not have them pan out? How often have we seen the Andy LaRoche types not realize their rankings. Many teams know this and aren’t going to NOT pursue Fielder just because they have Freddie Freeman in the minors.
As with the initial example, I think many teams would consider trading their prospects if it meant signing someone like Fielder.
Now, I don’t think all teams are in this boat, but again, all it takes is one team and Prince is gone.
I disagree
Prince would obviously be a huge upgrade over any of those prospects. But if teams already have their top prospect ready (and only able) to take over one position, why would they blow all their money there? The Brewers don’t have an entirely comparable situation because Lawrie could play multiple positions. But pretend it turns out he can only play 1B at the major league level. Are the Brewers going to take on a huge contract, block Lawrie for the foreseeable future, and direct most of their free agent spending money on a position that they already have covered in the long-run, at the expense of the inevitable other more-pressing needs the team will have?
Trades between now and 2012 would change things, but I don’t think any team is going to trade their top prospect specifically with the huge gamble of being able to sign Fielder in mind.
Also, besides Atlanta and Toronto, none of the teams I listed with MLB-ready prospects have a larger payroll than Milwaukee anyways. None of those smaller teams would take on a Teixeira-sized contract, especially if they have a top prospect waiting in the wings.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
because...
…some of them know that they aren’t elite prospects. Being a good prospect is not the same as getting a Prince Fielder.
Not a prediction, but a team like the Mets could certainly look at Prince as a huge upgrade at 1B, thereby allowing them to deal Ike Davis for help someplace else (before he was exposed as not being elite).
This is just a hypothetical…and not a prediction of going to the Mets or a slam on Davis. The point is that I think you have limited his potential teams more than what actually will be out there.
Hey, if the Brewers re-sign him for $15 million a year because there was no market for him, I will be thrilled (provided it isn’t more for about 5 years). I just don’t expect it and suspect that someone is going to pony up the money, even if they have Freddie Freeman or someone sitting in AA.
(Think about how Gamel was viewed about two years ago. Teams know this is how it often works with prospects.)
by badgermaniac on Jul 19, 2010 2:16 AM CDT up reply actions
The Mets said earlier in the year (re: Cliff Lee) that they weren’t interested in trading Ike Davis. Conceivably, they could trade him and then sign Fielder, but that seems extraordinary unlikely to me as they are very high on Davis.
And Freddie Freeman is a 20-year old with an .830 OPS in AAA right now. He’s a very elite prospect, there is no way the Braves would block him with a huge contract.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
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