A Short Defense of Manny Parra Staying in the Rotation
by Jordan M on Aug 10, 2010 1:46 PM CDT
Email
PrintI write about Manny Parra a lot. An unhealthy amount, in fact. He's a very interesting player, a lefty with good stuff and a track record of success in the minors.
Parra made his big league debut in 2007. He got 2 starts, and made 9 total appearances, adding up to 30 total innings. He struck out 9 batters per nine innings, and walked about 4 per 9. His FIP was 3.35, and his actual ERA was 3.76.
In 2008 Parra became a nearly full-time starter. His rates were about 8 strikeouts per 9, and 4 walks per 9. His FIP was 4.18, actual ERA 4.39.
In 2009, Parra looked to build on the success of the 2008 playoff season when he was at many times considered the #3 behind Sheets and Sabathia. His strikeouts fell to 7.5 per 9 and his walks jumped up to nearly 5 walks per 9. His FIP jumped up to 4.9. That FIP was even raised by a high home run to flyball rate, his expected FIP with a normalized home run rate would have been about 4.65. He did allow more fly balls while generating less ground balls, but actually allowed fewer line drives than in the previous season. Even though Parra had, in the majors, allowed a higher than usual BABIP (around .330), it jumped inexplicably to .360 in 2009. This resulted in an ERA of 6.36. One of these problems was some bad timing in giving up hits, he stranded about 65% of his runners on base, and the league average (and Parra's average) is around 70%.
The Brewers started the 2010 season with Parra in the bullpen. He was moved to the rotation and has started 13 games. He's responded with the best strikeout rate of his career (over 9 per 9) and has dropped his walk rate back down to about 4.3 per 9. His FIP is at 4.6, with a bad rate on home runs: his expected FIP is right at 4. The BABIP is right back up in the .360s, however, and his rates of line drives, fly balls, and ground balls are similar to last year's, and they're pretty much fine. And his ERA is 5.6.
If you're skeptical of FIP and tERA makes more sense to you, look at it this way: in the past three years, Parra's expected ERA based on his amount of line drives, fly balls, groundballs, strikeouts, and walks allowed, have been: 4.67, 4.78, and 4.67 again this year.
Something very strange is going on with Manny Parra. If someone can give me a justifiable reason why Parra is carrying the one of the highest BABIPs in history, I'm willing to listen. Though pitchers can have some influence on the amount of hits they allow on balls in play, there is no reason to expect that Manny Parra continue to carry a .360 BABIP.
I'm not trying to say that I still think Manny Parra is going to be a Cy Young candidate next year. I do think he has plenty of value, even as a cheap, high 4s, low 5-ERA pitcher to slot in the bottom of the rotation, and with a noticeable upside of a 4.2-4.4 type guy-- mainly because he has done it before.
Most importantly, I think there is no reason to remove Parra from the rotation for the rest of the year. Let's see what he can do with some more starts. The alternatives are pitchers who will not play nearly as big a role in the future Brewers as Parra. It's a combination of upside and no clear alternatives, and I hope that the staff will do the right thing and not give 10 starts to a veteran who will certainly not be a member of the starting rotation come opening day 2011.
85 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I agree with your conclusion
Give him two months to prove he isn’t beyond redemption. As to why his BABIP is high, my theory is a combination of putting his fielders to sleep with a high pitch count, and his tendency to lose the strike zone and overcompensate by throwing right down the middle.
Both are true
And something like that would make me expect a really high BABIP, like .330. But .360 is so high it’s almost outside of anything anyone’s ever seen, and if it’s the only case in the history of baseball, that makes me think something very strange is going on. I don’t have a play index subscription so I’ll have to wait for TheJay to run some queries for me. I think Parra’s one of the career leaders in baseball history in BABIP with the minimum of his 400 innings, and that’s just absurd for his stuff.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Career, requiring 400 IP, since 1950
Rk Player BAbip IP From To Age G GS CG SHO GF W L W-L% SV H R ER BB SO ERA ERA+ HR BF IBB HBP BK WP Tm BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ SH SF 2B 3B GDP SB CS PO 1 Manny Parra .346 424.1 2007 2010 24-27 98 71 0 0 8 24 29 .453 0 495 275 249 208 382 5.28 78 52 1954 9 8 4 35 MIL .291 .368 .443 .811 22 13 89 7 42 22 9 2 2 Jose Silva .334 427.1 1996 2002 22-28 154 53 2 0 32 25 28 .472 4 507 285 257 154 298 5.41 84 47 1915 16 13 7 14 TOR-PIT-CIN .297 .357 .444 .801 25 17 96 7 35 22 13 2 3 Glendon Rusch .331 1477.1 1997 2009 22-34 342 220 11 3 31 67 99 .404 4 1732 880 827 460 1088 5.04 88 191 6513 27 40 5 19 KCR-TOT-NYM-MIL-CHC-COL .294 .347 .456 .803 83 45 315 32 139 51 34 13 4 Shawn Camp .329 402.0 2004 2010 28-34 343 0 0 0 84 18 21 .462 8 458 223 200 117 290 4.48 100 45 1744 24 28 1 12 KCR-TBD-TOR .291 .348 .446 .794 10 13 96 7 62 22 7 1 5 Scott Service .328 416.1 1988 2004 21-37 338 1 0 0 101 20 22 .476 16 435 245 231 182 413 4.99 92 56 1853 28 26 1 25 PHI-MON-TOT-CIN-SFG-KCR-OAK-ARI .272 .351 .454 .805 21 25 87 18 26 31 16 5 6 Sean Bergman .328 750.1 1993 2000 23-30 196 117 5 2 28 39 47 .453 0 912 489 440 272 455 5.28 83 99 3359 23 21 4 43 DET-SDP-HOU-TOT-MIN .303 .362 .470 .832 32 22 157 25 85 96 12 0 7 Zach Duke .327 913.2 2005 2010 22-27 150 149 6 3 0 42 65 .393 0 1098 493 449 244 477 4.42 96 93 3966 12 25 8 15 PIT .304 .350 .459 .808 57 26 246 17 111 39 35 19 8 Don Wengert .327 438.2 1995 2001 25-31 160 48 2 1 45 14 32 .304 3 569 307 293 157 226 6.01 78 73 2001 13 18 0 8 OAK-TOT-KCR-ATL-PIT .316 .374 .513 .887 11 15 110 13 46 18 11 1 9 Matt Belisle .325 441.0 2003 2010 23-30 208 43 1 0 40 23 27 .460 2 508 252 229 114 322 4.67 97 56 1921 16 19 2 17 CIN-COL .290 .337 .450 .787 18 19 98 7 40 27 9 0 10 Ryan Drese .325 565.2 2001 2006 25-30 105 96 4 0 3 34 39 .466 0 673 363 334 213 301 5.31 88 49 2528 12 31 0 20 CLE-TEX-TOT-WSN .299 .365 .442 .807 16 19 141 17 61 25 28 4 11 Jason Hammel .324 507.1 2006 2010 23-27 127 78 1 0 23 25 29 .463 2 574 297 281 171 375 4.98 91 58 2235 12 19 3 24 TBD-TBR-COL .286 .345 .447 .793 21 17 116 17 38 59 11 4 12 Steve Woodard .324 667.1 1997 2003 22-28 162 94 3 0 15 32 36 .471 0 782 397 366 149 464 4.94 92 90 2898 20 31 7 20 MIL-TOT-CLE-TEX-BOS .292 .335 .474 .809 26 16 176 20 51 61 16 1 13 Chris Holt .324 736.2 1996 2001 24-29 133 112 4 1 9 28 51 .354 1 853 426 390 253 426 4.76 93 69 3236 13 32 1 20 HOU-DET .295 .355 .435 .790 31 30 155 20 91 53 36 4 14 Jerry DiPoto .324 495.1 1993 2000 25-32 390 0 0 0 183 27 24 .529 49 527 257 223 221 352 4.05 120 33 2175 37 19 5 23 CLE-NYM-COL .280 .356 .390 .747 23 29 101 4 67 43 21 2 15 Mike Parrott .323 495.0 1977 1981 22-26 119 68 14 2 27 19 39 .328 5 581 298 268 190 266 4.87 86 44 2200 31 11 3 6 BAL-SEA .297 .360 .425 .784 27 17 91 13 50 83 15 1 16 Tom Bolton .322 540.1 1987 1994 25-32 209 56 3 0 40 31 34 .477 1 614 297 274 244 336 4.56 93 46 2426 23 17 5 21 BOS-TOT-DET-BAL .289 .364 .414 .777 19 18 106 11 66 37 17 3 17 Jim Crawford .322 431.1 1973 1978 22-27 181 14 1 0 72 15 28 .349 13 477 252 211 182 276 4.40 87 27 1923 24 7 5 32 HOU-DET .284 .352 .394 .747 35 24 89 7 41 34 18 4 18 Mike Pelfrey .321 608.2 2006 2010 22-26 105 102 2 0 1 38 38 .500 1 682 322 304 231 352 4.50 93 46 2686 13 34 7 9 NYM .289 .358 .417 .775 39 18 135 15 74 38 17 9 19 Dennys Reyes .321 718.0 1997 2010 20-33 659 40 0 0 116 34 35 .493 4 715 379 335 395 640 4.20 106 60 3203 28 21 8 69 LAD-TOT-CIN-KCR-SDP-MIN-STL .263 .358 .391 .749 44 25 139 15 70 73 30 28 20 Darren Holmes .321 680.0 1990 2003 24-37 557 6 0 0 212 35 33 .515 59 709 348 321 256 581 4.25 111 63 2966 36 15 4 26 LAD-MIL-COL-NYY-ARI-TOT-ATL .269 .335 .410 .744 36 22 134 24 54 53 29 1 21 Jorge de la Rosa .320 644.2 2004 2010 23-29 168 106 0 0 18 45 43 .511 0 670 398 370 334 575 5.17 89 76 2895 18 25 5 49 MIL-TOT-KCR-COL .270 .359 .437 .795 26 28 160 13 58 53 16 5 22 Ian Snell .320 803.2 2004 2010 22-28 152 136 2 0 3 38 53 .418 0 873 458 429 372 639 4.80 90 100 3582 14 16 1 41 PIT-TOT-SEA .279 .356 .457 .813 39 24 200 28 71 64 22 1 23 Paul Quantrill .320 1255.2 1992 2005 23-36 841 64 1 1 228 68 78 .466 21 1442 601 534 336 725 3.83 118 112 5428 68 45 8 5 BOS-TOT-PHI-TOR-LAD-NYY .292 .339 .427 .767 56 49 275 29 138 95 36 9 24 Dan McGinn .320 408.2 1968 1972 24-28 210 28 4 2 64 15 30 .333 10 442 259 232 225 293 5.11 74 34 1868 24 18 2 24 CIN-MON-CHC .276 .371 .389 .760 22 3 54 12 50 16 12 5 25 Antonio Alfonseca .319 613.0 1997 2007 25-35 592 0 0 0 301 35 37 .486 129 677 296 280 250 400 4.11 104 55 2710 45 22 2 13 FLA-CHC-ATL-TEX-PHI .284 .355 .409 .764 36 18 110 12 79 55 15 2
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Thank you for tha
Not only is he first, but by a substantial margin. It’s crazy.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Hmmm...
If you move the IP down to >300 Dana Eveland moves ahead of Manny Parra (.347 vs .346)
I think no matter how thin you slice it, Manny Parra is a bad pitcher pitching in front of a bad defense.
That said, I agree that he should continue pitching in the rotation — That should be enough data to put Manny out to pasture.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 10, 2010 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
That should be enough data to put Manny out to pasture.
Yeah. Maybe we’ll get a couple more games where Manny’s handed a 10-run lead in the third inning, and then can’t get through the sixth.
SRS BSNS
I think the other reason why Parra has the all-time shittiest BABIP
Is that teams generally don’t need/give players 400-500 IP to suck so loudly.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 10, 2010 2:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Usually the pitchers with that high of a BABIP allowed
have not been productive at all. Parra has managed to be somewhat effective in his career. That makes his case all the more remarkable.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Of the guys on the list mykenk posted
Glendon Rusch was occasionally effective and Zach Duke came on like gangbusters when he debuted.
There are occasionally decent seasons by pitchers with BABIP as high as Parra’s career mark. Francisco Liriano is having one now. Maybe Parra needs to be traded to the Doug Melvin Rangers to find success, I don’t know.
It seems to me two big reasons, simplified for the sake of discussion, to keep him around are that his high BABIP will eventually fall and that his results are unique. If there is no good comparison in the past, I have a hard time just assuming his BABIP will go down. It has increased every year he has been in the majors. In other words, if he has broken the mold, why keep using it?
It will be interesting to see what happens and the Brewers have no reason at this point to stop putting him out there, but I am not optimistic about the results.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
And I don't really think of a circumstance in which
I could call a pitcher averaging more than a strikeout per inning a bad pitcher.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I can't either
but I would guess that there is more than one pitcher who has played professional baseball who had averaged more than a strikeout per inning, but had a high WHIP.
The problem is that those kind of guys don’t last very long and likely don’t get even close to seeing the likes of an MLB roster.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Because they have no history of being able to control their pitches.
But Parra does.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Parra does... just not consistently.
I agree that Parra shouldn’t be taken out of the rotation for the rest of this season… at least not unless they’ve given up on him ever being a starter with the organization.
I see the rest of the season being an extended spring training… particularly for the pitching staff. I also think that Capuano should be given more opportunities to start to see what he might have… but I’m not sure who loses starts to him (maybe Bush?).
Between Narveson, Bush, Capuano and Parra, at most only two of them should return to the rotation next season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I think there's a chance, but not a very likely one
Which is why I threw him out there as a possible person to lose starts to Cappy.
Bush will be a FA next season and at over $4M per year, is starting to get expensive… particularly since we have younger (aka cheaper) guys who pitch as well and have the potential to pitch better.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
The only way I could see Bush coming back is if Fielder isn't traded
(a.k.a. a scenario that shouldn’t occur)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
But if Prince isn't traded, and we're paying him big arby bucks
we’re going to have to save money somewhere, right?
SRS BSNS
Yeah
If Prince is back it means Melvin will have something like $10-$15 million to spend on two pitchers, even assuming one of Parra/Narveson take the fifth spot. Prince basically has to be traded, unfortunately.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
(Or <$10 million, depending on the bench situation and how low payroll goes)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Not consistently in the last few years
But in his minor league career he had an 8.6 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 (570.0 IP)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
He also lead the National League in wild pitches in '08
and he’s currently leading the NL with 13 this year.
I’m not saying that it’s a perfect proxy for lack of control, but, that said: isn’t it somewhat indicative of an inconsistency in command?
SRS BSNS
I'm not denying that he has had poor command in the majors (4.41 BB/9 isn't good)
Just that he has shown he could strike batters out without walking a ton in the past.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I dont care if he has a lot of wild pitches
His splitter belongs in the dirt, and a fair number of them will get by a couple of young catchers.
I care more that he can’t control his other stuff.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 11, 2010 8:03 AM CDT up reply actions
Right
but at this point his minor league stats really just show his potential… not necessarily what he’s going to achieve.
Due to the fact that there’s a shortage of quality starting pitching in the minors ready to join the team, the FO has no problem giving him time. He’s still under team control for the next three years, which helps too.
Eventually though, there will be younger guys who can execute at the MLB level. That’s when the Parra’s days with the organization will be numbered.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Potential is still important though.
Parra barely has two full seasons worth of innings at the major league level.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
That's because of two things...
1. He doesn’t pitch deep into games. This year he’s averaging over 96 pitches per start, but isn’t even averaging 6 innings per start.
2. He spent some time down in Nashville last season.
The frustration is because he doesn’t seem to be improving… in fact, he’s digressing in some respects.
Anyway, like I said, I don’t mind the team giving him more chances since he really isn’t keeping anyone better from having a rotation spot.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It is pretty easy to find instances where pitchers had a K/9 >9 and sucked
For instance Derrick Turnbow was 9th in MLB (100IP) in K/9 from 2006-2008 — and he was pretty much a bad pitcher in that time frame.
Also, Parra’s IP and K career numbers are very close to Carlos Villanueva.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 10, 2010 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I did know that and found it interesting
Two things though, there’s a noticeable dropoff in strikeouts for starting pitchers, and Parra has started much more than Villanueva. It also shows that Villanueva is pretty underrated these days.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Villanueva is pitching in AAA not underrated
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 11, 2010 12:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually
Manny Parra currently has the lowest ERA+ in history for pitchers with K/9 >= 9.0 and IP >= 90
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
You make some good points there, probably the case
I wonder too if maybe he’s tipping his pitches somehow. I mean, most guys won’t miss a fastball down the pipe, but…I don’t know, just a thought. Nobody ever bites on that splitter, that should be a huge out pitch.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Aug 10, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, that could be
He could be tipping his pitches. He doesn’t strike me as very disciplined at all, I wouldn’t be surprised. That’s the kind of thing that a pitching coach can help with though. Also, I never got an answer as to whether his last start was called from the dugout, or just the one before was. Maybe he does better when someone calls the game for him and he doesn’t need to worry about it.
I heard a rumor last year that Parra was tipping his pitches and was working on it
right around the time he got sent down to Nashville.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Who really knows
He’s just such an enigma. He should be better than he is, that’s for sure.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Aug 10, 2010 4:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Manny could be having the game of his life, and then he'll just leave one down the pipe out of nowhere.
I don’t want to say it’s an issue with focus, but I really don’t know. Maybe he lacks that killer instinct and has a tendency to get lazy? It really is baffling.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
That's what I was thinking.
It’s almost like he thinks that people can’t tell when he totally screws up a pitch, or he doesn’t care and thinks a couple of bad pitches here and there won’t make a difference, and he gets lazy. Sometimes he can be very good, and then somewhere between the 4th and 6th he just stops caring and his pitches turn into batting practice.
I don't think he stops caring. Do you really think he WANTS to leave a meatball over the plate?
Maybe he’s getting too comfortable?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I don't think that's necessarily the case (being lazy/doesn't care).
I think it’s more along the lines of focus and concentration. Like many other sports, at the elite level, you really need to stay focused if you want to succeed. In Parra’s case, I think he loses his focus and ends up throwing a bad pitch. And when things start to unravel, doubt starts to creep into his head which just makes things worse.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You would think that if the seven-digit paycheck doesn’t do it, maybe the 40,000 people screaming in the stands would remind you that what you’re doing is important.
Heh... Corey Hart should probably also heed that advice.
When he’s on the mound, I doubt he is thinking about his paycheck or the fans. Or maybe he is… and that’s what’s causing him to lose his focus.
Maybe he’s borderline ADD and could use some medication to help him stay focused.
I think most will agree that Parra has the skills to be a quality MLB starter… but doesn’t seem to be able to execute on a consistent basis.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Aug 10, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It could be a lot of things
But you hear all the time about having that mentality out there. Gallardo is the perfect example of the counter-case to Manny Parra. Probably doesn’t have as good as stuff as Manny, but keeps himself from getting rattled and makes his pitches when he needs to.
Not that Yo’s stuff isn’t great, it is, but it also comes down to a line of actually knowing how to pitch. Dave Bush knows how to pitch, but he doesn’t have the arm to be a great pitcher. Manny has the arm to be a great pitcher, but he’s not all together up there I don’t think. Who knows, maybe one day it’ll just click.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Aug 10, 2010 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions
Not a fan of the "mental problem" stuff with Manny
Not sure how to really articulate this viewpoint, and won’t argue with those who do think its a mental issue. I just think its used as a crutch too often and lazy of fans (and JS beat writers) to constantly harp on it.
Once the idea that his struggles were all mental started people started to project that on him and play armchair pyschologist based on his facial expressions they see on TV. I’m probably most annoyed just reading Rambling Al on the topic and not anyone here, it just bothers me overall.
Get a ife broseph
And if he actually does have some type of mental problem, talking about it that way certainly wouldn't be helping matters.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
by tcyoung on Aug 10, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So it's the fans fault that he sucks because they keep talking about Parra's not mentally tough?
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 10, 2010 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd agree with you...
… if someone else had an alternate explanation that makes any sense. I don’t believe he’s been tipping his pitches for 2 years.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 10, 2010 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Amend that to "very good starter"
He’s never had a full workload or been a starter over a full year (outside of 2008)
IP by year:
2002 – 49
2003 – 138
2004 – 73
2005 – 91
2006 – 86
2007 – 132
2008 – 166
Then…big dropoff in production.
Opponents have a .601 OPS in the 1st inning this year, a .680 OPS the 2nd inning and a 1.086 OPS in the 3rd inning (when he sees guys for the second time). He other awful inning is the 6th. Does his mental problem start to show itself the 2nd time around the lineup, or does he lack the stuff and stamina to properly locate his pitches once he is fatigued and facing guys for the 2nd or 3rd time?
Just kind of throwing this out there, I realize the sample sizes this year are pretty small. I think you should question, based on his workload, if he was ever going to be a full time starter. It makes more sense to me than some sort of mental issues that shows itself sometimes but not others.
Get a ife broseph
What strikes me is how bad the Brewers are in general the 2nd and 3rd time through the order
Parra has been getting worse his second time through the order each season (though his BABIP actually went down in that situation from 2007 to 2008) and has always been bad the third time through.
However, the Brewers starters’ as a group have been in the bottom half of the NL the 2nd time through this season (click the split name to see breakdown by team) and are dead last the third time through. Of course, it only takes a couple bad pitchers to torpedo the whole teams’ numbers in that split. Still, the Brewers’ rotation was last the 2nd and the 3rd time through the order in 2009. They were second best in the league 2nd time through in 2008, fell below average 3rd time through, and then, intriguingly, were best 4+ (thank you CC, Benny…and Soup). Anyway, the rotation as a whole just seems to hit a wall when hitters come up a third time above and beyond what other NL teams do. The last time they were even average in that small split was 2006.
I assume it is a mixture of the pitchers involved (skill, rate of fatigue, etc.), coaching, and pitch-calling, but I won’t venture a guess at the impact of each.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Parra link
This one may work better.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Thanks for the stats
It is interesting. Could it simply be the personnel?
Common thread in each season from 2007-2010:
Bush
Gallardo
Parra
Suppan
Villanueva
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I've written explaining my dislike for that exact viewpoint in the past
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Meh.
Sometimes people are their own worst enemies. It’s true for athletes, writers, welders and musicians and all manner of other folks. If you don’t believe you can do a thing you generally won’t. You can dislike that explanation but it happens all the time. I don’t see why it’s wrong to suspect that Parra, like the rest of humanity, might be falling prey to his own doubt. It’s not like it makes him a bad person or that he’s suffering from a mental illness. It makes him human.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 10, 2010 9:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It is speculation on something that you know nothing about
(that being Manny Parra’s mental state)
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Aug 10, 2010 10:36 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Of course it is.
But I’m not sure it’s any more speculative than your theory that he was fine with 166 innings but that somehow his arm magically became ineffective once he hit 167. You seem to regard it as some sort of insult, and it’s not. It happens to everyone.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 11, 2010 6:32 AM CDT up reply actions
Not my argument at all
I was simply pointing out he has 1 full season of being a successful starter in his 8 years as a pro (and was pretty bad the end of the 2008 season).
Combine his lack of a track record as a full season starter with his current issues with getting through the lineup a 2nd or 3rd time, and I think its much more likely he isn’t a starting pitcher and not some mental problem that manifests itself sometimes during games.
Get a ife broseph
I don't want to get into a meta-argument about argument...
… but if your point wasn’t the inning count, why did you recite his inning counts? You could have much more easilly said “he has 1 full season of being a successful starter in 8 years as a pro” and left it at that.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 11, 2010 8:12 AM CDT up reply actions
I figured more data was better than less data and posted the inning counts to back up my thought that he doesn’t have a track record of success as a full season starter.
The mistake was using the word “workload” which implies that he pitched too many innings, I could have been more clear with that.
Get a ife broseph
Fair enough.
Sorry I misunderstood.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 11, 2010 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Oh, I think it's very possible
But I think he gets singled out for it. I don’t know why just about every player that struggles shouldn’t be subject to the same scrutiny. I have no idea about Parra’s concentration. It seems to me like it’s a convenient excuse for his struggles in something he doesn’t have complete control over, and continued repeating of it by the likes of Rambling Al has made it a very common idea.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I don't read Rambling Al...
… and I don’t get my ideas from him. If it wasn’t for people bitching about him on this site and the increasingly occasional links to him in the Mug, I wouldn’t even know who the hell he is. This gets mentioned with Parra because he’s got exceptional physical talent. When a person with exceptional physical talent performs at or below the level of a much less talented person (which you appear to agree is the case here) the explanation is frequently the stuff going on between his ears. Athletes go through stretches like this, particularly in baseball, but they rarely last for the better part of 2 years, as has been the case with Parra. It’s not that Parra hasn’t been effective in stretches during those 2 years, but that he seems to have no ability to sustain that effectiveness.
Honestly, I’m not sure why this is such a controversial idea, or why it is that it’s taken so personally by Parra’s defenders.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 11, 2010 6:46 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree.
What TSSC’s suggesting is far, far afield from that earlier post where people were actually trying to diagnose Parra with a mental illness.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Aug 11, 2010 6:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed as well.
Whenever I get the opportunity to talk to guys who played professionally, I always ask them about the mental aspect of the game — and there are scores of players that have never reached their potential that their talent would allow, because of “mental issues”. Which could consist of:
1.) Clinical things — Depression, anxiety, etc.
2.) Immaturity
3.) Lack of Focus
4.) Bad Baseball IQ
5.) Lack of Preparation before a game.
and probably more….
I find it more reasonable and logical that Parra’s bad results may stem from something from the above list, rather than to try and rationalize his results statistically.
I also did a search on BREF for pitchers with IP>100, WHIP>1.6, and K/9>8. There have been 9 guys in the history of baseball that fall into this group, eight of them, pitched between 100-200 innings, Parra has thrown 400+.
Here are my conclusions about Parra based on this article and my own crappy research.
1.) The reason why Parra is the leader in a lot of these BREF queries is because the Brewers have given Parra more IP than teams have historically allotted to a pitcher that has been as bad as Parra. That is to say, there is nothing unique or special about Parra — but the opportunity he has gotten by the Brewers is in fact somewhat historical.
2.) Some people are over-valuing the k/9 stat. I think in general, when our brains process k/9 when comparing pitchers, we sort of assume that all the innings are the same, and pitcher X might have gotten more strikeouts in his 1-2-3 inning than pitcher Y did in his 1-2-3 inning — therefore pitcher X is probably more likely to be a dominant pitcher. On the surface I think this is a fair and easy way to compare pitchers… However, once a pitcher starts putting up consistently high WHIP numbers, I think the K/9 stat starts getting noisy. I think if a pitcher faces more batters in an inning, the chances of getting at least one K per inning probably rises. Turnbow was a great example of this — no matter how bad he got for the Brewers in his last 2 full season, he was still able to get his K’s — to the tune of ~11 per 9 innings.
3.) If you look at Parra’s numbers this year, his starter numbers are really similar to his numbers last year, however his reliever numbers are pretty decent. Therefore, in a WWF style face-to-heel change, I want to reverse my position that keeping Parra in the rotation is a defensible idea.
Parra is miscast as a starter, and I would rather see him getting work as a reliever where he could help the Brewers in 2011. I am done watching him use up ~100 pitches in 5IP like he did last night, and burdening our BP. I think if he continues to start, his value will drop, and he will be not long for MLB.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 11, 2010 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think he'll still get a chance in MLB... at least until his physical skills start to deteriorate.
If he doesn’t improve in whatever role he’s given by the Brewers, he’ll be gone. At that point, I could see multiple teams going after him (the fact that Vargas, Turnbow and Gagne all had chances after they left the Brewers is a testament to that).
Maybe someone like Dave Duncan can turn him around or maybe you’re right that he’d succeed as a reliever rather than a starter. In either case, I can see other teams giving him a chance if the Brewers give up on him.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Given that he is a LHP
I think that there is no question other teams will give him a shot. But at the end of the day, no one wants to be Claudio Vargas.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 11, 2010 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I bet Looper would think it over though...
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 11, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I fully agree with you last paragraph
I also agree that any of the 5 points you raise happen to lots of MLB players, my issue would be that you can’t prove that any of them are the reason Parra is struggling. And I know, you can’t prove anything with the stats either. Its great that he’s as frustrating to analyze as he is to watch.
Appreciate reading FtJ, TSSC and other posters that have done a good job of explaining it in ways other than “Parra is lazy, a dumbass and needs to see a psychologist.” It has softened my original stance that it should never be brought up.
Get a ife broseph
The mental aspect of the game.
If you ever talk to a MLB player or someone that played for a long time in the minors, ask them “Did you know any talented players that didn’t have the mental toughness to make it in MLB” — and they will reply that there were plenty of players they crossed paths with.
I think sometimes we oversimplify “mental toughness” in the same way we suggest that the anorexic “eat a cheeseburger”.
It is entirely intangible — and we really have no concrete way of knowing why Parra’s results are the way that they are, but I think the Brewers certainly have given him a fair shake.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 11, 2010 10:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Some people are over-valuing the k/9 stat. … I think if a pitcher faces more batters in an inning, the chances of getting at least one K per inning probably rises. Turnbow was a great example of this — no matter how bad he got for the Brewers in his last 2 full season, he was still able to get his K’s — to the tune of ~11 per 9 innings.
Carlos Villanueva is also a very good example. Take his last appearance before he was shuttled to Nashville: 1 IP, 8 batters faced, 4 hits, 1 walk, 2 homers, 5 ER allowed … but two strikeouts. Great K/9, awful results.
SRS BSNS
you cant give him too much time
with the upcoming prospects like odorizzi and heckathorn coming up in a couple of years. but who knows? sandy koufax and nolan ryan took a while to put up ace-like numbers
by ilikeburritos on Aug 10, 2010 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions
As did Ben Sheets if we all can remember that far back
Which I think is why the Brewers are giving Parra the time he needs. Difference is Sheets gradually kept getting better as opposed to worse, which works against Parra.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Aug 10, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
parra needs to be economical with his pitches. he could use some tips from roy halladay. also, maybe he should stick with fastball&curveball until the 4th and then use splitter or use splitter for the 1st 4 innings until using the curveball.
by ilikeburritos on Aug 10, 2010 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Hopefully not young Roy Halladay
Who had a 5.76 ERA and worse K/9 and BB/K over his first couple hundred innings.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I agreed with you in 2009.
And I guess I still do, mostly because I don’t see a viable alternative.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 10, 2010 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
The solution for parra:
concentrate one batter at a time, forget about any HRs or base hits or walks that occurred a batter before, dont leave the ball up in the zone, and be aggressive in the strike zone
he's already pitching like the robo-looper!
cue graphic…
by Capt Science on Aug 10, 2010 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm still a Manny fan.
He’s still got great stuff when he’s able to stay focused. He may need a psychological trainer, not a pitching coach. I’d love to see such a person in a uniform, jog out to the mound to give counsel. Nice alternative to Peterson. ;-)
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 10, 2010 5:37 PM CDT reply actions
Sorry for interrupting the graphic...
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 10, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Brew Crew Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.12.2012 at 7:02 PM CST)
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Photo: Padres fan regrets letting mother capture moment with Trevor Hoffman
- Marlins agree to unretire No. 5 for Logan Morrison, who will honor his father’s favorite player
- Weatherman Derek Holland does Dallas TV
- Ask Alex: Will Julio Teheran or Matt Moore win rookie of the year?
- Ku Klux Klan, umpires and bowling: Why the minor leagues tossed out Jim Evans academy
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
