Maybe Not Too Early Anymore: Hitters "On Pace"
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 6, 2010 1:00 PM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
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PrintWe're not quite to the All Star Break, but we're past the season's mathematical halfway point, so now seems like as good a time as any to take a look at some of the things the Brewers are on pace (or not on pace) to accomplish this season. Here are a few examples:
- The Brewers are on pace to win 72 games, which would be their lowest win total since 2004, when they went 67-94.
- Rickie Weeks, who has never made more than 560 plate appearances in a season, is on pace to make 763, which would break Paul Molitor's franchise record (751, set in 1982).
- Corey Hart is on pace to lead the Brewers with 37 home runs. If he gets there, it'll be the fifth straight season the Brewers have had a batter hit at least 35. (Prince Fielder is also on pace for 35.)
- So much for running more: Ryan Braun is on pace to lead the Brewers with 21 stolen bases (in 23 attempts). Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar and Rickie Weeks are on pace for 18, 12 and 10, respectively.
- Despite batting just .202 and being on pace to play in just 72 games, George Kottaras is on pace for 12 home runs, which is more than all Brewer catchers hit in 2008 and 2009 combined.
- In 2009 Prince Fielder walked 110 times, becoming the first Brewer ever to record 100 walks in a season. He's on pace to break 100 again this season with 103.
- Rickie Weeks is the only Brewer on pace to score 100 runs. He's also on pace for 29 HBP, which would break Fernando Vina's franchise record of 25, and could challenge Jose Hernandez's record for strikeouts (on pace for 182, Hernandez had 188).
- Alcides Escobar is on pace for ten triples: He'd be just the fourth Brewer ever to reach that mark, and the first since Vina in 1996. Robin Yount did it four times, and Paul Molitor did it twice.
- So much for regression: Casey McGehee is on pace for 162 hits, 25 home runs and 102 RBI.
- Ryan Braun is on pace to become just the fifth Brewer ever to record 45 doubles. Corey Hart (45 in 2008), Lyle Overbay (53 in 2004), Jeff Cirillo (46 in 1996 and 1997) and Robin Yount (49 in 1980, 46 in 1982) are the others.
- Carlos Gomez is on pace to be worth -1.1 wins (according to B-Ref) in 394 plate appearances. That'd be tied for the ninth worst season ever by a Brewer with 350 PAs.
- Corey Hart's 37 home runs would demolish his previous career high (24, set in 2007). He's also on pace to set a career high in RBI: His 119 runs batted in would be tie the ninth highest total in team history.
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I'm partial to the Gomez WAR stat, m'self.
Doug’s gotta feel lucky that Hardy’s been hurt this year and hasn’t played much.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Jul 6, 2010 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
A fun tweet by Jim Breen at Bernie's Crew
Can we talk about how Melvin had a chance to significantly upgrade team w/ the Hardy trade and whiffed? Evaluate talent better. #brewers
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
We CAN talk about it, sure.
But it just makes me sad.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Jul 6, 2010 1:34 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Also
a lot of Melvin apologists will get butthurt. That’s never good.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly.
I’m no Gomez fan & I’m sure DM could have done better.
But “significant upgrade” is a vast overstatement , imho.
Not if he would have traded him, say, at peak value
Something I’ll bet The Mustache won’t figure out with Hart, either.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions
If you'd like to argue that, I won't disagree
at this point, however, Hart’s value cannot get higher.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Not so sure about that.
If that 20-game streak stretches to thirty, thirty-five, forty… he starts getting daily updates and name recognition. If he hits just as many dingers in the second half, 40+ sticks out.
Oh, right
So it IS the smartest thing to wait until the off-season.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait, what am I thinking!
This is the guy who went from first half all-star to utter garbage in 2 weeks in 2008! Yes, I am sure his value couldn’t get any higher!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
that is just plain devilish.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Jul 6, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Meh. It could have been much worse.
There was talk of extending JJ & dealing away AE. Nobody saw JJs cliff diving act coming.
Hart is a much easier call to deal away. Corners are way easier to fill than up the middle.
I can't find it
But before the 2009 season, I remember somebody posting comparisons that Hardy’s future wasn’t very bright.
That and two bucks will get you on any bus in town.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
Define not very bright.
JJ went from 277/323/463 & 283/343/478 to 229/302/357 & a trip to the minors.
Whomever saw that big of a drop coming, please get a job with the Brewers as soon as you prove you aren’t a liar.
OK, found it
It was from Kyle. Here:
From first reading, it looks like I oversold it, but here’s the money quote I was remembering:
With that said, though, the five comps listed above provide a surprisingly low long-term upside for a player many of us consider to be one of the faces of the franchise. We all seem to be in agreement that Hardy will make a fortune as a free agent in 2010, but history might suggest Hardy’s most productive years might already be behind him at that point.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
by stigmo on Jul 6, 2010 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So where do I apply for my job, then?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 6, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Application denied.
Not to be a semantic dick but predicting that JJ may not really be that good long term is not the same thing as predicting an immediate plummet to replacement level.
Still nice legwork & writeup though.
Another quote from the comments
I like JJ but I think that like many of the players on his list of comps he will not age well. He is not a smooth athlete. He is rigid with his swing, running style and especially his throwing motion. It would scare me to give him a long term contract for the money he’ll command.
Hopefully he has one more really good year. Then I would trade him for pitching and turn over the job to Escobar.
Again, I’m not saying I expected this, but it appears a couple folks here on BCB did.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
Every once in a while
somebody finds a nugget of premonition hiding in the corner of Mom’s basement.
SRS BSNS
Are people going to think less of me if I rec a post that quotes me?
Really, I’m impressed by the legwork to find it. I remember writing that post now, but before you mentioned it I’d forgotten it existed.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I'm just excited to get a rec.
I don’t have a lot to offer here, but I do have a pretty good memory. And when JJ went into the tank, I remember thinking “Hey, somebody at BCB said this might happen!” And while klwillis isn’t impressed, the quote said it all (Hardy’s best years are behind him) at a time when he was looked at as a burgeoning perennial All-Star.
Steve
http://nohuddleoffense.blogspot.com
The demand for weak hitting CF is overflowing too
Well, that’s Doug’s position, anyway.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
As is the demand for pitchers who project to be Suppan.
Bowden has yet to prove he’s not Ben Hendrickson.
Full disclosure: I would have went with Bowden over Gomez but I wouldn’t exactly be doing backflips over it.
I'd be happier with a guy who can pitch a couple of innings
than a guy who can’t even get on base at his career .292 clip.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions
The Mazeroski line
If you don’t want a Hall of Famer’s name, you could use Larry Bowa. I think the Russell line has a nice ring to it.
Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.
Gomez is really going to have to tear it up in the second half to make my "breakout season" prediction come true!
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 6, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions
You know I hate it.
If you’re good enough to take second 75% of the time, at least half the time you should be stealing.
Sex panther: 60% of the time, it works everytime.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jul 6, 2010 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not gonna lie to you that smells like pure gasoline
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions
it smells worse than the time the raccoon got in the copier
"Cubs fans boo again – 99% of these people can’t see the plate." -Ueck
it smells like a turd wrapped in burning hair!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jul 6, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions
I have no idea what you're talking about
So I’m going to assume that it’s snarky. In which case, thanks for mocking me.
It's an Anchorman reference.
I wouldn’t take it as an insult.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jul 6, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
No kidding!
I was thinking the same exact thing. Honestly, the offense has been scoring runs (some days) so it hasn’t been a huge issue, but we have some guys with some speed so what’s the deal?
They are stealing quite a bit more than last year
Not sure I understand the implication that they aren’t.
They are on pace for 88 SBs this year and have had a 76% success rate.
Last year they had 68 SBs with a 64% success rate.
Get a ife broseph
Last years Weeks was hurt and we didn't have Gomez and Escobar.
They should be stealing bases a LOT more than last year. In my opinion, Gomez and Escobar should both have at least 50 SB attempts by the time the season is over.
(Comment re: how Gomez probably won't get on base 50 times for the rest of the season.)
I’m lazy.
SRS BSNS
1 out of 5 times, he is going to steal.
Ouch.
by Bush League All Star on Jul 6, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, it's probably a little higher than that.
He’s got 5 homers and 2 triples, so there were at least 7 instances when he wasn’t going to steal, no matter what.
SRS BSNS
Paring that down a bit
14 of those times on base were extra base hits, so that knocks it down to 39 times on first base. For some of those there was presumably a runner on second.
So, he has ten attempts in 40 times on first base (including one HBP), or 25%.
Juan Pierre leads baseball with 30 stolen bases (39 attempts). But he’s also been on first 73 times via single, 23 times via walk and ten via HBP (106 chances).
So Gomez attempts to steal second in 25% of opportunities, while Pierre does it in 36%.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
He has 13 hits with a runner on first.
So your numbers are probably pretty close. Though I disagree that XBH allows you to say he can’t steal in those situations. If he doubled (7 times this season), I think it’s probably likely that he could steal third in almost all those situations.
Either way, you all have convinced me that it’s not quite as egregious as I thought, though I still think he should be stealing closer to Pierre’s rate (~40%). Also, what about Esky?
And Juan Pierre is still playing and starting somewhere? Huh.
Even if it was at Pierre’s rate, with as infrequently that Gomez gets on base and plays, that would mean about 4.5 more attempts thusfar, not all that much.
Just my opinion – Escobar looks unsure of himself on the base paths and doesn’t seem comfortable getting big jumps or taking big leads. That pick off yesterday just one example.
Another opininon – I wonder if Rickie’s wrist is preventing him from stealing more often. I know the brace is precautionary, but the fact that he is wearing it means he has some hesitation sliding head first. It also looks like he has bulked up, his speed is likely not what it once was.
Get a ife broseph
FWIW
Baseball reference has “SB Opportunities” under Baserunning & Misc. Stats on their batting stat pages (example: Gomez). It’s a total of all times the batter was on 1st or 2nd with the next base open. Still flawed, but a good starting point for a speedy guy. I wish they would break it into opportunities by next base since including times third base is open is dumb when you’re talking about a plodder or just about anyone not named Ryan J. Braun, but I digress. Gomez has 10 SB/CS in 52 opportunities.
Also, to further refine your numbers, Gomez has also reached on errors 4 times. Juan Ivan Pierre has 3 ROE.
Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.
I mean, for christs sake, Gomez has one redeeming offensive quality.
If you’re not going to use that to negate the negative affects of his other offensive “skills”, then whats the point of trading for him?
At least he plays good defense...
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Well, using Fangraphs’ WAR and (in my opinion) superior defensive metrics, he’s on pace for +0.6 wins
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 6, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
The reality is probably somewhere between the two.
Both methods are using half a season of outfield defensive data, which is nowhere close to a full sampling.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Escobar
Last year in Nashville, Alcides had 42 steals out of 52 attempts in 109 games himself. Granted he was getting on base a bit more than he has been this year, that is still 2/3 of the entire Brewers total last year. When you have players with this speed and you tell us you are going to use it, then use it!
Lineup position
Consider the fact that he’s buried near the bottom of the order. He’s likely not going to get the green light with two outs and the pitcher up to bat.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I'd like to see a study of this.
Where, exactly, is a good spot in the lineup to steal bases?
If you’re hitting 1, 2 or 3, you’re likely stealing and risking outs in front of your best hitters.
If you’re hitting 4 or 5, you’re likely not a speed guy.
If you’re hitting 7 or 8, you shouldn’t be running with the pitcher batting.
So, if you’ve got a guy that can steal bases, the only spot in the order for him is #6?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 6, 2010 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good question
My understanding is that you want the speed guys at the top of the order stealing bases to get into scoring position when the best hitters come to the plate.
Being buried at the bottom of the order doesn’t give many chances to steal since you don’t want to get thrown out and have the pitcher lead-off next inning (if there are two outs). If there is one or no outs, then the pitcher will likely try to sac bunt.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
How often can you steal while being bunted over?
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
More importantly
If you can steal, why are you being bunted over?
If Gomez can steal successfully at an 85-90% clip, why not have him steal second and have the pitcher bunt him to third?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
the brewers are on pace this season to upgrade my drinking status from "social" to "problem"
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Jul 6, 2010 2:55 PM CDT reply actions 18 recs
I will be stealing this for my own personal use
I left a rec as payment.
by ecocd on Jul 6, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm doing the same.
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jul 6, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Reply fail, but you get the idea
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Jul 6, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I am the only one?
Rickie Weeks, who has never made more than 560 plate appearances in a season, is on pace to make 763, which would break Paul Molitor’s franchise record (751, set in 1982).
Who saw this link and immediately thought, Oh #*&$! There is no way he is reaching that number now.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
and by link
I meant statement.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Jul 6, 2010 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Gallardo is going on the DL after all
AdamMcCalvy
Gallardo to DL after all (left oblique). Officially rules him out for All-Star Game. D Davis activated from DL. Story coming to Brewers.com
by Nick Barnett's Afro on Jul 6, 2010 4:41 PM CDT reply actions
meh. whats the point
This tean is obviously dead in the water anyways, give the speed guts the green light. What’s the worst that happens – we lose a couple more games and finish with 68 wins instead of 72? Blech
He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…
by jarlbartar on Jul 7, 2010 5:21 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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