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A Wrapup for the Brewers' 2010 Draft

So the signing deadline has passed with the Brewers reaching an agreement with 13 of their first 14 picks in the 2010 draft, and 35 of 50 overall. That's 70% of total picks signed, up from 60.3% (32 of 53) last year. I'm not a draft expert by any stretch of the imagination, but like I did last year, I figured I'd take a moment today to provide a brief overview of what the Brewers have added to the farm system, position-by-position.

Thanks to the folks at Brewerfan.net for doing a great job this draft season keeping us updated on signings and maintaining this list of signed and unsigned players, which was a huge help in putting this post together.

Join me after the jump to read more.

Star-divide

Pitching

The Brewers made pitching a clear priority, drafting 28 pitchers (56% of picks), and signing 19 of them. Last year, they only drafted one high school pitcher before the 23rd round (Brooks Hall). This year, they took three high schoolers relatively early, but didn't have much luck signing them:

Dylan Covey (R), 1st round
Joel Pierce (R), 7th round
Chris Bates (L), 15th round
Daniel Gibson (L), 26th round
Conor Fisk (R), 34th round
R.J. Johnson (R), 36th round
Michael Schaub (R), 38th round
Lucas Moran (R), 45th round

Nearly all of the new Brewer pitchers came via college, where the organization drafted 17 players and signed 15:

Jimmy Nelson (R), 2nd round
Tyler Thornburg (R), 3rd round
Matt Miller (R), 5th round
Austin Ross (R), 8th round
Greg Holle (R), 11th round
Brian Garman (L), 17th round
Thomas Keeling (L), 18th round
Kevin Shackelford (R), 21st round
Ryan Bernal (R), 23rd round
Alex Jones (R), 27th round
Dane Amedee (L), 28th round
Daniel Britt (R), 29th round
Eric Marzec (R), 30th round
William Kankel (L), 33rd round
Seth Harvey (R), 37th round
Scott Matyas (R), 40th round
Marques Kyles (L), 48th round

The Brewers picked three pitchers out of community college, signing just one:

Michael White (R), 13th round
Andrew Morris (R), 16th round
Steven Okert (L), 43rd round

For whatever it's worth, the Brewers drafted 20 right handed pitchers (signing 15) and eight lefties (signing four).

Here's the quick version, with last year's numbers for comparison:

Pitchers

Year # Drafted % # Signed % HS Signed 4Yr Signed CC Signed
2010 28 56% 19 68% 8 3 17 15 3 1
2009 25 47% 14 56% 7 1 18 13 n/a* n/a*

* - Last year I counted JUCO players as college players.

Outfielders

While pitching was clearly a top priority in this year's draft, finding help in the outfield was not. The Brewers didn't select their first outfielder until the 12th round, and only picked two before the 39th. They drafted two high schoolers, and didn't sign either:

Rowan Wick, 19th round
Alex Simone, 49th round

The Brewers' top outfielder and three other signees came from the five collegiate outfielders:

John Bivens, 12th round
Derrick Shaw, 40th round
Johnny Dishon, 41st round
T.J. Mittelstaedt, 44th round
Chad Jones, 50th round

And they also signed one from a community college:

Kenny Allison, 39th round

Here's the quick version again:

Outfielders

Year # Drafted % # Signed % HS Signed 4Yr Signed CC Signed
2010 8 16% 5 63% 2 0 5 4 1 1
2009 12 23% 9 75% 3 2 9 7 n/a* n/a*

* - Last year I counted JUCO players as college players.

Infielders:

The Brewers picked up a fair amount of infield depth in this draft, and did so in an interesting way. First of all, they didn't select a single high school or community college player. Second, they signed each and every one of the eight collegiate players they selected:

Hunter Morris (1B), 4th round
Cody Hawn (3B), 6th round
Yadiel Rivera (SS), 9th round
Mike Walker (3B), 14th round
Shea Vucinich (SS), 20th round
Greg Hopkins (3B), 24th round
Nick Shaw (SS), 25th round
Jason Rogers (1B), 32nd round

Here's the positional breakdown for those players:

Three shortstops
Three third basemen
Two first basemen
No second basemen

Here's the quick version again:

Infielders

Year # Drafted % # Signed % HS Signed 4Yr Signed CC Signed
2010 8 16% 8 100% 0 0 8 8 0 0
2009 11 21% 7 64% 4 1 7 6 n/a* n/a*

* - Last year I counted JUCO players as college players.

And the positional breakdown, by year:

Year 2009 2010
1B 1 2
Signed 1 2
2B 4 0
Signed 3 0
3B 2 3
Signed 1 3
SS 4 3
Signed 2 3

Catchers

The Brewers drafted six catchers (12% of picks) and signed three of them. In 2009, all five were high schoolers, but this year there was an even split, with three high schoolers:

Kevin Berard, 22nd round
TC Mark, 35th round
Derek Goodwin, 46th round

And the highest drafted catcher (and two others) were college players:

Rafael Neda, 10th round
Mike Melillo, 31st round
Billy Schroeder, 47th round

Again, a quick breakdown:

Catchers

Year # Drafted % # Signed % HS Signed 4Yr Signed CC Signed
2010 6 12% 3 50% 3 1 3 2 0 0
2009 5 9% 2 40% 5 2 0 0 n/a* n/a*

* - Last year I counted JUCO players as college players.

Conclusions

Pitching was a significant priority this year. Last year at this time I complained that the Brewer organization, with a significant lack of pitching depth, didn't do enough to address the situation in the early rounds. This year they appear to have made up for it in both quantity (drafting three more pitchers despite having three fewer picks, and signing five more) and quality (using 12 of their first 20 and five of their first seven picks).

Signing high school players was a significant challenge. The Brewers signed 29 of the 33 collegiate players they drafted, but failed to reach an agreement with nine of the 13 high schoolers they selected, including higher picks like Dylan Covey, Chris Bates and Rowan Wick. Covey's situation was unique to say the least, but even without him the significant majority of high school picks went unsigned.

The organization must be confident in some of the outfielders they have in the lower levels. Even if some of the players at other positions end up moved to the outfield, the Brewers didn't even sign enough drafted outfielders to fill three spots each in Arizona and Helena. Certainly some of the lower picks could surprise, but the fact that the Brewers only signed one outfielder drafted before the 39th round is interesting.

So, what do you think? What are you taking away from this draft?

Comment 30 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Nice summary

Tough to get too excited about a draft in which their top signed picks were 64th and 96th overall. I could be wrong, but didn’t seem to be any big over-slot guys to really get excited about either.

Not really worried about the OF. They are seemingly set for a few years at the MLB level with really no room for anyone. Plus they have Khris and Kentrail Davis, Schafer, Richardson, Komatsu, Gindl and Salome (kidding) in the system, plus 2 potential elite bats in Lawrie and Gamel who could be moved there if needed — there is good depth there. Maybe with all the college pitching the lower level teams will be more successful, but that doesn’t really help out the major league team unless someone really surprises.

Having zero comp picks and not getting their 1st round pick to sign really makes this draft pretty poor — but that was mostly out of their control.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 17, 2010 3:28 PM CDT reply actions  

I don't think it was that bad of a draft

It sucks to not get Covey, but that pick can’t really be evaluated until we see what the 15th pick nets us next year . I don’t know anything about any of these prospects other than what bloop scouting reports tell me, but picks like Thornburg and Morris seem like pretty good value for where they were drafted. I also really like Rafael Neda, for no intelligible reason.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 17, 2010 4:10 PM CDT reply actions  

I should clarify

I didn’t mean to say this is a really a “bad draft” because its impossible to tell until these guys have been in the system a few years.

I meant that in the context that there are almost no highly rated guys entering the system this year. I’m much less excited following this draft than I was in past years, but that (obviously) doesn’t mean they can’t get solid players from this draft or turn out to be better than past drafts.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 17, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm moderately excited about the draft because of the quantity of pitching

And even more so for next year now with the additional pick. Maybe I’m optimistic, but something’s going to stick.

by nullacct on Aug 17, 2010 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'll second this.

I tend to like the philosophy of improvement via volume: Just based on the fact that they signed 20 pitchers, they’re bound to get a nice surprise or two.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 17, 2010 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions  

Trying not to be a pessimist, but can't help it.

I guess I don’t care about any players drafted past the 20th round who didn’t get significant bonuses, which would include 10 of the 20 pitchers. I’m sure there are a couple exceptions, but mostly those guys are at best, organizational filler.

Perhaps I am overlooking the 4 pitchers taken in the top 10 rounds and Pierce/White who may have fallen due to college commitments. If one of those guys can turn out to be a gem everything looks a whole lot better.

The issue with the whole Brewer’s system seems to be that there isn’t anyone who necessarily projects and has the “stuff” (based on scouting reports) to be a #1 or #2 starter. I was really hoping Covey could have been that guy. Apparently next year’s draft is loaded, so not a bad year to have 2 first round picks.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 17, 2010 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Very few pitching prospects project to be a #1/#2

In the minors right now there’s probably just what, Teheran and Perez?

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 17, 2010 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good point

If you’re not including Hellickson, you could probably throw in Shelby Miller, Tyler Matzek, Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman as guys who fit that mold, plus a few pitchers from the 2010 draft. That’s off the top of my head, I don’t know all of the systems well enough but do know the Brewers.

I do get your point, its not like every system has 4 or 5 guys who fit that mold, I just wish the Brewers had one.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 17, 2010 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Also

The Brewers spent less than $2 million on the entire draft, not getting any impact players by spending such little money wouldn’t be entirely shocking.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 17, 2010 6:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

I also agree

I think we could find a couple gems in this one, and so far, most of the top players drafted are off to great starts. Given it’s rookie ball with a bunch of college players, but so far nobody seems really overmatched.

Next year will definitely be more telling of what we have, but I got a better feeling about the pitchers this year. Just a guess, but I’d imagine Brewers will be a little more aggressive with their pick from this season next year (12 maybe?) and probably going for a safer pick at 15 since if they don’t sign him, it’s gone. So, hopefully we get lucky.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Aug 17, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions  

Its the spaghetti method

You throw enough of it at a wall and some of it is going to stick.

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 18, 2010 7:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

I hope not signing Covey won't come back to bite the Brewers in the future

But supposing that Peralta, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, and hopefully Arnett will turn out well, the Brewers probably won’t regret not signing Covey. All we can do is see how the 4 I mentioned will turn out because they’re some of the top prospects in the lower minor leagues(i guess except Peralta because he’s in AA)

by ilikeburritos on Aug 17, 2010 4:38 PM CDT reply actions  

You can probably throw Rivas and Scarpetta in there too

Rivas is not gonna project to be a #1 or #2, but could be a very solid back end of the rotation guy. Scarpetta has really turned it on as of late, seems like it took him some adjusting but he’s been great since about mid-June.

Just don’t know what to think of Arnett, he’s really given no one any reason to be excited about his future.

Peralta seems to be the closest of those guys though, seems to be inducing grounders better but has sacrificed strikeout numbers. It’ll be interesting to see.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Aug 17, 2010 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

There's something wrong with Arnett's mechanics

If he uses some of his DL time in fixing his mechanics, then he could at least be a decent prospect. I hope he turns out well because at 6’5 with a sidearm delivery, he could turn out to be a intimidating pitcher, especially since he can throw his fastballs up to 97mph(when his mechanics are correct). I do agree that Rivas and Scarpetta are good pitching prospects, though.

by ilikeburritos on Aug 17, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Why bother drafting 1Bmen?

unless they absolutely mash, what’s the point? On an NL team, that’s already as far shifted down the defensive spectrum as you can get. I’d assume that someone else will wind up not being defensively good enough for their position and will filter over to playing first. So, why bother drafting anyone as a 1B unless they’re fielderific?

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 17, 2010 4:43 PM CDT reply actions  

Ted Thompson philosophy: best player available

Or could be that the Brewers just don’t see anyone else fitting in well other than Gamel. In Hawn’s defense, he was drafted as a 3B.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Aug 17, 2010 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

that philosophy is kinda stupid though

"Do not mess around when it's my head. That is personal." -Carlos Gomez

by JAMOOL on Aug 17, 2010 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah

The draft is supposed to be building for the future. What’s the point of building for the future if the club not addressing its needs?

by ilikeburritos on Aug 17, 2010 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

It seems a bit stupid for football, but not baseball

In baseball you don’t draft for an immediate needs. How can you possibly predict what your needs will be in 3-4 years time? Prince is a free agent after 2011, likely to be traded this offseason, with little to no 1B prospects in the minors other than Gamel tinkering there.

Not exactly like we were reaching for Morris either, we took 3 pitchers in the first 3 rounds, which is our immediate as well as future need, then decided to take the best hitter available at that spot, which happened to be a 1B who can also play OF. Don’t know where you go wrong.

"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck

by GormanBraun28 on Aug 17, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

I agree with not drafting 1B unless they are ridiculous,

but if he can play OF as well, his placement at 1st may have had something to do with his team being stocked with good defenders.

by Braunstalker on Aug 17, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

agreed

if he CAN play other positions well, but just played a majority of the time at 1B, I can see it. but if brewers scouts just assumed he could play center field because he was in the box score there one day….

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 17, 2010 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

That I do agree with, should have made it clearer

Still I think teams generally know if they’ll need better arms or better bats in 3-4 years time, I can see the Crew passing on, say, a great 2B prospect if there’s a similar (but slightly worse) SP prospect

"Do not mess around when it's my head. That is personal." -Carlos Gomez

by JAMOOL on Aug 17, 2010 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions  

But also,

having a guy who can rake, even if his position is blocked in the majors, does not make him a waste of a prospect. Matt LaPorta was a guy who was drafted and fast-tracked even though he was blocked at every position he could play. He eventually made a huge impact on the team as a trade piece.

by OlyKnows on Aug 17, 2010 9:40 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

best player available

should be total worth, not just offensive addition.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 17, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Future major leaguers, based on names alone:

R.J. Johnson
Lucas Moran
Tyler Thornburg
Matt Miller
Kevin Shackelford
Johnny Dishon
Hunter Morris
Yadiel Rivera
Jason Rogers
Derek Goodwin
Billy Schroeder

all would look good on a baseball card.

"Do not mess around when it's my head. That is personal." -Carlos Gomez

by JAMOOL on Aug 17, 2010 4:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Johnny Dishon

is my hands down favorite name. Still, no Zealous Wheeler, though.

by Braunstalker on Aug 17, 2010 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions  

I also see Scooter making the majors

Hoping he drops his last name Ichiro-style, though

"Do not mess around when it's my head. That is personal." -Carlos Gomez

by JAMOOL on Aug 17, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

And he is a 3TO player

as far as I can tell from his minimal LSU bench stats.

by Braunstalker on Aug 17, 2010 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

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