On Carlos Gomez and Base Stealing
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2010 1:23 PM CDT
in Statistical Analysis
33 comments
In the comments of yesterday's post on Brewers on pace, we had the start of an interesting conversation about Carlos Gomez and stolen bases. I wanted to see if I could take that a step further today.
Opportunity
One argument for Gomez's lack of steals is that he's rarely on base, which is true. But that's not the whole story. There are 12 players in the majors who have stolen at least 20 bases this season. As you might imagine, all 12 have been on first base more often than Gomez, but all but one also attempt steals a higher percentage of the time once they get there:
| Player | SB | CS | On 1st* | Attempt % |
| Rajai Davis | 26 | 5 | 66 | 47% |
| B.J. Upton | 24 | 6 | 69 | 43.5% |
| Carl Crawford | 29 | 8 | 96 | 38.5% |
| Juan Pierre | 32 | 9 | 107 | 38,3% |
| Alex Rios | 22 | 8 | 80 | 37.5% |
| Michael Bourn | 26 | 7 | 93 | 35.5% |
| Scott Podsednik | 24 | 10 | 110 | 30.9% |
| Brett Gardner | 24 | 5 | 102 | 28.4% |
| Elvis Andrus | 22 | 10 | 119 | 26.9% |
| Chone Figgins | 23 | 4 | 106 | 25.5% |
| Andrew McCutchen | 20 | 6 | 103 | 25.2% |
| Carlos Gomez | 9 | 1 | 41 | 24.4% |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 22 | 7 | 119 | 24.4% |
| Ryan Braun** | 11 | 1 | 75 | 16% |
* - Times on 1st in this case includes singles, walks and HBP. It does not include fielder's choices or reaching on errors. Both omissions are notable but likely wouldn't lead to a significant change in the findings.
** - Just for fun, I tossed Brewer SB leader Ryan Braun into the charts as well.
Follow the jump for more of my findings.
Bases Gained
So, we've established that Carlos Gomez is running less often than the stolen base leaders. What you might also have noticed above, though, is that he's been very successful when he runs, taking the base 90% of the time.
It's been widely said that the break-even point for base stealers is roughly two-thirds. If you can make it more often than that you're helping your team - anything less and you're hurting them. If you accept that notion you can create a relatively simple formula for bases gained via steal:
Bases gained = SB - (CS*2)
This is where it starts to get interesting. Using that formula, we can show that Braun (9 bases gained) and Gomez (7 bases gained) have actually helped their teams more than some of the stolen base leaders:
| Player | SB | CS | Bases gained |
| Rajai Davis | 26 | 5 | 16 |
| Chone Figgins | 23 | 4 | 15 |
| Brett Gardner | 24 | 5 | 14 |
| Juan Pierre | 32 | 9 | 14 |
| Carl Crawford | 29 | 8 | 13 |
| B.J. Upton | 24 | 6 | 12 |
| Michael Bourn | 26 | 7 | 12 |
| Ryan Braun | 11 | 1 | 9 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 20 | 6 | 8 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 22 | 7 | 8 |
| Carlos Gomez | 9 | 1 | 7 |
| Alex Rios | 22 | 8 | 6 |
| Scott Podsednik | 24 | 10 | 4 |
| Elvis Andrus | 22 | 10 | 2 |
Average Contribution
There's more, though: Most of the stolen base leaders have significantly more trips to the plate than Gomez, who has made just 206 plate appearances, compared to 374 for Ichiro and 300+ for many of the others.
If you divide bases gained via steal by plate appearances, Gomez actually starts to drift within shouting distance of the most prolific base stealers in the game:
| Player | Bases Gained | PA | Gain/PA |
| Rajai Davis | 16 | 279 | .057 |
| Brett Gardner | 14 | 299 | .047 |
| Chone Figgins | 15 | 357 | .042 |
| B.J. Upton | 12 | 309 | .039 |
| Juan Pierre | 14 | 363 | .039 |
| Carl Crawford | 13 | 346 | .038 |
| Michael Bourn | 12 | 338 | .036 |
| Carlos Gomez | 7 | 206 | .034 |
| Ryan Braun | 9 | 365 | .025 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 8 | 347 | .023 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 8 | 374 | .021 |
| Alex Rios | 6 | 321 | .019 |
| Scott Podsednik | 4 | 361 | .011 |
| Elvis Andrus | 2 | 361 | .006 |
Conclusions
Take away from this what you will, but here's what I'm seeing:
- After crunching the numbers, I'm not convinced that Gomez's lack of stolen base attempts is a problem. By stealing less often but more effectively, he's actually had a comparable positive outcome to many of the game's most prolific swipers.
- I didn't think stolen bases were all that relevant before, but I'm coming away from this thinking they're even less important. There are only a handful of guys in all of baseball using them to make more than a marginal contribution.
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* – Times on 1st in this case includes singles, hits and HBP. It does not include fielder’s choices or reaching on errors. Both omissions are notable but likely wouldn’t lead to a significant change in the findings.
Do you mean walks?
I am sorry
that my greatest contribution to this site is being the first person to read articles and find mistakes
by Jeo on Jul 7, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Hey, that's a significant contribution.
For as long as I don’t have a copy editor, I’m counting on you and others to quickly locate places where I screw up, so I can fix them before more people see them.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Not all bases are equal
I completely disagree with the people who downplay baserunning and its value. For example, using your SB-CS*2 formula above, Rickey Henderson would only have added 46 bases (.070 gain/PA) in is record-breaking season of 1982. However, people completely overlook the fact that a runner on second is worth 80% more than a runner on first. There’s a reason Rickie scored 119 runs that reason despite no one on the team hitting higher than .267.
I would agree that a strategy used less often can be more effective, but I’m in strong disagreement with these sabermetrics folks about the value of taking an extra base. Considering how many runners we leave stranded all the time I would think this community would be as much in favor of an aggressive running game as any other.
Look at it this way: A strikeout and a caught stealing cost the ball club exactly the same thing – one out, without any collateral damage. They add and subtract no additional risk. So if we view their stolen bases as turning singles into doubles, and their caught stealing as turning singles into outs, then you can see why Don Mattingly had 145 RBIs in 1985 – the guy at the top of the lineup ahead of him was effectively hitting .296 with 108 doubles. That’s a ton of RISP.
by nullacct on Jul 7, 2010 3:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
However, people completely overlook the fact that a runner on second is worth 80% more than a runner on first. There’s a reason Rickie scored 119 runs that reason despite no one on the team hitting higher than .267.
I think you’re completely overlooking the fact that a runner on first is worth infinitely more than no one on +1 out.
46 bases is a lot more, and certainly base stealing is significant if you can do it that successfully. But the fact that you had to point out the most prolific base stealer of all time to make your point kind of makes mine too: A base stealer good enough to be relevant is pretty rare. There are only seven base stealers in all of baseball this season on pace to have half of Henderson’s impact.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2010 3:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If we put '82 Henderson into the tables above:
He steals 30% more often than Rajai Davis, and his base stealing is worth .07 bases of gain per PA, which is also much more than anyone else on the chart.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I semi-agree
It takes a pretty prolific basestealer to really make a significant impact through SB alone, and even then the impact isn’t huge.
But don’t you think Gomez has much more potential than he’s being allowed to show? I doubt he has the instincts to be as good as Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman, but he certainly has the raw speed to rack up some big SB totals. Podsednik, for example, was worth 6 and 7 RAR through his basestealing in his two seasons here. If Gomez could become a 70+ SB guy (why not?) and start playing excellent defense again, he could be a pretty valuable player despite his apparent inability to hit.
Given that the Brewers are basically out of it, I would have Gomez run every time he’s on base in the second half just to see how good he can be. Won’t happen though, of course.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 7, 2010 4:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Not infinitely more.
I’m assuming a runner on second is worth ~80% more, based on the larger tendency for 30% of all runners on first to score, and 55% of all runners on second to score. If you are caught stealing it’s -.3 runs, if you are successful it’s +.25 runs. Second base is worth more than first because the runner scores on a single – not just an EBH or multiple hits.
It might be worth even more than that in the long run, since the tendency for runners to be on second base happens when there are more outs in the inning, yet they still score at a 55% rate. Maybe they’re worth twice as much.
I don't think it is infinite
Isn’t there a run expectancy matrix that would tell you the difference?
I think it would be interesting to see what your charts would say in a steal-happy time like the 80s. Henderson is the first one to come to mind when discussing steals, but there were plenty of other guys stealing back then. I also think the second chart should be bases gained per time on base, since you can’t steal from the dugout.
Anyway, the reason there aren’t many runners on pace to make Henderson’s impact is there are far more doubles and homers even in this neo-Year of the Pitcher than there were in the 1980s and, in fact, in almost any year since the 1930s. If speed guys can score from first more often on doubles or home runs, there’s less reason to steal, exciting as the play may be.
To have someone today be on pace to make Henderson’s impact, they would have to play for an awful offensive team. I wonder where Chone Figgins would be if he wasn’t having a down year at the plate. I suspect if the Brewers were as punchless, Gomez would be running wild.
Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.
Also, and I promise this is my last reply before letting someone else talk
If you turn Henderson’s 1982 SB into doubles and his CS into strikeouts, he actually would have hit much less than .296…He only hit .267 in 1982, even before adjusting the numbers.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Now calculate his base-stealing-equivalent OPS
nullact also fails to take into account the situation of stealing 3rd from 2nd. I doubt Henderson only stole 2nd. The strikeout vs. double analogy breaks down a little there.
If I were King
Or even if I was only in charge of the world of baseball stats, I’d track steals of second and third separately. To me, they’re entirely different situations with entirely different risks and rewards.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jul 7, 2010 4:15 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Baseball Reference does it
Henderson’s ’82 (link):
94 steals of 2nd, 26 CS
34 steals of 3rd, 13 CS
2 steals of home, 3 CS
I wish they would break down stolen base opportunities the same way, but something is better than nothing.
Eagerly awaiting SBN Madison.
When figuring in third base steals
You only calculate the risk (losing a RISP) vs. the gain (a runner on third with less than two outs scores via SF). I’ve heard some players say that third base is the easiest to steal, but the numbers don’t support it, and the risk is almost always too high to support. Henderson stole third a lot, and so did some other faster players in the 80s when they got the matchup they wanted. But KL is right ^^ two totally different sets of risk.
I am with you on this crusade.
I was always coached to be smart and aggressive on the base paths.
I don’t know if Saber will support this, but my coaches stressed that a good running game will also help hitters in a sense. Our teams that ran saw more fastballs at the plate and that was confirmed by Y/Y stats held by the student assistant coaches. It does not have a correlation between batting average and stolen bases though (figuring seeing more fastballs raises your BA).
Maybe in the majors, catchers are the cream of the crop and can throw guys out more (except Kottaras). But even then, a good running game may help in some aspects of strategy.
by Bush League All Star on Jul 7, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
It's like a lot of things in baseball, though
If a player is only good at one thing, they tend not to be too highly valued. A player that hits .300 for his career, but slugs .350 and rarely walks would be useful, but not necessarily valuable (Ichiro takes his walks, too).
Stealing bases on its own is just another facet to a player’s game that can either add or remove value. I don’t know if anyone drops a big contract on a base stealer for being a base stealer.
If stealing bases were ever valued highly, wouldn’t the Moneyball philosophy have picked up on it at some point or does that mean it’s currently overvalued as a skill? Were there other GMs laughing themselves silly at Melvin’s claim to be investing in speed?
The 'great minds' of baseball aren't terribly bright
If they were smart they wouldn’t have laid bets on every making it as far as they have in their career, considering the odds. I’m sure that some GMs were laughing at anyone valuing speed, but speed differs from every other player characteristic – it isn’t teachable, and it never takes a day off. Even when Gomez is clumsy as hell he’s still at least getting to the ball in CF, and when he’s waved around he’s scoring from second on more balls than anyone else.
And while we're at it
Feel free to hammer on me for supporting the fragile virtues of basestealing and speed. I’m quite aware that it’s unpopular, and I’m willing to take as much crap as I deserve for it, or more. I fully realize that I’m supporting it purely out of instinct and trying to formulate theories to support it, rather than being completely objective. I love stolen bases, always have.
I fully realize that I’m supporting it purely out of instinct and trying to formulate theories to support it, rather than being completely objective.
Don’t worry about it, dude. I have a similar problem with Dave Bush — I hate him purely out of instinct and try to formulate theories to bash him.
SRS BSNS
There are more than two sides to an argument
There’s nothing wrong with saying you like stolen bases. One aspect of baseball that drives quants crazy is the “intangibles” argument. Part of why it drives them crazy is because they/we all know it’s there, but it’s not easily quantifiable.
One thing I like about stolen bases is how a good base stealer can get inside a pitcher’s head. I can’t believe a pitcher can put the exact same amount of concentration on pitches when a man is at first as with the bases empty and it goes doubly so for a guy that’s going to try stealing 30+% of the time. Some pitchers handle it better than others, but it’s difficult to quantify that.
….
..
.
To give an example of how hard it can be to quantify this aspect of the game – I’m sorry, I can’t help myself! – let’s take a look at pitchers with at least 100 IP this season. Clayton Richard of the Padres has a WHIP of 1.32 which puts him 48th of 71 pitchers. His LOB% is 80.4% putting him at 7th. Meanwhile, Jamie Moyer has an LOB% of 67.0% while only allowing 1.06 WHIP. that’s hardly statistical proof that Clayton richard is better with men on base than Jamie Moyer.
… and that’s the point entirely. It’s imperfect and there’s never a large enough sample size to make proper evaluations of this trait.
Not every aspect of baseball is objective, much to the chagrin of many stat heads, myself included.
This might have been covered already but
If you never get on base as in the case with Go Go isn’t worrying about stolen bases a moot point?
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
A lot of great base-stealers don’t get on base very much, though it’s probably a bigger problem that Gomez isn’t even starting everyday.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Jul 7, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
I just wish the kid would understand with his speed he can turn a single into a double by stealing 2nd
He does not have to swing for the lake just slap hit singles and let the legs do the rest.
the game where he scored from first on the bunt should show him what a weapon he could be if he just went with his talent and stopped trying to be Prince.
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
One of the reasons why Henderson is the all-time base stealer
He hit for a decent average, and walked a ton. Very disciplined.
Well, and he played forever
Vince Coleman, who had arguably the best SB season of all time in 1986, did it with a .301 OBP
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
That's insane
Looking at his B-R stats…
He tried stealing 121 times in 161 opportunities (singles, doubles and walks).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
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