Screw the Future...
by BrewCrewBrian on Jul 30, 2010 8:10 AM CDT
Email
PrintI am spit-balling here, and I don't think that this should happen but...
What if during the offseason Mark A/GM to be named later decides that they have the lineup to contend? They have Fielder and Hart under control for another year, and have the lineup to make a run. They know that they don't have a starter besides Gallardo and maybe Wolf. That leaves them with 3 open spots in the rotation, which is very hard to overcome, but Cliff Lee is a free agent and they might be able to pick up an arm via trade: something like Lawrie and Gomez for a young-ish, MLB ready pitcher that slots as a number 3/4 starter. (Again I don't like this for the organization, but I could see it happening.)
At that point the "traditional" lineup looks like:
2B Weeks
RF Hart
LF Braun
1B Fielder
3B McGehee
C Lucroy
CF Cain
SS Escobar
P
The Rotation:
1. Lee
1a. Gallardo
3/4 Wolf
3/4 New Guy
5. Loe/Parra/Narve Dog
Bullpen:
Closer: The Ax Man
Setup roles: Hawkins/Braddock
LOOGY: Stetter? - Haven't heard how he is doing in AAA
Middle Relief: Parra/Loe/Narveson, Villanueva, Jeffress(?)
Bench:
Backup Catcher: One of the AAA guys.
OF: Davis
1B/3B: Gamel
MI: Someone Cheap
OF:Gindl
They have a ton of money coming off the books - and some arbitration eligible players. But if they are able to bring Lee in, they might be able to pull it off.
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I agree:
That was the part about Screw the future…
by BrewCrewBrian on Jul 30, 2010 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions
So what
The goal isn’t to win 85 games. The goal is to win the World Series. Everything else is a failure, and there’s nothing more entertaining about a team that wins 53% of its games than a team that wins 43% of them if you have no hope of playing in the postseason. If the only option open to you is to sacrifice five years of your future to get there, then that’s what you do. If you can get the top arms to make a run, you do it. If you can’t, you plan to do it in five years. It doesn’t make sense to be satisfied fielding a team that will never win.
by nullacct on Jul 30, 2010 8:55 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
I guess that my disagreement with that logic is that
The team in place right now, is about a 78 win team. Add Lee and another pitcher for Lawrie and Gomez and that definitely makes you a contender, but there are big question marks in CF and that very young bullpen. Not to mention that the #4 and #5 spots are suspect as well. And its no guarantee that you wind up in the playoffs.
Its still a decent team that contends, but at the end of the year you have a big huge sucking sound with Fielder and Hart leaving, and Braun/Gallardo/Weeks all start getting very expensive (not to mention the $15+mil you probably have to pay Lee) and the result is a down product that costs a lot of money. I’m just not a big fan of the “one big shot, mortgage the future” type of strategy.
I would much rather have the solid, consitent team that is in contention and make a big move (Yes, I’m going against previous statements involving the Sabathia trade. I still think the team gave up too much for him. But he overperformed and it worked out well for the team.), than the team that signs expensive free agents and holds on to close to FA guys for one 89/90 win season followed by 5 73 win season.
We'd be fine without Fielder and Hart
We’ve got plenty of offense, but there’s no chance we could sign Lee to begin with so it doesn’t really matter. My opinion is that either you are in building mode or contending mode and it doesn’t pay to do anything else. Imo, this team can’t contend because we’re missing half a pitching staff, so we should be rebuilding.
I agree with your conclusion...
… but not so much with one of your premises. I’m not sure we’re going to be fine offensively without Fielder. That’s a lot of OPS walking out the door and the candidates to replace him at 1st base can’t hope to match his power, but also are unlikely to match his OBP. If Lucroy’s bat continues to develop that helps, but….
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 30, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Who is Davis?
Kentrail? Khris? Because neither of them are ready to be regular members of a big-league roster next year.
Must be Doug...
He’s seen what Ankiel did and is going to try the same thing.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Brewers would have to increase payroll quite a bit to sign Lee AND keep Hart/Fielder
Trading Fielder in the offseason for a young pitcher and signing Cliff Lee is more feasible, and something that I think would be awesome.
Yes, this has been a .500 and below team the past few years, but it hasn’t been a .500 and below offense. We still just need roughly league average pitching to contend, it’s just that we never get it year after year.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Fielding too
It’s hard to have average pitching when you’re one of the worst defensive teams in the majors. Unless you have a ton of power arms, that bad fielding will make even an average pitching staff look bad.
by kingcharlesxii on Jul 30, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
When they rebuild
I wouldn’t mind seeing a team built on pitching and defense. The kids like seeing a big wallop, but I’d rather scratch out runs than watch our D give up more than we can score.
Yeah, we'll be just like the mariners!!
just kidding of course, we could build a team with Lawrie at 1st, and already have a bigger offense than the M’s do.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Honestly I think this might be Doug Ms thought process.
We only have Weeks for 1 more year also.
If we can’t sign Weeks, Hart or Prince to long term deals the one shot wonder might be our best hope, if it doesn’t pan out we still do a firesale before the deadline next year. If it pans out then we make the playoffs and make a run and deal with rebuilding.
Fact is with Hart and Prince and Weeks all leaving after next year our offense will no longer be an above average offense and even with pitching we would be right back where we are now.
This teams window is closing fast and 2011 is that chance. Hence why I would rather at least wait to the off season to trade Prince, at least then you will possibly get more for him with more teams considering themselves contenders.
Personally,
I disagree on almost every count.
I think Prince will be traded, while Hart and Weeks both get 3-4 year contracts. Hart will be the richest man on the team, Weeks will be third. But those two guys, with Braun actually hitting like an all star at some point, are enough to carry a team. Lucroy actually looks like he will be a legitimate hitting catcher, while Escobar has shown that he does know, sometimes, what he is doing at the plate. I think the offense sans Fielder is just fine next year. Lawrie won’t be a big leaguer right away, so don’t count on him playing first. It’s more likely that they will have Gamel work at first in spring training and just let him stick there, because it’s growing ever more apparent that he cannot be a big league third baseman. Failing that, Melvin will bring somebody in.
As far as free agent pitching, Cliff Lee is going to be a Yankee. Melvin would be better off going after Tim Hudson. There really won’t be much quality starting pitching available this year, unfortunately. Count on the Fielder trade to bring somebody in, and count on Wolf being at least a LITTLE better. I also think Parra will figure out how to pitch effectively.
Further:
Narveson should be packaged with somebody like McGehee or Fielder in a trade before other teams figure out that he will never be more than a #5 starter.
Brett Lawrie should be moved to third base and given as much time in AAA as it takes for him to learn the position. I don’t think he will hit enough to be an elite corner outfielder, but he probably can be an all star third baseman later on.
Open the door for Cain to become the starting center fielder from day one. Give both Gomez and Cain a specific list of goals to be accomplished before the season begins, tailored to each player’s needs, and honestly evaluate their progress. Make it well known that it is not Gomez’ job to lose, but rather either player’s job to win. And don’t pull a fucking move like this year where Suppan somehow won the final starting spot in the rotation. Learn from your mistakes.
Fast track these players: Kentrail Davis, Khris Davis, Kyle Heckathorn, Logan Shafer, Cody Hawn/Hunter Morris
What about McGehee? You just want Lawrie to go to 3rd, but we have an everyday starter there. Casey Captain Clutch McGehee.
What's your alternative?
If Weeks and Hart are signed to multi-year deals, and Gamel is a better bat at first, where would you put the top prospect? I see McGehee as a place holder. He ought to bring back something decent in a trade next June.
I mean
the next best thing I can think of is to trade McGehee this winter, move Weeks to third, keep Lawrie at second, and let Farris start there next year.
Pretty high on Farris. Not sure if he could make the jump. I’d move Lawrie to short, or to the outfield. If you can’t keep fielder, I’d move Lawrie to 1st.
That's not really an option.
He’s not a shortstop. He won’t stick at second because he’s not a very good fielder, so it’s a certainty that he will not be a shortstop. the idea is to move him out of a “glove” position and into a “bat” position. Third is probably your best bet because the offensive production you’d expect from that spot is much less than you’d expect from first base or right field. The fact that Brewers fans are so high on McGehee is a testament to that fact.
Farris is very fast and can hit for average, while also playing a good second base. He’ll be a major leaguer before long.
The Brewers let Weeks stay at 2B, why does everybody think they're going to move Lawrie?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Third is probably your best bet because the offensive production you’d expect from that spot is much less than you’d expect from first base or right field.
I don’t think whether or not a guy can hit enough for a position is relevant. We will likely have Gamel, McGehee, and Lawrie all on the team at the same time. Put them in the alignment that makes our defense best. Guy doesn’t hit well enough to play 1B. So what. He is in the lineup regardless. It isn’t like moving them around would make our offense better.
The only other consideration would be who will be with the team longest. Put them at the easiest defensive position. That leaves us with more options when they have to be replaced. We can either get a RF/3B and move the current guy to 1B or get a 1B. It is easier to move guys right on the defensive spectrum than right.
Besides, 3B, LF and RF all have pretty similar stat lines. All within about 30 points of OPS.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
For clarity's sake
The rotation, in my world, looks like this next year
Gallardo
Hudson
Wolf
(trade)
Parra, on a medium-length leash with Amaury Rivas at AAA.
Offense:
Weeks
Escobar
Braun
Hart
McGehee
Gamel
Lucroy
Cain
Pitcher
Bench:
Gomez
Inglett
Farris
Kottaras
Koshansky? Norris Hopper? I don’t know. Free agent maybe. Hopefully not Jody Gerut.
Sounds like 75 wins to me.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Jul 31, 2010 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Enough with Parra. He’s been given more chances that he deserves. He had a flash of something last year, but this year he’s still just a mediocre pitcher. Move him to the bullpen at least. There he was much better.
Narveson is Parra Lite. I like the guy, but he’s one of those “always has one bad inning” kinda guys. I’d like to see what Rivas or Alex Periard can do. Josh Butler could be an option. If Marco Estrada can get some longevity and stamina he could also be a option. Scarpetta and Odorizzi are about 2-3 years away from attempting to make the bigs. It may be the case of spagetti tossing.
Why not?
Brewers will have the money and it seems Mark A. and Melvin really want to land a pitcher like that. Last year they apparently tried hard for both Sabathia and Halladay.*
Never great odds when we’re up against the Yankees, but I think Mark A. would do backflips to get a Lee deal done (especially after this year’s dismal pitching)
*Please, nobody turn this into a debate about whether or not Melvin was “lying” about said attempts, as I’m sure someone will…
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 1, 2010 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I seriously doubt that we will be willing to pay
As much as the big market teams will be willing to fork out, and that Lee will want to come to Milwaukee. Why would he sign a contract with us to only be able to win one year, and then have our best players leave as free agents? For a guy like him wouldn’t it make more sense to play in NY or LA where you have a chance to win every year?
I already bought a custom Cliff Lee Brewers jersey
(I had them spell out “Cliff Lee” so nobody confuses it with Carlos)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 1, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Are we allowed to at least not drink the Melvin-ade and believe everything he says?
Or are Brewer fans required to line up behind him and kiss his ass on demand?
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2010 7:45 PM CDT up reply actions
The later.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
nope, he just didn't finish his sentence.
The later it is, the more likely I am to be hammered.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I’m not sure it’s kissing his ass to not suspect that he fabricated a nine figure contract offer.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I'm quite certain no one suggested he fabricated that offer.
What I don’t care for is the preemptive (and retroactive) attempt to belittle anyone who thinks Melvin might be gilding the lilly a bit on other issues. And I find the notion that we should take anything Gord Ash says shortly before the trade deadline at face value to be completely laughable.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 1, 2010 11:28 PM CDT up reply actions
We shouldn't take anything Melvin or Ash say at face value
ever when they are talking about players. Given the trades that have happened I think we can say that it was a buyer’s market and the best choice may have been to hold onto Fielder and Hart. Maybe they got a good offer, maybe they didn’t.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
This is the kind of pointless/off-topic debate I was hoping to avoid.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 2, 2010 2:36 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Then you shouldn't have been a dick about it.
I wouldn’t have said anything at all if you hadn’t thrown in your condescending jab at those who might disagree with you. You don’t get to avoid arguments by preemptively insulting those who disagree and suggesting they shouldn’t argue with you on that point.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 4, 2010 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
zzzz.....
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 4, 2010 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions
And it's not off topic.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 4, 2010 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Tim Hudson signed a 3 year contract before 2010
So unless you want to trade for him, he wont be on his way to Milwaukee.
I’m all for extending Weeks, but Hart could be very “Bill Hall-esque”. Besides, RF is going to be where Brett Lawrie eventually winds up.
Interesting point
You’re right, it looks like he did sign an extension in Nov 2009. For some reason, Cot’s has him on their list of potential free agents. Here is that list (asterisks denote 2011 options):
Starting Pitchers
Bronson Arroyo CIN *
Josh Beckett BOS
Jeremy Bonderman DET
David Bush MIL
Daniel Cabrera CWS
Matt Cain SF *
Jorge De La Rosa COL
Jeff Francis COL *
Jon Garland SD *
Aaron Harang CIN *
Tim Hudson ATL
Cliff Lee SEA
Ted Lilly CHC
Braden Looper MIL
Noah Lowry SF
Kevin Millwood BAL
Jamie Moyer PHI
Vicente Padilla LAD
Nate Robertson FLA
Ian Snell SEA *
Jeff Suppan STL
Javier Vazquez NYY
Brandon Webb ARI
Jake Westbrook CLE
Dontrelle Willis ARZ
Chris Young SD *
But you can look at the list of free agent first basemen, right fielders, and third basemen too...
And trade one of the Brewers at those positions for another pitcher too. It’s all about creativity. More on this tomorrow.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Ted Lilly, and Josh Beckett all look like good options for a free agent. If we are going over pay any free agent, at least let it be on someone that actually performs!
"No player is greater than a team."
-Vince Lombardi
Brandon Webb
He should have an interesting Free Agency. He wants to pitch out of the pen this year, and that seems like he’s rushing back. He could end up hurting himself once again.
He’s certainly the most High Risk : High Reward player on the market this off-season.
I wonder what his market will be. Sheets got $10 Mil; will his injury dampen Webb’s market?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
If they really wanted to "go for it" and screw the future ...
… they would trade some low-level guys with high upside for Zack Greinke, who is pissed at KC and is “only” due $13.5 million for each of the next two seasons. If KC really thinks that they’ll be good in 2-3 years we probably have some guys they would be interested in. The Brewers could probably handle Greinke’s contract without too much trouble, but would it be worth the drought that would begin in 2013?
Of course, given the front office history in KC, I would definitely start with a lowball offer. They seem to love low-OBP guys (cough GOMEZ cough).
Might as well just sign Cliff Lee if we're going all out in the next couple years.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 6, 2010 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions
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