Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 27, 2010 10:16 AM CDT
in News
184 comments
Some things to read while taking a stand.
Maybe everyone should strain their Achilles: The Brewers only had three hits last night, but one of them was a pinch hit, go ahead solo shot from Jim Edmonds in the eighth inning. Edmonds is hitting .400/.464/.960 while playing on a sore Achilles since the All Star break, with six of his ten hits going for extra bases. Last night's home run was just the fourth pinch hit home run of his career. John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer got Bronson Arroyo's thoughts on the at bat.
The Brewers only had three hits (and one walk) last night, but two of the hits were home runs. The other came from Rickie Weeks, and traveled 447 feet to center field. Hit Tracker Online hasn't updated yet this morning but, assuming they use the 447 number, it'll be Weeks' second longest homer of the season, behind his May 7 shot off of Edwin Jackson. (h/t Jack Moore) Weeks has six home runs in the team's last nine games.
Weeks also scored a run for the tenth consecutive game, the fourth longest streak in the majors this season. The Brewers' franchise record is 16, held by Paul Molitor and Weeks. Weeks' current 10 game streak is the sixth longest in Brewer history.
Other notes from the field:
- Adam McCalvy noted that the team's current five game winning streak matches their longest of the season, and they still have 16 games left against the Cardinals and Reds.
- The Brewers' three hits came from the #1 spot (Weeks) and the #9 spot (Wolf and Edmonds). The Brewers' 2-8 hitters combined to go 0-for-19 with a walk and an HBP.
- The HBP came from Prince Fielder, who was hit by Bronson Arroyo. Plunk Everyone has more.
- Jim Edmonds, Rickie Weeks and Randy Wolf are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting.
- CoolStandings has the Brewers' playoff chances at 0.8%.
- Here are last night's MLB.com video highlights.
- Last night's contest took just 2:10, the quickest Brewer game of the season.
Corey Hart was unavailable once again yesterday as he continues to rehab his bruised wrist. Joe Inglett started in his place and went 0-for-3. Hart played catch yesterday for the first time since injuring the wrist on Friday, but there's still no announced timetable for his return.
Elsewhere in trade notes:
- Jon Paul Morosi says Corey Hart likely won't be healthy in time to be traded, so Prince Fielder is the Brewers' only chance to add young pitching.
- Adam McCalvy has a look at the Brewers' options with Fielder.
- Dave Bush reportedly isn't drawing much interest.
- If you've ever wondered how much work goes into a midseason trade, Trenni Kusnierek has your answer.
Elsewhere in injury notes, the Brewers may need to make a roster move in the bullpen soon. LaTroy Hawkins pitched two successful innings for Nashville last night and is expected to be reevaluated by team doctors in the next day or two.
In the minors:
- Jeremy Jeffress is on the move again. After just eight games in the Florida State League, Jeffress has been promoted to Huntsville. The Brewers Bar considers the possibility that Jeffress could be a Brewer by season's end.
- The affiliates went 3-3 yesterday, with Nashville scoring seven runs in the first inning en route to a 12-6 win over Albuquerque. Lorenzo Cain went 3-for-5 in the game with a walk and two triples, both in the first inning. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
- Jody Gerut made his first rehab appearance in Arizona yesterday, and went 0-for-2 with two walks.
- We don't talk much about the Dominican Summer League, where the Brewers have their own facility and team this year for the first time in many years. I don't spend much time on DSL players because even the best are likely several years away from AA, much less the majors. With that said, there's one guy in the Brewer camp with a name you might recognize: Raul Mondesi Jr.
- Elsewhere in the DSL, three Brewers in the team's new Dominican program were suspended for 50 games after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.
- MLB Bonus Baby has the Brewers projected to pick 10th in their updated 2011 draft order.
Once again, the Brewers are seeing the effects of a disappointing season in the standings: As of June 30, local TV ratings for Brewer broadcasts were down 27% from last season.
On power rankings:
- MLB FanHouse has the Brewers at 12, up six spots.
- Craig Calcaterra has the Brewers at 21, down one spot.
- WhatifSports has the Brewers at 21, up one spot.
Our field of ten is complete, but other nominations for the SBN Wisconsin Hall of Fame continue to come in. Today, Anonymous Eagle has Bo Ellis, Acme Packing Company has Don Hutson and Jerry Kramer, and Bucky's 5th Quarter has Bo Ryan.
Around baseball:
Marlins: Placed outfielder Chris Coghlan on he DL with a torn meniscus.
Mets: Placed catcher Rod Barajas on the DL with an oblique strain (h/t hotstove.com)
It's been widely speculated for years that players and umpires handle situations differently to accelerate the pace of play in blowouts and on getaway days. That might not actually be true, though: Jeremy Greenhouse of The Baseball Analysts wasn't able to find any proof of either.
Jason Kendall joined relatively elite company last night as he caught his 2000th major league game. (The Royals lost, 19-1.) Kendall is just the fifth catcher ever to reach 2000, but the WAR count would suggest he probably shouldn't be mentioned in the same breath as three of the others:
| Player | Career WAR |
| Carlton Fisk | 67.3 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 67.1 |
| Gary Carter | 66.3 |
| Jason Kendall | 38.1 |
| Bob Boone | 26.1 |
On this day in 1979 the Brewers beat the Yankees 6-5 behind three home runs from Cecil Cooper. Cooper hit 201 home runs in eleven seasons as a Brewer, but that was his only three homer game.
Happy birthday today to:
- Racine native Shane Rawley, who played 12 seasons in the majors (1978-1989) with four teams, and turns 55 today.
- 2003-2005 Brewer bench coach Rich Dauer, who turns 58.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to rewrite history.
Drink up.
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The McCalvy article on Prince
Those quotes from Doug sure make it seem like he won’t be moved before the deadline. Obviously could be posturing, but reading this and all the other rumors makes it seem like Melvin really wants major league players back in return, and if that’s the case I think an off-season move is much more likely.
“The arbitration process happens so quickly,” Melvin said. “We have a good, young nucleus and now everybody wants to trade off everybody. I don’t hear other teams talking about trading players that are a year and a half from free agency.”
“We’re six games under .500 and it’s not like we’re in a transition, like the Diamondbacks trading Dan Haren [on Sunday],”
“Teams talk, but they don’t give you legitimate offers,” Melvin said. “The toughest part is that teams don’t want to take anybody off their Major League club. Teams will offer prospects in A-ball.”
“They sit down, go through their rosters and their finances and payroll projections and arbitration projections, and you can get Major League players more in the offseason,” Melvin said. “You can get [all 30] teams involved.”.
Get a ife broseph
a) what the frick is he thinking?
b) what the frack is he thinking?
c) what the frell is he thinking?
I thought you got the best value by trading for prospects, assuming they pan out. Otherwise you have to settle for a low WAR major leaguer early in their contract. It’s not like you can flip Fielder for Pujols or Cliff Lee.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions
"...assuming they pan out."
There’s the rub.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
by TheJay on Jul 27, 2010 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
well yes
but when flipping Fielder for something I’d rather take that risk then know I’m not going to even approach his WAR/season
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
Here's the issue
The team is in a bind because they don’t want to lose a big amount of casual ticket sales. They think that if they trade Prince, it will signal the beginning of the end to fans, and sales will tank.
The front office very clearly thinks that it is one or two players away from a playoff run, and that they can get those major league players by trading Fielder.
Also, Doug Melvin is an idiot.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Honestly
I think the front office thinks that the team was unlucky in the first half of the season, and has everything in place to make a playoff run in 2011, so why not keep Hart & Fielder.
Not agreeing, just saying I can see where they’re coming from if that’s their point of view, especially if they think they’ll be able to sign some back-end of the rotation help this offseason.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I know you're not disagreeing
Because that’s what I think, too.
And I honestly think its wrong. And I am not excited for the dearth of winning that will happen going forward with the nude farm system.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions
I think there is truth to both of the above
They are afraid of the revenue impact if they trade Prince for guys that are years away and think they have enough in place to make a run next year with the payroll coming off the books.
Or it could just be posturing and Prince is traded for prospects on Saturday morning and we’re all wrong, but I lean toward the first theory.
Get a ife broseph
I dont think DM is equipped
To do a rebuild. Nor does he know how.
The team has to go 43-18 to get to 91 wins and a playoff spot. Dave Bush, Doug Davis, Manny Parra and Chris Narveson, coupled with an offense that cant win if it doesnt hit HR’s, just isnt reliable enough to put on that kind of run.
Talk about Old Vegas. DM epitomizes it with his thoughts here. There are quite a few guys in A ball rosters throughout the league, who if they were picked up for Fielder, would dramatically improve the Brewer farm system. The problem is that his people are the ones that will have to develop those guys.
He should be on the phone every day with Kenny Williams and Andrew Friedman trying to deal Fielder and asking for prospects in return to help build for the future of the team.
Its possible he is posturing, but I hope that he pulls the trigger here before Saturday. He already missed the boat on dealing Hart because he overvalued his own guy, if he waits on Fielder there is a chance to get a decent return this offseason, but it would be better if he were dealt now.
Wow, you're blaming DM for Hart getting hurt?
If he planned to trade Hart by the deadline and was waiting until the last minute to take the best offer on the table, it’s hardly his fault that evaporated when Hart got hurt trying to make a play. If that wasn’t his plan, and he was waiting for the offseason, then yes, he would have missed the boat, but we can’t possibly know if thats the case.
He's blaming DM for not trading Hart sooner
The GM takes a risk every day his trade bait is on the field. Sometimes you win that bet and sometimes you lose that bet. It looks like DM lost that bet and he’s 100% responsible for taking that bet. He failed to trade at highest value and he was fully cognizant of the risks in waiting.
Now he’s playing a different bet that Hart will continue his overperformance through the rest of the season. If Hart cools down and his value is substantially lower, it’s going to be an enormous Rorschach blot of black ink on his record when it comes to looking for a new job. I doubt there’s much he can do at this point to save his job unless Mark A is deluded.
Seriously?
Waiting until the deadline approaches often times will increase your return because teams get desperate. We don’t even know if any legitamate pitching was offered for Hart. To flat out say that Melvin “failed” because Hart got hurt seems pretty ridiculous to me.
And I don’t see how he is playing any other “bet”. Hart is currently injured. No one is going to trade for him unless he proves to be healthy.
by gobrew23 on Jul 27, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I meant he was forced into the other bet
I specified that he failed to sell Hart at his highest valid. That’s past tense. It’s already happened. Maybe he didn’t “fail” at playing the game correctly – waiting until the trade deadline – but he failed to sell at the highest value. He’s judged on results and his results were 0 return for Hart.
maybe he can go back in time
and sell a bunch of stock on October 28, 1929
seriously? you’re blaming him for not seeing a sharp decline in hart’s value? you could predict that his real value might go down slightly as the trade deadline approached as he regressed a bit and he would have fewer games on his new team to give value, however the reality is that his price would be pushed up as teams get more and more desperate for that extra bat to push them above the edge. Blaming him for not seeing/predicting an injury or for not leaping on the first offer he sees (and convincing the opposing GM to also jump early) is irresponsible.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gotta run
Got to get back to work, so I’m not dodging the conversation here.
I guess the point is that someone has to be responsible for the state of the team, and Doug Melvin is the head honcho. It’s not fair, but the state of the roster is still his job. It’s, in fact, his only job.
I think the real issue is that its obvious that Hart is playing over his head
He needed to have traded him to a team that was ‘one bat away’. All you have to do is look at Hart’s past seasons to know that a regression is in his future.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions
So is Doug
People give him way too much credit for the Sabathia trade – it’s not like Cleveland had anything to lose with the deal.
Regression? Sounds familiar... who else had that label put on him?
Again, we don’t know if he had any decent trade offers for Hart. The GMs of the league know what Hart’s history is, so it’s possible that he didn’t get any worthwhile offers.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You mean McGehee?
He has regressed.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions
But not to the degree that people were expecting (on both sides of the plate).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
So now there's a caveat?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess so
then again, just about the entire team has regressed this season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
maybe the other GM wasn't willing to pull the trigger until the deadline
there are two+ parties involved in every trade
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess I just don't see it that way
Clearly, every day that he is not traded is at some opportunity cost (whatever deal was on the table at the time) vs. him risking injury by playing another game. But if the offers were underwhelming, that is one good reason to have not made a trade.
I think a lot of people here would have crucified him for making an underwhelming trade just because he felt like he had to trade Hart. He tried to maximize Hart’s value by waiting until closer to the deadline to make a deal, and that became impossible because of something he can’t control. If there was a quality offer on the table, then sure, it’s closer to his fault for not taking it, but again, he might have been waiting to improve any existing offers as much as possible. It sucks that he got hurt and likely won’t be traded as a result, but I just don’t understand how that is DM’s fault.
by dtmeyers on Jul 27, 2010 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Who's fault is it that Hart is still on the team as of the trade deadline?
Hart’s wrist for being injured? There has to be accountability for any mistake. Is it always fair? No. Life isn’t fair and no one said it was.
As GM, his job is to put the best team on the field that he can this and and into the future. He may have been playing the trading game correctly by waiting for more value, but the results are what matters in this game and the results are zero return for Hart right now. An underwhelming trade at 75% of his potential max value is better than nothing or what he might get in the offseason if Hart doesn’t stay hot through the end of the year.
Maybe Hart does stay hot and he’s worth more than what was on the table and then Melvin’s mistake is mitigated.
slippery slope to judge a GM that way
If Gallardo blows his arm out tonight and can never pitch again, is that Melvin’s fault for not trading him last week?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jul 27, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this is hindsight bias
Melvin waiting was the best way to maximize the value of a player at its peak. Now that we know Hart gets hurt before the deadline, its easy to go back and say DM should have taken the best offer that was on the table last week when they isn’t how it works. With the information he had available to him, under the assumption that he would deal Hart by the deadline, I can’t figure out when he made a mistake other than saying he should have dealt him before he got hurt.
by dtmeyers on Jul 27, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
How can it be no one's fault?
I can’t imagine a job where when something goes bad, that it’s no one’s fault. If there is such a job, then I would like to have it, please. Is it fair? Probably not. Is it how life works? Of course.
Fault
Hart’s fault for sliding to try to catch a foul ball? Narveson for throwing the pitch? The Nationals’ hitter for hitting the ball?
Seriously, why does it have to be someone’s fault? DM can be blamed for alot of poor decisions, but I don’t see this as being one of them.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Jul 27, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Exactly, it doesn't have to be someone's fault
There’s always some element of randomness
by placidity on Jul 27, 2010 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry about your job, man
All the jobs i’ve been involved in, people don’t waste time worrying about whose fault it is, but how to do their best within the new circumstances. If you want to criticize a worker something, criticize him for consistently bringing about a bad situation, like for example wasting money on multi-year middle reliever contracts.
Not blaming him for the injury
But if the reports about Brian Sabean being in town during the Giants series were for the purpose of pulling off a trade, there was probably a decent offer on the table.
If I remember correctly, the report was that DM wanted Sanchez and Neal. And the Giants didnt want to give up Sanchez. I just wonder if DM’s next response was “ok, well how about Madison Bumgarner then?”
The Brewers then had a series with the Braves, where Mike Minor was the rumored return, but again nothing happened. And then theres the Rays and Wade Davis.
My point is that if these discussions were going on, there were offers on the table, and any one of them would have been a great return for Hart. But DM seems to have this desire for MLB pitching, and the only MLB pitching that is available isnt all that great.
Getting a guy whos already a major leaguer isnt necessarily better than getting 2 guys currently in A ball with upside. The latter, which DM doesnt seem to get, is the more feasible option for a team that needs to keep the future always in focus, and is about 3 pretty good players away from contending.
i agree with you mostly except for
“a team … needs to keep the future always in focus”
sometimes the present needs to be in focus too. Otherwise, what’s the damned point other than fodder for the yanks, sox, mets, dodgers and cubs to beat up on?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Drop some wisdom on us, old muppet dude!
All his life has he looked away… to the future, to the horizon. Never his mind on where he was. Hmm? What he was doing. Hmph. Adventure. Heh. Excitement. Heh. AJediGeneral Manager craves not these things. You are reckless.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
What if the rumors were wrong?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I can't believe I'm on btc's side on this one
btc’s assertions are based on the assumptions of the rumors. I’m sure btc would be the first to say that DM made the correct decision to wait if he was only ever offered a reliever and an A-ball 1st baseman. Maybe I’m putting words into his mouth here, but it was a statement of opinion – perhaps strongly-worded opinion, but an opinion about DM’s performance and ability nonetheless.
I thought the comment about Melvin missing the boat on Hart was pretty clear
No ifs about it.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Okay, so btc believes his opinion to be truth
That doesn’t change the fact that it’s still a strongly-worded opinion.
Yeah, thats what I was saying
We dont know what the offers were, but most GM’s would probably make a pretty fair offer for the NL HR (at the time) King. Most of them dont think like we do here about salary cost, time available, surplus value, WAR, etc.
If there were talks, and the teams rumored were true, then I have no doubt a pretty decent trade was offered. And when I say decent, I mean fair.
I just think DM is pretty good at being the buyer, but I dont think he really likes to pick up prospects. The Lee trade, the Sabathia trade, the Linebrink trade, even the Sexson and Overbay trades all involved established major leaguers (young in their careers those players may have been), but he’s not very adept, or hasnt shown it at least, at picking up highly rated prospects when being a seller. Part of this can be blamed on his SD.
But this is the state that he is in right now, and knowing what the exchange rate is for a vet like Hart or Fielder vs the up and coming, with upside player is something he really needs to know.
I generally agree with your valuation of Melvin
I don’t think he’s a particularly astute GM. But that doesn’t change whether or not he botched this particular deal. He would have been killed for making a less than ideal trade before the deadline, and wanted to wait until then to maximize Hart’s value on the market. It’s hindsight bias to suggest that he should have taken the best deal he had available on Thursday because Hart was injured Friday. And even if there was a relatively fair deal on the table Thursday, why would you not want your GM to try and see if he can exceed fair value?
by dtmeyers on Jul 27, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So you're upset that he didn't pull the trigger on a trade rumor?
We don’t know if those offers were on the table, and if he was waiting to try and squeeze another prospect out of a team, thats not a bad thing. Besides which, if he would have taken whichever trade was on the table just for the sake of dealing Hart, he would have been killed for making a (likely) underwhelming trade.
by dtmeyers on Jul 27, 2010 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
For crying out loud...
… I wish DM would stop making me agree with BTC.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 27, 2010 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
This pretty much nails it, in my opinion.
My point is that if these discussions were going on, there were offers on the table, and any one of them would have been a great return for Hart. But DM seems to have this desire for MLB pitching, and the only MLB pitching that is available isnt all that great.
Getting a guy whos already a major leaguer isnt necessarily better than getting 2 guys currently in A ball with upside. The latter, which DM doesnt seem to get, is the more feasible option for a team that needs to keep the future always in focus, and is about 3 pretty good players away from contending.
Not knowing what the offers were, I’m not going to get too hacked off, but I don’t like DM’s philosophy, to the extent it was exposed in the quotes above.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 27, 2010 1:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Weren't the Sanchez/Neal "rumors" about Prince Fielder?
(A ridiculous return for Fielder)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 27, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thats right
My mistake. But not a horrible return.
Fielder’s Surplus value is about the same as Hart’s right now because of salary. Ive I remember correctly, Sanchez is in that $15 million range as well, and Neal would have provided the premium.
Not an oooohh ahhh type of deal, but quite fair. In opposition to the Texiera to the Braves deal where there was an extra player involved, Sanchez is an established MLB pitcher with solid #3 credentials, and Neal a top 100 prospect, whereas the guys the Braves sent to the Rangers were mostly top rankes prospects a bit away from their debuts.
That would be an atrocious return for Fielder.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 27, 2010 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Deals made at the deadline
aren’t supposed to be fair.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Jul 27, 2010 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
also
Fielder’s value is greater than that over surplus. If you assume he has a higher WAR for the rest of the season (I know positionally adjusted vs in-house options that may not be the case) that gives you a greater chance of making and then winning the playoffs. Doesn’t that blow “surplus value” out of the water?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
certainly sounds like posturing to me.
He probably has some pretty good offers on the table. Quotes like this are only gonna make the price go up.
Every GM does it.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
It sounds like Doug is under the impression
That his team is still ‘really really good and maybe one player away’ even though we’re eight games out heading into August. Sorry Doug, but you’ve done the worst thing possible as a GM – paid too much for a team not good enough to make the postseason. Even Sabathia couldn’t save this season right now.
I've got to say that I'm a little troubled by the quote about the quote about teams not wanting to take players off the major league club...
… Maybe he was just referring to the young MLB pitchers he asked the Giants for. Hope so. Because the last time I heard him say stuff like that was when he threw Nelson Cruz in so he could get “major league talent” back, referring to Mench and Nix. Personally, I’d rather take the chance on the prospect with big upside than the known commodity player who might hang on the roster for 2 years and be gone. This isn’t the Sexson deal, for crying out loud, where you’re trying to get enough actual major leaguer’s so you can win 70 games the next year.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 27, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
And the confidence goes downhill fast
Because the more he starts to think that maybe the team’s performance will imperil his job status, the less likely he will make a deal that’s beneficial long-term for the club. I don’t care for Melvin at all, I have no faith in his decisions or the rationale under which he makes them.
by nullacct on Jul 27, 2010 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Very good point.
It’s why CEO’s can go from 3 year contract to 3 year contract after making plenty of short-sighted decisions
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Basically this
Except he’s expecting magic to happen when he hits 88 MPH.
by nullacct on Jul 27, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
he left his flux capacitor at home though
so there’s no way he can get the 1.21 jiggawatts needed
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Jeffress
with the way he’s been pitching (and probably smoking for that matter), he wouldn’t be able to be dropped from the 40-man roster without another team claiming him. That means the only chances he has to NOT be in a brewers uniform at season’s end is to a) get injured and placed on the 60 day DL b) begin to pitch like utter crap or c) be on the 40-man but not promoted to the big league team when rosters expand to 40-men, thereby preventing the brewers from using their complete 40 man roster.
None of those scenarios do I find likely, so I think it’s quite likely he’ll be a September call-up.
I know one or two people aren’t promoted every year to the 40-man, but I think this year (with as craptastic as the big league team has been) I think he’ll get his cup of Coffey™.
He didn't have success the last two times in Huntsville
Will be interesting to see if he’s better this time around.
Get a ife broseph
He will probably get a call up as a reward for staying clean after his affiliate's season ends
The team likely won’t be playing for much at that point so if it keeps him on the straight and narrow, cool.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
The link to the John Fay article is wrong
sends you to an article about their leadoff hitter problems
link was fine.
the article just got re-written several times and now no longer has any of the original content (or the leadoff hitter stuff either – now it’s about trade-able players). I found the initial version here:
http://www.lockerpulse.com/MLB/Reds/
then scroll down to Cincinnati.com and the Checkmate Edmonds article.
Apparently either John Fay or Cincinnati.com has/have issues.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Fielding stats say 1742 games behind the plate (1627 starts)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/benchjo01.shtml#standard_fielding
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Coghlan's injury: not amusing
The story behind it is.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
does it involve the Happy Youngster?
specifically some side effect of impaling the happy youngster?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions
No, but Wes Helms was there
“When Wes hit the walk-off, I went to pie him in the face,” Coghlan said. “When I jumped, I landed wrong on my knee.”
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Who does Hawkins Replace
Looking @ the 25 man roster, the only person I see going back down to Nashville for a month is Loe – and it pains me to say that. Otherwise if you send Braddock down then you are left with only Cappy as your lefty in the pen. I would rather keep Loe than Braddock, but I don’t know if that is the decision that Melvin with make.
In fact the more I think about it, Melvin will probably send Loe down just because he has been pitching so well….
by Saberilliterate on Jul 27, 2010 11:07 AM CDT reply actions
Do you think that Hoffman is worth anything to anyone? And does he have a no-trade clause?
by Saberilliterate on Jul 27, 2010 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
The Phillies are always looking for ways make it look like Brad Lidge is about to be removed as closer
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I think teams would take a flyer on
Hoffman, Villanueva, and Coffey. Maybe Loe
http://www.mlbsoup.com
keep in mind 2 things here
1) You probably won’t get any special prospects for those relievers.
2) They could be Type A or B free agents, and demand a pick or two in return for losing them.
On the other hand, their salaries are getting expensive by reliever standards, so we could free up some more payroll for 2011 by trading them.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Still cheaper than FA relievers.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Cot's doesn't list a no-trade clause in his current contract.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
They also don't list one for Joakim Soria
Who apparently has a 6 team list, including the Yankees.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
that's a really smart move though
the Yankees can afford to pick up a few years worth of options if they want him that bad
Absolutely
more just pointing out that a lot of times Cot’s doesn’t have all of the specifics. So, conceivably, Hoffman could have a no-trade clause. I think its pretty unlikely, though.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Braddock might go to the DL, even though he was supposedly available again yesterday
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I realy don't have a clue what Melvin is doing/thinking.
You’d think he would be shopping some of the older relievers on the team who don’t have much of a future in Milwaukee. Villanueva or Coffey might net a decent prospect. But I’m not sure Melvin knows what those are.
Are there any relievers being traded?
Maybe it will pick up at the deadline but I can’t recall one recently.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Those are usually post-waiver trade deadline deals, aren't they?
The Brewers picked up someone for their playoff run. Was it King?
I would think that any injuries to pitchers in August-September on a contender are more likely to be filled with an established major leaguer than a AAA call-up. Villa, Coffey and Loe it seems would clear waivers.
are you thinking of linebrink?
or was that pre-waiver deadline?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I thought both were
But I know King was one.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jul 27, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
King was a waiver trade (or was it claim?), Linebrink was a pre-waiver trade
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure when relievers are usually traded
There have been many guys traded before July 31 though.
I think you are right there will be some August trades this year. I suspect Hoffman will be dealt because no one will claim him, he’s a veteran closer, and he still doesn’t really have a role on this club. Once the outfield gets healthier, I could see Edmonds being shipped to a team with a better shot at a championship.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I should say no one will claim Hoffman without actually wanting him, because of his contract
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I'm not sure what it takes to clear waivers
I don’t understand the whole process – but I could see quite a few teams making room for Loe. I don’t want him going anywhere.
He's a FA after this year
and likely won’t be real cheap to resign after this season. I’d take what I could get for him
He is arbitration-eligible
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Nutshell
I think this is how waivers works:
Team places a player on waivers. The rest of the league has 48 hours to claim that player. The rub of this is that the pecking order of waiver claims goes from worst record to first. So if you get 8 teams that want your waived player, the one with the worst record gets first shot at him.
And when I say “shot”, the Brewers and the claiming team have that same 48 hours to work out an agreed upon trade. If nothing happens, the Brewers pull the guy back off of waivers.
If no one claims a player the team is then free to do with him what they want, make a trade, release, demote, etc. But here, as opposed to the “non cleared” player, they can trade with whoever they want.
One detail missed
The Brewers can allow the player to go to the team that claimed him and that team is responsible for the remainder of the contract. Otherwise, the worst teams in the league would claim everyone and hope to find a gullible GM willing to make a dumb trade.
As Jay pointed out above, I don’t think anyone will claim Hoffman unless they’re prepared to pay the remainder of his contract, because the Brewers could just “dump” him for the $$$.
Jim Edmonds
Is on a 162 game pace for 6.2 WAR.
There has to be someone who needs a player like him to come off the bench as a Left hander and play a pretty decent CF. And with that a pretty decent prospect in return could be received.
He has a surplus value of about $5 million, which according to Victor Wang of THT, is worth a B graded prospect (Sickels).
Just scanning contenders that need help like that there is the Padres, Red Sox, Braves, Giants and Reds could all use a hand in their OF. Padres and Reds are probably out because the Pads already had him once and gave up on him and the Reds are in the division.
That leaves the Red Sox, Braves and Giants. Of those teams, the Red Sox might give up 1B prospect Anthony Rizzo. *I can bet the Sox wouldnt mind having JEd playign OF occasionally, with his ability to go the other way still pretty well, and the short porch in LF and very short line down RF.) The Giants might give up a guy like Francisco Peguero, a fast OF with pop (even more so that Cain) and maybe the Braves have a ton of A ball pitching with high risk/reward to give up for him.
Maybe Edmonds is the Brewers biggest trading chip if DM isnt willing to part with Fielder right now. He’s definitely a candidate to sell on a high.
would edmonds pass the physical of the other team?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Good Point
How does he pass the Brewers physical?
Follows the Kirk Gibson school of thinking “if you’re strong enough to stand up, you’re strong enough to play” Bobby Cox loves guys like that.
Physical
I think the physical only happens prior to signing the contract. He was healthy when the Brewers signed him… not banged up like he is today.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
right.
He doesn’t need to pass another Brewers physical. Some other team isn’t going to let the trade go through if he can’t pass theirs.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Well, like the Mug states
While injured he has been on a tear. Maybe there is a team that really would love his bat. Heck the Tigers could use him as their DH and maybe that extra win is the difference in the AL Central.
I think an AL team might waive the physical issue if only to get his bat in their lineup 2 or 3 times a week.
No compensation picks, though
Some incentive for picking up vets at the deadline is getting a compensation pick when they leave as a free agent. Anyone worth adding to the roster of the contender will quality for at least Type B compensation. If he’s serious about retiring, he isn’t worth a compensation pick in the draft.
I want Weeks to be on the team as long as Braun and Yovani
get it done Doug.
by warwick5s on Jul 27, 2010 2:21 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Agree 100%
Weeks is the best offensive 2B in the league this season. I know you can argue Cano the other way, and both would be very convincing arguments, but I’ll take the +3 in wRC that Weeks has over Cano.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Not worried about Weeks regressing?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Jul 27, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
What, are you trying to snipe me or something?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm not
He’s actually playing about as well as previous performance would indicate – he’s just healthy for once.
He playing better than any previous season.
The exception would be his partial season last year.
Also, wasn’t he healthy in 2007 and 2008?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Yep, he was healthy.
He’s finally getting over being mishandled by the management, and finally has a coach that’s getting to him
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Because I think you're smart enough to put together the 'whys'
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions
See above
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Where?
I’m not trying to be a wise guy (although I realize that I may be coming off that way).
Is it because Weeks has a higher WAR than Hart… or because Weeks plays a premium position?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
He’s finally getting over being mishandled by the management, and finally has a coach that’s getting to him
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions
You don't think the same is true about Hart?
BTW – I was thinking maybe it was related to his vision, but unless he’s gone to contacts, he’s coming to the plate with uncorrected vision.
Anyone read anything about that? I know in spring training it was discussed quite a bit, but I haven’t heard anything since then.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
WAR?
You want me to give you reasons why I’m not concerned about regression from Weeks and use WAR?
Last season, we saw the beginnings of this. Now that he’s healthy, he absolutely picked up where he left off. Every season has been an improvement for Weeks. Why would I expect that he’s going to take a huge crap in 2011?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
certainly if he doesn't crap for the remainder of 2010
he’ll have a monster crap in 2011. Assuming he doesn’t die of sepsis first.
/end sophomoric humor (temporarily)
by PagsBrewCrew on Jul 27, 2010 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Just throwing things out since I didn't know what you were referring to.
I would argue that every season hasn’t been an improvement for Weeks… particularly 2007-2008, when he was healthy.
I will agree that he has pretty much continued where he left off last season, which is a good indicator that it wasn’t a fluke.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You mean 2008 was a downgrade over 2007?
Thus no progress?
Quick glances show a low BABIP, LD% and HR/FB rates. I’d argue that he was getting relatively unlucky.
Why not for Hart? The slider away.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the notion that Hart can’t layoff the slider away has become partly mythical.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
No, that was his problem
His hands are lower, now, and maybe he’s overcome his douchey “I’m not going to sit there and walk” mindset that was making him swing at it.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
You could say the same thing about Weeks for 2007 and 2008... both seasons down from 2006.
Anyway, my point is that Weeks has finally figured it out thanks to Randolph. It’s possible that Hart has done the same while working with Sveum.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Jul 27, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought that was Mykenk's point
you know, the one I quoted above because I didn’t want to get into all of this crap?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Confused
I don’t quite understand your logic for being willing to sign Weeks to a long-term contract and not Hart, but whatever… I guess we’ll just have to agree to disagree.
Both players are having career years right now and could be attributed to the coaches that they’ve been working with (Randolph and Sveum). Both players have decent seasons followed by two poor seasons. The only thing in Weeks’ benefit is that he started showing the improvement last season before his injury, while Hart only started showing it this season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I am...
worried about Weeks regressing, but I think it’s worth the risk, depending on his contract demands.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 27, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I wish he was willing to move off 2B, in case Lawrie could play there
In the past I remember him refusing to, although that might change as he gets older.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
We don't know how good of a 2B Lawrie can be
If he can be average or above average then it would make sense to play him there, especially as Weeks ages.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Well we have scouting reports
That Lawrie is a work in progress. Which is fine, but if you already have a guy who can be a long-term 2B it makes sense to move Lawrie instead of dealing with him learning 2B his first 2-3 years in the big leagues.
We have no idea how Weeks will be at a different position. What if we move him to the OF, he is well below average and Lawrie is well below average at 2B?
Get a ife broseph
So does the organization keeping Lawrie at 2B imply that they don't view Weeks as a long time Brewer?
by KittenMittons on Jul 27, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think so.
I think that Lawrie has more value at second, to both our organization and others, and that if they do move him off 2B, it wouldn’t be that hard.
You can’t have players switch positions in the minors based on where you anticipate them playing in 2 years if that move is going to diminish their perceived value.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Outfield is simple.
You practice catching flies and fielding/stopping liners, and throwing it to the cutoff man. With infield positions, you have pickoff plays, double plays, stolen base coverages, running to take cutoff throws, etc. Other than occasionally backing up throws from one side of the field to the other, OF is pretty simple. It should only take a few weeks to move to the outfield. One might miss a couple plays a month that a more experienced outfielder would know how to deal with, but those are rather rare.
I guess put another way, Outfield is about execution…see ball, catch ball, throw ball. It does not demand nearly as much situational awareness. If any Major League caliber infielder glove cannot be taught to play serviceable outfield defense, I would be shocked. And no, Soriano was not a good infielder.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I would add the stipulation of needing at least a little speed
No way would I want to see JJ Hardy doing that little trot thing to get a ball in the corner.
“And that is a line drive to the corner, if its fair its trouble… He rounds 3rd just as JJ gets to the ball… 3 in the park Home Runs in one game, wow thats gotta be some kind of record!”
Right.
I think Braun is proof of this. They switched him to LF in spring training and was starting in LF that season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I believe he started working on it at the end of the last season
On his own or with a trainer or something but I thought I remember him taking flys and working in the outfield over the winter
I think I remember that too.
The point is that if a player is going to shift from the IF to the OF, they don’t really need to spend a season in the minors to learn to play it.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Actually, he is a Dick
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions
From the "it could be worse" files:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2010/7/26/1589493/the-towering-inferno-of-fail-which#storyjump
Jason Kendall is not the problem, he is the result of the problem. The problem is that the braintrust of this organization was idiotic enough to get addicted to Kendallthetimine, and they’re stuck scrubbing the toilet every 4 hours, scared of the idea of another catcher handling games.
A lot of the baseball hype that is unleashed is complete nonsense, and that applies to Jason Kendall in several fields.
Greg Maddox had caddies in Atlanta. What’s wrong with Zack Greinke having one and getting separated from Jason Kendall and his unfocused incoherent pitch calling schemes.
For fucks sake. This is an embarrassment.
I think you're missing the big picture, man
I mean the last time the Brewers went to the playoffs, Jason Kendall was the catcher.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Blaming Kendall for Greinke's 8-run implosion seems a little like scapegoating
If we don’t buy the old “Kendall’s a good game-caller!” line, then we can’t blame him for the reverse either.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Rickie Weeks.
Is pretty good:
<img src=“http://i918.photobucket.com/albums/ad25/Mykenk/Outrate.png”/ >
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Apparently...
According to B-R, he’s had 160 PAs as leadoff (most out of any batting order position).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Is out rate the additive inverse of on-base percentage?
Or is it slightly different?
Side note, I like healthy Rickie Weeks very much.
slightly different
correlates 98.5% with 1-OBP, there’s slight differences.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Probably not for everyday duty
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think they need anyone for everyday duty...
Cabrera has been decent playing in CF while McLouth was on the DL.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
ESPN just did a little mini-MLB preview for tonight
Breaking down all the “Aces on the mound” pitching.
Strasburg
CC Sabathia
Justin Verlander
Adam Wainwright
Cliff Lee
Josh Johnson.
…
I rewound to make sure they didn’t miss anyone. YoGa gets no respect.
ESPN is to sports what FOX is to news
by nullacct on Jul 27, 2010 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If by balanced, you mean catered to their largest demographic.
And if by fair, you mean completely and whole-heartedly agreeing with the “fair” opinions of their demographic.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
While he has improved this season
He’s still not particularly efficient, and he walks a lot of guys.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions
nice jinx!
"I've been banging a lot of bratwurst lately".
Uecker during the 8th inning of his first game back
No shit
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 27, 2010 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
78 | 55 | .586 | 0 | Won 4 |
|
St. Louis
|
69 | 62 | .526 | 8 | Lost 5 |
|
Houston
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Won 3 |
|
Milwaukee
|
62 | 71 | .466 | 16 | Lost 3 |
|
Chicago
|
57 | 77 | .425 | 21.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
44 | 89 | .330 | 34 | Lost 1 |
(updated 9.3.2010 at 9:13 AM CDT)
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
