"The season is not done yet. I only have [246] at-bats, and when you get a couple games of two, three base hits, then you're hitting .260. I'm not going to say I've had a bad year because you can go two, three games 2-for-4, 3-for-4, and then you're hitting .260 and that's not a bad year. You have to finish hard. Right now, the only thing I need is a little more time to play and show them I'm the center fielder, not a backup."
Carlos Gomez, via Adam McCalvy
almost 2 years ago
Kyle Lobner
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Agree with him 100%
and like the attitude. Look at Escobar, he was having a worse season that Gomez (offensively, at least) until he seemed to figure out something over the past few weeks, and now he’s marginally better than Gomez. Like the not accepting the backup role attitude as well.
Cue posts about how .260 isn’t a good season, and how Gomez sucks, and how I’m dumb for being behind the guy.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Aug 22, 2010 8:16 PM CDT reply actions 3 recs
Though he does need to bump the OBP up....
nothing wrong with a .260 BA from him.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
So do you feel that
Gomez’s 1101 PAs prior to reaching Milwaukee where he hit .242/.292 were a fluke?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 22, 2010 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm looking more at his minor league numbers.
I still think he wasn’t allowed to fully develop, and that you don’t develop as a player in the major leagues.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Or at least
that development slows down in the big leagues, as there’s far less focus on it.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I'm talking MLB PAs.
He had 1101 MLB PAs with that line prior to coming to Milwaukee.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 12:42 AM CDT up reply actions
Oops, I misread your comment
Sorry.
My question, then, would be:
Why is Carlos Gomez going to be a statistical outlier? Why is he going to be the guy who has failed in the equivalent of 2.5 full MLB seasons and then suddenly turn it around? Didn’t we all ‘call’ the McGehee regression (as slight as it may be) because we understand how stats and trends usually work? I mean, wasn’t Eric Patterson a ‘five tool’ guy, too?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 12:46 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not saying he's gonna turn it around and be a superstar
But Rickie Weeks took a hell of a lot longer than normal to live up to his potential, didn’t he? Maybe Gomez’s potential was overstated, but I still think he’ll be a valuable player in a few years. I think a year in AAA would do him wonders on the field, though I’d be willing to bet it’d have a negative effect on his attitude. Besides, that’s not going to happen anyway.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
To be fair, Rickie Weeks had some pretty significant injury bumps along the way.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
And, also to be fair
Rickie Weeks ‘bad years’ were head and shoulders above any of Gomez’s years.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Like in 2007 when he was sent to the minors while hitting under the Mendoza line?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Still posted a better MLB wOBA than any season Gomez has
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, but Weeks was also a terrible defender at 2B in his early years while Gomez was elite in CF
Not really a fair comparison either way though, given Weeks’ injury-shortened seasons.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Right, I wasn't the fella who brought Weeks into the conversation
I think Weeks to Gomez is a stupid comp. But, if we’re looking at it, wOBA does take defense into consideration, so that tells you how putrid Gomez’s offense is. I’ve never disparaged his glove, just his offense.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
With that being said he's not going to be going back to the minors to develop
So, if we were to go with the premise that you don’t develop in the major leagues…will he ever develop?
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
I don't disagree that he was rushed to the majors and that hindered his development
But I don’t have the patients to wait a couple of years for him to develop at the major league level. Nor am I confident at this point that he would in the minors.
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
Oh me neither
I’m saying given the opportunity in the big leagues, I think he’d be pretty solidly above average in a few years. I’d be maybe okay with letting that happen, because the Brewers aren’t going to be any good for a few years anyway, but yeah, it’d be a little frustrating, and we’re probably better off looking for a change of scenery candidate, not that those work out in our favor ever anyway.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I'm impatient with doctors that don't have patience with their patients, but still go after patents
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I knew something was wrong. Rec
I was disappointed with the lack of hookers but the pancakes were delightful
So what's the point of the Brewers keeping him?
By the time he develops into a useful player he will have six years in the majors and be a free agent. Might as well let someone else pay to develop him.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
by TheJay on Aug 22, 2010 11:23 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
This is the entire argument against Gomez, in a nutshell
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Because then trade of JJ really was a waste
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
I would have rather had a AA pitcher with #3 upside.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
but how often have AA pitchers with #3 upside turned into anything for this administration? If Gomez performed, no one would be bitching about the Hardy return. Hindsight, and what not.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Fair enough
But they played rookie ball and probably some sort of A ball for another organization… That has to give them a better chance of developing into something decent right?
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions
There were a lot of us
bitching about the Hardy – Gomez trade when it happened, without the benefit of hindsight.
SRS BSNS
As was I
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
"If"
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Keeping Gomez around and letting take AB's away from others isn't going to change that.
He’s a 4th OF and a late inning defensive replacement.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 7:55 AM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Sure, if we can
get a few prospects for him, rookie ballers or whatever, that’s great. Gomez will be a solid player by about the time the Brewers are going to be an okay team, the way it looks like it.
I’m not sure what the point of flat out cutting him would be, given the zero depth in the outfield and his relative cheapness.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I don't think anyone's going to give us a few prospects for Gomez.
I’m not advocating cutting him either and I don’t mind him thinking he’s got to show them he’s their CF. I just think he’s nuts to believe that hitting .260 will show them that. Cain might not be the defensive player Gomez is but he’s shown he can play the position and his bat more than makes up for the difference between their gloves.
If they deal Hart in the offseason or move him to 1st then I’m ok with giving Gomez another go in CF and playing Cain in RF. I don’t think that’s the optimal lineup but it’s not a terrible idea. But if not I don’t want him taking time from Cain.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Though of course Cain's going to regress at some point...
… and pretty dramatically at that. But even if he does it’s a fair bet that Cain’s OBP is going to be 80-100 pts higher than Gomez.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Ehhhh
I think with as few ABs Cain currently has its less “regression” and more “normalizing”. A lot of stats don’t normalize until many more PA’s:
50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO
From here. I have that page bookmarked.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions
You can see the answer if you scroll through the comments section
The guy who did the research clarifies, and you can even see his methodology via a link in that post. Here’s what he said:
Those numbers are per PA, not per ball in play. So, for one player who always puts the ball in play LD + GB + FB may account for 95% of his plate appearances. For another guy who strikes out and walks a lot (we’ll call him "Adam Dunn" just to give him a name), LD + GB + FB might only cover 70% of his PA’s.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry, here was the question that was asked that the above quote was answering
I see an apparent disconnect.
@ 150 PA LD rate is stable.
@200 PA GB rate is stable.
but not until 250 PA is FB% stable.
Since LD% + GB% + FB% = 100, if LD% and GB% are stable by 200 PA, surely FB% must be as well. Either that or the test for stability is flawed. What is wrong with my reasoning?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 23, 2010 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
(Hypothesizing here)
They could be defining "stable to be +/- 2%.
Imagine player X (I am making the numbers easy here) at 201 plate apperances:
LD%=25
GB%=25
FB%=50
After 251 AB he is:
LD%=27
GB%=27
FB%=46
Based on this definition of stablility, LD% and GB% would be stable, but FB% would not be…
Again this is merely a hypothesis and the numbers were made up to make the math easy.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 24, 2010 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
but we pay close to the minimum to develop him, right?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
He is already arbitration-eligible
He’s making over $1 million this year and even for a bad hitter that number will only go up.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
yeah, I guess that's icky
let someone else pay that money
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions
while i like the attitude to some extent...
he’s shown no real ability to do what he’s just said. as a frame of reference, he’s had 18 games with 3 or more hits in 423 games:
2010 – 2 (out of 75 games played)
2009 – 4 (137 games)
2008 – 10 (153)
2007 – 2 (58)
if a few days with sandy fixed things, then sandy needs to either in the majors or roving and visiting all the prospects with hitting issues.
escobar i think has shown more ability to hit, with a higher average in the minors and in the winter leagues.
by Capt Science on Aug 22, 2010 9:14 PM CDT up reply actions
No, Sandy doesn't belong in the bigs,
because Sandy’s a developmental coach, which don’t belong in the big leagues.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Gomez' hitting really has been acceptably bad
Over a full season, he would be on pace for just over 1 WAR right now. If his UZR/150 had been back at his career levels, he would be on pace for 2-2.5 WAR, which is decent and what everybody expected from him in the first place, barring a breakout. Statistically, it’s his defense that’s been unexpectedly poor (though still above average).
I’m becoming more and more convinced that Cain is the better option going forward though.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Also
Since his defense has been improving as the season’s gone along (at least, it seems to be every time I check his UZR/150) and since I think even his critics would accept that it’s not unreasonable for him to return to his career defensive levels going forward, that would make him a 2.5+ WAR starter with upside right now. That is good.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
But where do you play him given the other options?
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not sure there's a spot for him, because I think Cain is a better option
Just saying that Gomez is not a bad player, maybe he could get a shot with another team.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Still 27 to go, I guess
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
That's kind of the way I see it too.
Hopefully another GM will see it that way too so we can get something in exchange.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
My only argument against Gomez:
Gomez is a very good CF defensibly, so good that I don’t mind him hitting .250 with a little bit of pop. In fact, given his speed, I am totally fine running him out there if it weren’t for his horrid OBP (I know that this stat isn’t 100% of the story, but it is a decent measure of how often he can produce runs with his legs). If Gomez’s OBP would be .300 (MLB average is .327, NL average is .325 the worst team average in the majors is Pittsburgh at .301) I would be fine with him in CF.
How I really feel: putting him in the lineup essentially puts two pitchers in the batting order (YoGa has a better slash line than he does), and I don’t feel that this is good enough.
YoGa has a better slash line than most of the team, including Ryan Braun :)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
YoGa is better in every slash stat than Gomez, not so for Braun
Yo:.240 /.296 /.540
Braun:.296/.354/.478
Gomez: .228/.286/.350
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 24, 2010 8:02 AM CDT up reply actions
Meaningless Stats:
(very meaningless)
Assuming .260 BA Actual Ceteris Stats Paribus -------------------------- AB 246 246 H 56 63.96 1B 39 45 2B 9 10 3B 3 3 HR 5 6 BB 16 16 BA 0.228 0.26 OBP 0.286 0.316 SLG 0.35 0.399 OPS 0.635 0.715 HBP 4 4 SF 0 0
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Out of curiosity how did you come up with those prjections?
I am more interested in the increase of doubles/HR. Did you assume his double/AB (etc) percentage would remain constant?
I really wish there would be a change in walks too, but I know that we can’t really quantify that change.
Overall, nice work.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, i assumed the same distribution in hits
as he’s had year to date. Thought about doing career, but got bored. Also, I allowed for “partial” hits, so the 1B-HR numbers are displayed with no decimals, but did have them going into the rate stat calculations.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I was just thinking...
Gomez probably thinks he’s the awesome because he’s hitting around 2280. He added another decimal point, and that makes him a god.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Gomez is another Brewer who is better than the stats they put up. Randy Wolf anyone? Gomez is way to good defensively and has way to much talent for us to just bury him and forget about him. I really see Gomez as a near 300 hitter next season, as long as he can work out whatever problem he has.
"A ringing single for David Eckstein who, in my view, is the perfect size for an American male." -Bob Costas
I was mostly with you
until you said Gomez will be a near .300 hitter next season. What have you seen that backs that statement up?
Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"
Regardless of how bad Gomez is at math, I like his attitude.
He wants the job back. I don’t like that he refuses to admit that he needs to improve, but at least he still wants to go out there an prove that he’s the best.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
He's better than Wes Obermueller in my book
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
the problem with the "I'm the king of the world, I'm an awesome ballplayer" attitude
is when the player himself realizes it’s not true, then he’ll really start to suck.
Also Gomez’s attitude is very similar to that of Suppan (and Ned Yost for that matter)
Queue 'one pitch away' line
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 24, 2010 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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