Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while playing out of position.
Every five days we come together to discuss the same thing, and today is no exception: Manny Parra remains terrible. Parra allowed seven runs on eight hits over six innings yesterday, allowing four walks, striking out five and giving up two solo home runs. He's posted a 6.39 ERA and allowed opposing batters to hit .295/.378/.503 against him since returning to the rotation on May 29, and the Brewers are 1-7 in his last eight appearances. But, he did have a decent FIP two years ago.
The reaction to Parra's start seems pretty fitting at this point. The crowd booed, Tom Haudricourt busted out the definition of insanity, and Adam McCalvy was speechless.
At least a change may be in the works. In his postgame news conference, Ken Macha hinted at the possibility that the Brewers will look at other rotation options in September. With that said, if the Brewers make a rotation change they might replace Chris Narveson instead: Adam McCalvy is reporting the Brewers are monitoring Narveson's innings in an effort not to push him too far beyond last season's workload.
Jaymes Langrehr of the Brewers Bar has spotted an issue with Parra's mechanics: He compares Manny's release point to Jon Garland's, and notes that Parra's release seems to fluctuate along a horizontal line.
Meanwhile, a couple of Brewers had some excellent outings in long relief this weekend: Chris Capuano and Mike McClendon kept the Brewers in Friday and Saturday's games with strong, extended outings. Capuano told Adam MCCalvy his long-term goal is to get back into the rotation, while McClendon appears to be targeting a spot in the 2011 bullpen. McClendon picked up the win on Saturday, his first as a major leaguer.
Other notes from the field:
- Ryan Braun, Luke Gregerson and Manny Parra are leading FanGraphs Star of the Game voting.
- Craig Counsell started at shortstop yesterday and went 1-for-5 in his 1500th major league game.
- Yesterday's game lasted three hours and six minutes, meaning the Brewers have now played 15 days, 22 hours and five minutes of regular season baseball in 2010.
- Bob Costas was in attendance at yesterday's game and joined Bob Uecker in the booth for several innings.
- Adrian Gonzalez hit one of the two home runs off Parra, and now has seven home runs in his first 18 games at Miller Park.
Today's biggest news will likely come regarding Carlos Gomez: The Brewers are expected to announce a decision on their plans for him before tomorrow's game. He could be activated off the DL or optioned back to AAA until rosters expand on September 1. He isn't lacking for confidence, though: He told Adam McCalvy he wants the center field job back, and dropped the line again about only being a few multi-hit games away from hitting .260 (FanShot). At this point, he'd need eleven consecutive 2-for-4 games to reach that mark.
Ryan Braun had easily the best weekend by a Brewer, going 6-for-10 with five walks and two home runs, good for a .600/.733/1.200 line. Chris Dickerson, who apparently is Braun's new personal spokesperson, told Adam McCalvy Braun has been dealing with a sore wrist but is feeling better.
John Axford has four multi-inning saves in the last two weeks, but Anthony Witrado reports that the Brewers are not concerned about his workload. If it were up to me, he'd be done recording 4+ out saves in 2010: It's great that he has that skill and I hope to see it again in 2011, but there's no reason to be putting the extra stress on his arm in meaningless games.
Yovani Gallardo is scuffling a fair amount lately: After Friday night's disaster start, he's now posted a 5.61 ERA since July 1. The Brewers Bar wonders if the oblique injury that put Gallardo on the shelf in July is still bothering him.
It seems like Ryan Braun's defensive abilities are being called into question more frequently this season, as some notable lapses at critical times have really highlighted some of his shortcomings out there. FanGraphs' Aggregate Defensive Evaluations rated Braun near the middle of the pack among left fielders in 2009, but also noted that the Fan Scouting Report ranked Braun much higher than any other defensive metric.
How much of a difference can two games make? Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker notes that the Brewers may have reduced the Cardinals' playoff chances by as much as 20% with last week's series sweep.
As we've been expecting for a while now, LaTroy Hawkins' season is officially over. Hawkins will undergo exploratory surgery on Friday to clean up some fraying in his shoulder and check for signs of any more serious problems. The Brewers Bar has a look back at Hawkins' rough 2010.
It probably won't be the Brewers' highest profile offseason move, but a change in the third base coaching box might be long overdue. Ryan Braun was nearly tagged out between third and home on an ugly baserunning play over the weekend after what Jordan Schelling said looked like "a bad sign or conflicting signs" from third base coach Brad Fischer. Fischer also waved around Chris Capuano when he was thrown out at the plate on Friday with Corey Hart due up.
In the minors:
- The affiliates went just 1-4 yesterday with the lone win coming in the Pioneer League, where Cody Hawn went 2-for-4 with a walk, a home run and three runs scored in Helena's 11-4 win over Idaho Falls. You can read about that and more in today's Minor League Notes.
- Bob Brainerd of Fox Sports Wisconsin has profiles of Timber Rattlers Hunter Morris and Jake Odorizzi.
- The Appleton Post Crescent has a profile of Wisconsin pitcher Damon Krestalude. (h/t Rattler Radio)
- Catcher Rafael Neda, a 2010 tenth round pick, has been promoted to Helena.
On power rankings: Beyond the Box Score has the Brewers holding steady at 20.
This isn't exactly a power ranking, but Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs gave the Brewers an eight out of ten (tied for fourth in all of baseball) in his new Team NERD stat, designed to identify teams that are fun to watch.
We're down to the final few nominations for the SBN Wisconsin Hall of Fame:
- Brew Hoop nominated Jon McGlocklin, Bob Lanier, Terry Cummings, Marques Johnson and Junior Bridgeman and Glenn Robinson.
- Bucky's 5th Quarter nominated Joe Thomas.
If all goes well, I'm hoping to open fan voting for the inaugural class one week from today.
Around baseball:
Angels: Placed shortstop Maicer Izturis on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Athletics: Placed first baseman/outfielder Conor Jackson on the DL with a lower abdominal strain.
Cubs: Lou Piniella, scheduled to retire after the season, has instead decided to retire immediately.
Diamondbacks: Signed pitcher Mike Hampton to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Designated infielder Juan Castro for assignment and acquired catcher Rod Barajas from the Mets for cash.
Giants: Designated infielder Matt Downs for assignment and claimed outfielder Cody Ross off waivers from the Marlins.
Marlins: Catcher Ronny Paulino has been suspended for the rest of the season after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.
Twins: Placed pitcher Kevin Slowey (tricep discomfort), pitcher Ron Mahay (shoulder) and infielder Nick Punto (hamstring) on the DL.
Yankees: Placed Alex Rodriguez on the DL with a calf strain.
Who says losing doesn't pay? The Pirates have baseball's worst record and lowest payroll this season, but made over $34 million between 2007 and 2009, according to recently released financial reports.
While the news has been good for the Pirates off the field, the situation remains pretty bad on it. The Pirates lost their 82nd game over the weekend, clinching their 18th consecutive losing season. At this point they'd have to go 28-10 the rest of the way to avoid becoming the fourth team ever (and the first non-expansion team since 1930) to lose at least 94 games in six straight seasons, joining the 1925-30 Red Sox, 1962-67 Mets and 1969-74 Padres. (Thanks to TheJay for the info.)
The news also isn't exceptionally good for unsigned Brewer first round pick Dylan Covey: Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a look at the unpredictable track record of players who were drafted in the first round but didn't sign.
Anyone want to rehash the debate about pitchers batting eighth? Tony La Russa and the Cardinals moved the pitcher back into the #9 spot for Saturday's game, and broke a five game losing streak. Brendan Ryan batted eighth and went 1-for-3 with an RBI double and a walk.
Jody Gerut probably should be the third Brewer on this list: Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times lists former Brewers Chad Moeller (#5) and Charlie Moore (#9) among the ten least likely position players ever to hit for the cycle.
If you enjoyed this spring's Create-Your-Own Spring Training Story, you'll likely also enjoy The Book Blog's Generic MVP Thread.
Being a ballboy can be a rough, thankless job, but if you do it right it can also pay off. Jane Lee has the story of an A's ballboy that used a series of foul balls to land a date. (Video)
Happy birthday over the weekend to:
- DSL Brewer Raul Mondesi Jr., who turns 18 today.
- Zach Braddock, who turns 23 today.
- Wisconsin Timber Rattler Erik Miller, who turns 23 today.
- Mark DiFelice, who turns 34 today.
- 2000-02 Brewer Raul Casanova, who turns 38 today.
- 1997 Brewer Julio Franco, who turns 52 today.
- Randy Wolf, who turned 34 Sunday.
- 1997-98 Brewer Darrin Jackson, who turned 47 Sunday.
- 1978-92 Brewer and Hall of Famer Paul Molitor, who turned 54 Sunday.
- Milwaukee native Happy Felsch, who would have turned 119 on Sunday. Felsch spent six seasons with the White Sox from 1915-1920 before being banned from baseball for helping fix the 1919 World Series.
- 1999-01 Brewer Lou Collier, who turned 37 Saturday.
- Craig Counsell, who turned 40 Saturday.
- 1986-87 Brewer John Henry Johnson, who turned 54 Saturday.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I think I missed a turn.
Drink up.
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Comments
At 3 innings per start...
…I don’t think the Brewers need to be monitoring Narveson’s workload
Not to beat the dead horse that is Manny Parra in the rotation.
But I wonder what the Brewers are trying to accomplish by running Parra out to the bump every 5 days to desecrate baseball.
I suppose that perhaps the Brewers don’t feel they have a suitable replacement for Parra — which is another head-scratcher — however, that seems to me to be destroying Parra’s value as a pitcher, and perhaps his potential as a relief pitcher.
I can’t imagine the Brewers actually think that in one of these starts he will “turn it around”.
Also, best wishes to Lou Pinella and his mom.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 10:44 AM CDT reply actions
The difficulty in identifying Parra's (or Narveson's) replacement from within...
….is that our three highest upside prospects over the past couple years (Braddock, Rogers, and Jeffress) are all profiling as relievers. We need one of those guys to step up and into the rotation…injuries, walks, and weed notwithstanding.
by infield fly on Aug 23, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions
It's the "who else" syndrome
They might be able to pick up Suppan in a trade. There’s just no one they’re willing to throw out there, otherwise. Capuano is really the only other option and if he hasn’t gotten a start yet, it seems like he’s not likely to get one. Macha adores having Lo9e in the ‘pen so he’s not moving away from that role.
Maybe the September call-ups, as KL notes, will get his spot. In the meantime, there’s no one else they can throw out there in his place.
Go Reds! (This signature applies only through the 2010 regular season)
Red Flag.
Going up.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Hopefully they're giving him every painstaking opportunity to let him prove that he should not be in the rotation next season.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I give Manny the sink or swim treatment.
Keep him in the rotation the rest of the year. Either he’ll show something for next year or (more likely) he’ll drown his way to a non-tender with CV.
Speaking of nontenders
What are the chances Inglett is on the team next year? He’s been used mostly in the OF, but he plays most IF spots too. He hits arb 1 next year, but I’m not sure how much that will amount to. $850,000?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I think Inglett is a lock.
He’s LH, versatile, knows how to PH, & he’ll never make very much in arbitration.
Depends how highly the arbitrators weigh him being on the same "hottest" list with Kate Bilo
http://www.mlbsoup.com
he's best friends with Kate Bilo, so if the arbitrators are nice, maybe they'll get to meet her.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
she wasn't at the grocery store when I was there
or at least I didn’t notice her
drat
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 11:58 AM CDT up reply actions
It'll likely be around that number...
which is fine with me. Heck, he’d be worth it even if it went as high as $1M.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
The funny part about all of this
Is that as bad of a year as Parra is having, he’s having just as good of a year as Randy Wolf. And something like 70% of the regular visitors are all for Wolf’s signing this past offseason.
At $8 million less in salary than Wolf, I would call Parra’s year, in relative terms, a huge success. He’s performing above what he is being paid, and as everyone has noted, there is no replacement that is going to improve the team.
The upside here is that Parra still has big time stuff. He has an upside, although at this point it is definitely not as high as it used to be.
Are you looking strictly at k/9?
Because by virtually any other measure, you’re just wrong.
Wolf’s not having a good year. That’s pretty clear. Parra has been worse. If you want to talk about how Wolf’s salary means his bad year is more damaging to the club than Parra’s horrendous year, I’ve got less of a problem with that. If you want to suggest that once you get to a certain level of bad, how much worse you get doesn’t matter, that’s fine too. But if you’re going to run around the bases with your hands up in the air yelling “look at me” because you’ve been proven right about the Wolf signing, you could at least just go ahead and do so instead of reaching for an inaccurate comparison that allows you to give anyone who disagrees a second kick to the groin in the same comment.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Link
That shows Wolf is almost 2 wins better than Parra as a starter
Thanks for finding the link.
Get a ife broseph
Furthermore.
When you start using Randy Wolf 2010 as the bar for “successful season” — you probably would want to get a new bar.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions
Plus, Wolf has been
relatively solid for a while now, if you take out the 12 or 13 run drubbing he was (rightfully) left in to endure.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
RANDY WOLF SUCKSD !~!~!!!!!!!@@!!!!!!!!~!
There is your outrage.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
er. outcry.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Last BCB Tracking Poll
Has an approval rate of 60% regarding the Randy Wolf signing.
He has the exact same WAR number that Manny Parra does. All I am saying is that there has been a ton of electronic ink being used to talk about how crummy Manny Parra has been, while in the end, the big time FA signing done during last year’s offseason, has been just as bad, but with no where near the blog posts regarding Wolf.
So you're making up for it yourself with hyperbole?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think part of that reason.
Is that Wolf is locked into the rotation — there really isn’t much to discuss. Wolf isn’t going to AAA, to the BP, he is going to start next season in the rotation
Parra on the other hand — there is a lot of uncertainty in his future.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also...
… Wolf has sucked for one season. Parra’s done it longer.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
bigger deal:
Wolf has been good/decent in the major leagues
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I think a lot of it is the fact
That we’ve only been watching Wolf suck for the better part of a year, whereas we’ve been watching Manny suck for almost 2 1/2 years.
That, and Wolf has shown some real signs of improvement (or, really, regression to the mean) in the past couple of months. Manny, not so much.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Oop.
Should have read this before making my 1:23PM comment.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, damn that Randy Wolf and is 12 quality starts
Meanwhile, Parra hasn’t pitched past the 6th the entire season.
I'm sick of people saying we can't use certain stats to discuss Parra.
Parra’s ERA sucks and he never gets quality starts, so those are just neatly excused from the conversation. I’m assuming you’d also like to remove his 1.600+ WHIP from the equation too? Or the .500 slugging percentage against?
At what point do the results start to matter?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
So we can use bad stats, just not good stats like FIP?
Also, I think people are misconstruing the argument in defense of Parra. Nobody is saying he has been great, just that his peripherals indicate he is going to get better eventually.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
But
they don’t say when “eventually” is… do they? That’d be nice to know.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
It doesn't really work that way at all
the peripherals indicate, in Manny Parra’s case, that he has the “stuff” to improve his performance drastically. There is nothing that guarantees that improvement because his command might never come around.
I think Manny Parra is actually a perfect example of how many stats are misused. His BABIP this year is .360, which a lot of people would see and assume hes just been unlucky on balls in play. But his career BABIP is .351 and its never been below .332, so its more likely major league bats can make solid contact against Manny.
The bottom line is there is everything to indicate he could be a good pitcher at some point, but absolutely nothing to indicate that improvement will happen eventually.
by dtmeyers on Aug 23, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
There's plenty to indicate that Parra could be a rare player
who allows a .330+ BABIP. But there is nothing to indicate that he should have the worst BABIP since 1950. I think there’s a good chance that if he were to continue to start he’d put up a .320-.330 BABIP and 4.3 FIP. That has a lot of value. And there’s no reason to dump him in a lost year anyways.
The most extreme BABIPs for pitchers are usually .330 and .270. There’s reason to believe Parra’s norm is .330. There’s no reason to believe he’s the only pitcher since 1950 that happens to give up this many hits on balls in play.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
"There’s no reason to believe he’s the only pitcher since 1950..."
Why? Just because no one’s done it before doesn’t mean you can or should ignore that he’s doing it somehow.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Yeah, there's really no saying Parra has been better than Wolf this year...
But. Quality starts is a terrible stat. Terrible.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
How about this statistic: When Parra pitches, the Brewers LOSE.
We are 12-21 in games soiled by Manny’s pitching.
Or, the league has a combined .853 OPS against him
IE, he turns every hitter in the lineup, including the pitcher spot, into Ryan Braun.
Manny Parra
Left handed hitters have a .358 Average and a 1.059 OPS against him! Do you know how bad that is for a left handed pitcher?
For reference the following players have these numbers for their careers:
ARod’s: .303 /.958
Lord Pujols’: .332 /1.051
Braun: .306/.914
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Randy Wolf makes me want to go to the bar.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Not sure where to reply with this, but:
Taking out the epic disaster (12 ER) start, Randy Wolf’s ERA this year is 4.14, and 2.88 over his last 10 starts.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
This was just the first thing I thought of
Taking the year as a whole: Wolf has been decent.
with a short memory Wolf has been good.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Not a fair comparison
I only took out one of Wolf’s bad ones.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
When he was left in way too long by our lovely manager, no less.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Here
Ever to date, excluding his “worst start”: 5.06 ERA
Last 10 starts: 7.45 ERA
Last 10 starts, excluding his worst start: 6.34 ERA
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
xFIP – the only stat you’re allowed to use when evaluating Manny Parra (unless his FIP is good).
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Aug 23, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because xFIP is better over the short-term, and also makes more sense to use if you’re projecting how good we should expect somebody to be in the long-term.
But, there’s nothing wrong with tRA/tERA either, fair enough.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Are we projecting long term anymore?
Parra’s FIP was good in 2008, doesn’t that mean he should be good now?
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
It means he's capable of what he did in 2008
Unless there has been some sort of irreversible change. HIs stuff is about the same so I don’t see why not.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
tRA is the best in theory
But until batted ball classifications are perfected I don’t trust it as more than a range of maybe .3 runs either way.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
You're going off statcorner?
Note that that number is runs/9, not an ERA scale. You have to multiply by .92 to get the ERA scale. It’s on Fangraphs, Parra’s at 4.87 so I’d be ok with saying his skill has been between 4.57 and 5.17 this year. Not good, but not disaster either. That’s a capable bottom of the rotation starter.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
But 5.68 * .92 = 5.22
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Different classifications, I think
That’s the reason for the range. 5.22 and 4.87 from the same stat. That was my reason for saying I’d rather use FIP at this point, because there’s an inconsistency with how the balls are classified and I think it’s more useful as an evaluation tool with a range than as an exact number representing skill.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Off topic, sort of
But since we’re talking about stat issues, I’m leery of FanGraphs because they calculate BABIP strangely. Who knows what they do to their other numbers.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Fangraphs is quite open about all their calculations, I'm not sure what you mean.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Then show me
Where do they explain the difference between their BABIP and the BABIP formula found on baseball-reference and wikipedia, etc.?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Thank you.
Pity you have to dig through their forums. Seems like something they’d put in their glossary.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I prefer sabermetrics
And I still think Manny Parra is awful. I don’t know how you can be successful with BB/9 over 4.5.
In the link that backtocali posted earlier you can see that none of Manny’s rate state are really outside a reasonable deviation from his established norms. Which seems to say that I can reasonably say that Manny Parra will continue to suck this year and next.
Now maybe his uptick in K/9 is real, maybe he decreases his BB/9 further under Peterson. But I don’t see his BABIP dropping below .320, and with his norms in GB % and HR/FB% I don’t see him being a more than mediocre pitcher at best.
I’m not sure thats worth hoping for in the future and having to watch his garbage every fifth day in the meantime.
It took plenty of elite pitchers more than three partial seasons to reach their “established norms” and put everything together. Parra has a history of much better control, and his current BABIP and lack of success with his K/9 is unprecedentedly bad. Unless you think Parra is going to be a historical outlier (by a large margin), there’s every reason to expect him to turn things around in the near future.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Define the near future
if it’s not next season, then it’s not worth it.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
"Parra has a history of much better control"
When? His career major league BB/9 is 4.5 and this year he is at 4.7. Plenty of pitchers have seen their BB/9 increase from the minors to the majors.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I’m not suggesting that we should expect him to maintain his minor league BB/9 in the majors, but he showed good enough control in the minors (over more innings) that we should be suspicious of a BB/9 near 5.0 in the majors.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
How long until that suspicion goes away?
If he’s keeps his rotation spot then by this time next year he’ll have more major league innings than minor league innings. Even setting aside the fact I think what he did as 20 year old in the Midwest League has no bearing on what he’s doing now, I don’t see how he’s going to flip a switch he hasn’t found in 3+ years in the majors and go from 4.5 to 3.5 BB/9.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Even with a walks rate between 4 and 4.5
He strikes out enough guys that he is able to be successful. He was successful with a lot of walks in 2008. A pitcher that can put up a 4.4 over 160 innings has a lot of value. So even if he does keep up his current rate of walks, he can still be valuable if that damn BABIP goes down.
Not saying he should be given a starting spot next year right off the bat. But there’s no reason to DFA him or anything. They could make another annual Looper/Davis type pickup, but I’d bet on Parra being about the same for cheaper.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
What's the stat for
the manager leaves him in the game too fricking long?
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions
As FtJ pointed out recently:
the reason Parra is going to be a statistical outlier is because very few pitchers have been given the opportunity to pitch so poorly for so long.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
This really is not true and I can find a lot of examples of truly horrible pitchers who have pitched for a long time
And still managed to put up a much lower BABIP than Manny Parra.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Therein lies his point
Basically everyone in the neighborhood of Parra’s BABIP was given a quick hook. Parra has not. Everyone on your list of “truly horrible pitchers” was allowed to pitch that long probably in part to that fact that they weren’t giving up hits at the insane rate the Parra does. If they had comparable BABIP to Parra’s, they would not have pitched that many innings
Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"
It's just not true
Like look at post-2001 Jose Lima. I’m at a loss for terrible pitchers right now but I just looked up a few that are absolutely horrid, bad ERAs and bad FIPs, and they still manage to put up BABIPs in the range of .280 to .320 and have terrible season with a BABIP under .300. BABIP has little to do with pitching skill. Some, but not much at all.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
you are just handwaving
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think you're arguing the same argument as the rest of those here
People are saying that his BABIP is historically bad. And that it might be something that he’s doing. Other pitchers who have had as bad of a BABIP haven’t been given that long of an opportunity.
The argument is not that all crappy pitchers have bad BABIP, just that if you have a bad BABIP, you’re probably a crappy pitcher. And most crappy pitchers (not all: see Lima and Kip Wells) are given a short leash.
Most bad pitchers are bad because of other reasons that aren’t reflected in BABIP. Perhaps 1 in 100 (or so) are bad due to BABIP and another couple coincidentally have below average BABIP. If, say, of those 100 bad pitchers, 95 don’t get an opportunity to play much (because they suck), the chances that the one with the bad BABIP sticks around are pretty damned tiny.
My personal slant on this:
BABIP isn’t the only possible contributor to bad, but it may very well be one. High BABIP may actually result in old timey managers getting rid of players earlier in development in olden days (opponents got a bunch of hits off of him, he must be doing something wrong). Perhaps it’s only because of sabermetrics and this concept of luck associated with a pitcher’s BABIP that Parra has been given as much chance as he has. Without sabermetrics, Parra might be roadkill by now.
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions
It's just not true. At all. It's a team stat. Amount of runs scored,
prorated out to 9 innings, while a particular pitcher is on the mound. Excluding runs that would have hypothetically not scored had a defender made a play on a ball he touched, as judged by a scorer.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I wasn't talking about ERA.
I was talking about this focus on stats that purportedly describe how Manny SHOULD be pitching, while disregarding what he’s actually doing on the field.
SRS BSNS
That's understandable, but there is no perfect pitching stat, unfortunately
So if you take into account things he can control: strikeouts, walks, groundballs, and home runs allowed, you can get a very good idea of how good of a pitcher he is. Stats like that are really just scaled to ERA because people know how to use it and judge it.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And when you watch him put down the first two hitters in an inning ...
and then walk Luis Freakin’ Durango, give up a hit to the opposing pitcher, a run-scoring single to David Eckstein, and a two-RBI double to the Corpse of Miguel Tejada, you find it very hard to believe that he could ever be an above-average Major League pitcher.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
So you can give up three runs on six hits in an inning
And as long as you strike out three guys you’re a gem. It bothers me that people say that just because defense plays some part in hits that all of it needs to be discounted – it’s crap. When McGehee hits a liner over the shortstop’s head it’s not anyone’s fault but the pitcher’s, it’s not the shortstop’s responsibility to be 12 feet tall.
Next game actually put your hypothesis to the test. When someone gets a hit, judge whether Griffey Jr. or Ozzie Smith or Brooks Robinson could have hauled it in, or if it was a legitimate hit. I’m guessing you’ll probably wonder about one or two hits the whole game, but you’ll see one or two great plays by someone too.
Almost all hits are determined coming off the bat.
In 1998, Greg Maddux had a BABIP allowed of .272.
In 1999, Greg Maddux had a BABIP allowed of .334.
Point is, it can be extremely random. Pitchers have incredibly little control over what happens after a ball is put in play. I could link you about 100 different studies or mail you The Book. It’s an established fact.
You can make up a situation like that to try to prove your point but the truth is this. Strikeouts and walks (and homers and groundballs) are an incredibly good proxy for pitching skill. You can just about judge any pitcher’s ERA in history (with a large enough sample of innings) by looking at those 4 numbers. It’s nearly foolproof. If you think Manny Parra is the statistical anamoly, one of maybe like 3 pitchers since 1950 who don’t fit that mold, thats your initiative. Me, I’d like to see some reason why batters are able to get hits on balls in play at a historically high rate when his stuff is undeniably above-average. He does have bad control. But this .360 BABIP over nearly a year and a half is almost outside the realm of possibility. I’ll take my chances that it will regress toward the mean, like everything in statistics always does. Maybe he’s a .330/.340 BABIP pitcher, but that’s ok.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
His stuff is undeniably above average
except when he throws an arrow straight fastball or hangs a breaking ball right down the middle of the plate. His best stuff is awesome, but it’s so inconsistent.
Is he tipping pitches? Does he have a mechanical issue that makes his “stuff” more inconsistent than most?
I think the real problem re: the "mental weakness" thing
is that too many different issues — ranging from depression to anxiety to lack of focus as the game continues to low baseball IQ — are being lumped together under that singular heading.
SRS BSNS
That's the $100MM question, literally
Figure out Manny’s problem and you’ve got a #2 pitcher for eight years.
How about it?
You do that one. I don’t know the formula off the top of my head, so I can’t do quick and dirty calculations with it.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Luckily?
both Wolf and Parra’s worst starts have been in their last 10 games, so it’s a fair comparison.
Although, Manny’s ETD stats above include his time as a reliever. Taking those out:
as a starter: 6.44 ever to date, 5.70 ever to date (removing worst start).
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
It's almost like ERA does not accurately reflect how well a pitcher has pitched...
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
No, but it produces a pretty decent generalization.
It shouldn’t be used in a vacuum, but if you see a guy with a 5.50 ERA in decent sample size, odds are he’s not very good.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think you mean runs better.
Because Yovani, as good as he is, isn’t quite worth 33.6 wins as a starting pitcher.
Actually, it shows he's been almost 2 *runs* better than Parra
Meaning, basically the same.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
There is no way in Heaven or Earth
That I could call Parra’s season a huge success.
by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
At this point...
Selling Parra’s upside would be like selling “weight-loss” as an upside to a heroin addiction.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Take a walk -- do some drugs.
probably not heroin though.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions
Probably should stay sober for bike riding.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I am embracing responsible behavior today
Weird.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
WOW~!
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Ok, come on.
Read that again and tell me calling Parra’s season “a huge success” isn’t completely ridiculous.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Maybe "huge" isnt the right word
But they are getting more than they are paying for.
That’s a success. The problem just comes out of how theyve spent their other money.
By that logic
Every week on garbage day I should empty all of my neighbors’ trash cans into my garage. Sure, my garage will smell terrible and it’s more likely to become a nuisance than anything useful, but if I find a penny in there I’ll have gotten more than what I paid for it.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions 6 recs
I think you mean "logic".
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
But that assumes your time is valued at less then 1 penny.
I assume his point is that Parra is worth more then we pay currently, while not a good pitcher, he’s currently valued right on the money. As soon as he gets a raise though.. things will change and then the numbers say to dump em.
I’m a “let Parra pitch out the season” guy, but he’s starting to get on me. At some point we just have to eat the losses and trade him for some junk.
by SgtClueLs on Aug 23, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
We would have to pay his entire contract and pay that team a certain amount every time he runs out there.
Double if he is playing the Brewere.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
It's probably worth noting somewhere
that the entirety of his positive value this year is in his 24IP as a reliever, and that he has been horrendous as a starter. That breakdown at FanGraphs you provided above isolates that. And it makes sense, when he starts, I would image his ERA in the first 3 innings is reasonable, but he collapses after the 4th or 5th inning as a result of his pitch count and/or going through the order another time. He is effective as a reliever that can go multiple innings, but every start he makes is a reason DM cannot effectively build a successful roster.
on a parra-related note
that brewers bar article shows his release points as spread horizontally… does parra change his position on the rubber? would that be adjusted for in the chart?
by Capt Science on Aug 23, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Not sure if he still is ...
But he was constantly changing his position on the rubber two years ago.
SRS BSNS
There is a potential for a TWSS joke in here -- if it would have been reworded properly
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
And I didn't see this, but yes
It’s a very possible explanation.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I, for one...
Will never change my position on the rubber. You always ALWAYS use one. (Come on, that joke kills in middle schools)
only because middle school kids will laugh at everything
because they don’t want to be the one that doesn’t get it.
that being said, what the hell?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Probably close to a million?
He was making $4.5M with a $250K buyout.
Definition of a sunk cost since they weren’t using him.
Get a ife broseph
Plus, letting him go makes room for a fifth outfielder they won't use.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
The end of the Riske era
66 IP and 5.40 ERA over 3 years, in which he was paid $13 million.
Get a ife broseph
But think of all the wonderful punning...
… that occurred before he got hurt. That alone was worth at least $50.
Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Parra's mechanics do seem messed up
but the Brewers bar graph does little to prove that. We’ve been through that issue before, and pitchers (especially lefties) often vary their spot on the pitching rubber based on the batter. That can make the horizontal line of varying release points if there’s a few inches of difference between where the pitcher is starting on the rubber.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
so, Riske was released and Hawkins is going to be on the rest-of-the-season DL
so if Gomez is going to be brought up because of Riske, then who’s gonna be brought up because of Hawkins?
I think he has the sux.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Funny
I got Party Suite tickets last night. (Thanks Liz!) And while sipping on free beer and eating free food I noticed that two people in the suite over had Looper jersey Ts.
I guess he’s got family still living in town.
Or...
People still wear Brewers t-shirts even after the player is no longer on the team. I still see Hardy t-shirts.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I still wear my Sabathia shirt
I paid good money for that shirt*
*Actually, I got it on clearance after the season was over.
are you the one that converted it to a Smith shirt?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty sure that was JAMOOL
I liked last year when they demoted Hardy and brought up Esky, and somebody had a Hardy jersey on that said “X3” next to the 7
http://www.mlbsoup.com
When can Hardy shirts become "retro" and acceptable to wear again?
I’ve been holding on to mine
Get a ife broseph
I don't know
but Kohl’s still had a few left in their clearance section when I was there a week ago. There were also Gamel ones.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
A new Coffey?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
now how am I going to play cowboy?
all Sesame Street references aside, the Brewers can ride Loe until he breaks throw Inglett out there again go with 11 pitchers until 9/1. Besides, McClendon specializes in multi-inning appearances.
MLB article on unsigned first rounders
it seems the rate of hits to misses is about the same as for an actual signed first rounder. So, what’s the big deal?
The big deal is on their end of the deal
If their chances are no better after the come back, then why are they risking injury in college ball, for instance? Take the money now and develop through the minor leagues instead of college. It depends upon how seriously you take the “college” part of playing “college baseball.”
Go Reds! (This signature applies only through the 2010 regular season)
*sigh*
maybe the Brewers would have been better off if they signed AJ Cole?
by ilikeburritos on Aug 23, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ok, here's an example of why I don't like FIP
People who want to use fielding-independent pitching want to eliminate any statistics that are outside the control of the pitcher: Home Runs, Strikeouts, and Walks. I understand that. But in your desire to create a more objective pitching stat, have you created an even more flawed one?
FIP is basically (HR*13 + 3*BB – 2*K) / IP.
That might be a fairly balanced way of figuring a pitcher’s effectiveness…. if they all faced the same hitters. Unfortunately, we don’t all play the same number of games against each team. Some pitchers must suffer through the American League East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, and some pitchers get a vacation in the AL West with the anemic Mariners and Athletics.
Talk about a margin of error – if you calculate a division’s FIP from their offensive totals you get:
AL East: 1.02
AL Cent: 0.78
AL West: 0.56
NL East: 0.64
NL Cent: 0.64
NL West: 0.64
Correct me if I’m wrong on the FIP calculation, because I don’t use it, but I’m pretty sure that pitching in a division where your average hitter is 83% more FIP-potent is going to skew your numbers a little more than whether your shortstop is quite as slick a fielder as someone else’s, don’t you think? Or is FIP equalized on a game by game basis against the value of the hitters faced?
Go ahead, chew me up if I deserve it. I want to know the answers.
It's adjusted for league for sure.
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor that scales FIP to match league average ERA for a given season and league.
Actually, I highly recommend reading this whole piece. Doesn’t hurt to know more. I learn stuff on these stats every day.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And not to beat a dead horse, but
You can make the EXACT same argument for ERA. Pitchers facing more better-hitting teams (e.g., pitcher’s in the AL East) tend to give up more runs, have higher ERAs, etc., etc. Granted, it doesn’t entirely resolve the issue just to say “Same thing with ERA, so there,” but this isn’t a new problem that FIP creates, it’s a problem that has always existed.
Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?
I think Melvin outrighted Riske
so this thread would veer away from its unhealthy obsession on “the value of Manny Parra.”
If so, Melvin gets my “yes” vote on Kyle’s poll.
Parra is not the first, nor the last, pitcher with potential that Brewer management has messed up. I just wish for this year that Parra stays in the rotation AND Macha has the sense to remove him when he walks two runners in an inning.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 3:47 PM CDT reply actions
Brewer management messed up? Any specific reason why?
I think he is better utlized in the bullpen as he has the most trouble facing the order the second and third time around. Depending on how much he costs, I don’t see the big problem with putting him in the bullpen next year. He has potential there, and could fill in and spot start if needed.
Get a ife broseph
My argument is with Macha's in-game ineptitude.
Fine, put Parra in the pen. Start McClendon. He’s started all year in the minors. I could understand and endorse that roster move, as a fan.
BUT if Parra continues to start, I’m just saying we’ve been seeing Manny implode with the manager keeping in there trying to finish an inning (when the whole world knows the well for Manny is EMPTY).
Parra has his problems dealing with the ups and downs of a game, but there is no excuse for Macha, leaving his pitchers, esp Bush and Parra, in too long. That’s ultimately what got Ned canned.
Macha should suffer the same end if he keeps staring out at the field immobilized when Crew fandom knows the pitcher is done.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
McClendon started three games in the minors, fwiw
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
How'd he do?
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I think his point is
3 starts does not a starter make, especially to say “all year”
I think you mean loe or cappy started “all year” in the minors, but admittedly they had short seasons in the minors and may have had a couple of pen appearances (cappy esp.)
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Loe, not McClendon. My mistake.
The Brewers drafted McClendon as a starter acc to Baseball Reference in 2006. Since 2008, he has been used almost exclusively as a middle reliever, garnering the occasional close opportunity.
I took my assumption from something BA or Rock said during a recent game. My mistake.
Kameron Loe made 10 appearances for Nashville before being brought up – all starts. In those 10 starts, he accumulated 62 innings, on average pitching into the 7th inning.
I saw Loe start against the Reds late in spring training in Goodyear. He was in command while on the mound. Certainly he raised expectations.
I think my point about Macha still stands. He often leaves pitchers in too long. There are many ways to lose a game. We seem to let them get out of hand when the manager sits on his hands when the pitcher has proven ineffectiveness.
I’m a Parra fan and maybe Macha is too. It’s time to move on to another plan for Manny – at least putting him on a very short leash.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Mystery pitchers
Pitcher 1 (through age 27/28 season): 440.2 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.49 BB/9, 1.81 K/BB, 1.14 HR/9, 10.5 H/9
Pitcher 2 (through age 27/28 season): 644.1 IP, 4.39 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 1.22 HR/9, 9.1 H/9
Pitcher 3 (through age 27/28 season): 870.2 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 6.33 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 1.15 HR/9, 10.2 H/9
Pitcher 4 (through first four seasons): 336.1 IP, 4.95 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 6.29 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 1.59 K/BB, 1.01 HR/9, 9.9 H/9
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
are they all lefties?
are we playing that game again?
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions
if so, someone's got to be Cliff Leeq
and someone else JdlR
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Corresponding BABIPs:
Pitcher 1: .352
Pitcher 2: .298
Pitcher 3: .321
Pitcher 4: .317
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Yeah, that's what struck me
Halladay and Carpenter ran into awesome pitching coaches at the right time of their careers who helped them with their control issues. Lee magically worked his out pitching next to Sabathia. Manny’s ripe for change, but Manny also has a lot farther to go than the other three, and he seems to be getting worse, not better. There are only three pitchers with 1000 innings and worse BB/IP than Manny; Russ Ortiz, Ron Villone, and Oliver Perez.
By his third full(ish) year, Halladay was putting up lines like these:
16 GS, 105 IP, 3.16 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 2.1 BB/9, 8.2 K/9.
SRS BSNS
440.2 IP (Parra) vs. 336.1 IP (Halladay) in the samples I compared
My point wasn’t to match their service time to the day, simply to demonstrate that it took Halladay a few hundred innings before he was any good.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
oh manny!
No matter what numbers we look at, he sucks. I’m not a baseball insider like backtocali, but every time he gets on the mound it’s borderline disaster. Maybe the opposing hitters should look at his FIP and whatever other numbers are beneficial. You can look at a turd from avery angle and its still a turd. The turd might be 25% corn, it might not have been a turd if you had eaten at Del Taco, it might have been absorbed into your body and been a great bit of nutrition and energy, but whatever it could have been; its just a pile of crap now.
He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…
Please see my original post.
There are guys who look like “turds” that turn into Cy Young winners if they have potential and excellent stuff. Sometimes it just takes a while to figure things out at the major league level.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
i know
just figured that I would put my in depth analysis on the subject into the field of play. I know that he has amazing stuff at times. I watched him pitch in Beloit and thought at that time that he would be the Brewer’s future ace. It’s unfortunate that he has drawn this much ire in such a short amount of time.
I still think he has the stuff to do it, I don’t know if he still believes that he has the stuff. Most good pitchers have the luxury of a short memory, but Manny seems like he gets a little too frustrated and tight after not getting calls or giving up a few walks / runs.
He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…
Yeah, I understand.
I just thought saying “first four seasons” implied that he made, like, 10 or 12 starts that first year, and it took him three years in MLB to put it together.
SRS BSNS
Before I look
I’m saying one’s Cliff Lee and one’s Roy Halladay. Almost positive 1 is Parra, or you managed to find an incredibly close match to his career line.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And Carpenter.
Good comparison. Parra is the worst out of four in that timeframe (but not by much), and look at those strikeouts!
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
Oh, I love this game!
Pitcher 1 is Cherry Pick McQuick
Pitcher 2 is B. LaborthePoint
Pitcher 3 is Abad Example
Pitcher 4 is…I don’t know, JDLR?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
I'm not familiar with any of those pitchers
Were they on the early-00s Brewers? There are a few years I think I mentally blocked out.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Waiting for someone to do one of these exercises
With four 27-year-old lefties with awful-looking stats who … turned out to be really awful pitchers.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Can you find me one with Parra's K/9, 400+ IP, and a career ERA even just above 5?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
I'm not a Baseball Reference ninja, so no.
But I’m guessing there are plenty of late-20-something lefties with amazing stuff and awful stats who just turned out to be not as good as everyone thought they could be.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions
There aren’t any in the history of baseball that match those critera. In fact, there are only five pitchers with a K/9 better than 8.0, 400+ IP in their career, and an ERA above 4.60, and most of those were primarily relievers.
There have only been five pitchers in the history of baseball that played >60% of their games as starters and had 400+ IP with a K/9 better than 8.0 and an ERA above 4.30. And there are only nine with an ERA above 4.00. The closest to Parra (5.29 ERA) had a 4.62 ERA.
One might argue that it’s simply because bad starters don’t ever get to pitch 400+ IP, but that’s just not true.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
When Jason Bere had a K/9 above 8.0, he was excellent (RoY, MVP votes) even with a BB/9 worse than Manny. Jay Witasick was a reliever for most of his career and never put up numbers like Parra as a starter.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Jason Bere finished his career with two seasons with sub-4 ERAs, and a career 5.12 mark.
According to B-Ref, he accumulated 0.3 career WAR, over 11 seasons.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Because outside of the seasons he was good, his peripherals were much worse than Parra’s. I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison, unless we expect Parra to stop striking people out.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Bere finished his career with 7.5 K/9, so he didn't exactly "stop striking people out."
Now that's great tasting chicken!
The point is not deserving of ridicule at all.
We can complain all day about how the Brewers have not developed good pitchers. But he just pointed out 3 of the best pitchers in baseball (Halladay and Lee might be 1 and 2 right now). And they all were not great over their first few seasons. It’s irresponsible and stupid to dump Parra right now, there’s a chance he becomes successful is all he’s saying. And maybe very successful. And if you want them to DFA Parra tomorrow so Marco Estrada can get some September starts, that’s your right. But it’s a small market team looking for stud pitchers and I don’t know why it’s so hard to see that maybe he’ll be successful down the road. Maybe he won’t. But there isn’t much to lose right now. Parra is the type of player they should be looking to acquire, not dump.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 8:00 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
Very well said, and my point exactly.
I’m not betting my life’s savings on Parra becoming the best pitcher in baseball, but the team has no better options (even if you want to use ERA, Narveson’s is better but they’re both past the point of indistinguishable suckitude) or reason to care right now, and there are loads of reasons to expect Parra to get better. Give him a chance and he may surprise some people sooner or later.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I feel like Lee and Carpenter are fair game in this discussion
but not Halladay. He was 22 years old in his first full season. He threw around 200 MLB innings before he started putting up outstanding stats, in his third full season.
Manny’s going to be 28, and he’s thrown twice that many MLB innings already.
SRS BSNS
If you want to match the innings better:
Parra: 440.2 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.49 BB/9, 1.81 K/BB, 1.14 HR/9, 10.5 H/9
Halladay: 434.1, 4.60 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 6.53 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 0.87 HR/9, 9.6 H/9
Halladay looks better, and obviously he was younger so it’s much more impressive, but my point is just that they were relatively similar over their first x hundred innings and sometimes that’s not enough to tell you a pitcher’s true potential. In fact, if you calculated the xFIP for those two lines I imagine they would be almost the same, given the correction for HR/FB%.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
And my point is that Hallday was really, really good starting in his third year
while Parra has taken another step back in his third year.
I’m not saying it’s impossible that Manny will make himself into an above-average starter. I’m just saying: I would’ve expected to see some progress at this stage in his career.
SRS BSNS
Ok, I see what you're saying. Good point.
Hallady was still slightly inconsistent in his 2002 season too though (six starts with 5+ ER), he just started mixing in complete game shutouts alongside his meltdowns. Maybe Parra is saving all of his for the end of the season :)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
Rather than taking the numbers as averages why dont we look at the trending
Halladay projects better because he started to figure out how to pitch.
Parra projects worse because people are figuring out how to kill him.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 24, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll acknowledge the rest of the season as a lost cause, so it doesn't matter if they pitch Parra (although I'd rather not watch them do it).
Really, what I want is for them to make Parra earn a spot next spring. I’ll be really, really disappointed if they just hand him a spot based on the theory he’ll improve.
I know the almighty strikeout is a strong draw, but the list of successful pitchers with WHIPs over 1.6 or BB/9 over 4.5 really isn’t very long.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Which one is Arthur Rhodes?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
The problem with parra
is not only that he walks a lot, but he’s WAY too hittable, especially when he’s throwing his fastballs. his fastballs don’t move that much and it’s causing him to be very hittable
Random question backtocali or somebody may be able to answer
Is there already an accessible database somewhere of historical Baseball America Top 100 lists and the subsequent careers of the players listed? I’m just interested in seeing the eventual career/team controlled WAR of the prospects, not somebody’s attempt at calculating surplus value or anything like that. If not, I like entering things into spreadsheets, so I think I might start my own.
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Points that need addressing.
“It’s irresponsible and stupid to dump Parra right now, there’s a chance he becomes successful is all he’s saying. And maybe very successful. And if you want them to DFA Parra tomorrow so Marco Estrada can get some September starts, that’s your right”
This is a weak strawman statement. No one is suggesting that we DFA tomorrow, and put Estrada in his spot. I think the majority “anti-Parra” platform, is that the idea that Parra “deserves” a spot in the rotation is indefensible, and Parra should be groomed as a RP. However, because our AAA starting pitching is so weak, we really don’t have a suitable option to replace Parra in the rotation— It really sucks our FO has made it so Parra cannot be replaced effectively.
In 1999, Greg Maddux had a BABIP allowed of .334. Point is, it can be extremely random. Pitchers have incredibly little control over what happens after a ball is put in play
BABip for pitchers is pretty consistent. Generally most pitchers gravitate towards that ~.300 mark these days. Jordan points out that Maddux had a .334 BABip one year but fails to point out that the following year he regressed to the league average — which is what should have been expected — Parra on the other hand, has NEVER been under .324 and has a career BABIP of .344 and currently is enjoying 2 consecutive seasons of a BABIP of .353 (according to Bref.)
Me, I’d like to see some reason why batters are able to get hits on balls in play at a historically high rate when his stuff is undeniably above-average. He does have bad control.
Manny Parra has one of the worst fastballs in MLB, and has terrible command of it. MLB hitters are shitty-pitch hitting machines. If you have ever watched MLB hitters take BP, you will notice that they don’t hit many groundballs — A MLB hitter’s ability to destroy mistake-pitching is not at all random, it gets crushed — in a nutshell there is your explanation.
But this .360 BABIP over nearly a year and a half is almost outside the realm of possibility
What is unique about Parra’s situation — is not Parra, however, it is the opportunity he has gotten to pitch while putting up bad stats. In the “Defense of Parra” article I did some queries looking at BABip & WHIP — and noticed that since 1950 the reason that Parra is such an outlier with his BABip — is that pitchers that consistently get hit as hard as Parra for the entirety of their career, did not get to pitch the ~440 innings that Parra has. This is a fact, despite feeble hand-waving attempts to the contrary. If you think about it though, it makes sense. Parra has enjoyed pitching for a team for the last 2 seasons that has absolutely no SP depth.
Comparisons to Carpenter/Lee
I find arguments that include Pitchers A-D to be utter bullshit.
First, it is simply cherry-picking, and ignoring MANY other potential comparisons that may be more apt to compare to Parra.
Second, If you actually look at the bad seasons that Carpenter and Lee had — I fail to see the merit in their comparisons… — In Carpenter’s 2000 season he was able to go 7+ innings in 13 of his starts. Parra has yet to do that this year — In Lee’s 2002 season he was able to go 6+ innings in 19 of his starts, again something Parra is clearly incapable of doing.
If Parra’s 2010 numbers were a balance of 8ip 1ER starts and 3IP 10ER starts — I could understand the call for patience — however, Parra has consistently crapped out in the 5th-6th inning this year, expending 100+ pitches, giving up BBs and hits…
Show me where Carpenter or Lee have had a season like Parra’s where they failed to continually get pulled in the 5th-6th inning.
Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog
by Fatter than Joey on Aug 24, 2010 8:28 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs
I doubt anybody is reading this anymore, so I won't take the time to respond.
But all of your points are mistaken.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
































