Brewers 3, Cardinals 2
W: Dave Bush (6-10)
L: Jaime Garcia (10-6)
SV: John Axford (18)
HR: Casey McGehee (19), Albert Pujols (31)
MVP: Dave Bush (+.236)
LVP: Prince Fielder (-.121)
Win Expectancy Graph
SBNation Coverage
Hey, look at that! Dave Bush actually had a pretty good start tonight. Bushy allowed the Cardinals only one run over six innings on a solo home run by Albert Pujols. Bush was followed by, who else, Kameron Loe. Low was able to pitch a clean seventh inning, but wasn't as lucky in the eighth. He allowed two of the first three batters to reach, so John Axford had to be called in for another multi-inning save. The Ax allowed one of Loe's baserunners to score in the eighth on a wild pitch, but was able to retire Matt Holliday on a groundout to end the threat. He retired the side in order in the ninth for his 18th save.
Most of the offense today came from Casey McGehee, who had three hits including a two-run homer. All three of the Brewers runs were unearned, thanks to an error by Cardinals 3B, and former Brewer, Felipe Lopez.
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Lately he's been carrying this power-laden team
more times than he should. Fielder, Braun and Weeks were USELESS with bats in their hands tonight. If you can’t get up for a game with the Cards, what will it take?
And, sorry, Bush was outstanding (for Bush and any other mid-level starter) tonight. The sarcasm in the first sentences was misplaced, imo. Cut the guy some slack will ya…
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 17, 2010 11:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Beating the Cardinals is like beating the bully at school
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
by Michael M on Aug 17, 2010 10:36 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Bush was pulled after 91 pitches due to blister
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
As I recall
Bush left a game on June 1 with a blister on his middle finger. Sounds like his index finger this time. I’m not sure I remember a pitcher with so many blister problems.
by Hangwith'em Rach on Aug 17, 2010 10:51 PM CDT up reply actions
If I recall correctly, Sheets dealt with them and I feel like there's someone else I'm missing...
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Joe Winkelsas, but he never admitted it
and hubris costs us a potential Cy Young
by dickie_thon on Aug 17, 2010 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Sheets was always dealing with blisters
and staph infections
"The Milwaukee Brewers' line score is starting to resemble an international phone number" - Pittsburgh Pirates Radio during 20-0 shutout - 4-22-10
Rec'd
but that’s a very low-rez rasterized book.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Ax has looked shakey a lot lately
But I wonder how much of that is because this is the second time around the league? Teams are starting to get a book on him.
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
With all the video
and other information available, I would think teams would have a “book” on a pitcher after a few appearances.
he's probably getting tired
he’s been pitching a lot lately
by ilikeburritos on Aug 18, 2010 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Hoffman isn't really up for the challenge though
so who? McClendon?
I was actually half-expecting them to pull Ax after that 8th inning though, regardless of who they had fill in.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I think he was kinda removed from the game
mr sarcastic
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions
if Axford shows signs of fatigue
then Braddock can share the closer’s spot with him
by ilikeburritos on Aug 18, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Depends on "shakey"
He’s been allowing hits most of his innings since he was called up. For a closer, the only important run is the run that ties the game, but that doesn’t mean Axford hasn’t been allowing his fair share of baserunners all along. Of course, averaging well over 1 K per inning will compensate for that quite nicely and his K rate has been fine lately. I don’t see much more shakiness lately.
I was speaking more of his 3-5 balls in the dirt
which seems higher than normal for him. Sure, you want to put a few down there but not that many (or so I’d think)
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions
What was the book on the batters?
If they’re particularly susceptible to the ball in the dirt, I wouldn’t fault him for putting the ball there. It certainly does lend some credence to the point of being shakier than usual, especially from a fatigue perspective.
It does feel sort of shakey for whatever reason
but his WHIP is 1.23, which is fine, and the K’s and ability to get ground balls (51% of batted balls) probably cover up any deficiencies pretty well. If he cut down the walks, I think he profiles as an elite closer
He's keeping Lucroy loose with that curveball though
Looked like the wild pitch that plated a run dropped about 5 feet in front of the plate.
A recent MLB.com highlight video (on At Bat)
had McGehee’s name spelled McGahee.
you’d think by now they’d have it down.
P.S. I must again argue that homeruns should count as earned runs, regardless of the circumstances.
not all the runs driven in by the HR, mind you, but the homerun itself.
Inning should be over at that point
Can’t say same outcome would have occurred in a new inning.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I was about to type the same thing
In my opinion, what Pags really should be arguing is for a different measure of “earned run” entirely and I imagine several already exist. Something related to, though not solely based on, runs allowed with RISP like the Runs Allowed Per Opportunity. RApO would be a rather unfortunate acronym so how about RAO?
I'm not arguing for runs alllowed with RISP
I know TheJay doesn’t like my other requirement that pitchers be able to field their position. But whatever, I’d take some revision of the rules. Kinda like healthcare reform – I’ll take it one step at a time rather than not at all
http://www.brewcrewball.com/2008/6/29/561159/game-thread-81-brewers-44#7056613
P.S. sure – give it another acronym so as to not cause problems with the established stats and databases, but have this become the new form that people use to casually evaluate a pitcher’s performance. Yeah, yeah, FIP is probably better, but this is a bit more intuitive to the “casual”
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions
It's kind of an overall, "pitcher responsibility" statistic
If it’s going to be so inclusive to include errors, it might need to include runs produced by the pitcher at the plate. Otherwise it’s a bit like a combination between pitcher WAR and pitcher defensive WAR.
I could probably get behind that
except for pitchers probably need about 5-6 seasons of play before they get enough fielding opportunities for WAR to be stable for defensive purposes. but yeah, I could get behind just going with an all-inclusive WAR stat (incl. batting, as you point out).
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions
you can't say that he wouldn't have given up 10x as many runs in the next inning either
I think you should go off what you do see.
Sure, pitching out of the stretch and the windup are different animals, and he might be fatigued by not being able to ride the pine for 10 minutes as his team bats.
But I think it’s irresponsible for ERA to not consider a homerun as an earned run. I see it as a slippery slope (even though the ERA rule is firmly established). I see this as an excuse to “not count” runs given up when the pitcher has sat on the bench too long between innings (big rally by your team), too short between innings (3 up 3 down), has a PC of <10 or >100, or when the breeze is above 10MPH.
I’d say sure, give him the benefit of the doubt and virtually clear the bases if he’s got 2 outs plus there was an error that should have resulted in an out. But don’t discount runners that he let on AFTER 2 outs.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions
You know how to fix that?
Stop letting ERA be “the stat” that people use to judge pitchers.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
true
but casual fans need a quick, intuitive way to address pitcher performance. I don’t know that (x)FIP or DIPS are such intuitive and accessible stats.
(see also above)
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
For Casual Fans
come up with a translation system that converts xFIP or any other D.I.P. into a 0-10 scale, called the Pitching-Good-O-Meter. No need to worry about how it’s calculated, just another stat they can randomly toss around to pretend they know what’s going on.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Just go with the facts...
If the error wasn’t committed, the pitcher wouldn’t have faced any additional batters that inning, thus any runs that occur afterwards are all unearned.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Armando Galarraga
So if Galarraga gives up a home run after Jim Joyce blows the perfect game with 2 outs in the 9th, he should be charged an earned run? Penalized? Even though the game should have been over? Or do we now put exceptions in to this new rule.
I've spent most of my life playing softball, the rest of it I have just wasted....
by SoftballMVP on Aug 18, 2010 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions
good point that you bring up
Other than the fact that this run would be earned by the current rule (it’s not an “error”), you bring up a good point. If it was a similar situation and a fielder had committed an error in that situation….
you COULD say that if the game would be over (ie, non-tie situation in what should be the final inning), the book on him is closed. Or you could just not make exceptions. I think either way I’d probably be okay with it, but I guess I’d prefer if there were just no exceptions.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions
"I guess I’d prefer if there were just no exceptions."
See: ERA, current rule.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
right
mental error on my part. That wasn’t an error in the books, but if an error had occurred at that point, which you realized.
I've spent most of my life playing softball, the rest of it I have just wasted....
by SoftballMVP on Aug 18, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
It is not an excuse, it simply does not count runs scored after the inning should have been over
Your other situations are irrelevant.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Also, by that logic why not just use runs allowed?
Why should the pitcher get credit for any error? Just go with what you do see, and you saw the run score. He could’ve struck out the hitter or otherwise got out of the inning without errors.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Exception:
What about the “In the park home run” that was scored as a double and the runner scored on the error.
No amount of strikeouts could have prevented that.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 18, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Hm?
I’m not sure what you are getting at. If you mean the batter hit a double and scored on the play because of an error, the pitcher could have struck out the batter and then it is not an issue. Or to zoom out even more, he could (should) have gotten the batter to hit it at someone. Either way, it is his fault for allowing the batter to put it in play safely.
After all, that is the point here, no? As I understand it, PagsBrewCrew wants pitchers to be responsible for all runs scored on their watch, unless they are the result of a fielder’s mistake. However, if that mistake prolongs an inning, pitchers are on their own except for the players currently at bat or on base. That undermines the point of excluding runs scoring as a result of a fielder’s mistake. After all, the pitcher would not face subsequent batters in that inning if not for that fielder’s mistake. If those subsequent runs are earned, why not the runs that scored on the error(s)?
I think this stems from finding flaws and distortions that aren’t there by using the rule incorrectly. The point is not to project what would happen in future innings or excuse the pitcher for giving up a home run, it is to reconstruct the inning as if there were no errors. If there were no mistakes, then batters that scored after the inning should have ended would never have had the opportunity to score in that inning. What happens in past innings has no impact on the earned/unearned run calculation for that inning or for future innings. Likewise, deciding whether or not to rule a run earned or unearned does not involve how long a pitcher sits between innings, pitch count, or how strong the wind is. You can’t control what excuses people will make for a pitcher or how they use statistics, but claiming the calculation of earned runs is a slippery slope that excuses pitchers for pitch count, etc., ignores the actual rule.
If PagsBrewCrew wants a simple stat for fans to discuss a pitcher’s results and doesn’t want to use the earned run rule because it excludes too many batters, he should use runs allowed per nine innings. Neutering the earned run rule so it only applies to the batter and those already on base when the error occurs has no fewer “flaws” than the current rule.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
OK what if the ball should have been caught, but there instead an in the park homer.
I suppose he shouldn’t have let the guy hit the ball?
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 18, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Moral of the story:
No stat is perfect
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 18, 2010 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions
I guess we agree to disagree...
I understand that you like the stat as it stands and have good reasons for wanting that to be so.
I guess I want the stat changed because I want all DIRECT results of a fielder (except the pitcher himself)’s error to be removed while still considering the rest of the inning (or rather game) as if the fielder had properly executed his job.
I think right now the pitcher gets off the hook for a few too many things. The f*ck up themselves? No biggie, it doesn’t count. They give up a bunch of hits after having two outs? It’s not their fault because they got screwed and had to throw the ball more times than they should. Basically, I see the current rule allowing them to get away with indirect things that result from the error of the fielder rather than the most direct things.
But like I said, I think we can agree to disagree, and I respect your stance.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 18, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Works for me
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

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