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Around SBN: Jeremy Lin Sets Assist High In Easy Win Over Sacramento

Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while playing out of position.

Every five days we come together to discuss the same thing, and today is no exception: Manny Parra remains terrible. Parra allowed seven runs on eight hits over six innings yesterday, allowing four walks, striking out five and giving up two solo home runs. He's posted a 6.39 ERA and allowed opposing batters to hit .295/.378/.503 against him since returning to the rotation on May 29, and the Brewers are 1-7 in his last eight appearances. But, he did have a decent FIP two years ago.

The reaction to Parra's start seems pretty fitting at this point. The crowd booed, Tom Haudricourt busted out the definition of insanity, and Adam McCalvy was speechless.

At least a change may be in the works. In his postgame news conference, Ken Macha hinted at the possibility that the Brewers will look at other rotation options in September. With that said, if the Brewers make a rotation change they might replace Chris Narveson instead: Adam McCalvy is reporting the Brewers are monitoring Narveson's innings in an effort not to push him too far beyond last season's workload.

Jaymes Langrehr of the Brewers Bar has spotted an issue with Parra's mechanics: He compares Manny's release point to Jon Garland's, and notes that Parra's release seems to fluctuate along a horizontal line.

Meanwhile, a couple of Brewers had some excellent outings in long relief this weekend: Chris Capuano and Mike McClendon kept the Brewers in Friday and Saturday's games with strong, extended outings. Capuano told Adam MCCalvy his long-term goal is to get back into the rotation, while McClendon appears to be targeting a spot in the 2011 bullpen. McClendon picked up the win on Saturday, his first as a major leaguer.

Other notes from the field:

Today's biggest news will likely come regarding Carlos Gomez: The Brewers are expected to announce a decision on their plans for him before tomorrow's game. He could be activated off the DL or optioned back to AAA until rosters expand on September 1. He isn't lacking for confidence, though: He told Adam McCalvy he wants the center field job back, and dropped the line again about only being a few multi-hit games away from hitting .260 (FanShot). At this point, he'd need eleven consecutive 2-for-4 games to reach that mark.

Ryan Braun had easily the best weekend by a Brewer, going 6-for-10 with five walks and two home runs, good for a .600/.733/1.200 line. Chris Dickerson, who apparently is Braun's new personal spokesperson, told Adam McCalvy Braun has been dealing with a sore wrist but is feeling better.

John Axford has four multi-inning saves in the last two weeks, but Anthony Witrado reports that the Brewers are not concerned about his workload. If it were up to me, he'd be done recording 4+ out saves in 2010: It's great that he has that skill and I hope to see it again in 2011, but there's no reason to be putting the extra stress on his arm in meaningless games.

Yovani Gallardo is scuffling a fair amount lately: After Friday night's disaster start, he's now posted a 5.61 ERA since July 1. The Brewers Bar wonders if the oblique injury that put Gallardo on the shelf in July is still bothering him.

It seems like Ryan Braun's defensive abilities are being called into question more frequently this season, as some notable lapses at critical times have really highlighted some of his shortcomings out there. FanGraphs' Aggregate Defensive Evaluations rated Braun near the middle of the pack among left fielders in 2009, but also noted that the Fan Scouting Report ranked Braun much higher than any other defensive metric.

How much of a difference can two games make? Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker notes that the Brewers may have reduced the Cardinals' playoff chances by as much as 20% with last week's series sweep.

As we've been expecting for a while now, LaTroy Hawkins' season is officially over. Hawkins will undergo exploratory surgery on Friday to clean up some fraying in his shoulder and check for signs of any more serious problems. The Brewers Bar has a look back at Hawkins' rough 2010.

It probably won't be the Brewers' highest profile offseason move, but a change in the third base coaching box might be long overdue. Ryan Braun was nearly tagged out between third and home on an ugly baserunning play over the weekend after what Jordan Schelling said looked like "a bad sign or conflicting signs" from third base coach Brad Fischer. Fischer also waved around Chris Capuano when he was thrown out at the plate on Friday with Corey Hart due up.

In the minors:

On power rankings: Beyond the Box Score has the Brewers holding steady at 20.

This isn't exactly a power ranking, but Carson Cistulli of FanGraphs gave the Brewers an eight out of ten (tied for fourth in all of baseball) in his new Team NERD stat, designed to identify teams that are fun to watch.

We're down to the final few nominations for the SBN Wisconsin Hall of Fame:

If all goes well, I'm hoping to open fan voting for the inaugural class one week from today.

Around baseball:

Angels: Placed shortstop Maicer Izturis on the DL with shoulder inflammation.
Athletics: Placed first baseman/outfielder Conor Jackson on the DL with a lower abdominal strain.
Cubs: Lou Piniella, scheduled to retire after the season, has instead decided to retire immediately.
Diamondbacks: Signed pitcher Mike Hampton to a minor league deal.
Dodgers: Designated infielder Juan Castro for assignment and acquired catcher Rod Barajas from the Mets for cash.
Giants: Designated infielder Matt Downs for assignment and claimed outfielder Cody Ross off waivers from the Marlins.
Marlins: Catcher Ronny Paulino has been suspended for the rest of the season after testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.
Twins: Placed pitcher Kevin Slowey (tricep discomfort), pitcher Ron Mahay (shoulder) and infielder Nick Punto (hamstring) on the DL.
Yankees: Placed Alex Rodriguez on the DL with a calf strain.

Who says losing doesn't pay? The Pirates have baseball's worst record and lowest payroll this season, but made over $34 million between 2007 and 2009, according to recently released financial reports.

While the news has been good for the Pirates off the field, the situation remains pretty bad on it. The Pirates lost their 82nd game over the weekend, clinching their 18th consecutive losing season. At this point they'd have to go 28-10 the rest of the way to avoid becoming the fourth team ever (and the first non-expansion team since 1930) to lose at least 94 games in six straight seasons, joining the 1925-30 Red Sox, 1962-67 Mets and 1969-74 Padres. (Thanks to TheJay for the info.)

The news also isn't exceptionally good for unsigned Brewer first round pick Dylan Covey: Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has a look at the unpredictable track record of players who were drafted in the first round but didn't sign.

Anyone want to rehash the debate about pitchers batting eighth? Tony La Russa and the Cardinals moved the pitcher back into the #9 spot for Saturday's game, and broke a five game losing streak. Brendan Ryan batted eighth and went 1-for-3 with an RBI double and a walk.

Jody Gerut probably should be the third Brewer on this list: Chris Jaffe of the Hardball Times lists former Brewers Chad Moeller (#5) and Charlie Moore (#9) among the ten least likely position players ever to hit for the cycle.

If you enjoyed this spring's Create-Your-Own Spring Training Story, you'll likely also enjoy The Book Blog's Generic MVP Thread.

Being a ballboy can be a rough, thankless job, but if you do it right it can also pay off. Jane Lee has the story of an A's ballboy that used a series of foul balls to land a date. (Video)

Happy birthday over the weekend to:

Now, if you'll excuse me, I think I missed a turn.

Drink up.

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Comments

Display:

Happy birthday Julio Franco!

The timeless wonder, I bet he can still play.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 10:28 AM CDT reply actions  

At 3 innings per start...

…I don’t think the Brewers need to be monitoring Narveson’s workload

by infield fly on Aug 23, 2010 10:44 AM CDT reply actions  

Not to beat the dead horse that is Manny Parra in the rotation.

But I wonder what the Brewers are trying to accomplish by running Parra out to the bump every 5 days to desecrate baseball.

I suppose that perhaps the Brewers don’t feel they have a suitable replacement for Parra — which is another head-scratcher — however, that seems to me to be destroying Parra’s value as a pitcher, and perhaps his potential as a relief pitcher.

I can’t imagine the Brewers actually think that in one of these starts he will “turn it around”.

Also, best wishes to Lou Pinella and his mom.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 10:44 AM CDT reply actions  

The difficulty in identifying Parra's (or Narveson's) replacement from within...

….is that our three highest upside prospects over the past couple years (Braddock, Rogers, and Jeffress) are all profiling as relievers. We need one of those guys to step up and into the rotation…injuries, walks, and weed notwithstanding.

by infield fly on Aug 23, 2010 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions  

It's the "who else" syndrome

They might be able to pick up Suppan in a trade. There’s just no one they’re willing to throw out there, otherwise. Capuano is really the only other option and if he hasn’t gotten a start yet, it seems like he’s not likely to get one. Macha adores having Lo9e in the ‘pen so he’s not moving away from that role.

Maybe the September call-ups, as KL notes, will get his spot. In the meantime, there’s no one else they can throw out there in his place.

Go Reds! (This signature applies only through the 2010 regular season)

by ecocd on Aug 23, 2010 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Pitcher – Starts

(2) Wolf – 26
(4) Bush – 24
(1) Gallardo – 24
(5) Narveson – 21
Parra – 16
(3) Davis – 8
Capuano – 2
Suppan – 2
Estrada – 1

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

I give Manny the sink or swim treatment.

Keep him in the rotation the rest of the year. Either he’ll show something for next year or (more likely) he’ll drown his way to a non-tender with CV.

by klwillis45 on Aug 23, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions  

Speaking of nontenders

What are the chances Inglett is on the team next year? He’s been used mostly in the OF, but he plays most IF spots too. He hits arb 1 next year, but I’m not sure how much that will amount to. $850,000?

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 23, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions  

It'll likely be around that number...

which is fine with me. Heck, he’d be worth it even if it went as high as $1M.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Aug 23, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

The funny part about all of this

Is that as bad of a year as Parra is having, he’s having just as good of a year as Randy Wolf. And something like 70% of the regular visitors are all for Wolf’s signing this past offseason.

At $8 million less in salary than Wolf, I would call Parra’s year, in relative terms, a huge success. He’s performing above what he is being paid, and as everyone has noted, there is no replacement that is going to improve the team.

The upside here is that Parra still has big time stuff. He has an upside, although at this point it is definitely not as high as it used to be.

by backtocali on Aug 23, 2010 11:09 AM CDT up reply actions  

As a starter

Wolf – 4.67 ERA
Parra – 6.19 ERA

I know, ERA sucks and all.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 23, 2010 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions  

Furthermore.

When you start using Randy Wolf 2010 as the bar for “successful season” — you probably would want to get a new bar.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

That really wasnt my point

He’s not the bar, but where’s all the outcry over Randy Wolf?

by backtocali on Aug 23, 2010 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions  

All over the place?

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

Plus, Wolf has been

relatively solid for a while now, if you take out the 12 or 13 run drubbing he was (rightfully) left in to endure.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

RANDY WOLF SUCKSD !~!~!!!!!!!@@!!!!!!!!~!

There is your outrage.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Last BCB Tracking Poll

Has an approval rate of 60% regarding the Randy Wolf signing.

He has the exact same WAR number that Manny Parra does. All I am saying is that there has been a ton of electronic ink being used to talk about how crummy Manny Parra has been, while in the end, the big time FA signing done during last year’s offseason, has been just as bad, but with no where near the blog posts regarding Wolf.

by backtocali on Aug 23, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think part of that reason.

Is that Wolf is locked into the rotation — there really isn’t much to discuss. Wolf isn’t going to AAA, to the BP, he is going to start next season in the rotation

Parra on the other hand — there is a lot of uncertainty in his future.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Also...

… Wolf has sucked for one season. Parra’s done it longer.

Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

bigger deal:

Wolf has been good/decent in the major leagues

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think a lot of it is the fact

That we’ve only been watching Wolf suck for the better part of a year, whereas we’ve been watching Manny suck for almost 2 1/2 years.

That, and Wolf has shown some real signs of improvement (or, really, regression to the mean) in the past couple of months. Manny, not so much.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Oop.

Should have read this before making my 1:23PM comment.

Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, damn that Randy Wolf and is 12 quality starts

Meanwhile, Parra hasn’t pitched past the 6th the entire season.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions  

So we can use bad stats, just not good stats like FIP?

Also, I think people are misconstruing the argument in defense of Parra. Nobody is saying he has been great, just that his peripherals indicate he is going to get better eventually.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

But

they don’t say when “eventually” is… do they? That’d be nice to know.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

It doesn't really work that way at all

the peripherals indicate, in Manny Parra’s case, that he has the “stuff” to improve his performance drastically. There is nothing that guarantees that improvement because his command might never come around.

I think Manny Parra is actually a perfect example of how many stats are misused. His BABIP this year is .360, which a lot of people would see and assume hes just been unlucky on balls in play. But his career BABIP is .351 and its never been below .332, so its more likely major league bats can make solid contact against Manny.

The bottom line is there is everything to indicate he could be a good pitcher at some point, but absolutely nothing to indicate that improvement will happen eventually.

by dtmeyers on Aug 23, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

BABIP #

Straight as a string fastball…

probably the reason for that.

by backtocali on Aug 23, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

There's plenty to indicate that Parra could be a rare player

who allows a .330+ BABIP. But there is nothing to indicate that he should have the worst BABIP since 1950. I think there’s a good chance that if he were to continue to start he’d put up a .320-.330 BABIP and 4.3 FIP. That has a lot of value. And there’s no reason to dump him in a lost year anyways.

The most extreme BABIPs for pitchers are usually .330 and .270. There’s reason to believe Parra’s norm is .330. There’s no reason to believe he’s the only pitcher since 1950 that happens to give up this many hits on balls in play.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

"There’s no reason to believe he’s the only pitcher since 1950..."

Why? Just because no one’s done it before doesn’t mean you can or should ignore that he’s doing it somehow.

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Nobody is ignoring that his BABIP is historically ridiculous, and of course it is possible that he somehow maintains it, but it seems more reasonable to me to assume that eventually any statistical outlier is going to regress back toward the norm.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, there's really no saying Parra has been better than Wolf this year...

But. Quality starts is a terrible stat. Terrible.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Or, the league has a combined .853 OPS against him

IE, he turns every hitter in the lineup, including the pitcher spot, into Ryan Braun.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 12:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Manny Parra

Left handed hitters have a .358 Average and a 1.059 OPS against him! Do you know how bad that is for a left handed pitcher?

For reference the following players have these numbers for their careers:
ARod’s: .303 /.958
Lord Pujols’: .332 /1.051
Braun: .306/.914

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not sure where to reply with this, but:

Taking out the epic disaster (12 ER) start, Randy Wolf’s ERA this year is 4.14, and 2.88 over his last 10 starts.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

This was just the first thing I thought of

Taking the year as a whole: Wolf has been decent.
with a short memory Wolf has been good.

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 23, 2010 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Sure

Which one of manny’s starts would you like me to take out?

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not a fair comparison

I only took out one of Wolf’s bad ones.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

So ...

all of his starts? :)

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here

Ever to date, excluding his “worst start”: 5.06 ERA

Last 10 starts: 7.45 ERA

Last 10 starts, excluding his worst start: 6.34 ERA

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

How about xFIP?

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

xFIP – the only stat you’re allowed to use when evaluating Manny Parra (unless his FIP is good).

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 23, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Says you.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I prefer tRA

tell me why that’s not as good.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because xFIP is better over the short-term, and also makes more sense to use if you’re projecting how good we should expect somebody to be in the long-term.

But, there’s nothing wrong with tRA/tERA either, fair enough.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Are we projecting long term anymore?

Parra’s FIP was good in 2008, doesn’t that mean he should be good now?

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, good.

Because he’s not.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

It means he's capable of what he did in 2008

Unless there has been some sort of irreversible change. HIs stuff is about the same so I don’t see why not.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

tRA is the best in theory

But until batted ball classifications are perfected I don’t trust it as more than a range of maybe .3 runs either way.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

So Parra's between

5.38 and 5.98 this season as a starting pitcher?

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

You're going off statcorner?

Note that that number is runs/9, not an ERA scale. You have to multiply by .92 to get the ERA scale. It’s on Fangraphs, Parra’s at 4.87 so I’d be ok with saying his skill has been between 4.57 and 5.17 this year. Not good, but not disaster either. That’s a capable bottom of the rotation starter.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

But 5.68 * .92 = 5.22

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 2:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

Different classifications, I think

That’s the reason for the range. 5.22 and 4.87 from the same stat. That was my reason for saying I’d rather use FIP at this point, because there’s an inconsistency with how the balls are classified and I think it’s more useful as an evaluation tool with a range than as an exact number representing skill.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

Off topic, sort of

But since we’re talking about stat issues, I’m leery of FanGraphs because they calculate BABIP strangely. Who knows what they do to their other numbers.

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Then show me

Where do they explain the difference between their BABIP and the BABIP formula found on baseball-reference and wikipedia, etc.?

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions  

Link.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Thank you.

Pity you have to dig through their forums. Seems like something they’d put in their glossary.

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I prefer sabermetrics

And I still think Manny Parra is awful. I don’t know how you can be successful with BB/9 over 4.5.

In the link that backtocali posted earlier you can see that none of Manny’s rate state are really outside a reasonable deviation from his established norms. Which seems to say that I can reasonably say that Manny Parra will continue to suck this year and next.

Now maybe his uptick in K/9 is real, maybe he decreases his BB/9 further under Peterson. But I don’t see his BABIP dropping below .320, and with his norms in GB % and HR/FB% I don’t see him being a more than mediocre pitcher at best.

I’m not sure thats worth hoping for in the future and having to watch his garbage every fifth day in the meantime.

by MGT on Aug 23, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

It took plenty of elite pitchers more than three partial seasons to reach their “established norms” and put everything together. Parra has a history of much better control, and his current BABIP and lack of success with his K/9 is unprecedentedly bad. Unless you think Parra is going to be a historical outlier (by a large margin), there’s every reason to expect him to turn things around in the near future.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Define the near future

if it’s not next season, then it’s not worth it.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

In the last 3 years he has not posted a BB/9 under 4. Not a great history of better control.

by MGT on Aug 23, 2010 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

He had basically 1 good year in AA. And from that one year we are supposed to hold out hope that he can find that form from 4 years ago again.

Personally, I think his stats show that he won’t find that again in his time left in a Brewer uniform, whether that is 2 months or 3 years.

by MGT on Aug 23, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

"Parra has a history of much better control"

When? His career major league BB/9 is 4.5 and this year he is at 4.7. Plenty of pitchers have seen their BB/9 increase from the minors to the majors.

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I’m not suggesting that we should expect him to maintain his minor league BB/9 in the majors, but he showed good enough control in the minors (over more innings) that we should be suspicious of a BB/9 near 5.0 in the majors.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Speaking of control

Parra has thrown more wild pitches in his career than Wolf

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

How long until that suspicion goes away?

If he’s keeps his rotation spot then by this time next year he’ll have more major league innings than minor league innings. Even setting aside the fact I think what he did as 20 year old in the Midwest League has no bearing on what he’s doing now, I don’t see how he’s going to flip a switch he hasn’t found in 3+ years in the majors and go from 4.5 to 3.5 BB/9.

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Even with a walks rate between 4 and 4.5

He strikes out enough guys that he is able to be successful. He was successful with a lot of walks in 2008. A pitcher that can put up a 4.4 over 160 innings has a lot of value. So even if he does keep up his current rate of walks, he can still be valuable if that damn BABIP goes down.

Not saying he should be given a starting spot next year right off the bat. But there’s no reason to DFA him or anything. They could make another annual Looper/Davis type pickup, but I’d bet on Parra being about the same for cheaper.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

What's the stat for

the manager leaves him in the game too fricking long?

Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD

by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 7:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

As FtJ pointed out recently:

the reason Parra is going to be a statistical outlier is because very few pitchers have been given the opportunity to pitch so poorly for so long.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:29 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

This really is not true and I can find a lot of examples of truly horrible pitchers who have pitched for a long time

And still managed to put up a much lower BABIP than Manny Parra.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Therein lies his point

Basically everyone in the neighborhood of Parra’s BABIP was given a quick hook. Parra has not. Everyone on your list of “truly horrible pitchers” was allowed to pitch that long probably in part to that fact that they weren’t giving up hits at the insane rate the Parra does. If they had comparable BABIP to Parra’s, they would not have pitched that many innings

Towlieppan: "You wanna throw high?"

by GoGregGo on Aug 23, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's just not true

Like look at post-2001 Jose Lima. I’m at a loss for terrible pitchers right now but I just looked up a few that are absolutely horrid, bad ERAs and bad FIPs, and they still manage to put up BABIPs in the range of .280 to .320 and have terrible season with a BABIP under .300. BABIP has little to do with pitching skill. Some, but not much at all.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think you're arguing the same argument as the rest of those here

People are saying that his BABIP is historically bad. And that it might be something that he’s doing. Other pitchers who have had as bad of a BABIP haven’t been given that long of an opportunity.

The argument is not that all crappy pitchers have bad BABIP, just that if you have a bad BABIP, you’re probably a crappy pitcher. And most crappy pitchers (not all: see Lima and Kip Wells) are given a short leash.

Most bad pitchers are bad because of other reasons that aren’t reflected in BABIP. Perhaps 1 in 100 (or so) are bad due to BABIP and another couple coincidentally have below average BABIP. If, say, of those 100 bad pitchers, 95 don’t get an opportunity to play much (because they suck), the chances that the one with the bad BABIP sticks around are pretty damned tiny.

My personal slant on this:
BABIP isn’t the only possible contributor to bad, but it may very well be one. High BABIP may actually result in old timey managers getting rid of players earlier in development in olden days (opponents got a bunch of hits off of him, he must be doing something wrong). Perhaps it’s only because of sabermetrics and this concept of luck associated with a pitcher’s BABIP that Parra has been given as much chance as he has. Without sabermetrics, Parra might be roadkill by now.

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

It's just not true. At all. It's a team stat. Amount of runs scored,

prorated out to 9 innings, while a particular pitcher is on the mound. Excluding runs that would have hypothetically not scored had a defender made a play on a ball he touched, as judged by a scorer.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

I wasn't talking about ERA.

I was talking about this focus on stats that purportedly describe how Manny SHOULD be pitching, while disregarding what he’s actually doing on the field.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's understandable, but there is no perfect pitching stat, unfortunately

So if you take into account things he can control: strikeouts, walks, groundballs, and home runs allowed, you can get a very good idea of how good of a pitcher he is. Stats like that are really just scaled to ERA because people know how to use it and judge it.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

And when you watch him put down the first two hitters in an inning ...

and then walk Luis Freakin’ Durango, give up a hit to the opposing pitcher, a run-scoring single to David Eckstein, and a two-RBI double to the Corpse of Miguel Tejada, you find it very hard to believe that he could ever be an above-average Major League pitcher.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

So you can give up three runs on six hits in an inning

And as long as you strike out three guys you’re a gem. It bothers me that people say that just because defense plays some part in hits that all of it needs to be discounted – it’s crap. When McGehee hits a liner over the shortstop’s head it’s not anyone’s fault but the pitcher’s, it’s not the shortstop’s responsibility to be 12 feet tall.

Next game actually put your hypothesis to the test. When someone gets a hit, judge whether Griffey Jr. or Ozzie Smith or Brooks Robinson could have hauled it in, or if it was a legitimate hit. I’m guessing you’ll probably wonder about one or two hits the whole game, but you’ll see one or two great plays by someone too.

Almost all hits are determined coming off the bat.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

Whatever the cause, it seems like Manny just leaves too many gigantic beach balls right in the middle of the plate, and batters hit the shit out of it.

by warwick5s on Aug 23, 2010 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

In 1998, Greg Maddux had a BABIP allowed of .272.
In 1999, Greg Maddux had a BABIP allowed of .334.

Point is, it can be extremely random. Pitchers have incredibly little control over what happens after a ball is put in play. I could link you about 100 different studies or mail you The Book. It’s an established fact.

You can make up a situation like that to try to prove your point but the truth is this. Strikeouts and walks (and homers and groundballs) are an incredibly good proxy for pitching skill. You can just about judge any pitcher’s ERA in history (with a large enough sample of innings) by looking at those 4 numbers. It’s nearly foolproof. If you think Manny Parra is the statistical anamoly, one of maybe like 3 pitchers since 1950 who don’t fit that mold, thats your initiative. Me, I’d like to see some reason why batters are able to get hits on balls in play at a historically high rate when his stuff is undeniably above-average. He does have bad control. But this .360 BABIP over nearly a year and a half is almost outside the realm of possibility. I’ll take my chances that it will regress toward the mean, like everything in statistics always does. Maybe he’s a .330/.340 BABIP pitcher, but that’s ok.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I think Parra’s at .342 BABIP as a starter this year.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

His stuff is undeniably above average

except when he throws an arrow straight fastball or hangs a breaking ball right down the middle of the plate. His best stuff is awesome, but it’s so inconsistent.

Is he tipping pitches? Does he have a mechanical issue that makes his “stuff” more inconsistent than most?

by warwick5s on Aug 23, 2010 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

And I agree that the Old Vegas “mental weakness” angle is bullshit, but is it just a fatigue thing?

by warwick5s on Aug 23, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the real problem re: the "mental weakness" thing

is that too many different issues — ranging from depression to anxiety to lack of focus as the game continues to low baseball IQ — are being lumped together under that singular heading.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's the $100MM question, literally

Figure out Manny’s problem and you’ve got a #2 pitcher for eight years.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

How about it?

You do that one. I don’t know the formula off the top of my head, so I can’t do quick and dirty calculations with it.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Luckily?

both Wolf and Parra’s worst starts have been in their last 10 games, so it’s a fair comparison.

Although, Manny’s ETD stats above include his time as a reliever. Taking those out:

as a starter: 6.44 ever to date, 5.70 ever to date (removing worst start).

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

No, but it produces a pretty decent generalization.

It shouldn’t be used in a vacuum, but if you see a guy with a 5.50 ERA in decent sample size, odds are he’s not very good.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I think you mean runs better.

Because Yovani, as good as he is, isn’t quite worth 33.6 wins as a starting pitcher.

by NoahJ on Aug 23, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

There is no way in Heaven or Earth

That I could call Parra’s season a huge success.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 11:32 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

At this point...

Selling Parra’s upside would be like selling “weight-loss” as an upside to a heroin addiction.

Taking shallowness to new depths -- FtJ's blog

by Fatter than Joey on Aug 23, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions  

Ok, come on.

Read that again and tell me calling Parra’s season “a huge success” isn’t completely ridiculous.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe "huge" isnt the right word

But they are getting more than they are paying for.

That’s a success. The problem just comes out of how theyve spent their other money.

by backtocali on Aug 23, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think you mean "logic".

Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

But that assumes your time is valued at less then 1 penny.

I assume his point is that Parra is worth more then we pay currently, while not a good pitcher, he’s currently valued right on the money. As soon as he gets a raise though.. things will change and then the numbers say to dump em.

I’m a “let Parra pitch out the season” guy, but he’s starting to get on me. At some point we just have to eat the losses and trade him for some junk.

by SgtClueLs on Aug 23, 2010 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

It's probably worth noting somewhere

that the entirety of his positive value this year is in his 24IP as a reliever, and that he has been horrendous as a starter. That breakdown at FanGraphs you provided above isolates that. And it makes sense, when he starts, I would image his ERA in the first 3 innings is reasonable, but he collapses after the 4th or 5th inning as a result of his pitch count and/or going through the order another time. He is effective as a reliever that can go multiple innings, but every start he makes is a reason DM cannot effectively build a successful roster.

by dtmeyers on Aug 23, 2010 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

on a parra-related note

that brewers bar article shows his release points as spread horizontally… does parra change his position on the rubber? would that be adjusted for in the chart?

by Capt Science on Aug 23, 2010 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions  

And I didn't see this, but yes

It’s a very possible explanation.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions  

I, for one...

Will never change my position on the rubber. You always ALWAYS use one. (Come on, that joke kills in middle schools)

by Ozzie1284 on Aug 23, 2010 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

only because middle school kids will laugh at everything

because they don’t want to be the one that doesn’t get it.

that being said, what the hell?

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

The end of the Riske era

66 IP and 5.40 ERA over 3 years, in which he was paid $13 million.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 23, 2010 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions  

But think of all the wonderful punning...

… that occurred before he got hurt. That alone was worth at least $50.

Like I needed another reason to hate diabetes.

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 23, 2010 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I’m to lazy to look it up, but I wonder how much each pitch cost.

by SgtClueLs on Aug 23, 2010 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions  

$17,955.80

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions  

Thanks.

Wish I could be paid that for every help ticket I close.

by SgtClueLs on Aug 23, 2010 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions  

Parra's mechanics do seem messed up

but the Brewers bar graph does little to prove that. We’ve been through that issue before, and pitchers (especially lefties) often vary their spot on the pitching rubber based on the batter. That can make the horizontal line of varying release points if there’s a few inches of difference between where the pitcher is starting on the rubber.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 11:36 AM CDT reply actions  

so, Riske was released and Hawkins is going to be on the rest-of-the-season DL

so if Gomez is going to be brought up because of Riske, then who’s gonna be brought up because of Hawkins?

by ilikeburritos on Aug 23, 2010 11:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Huh?

Hawkins is already on the DL, and has already been replaced.

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions  

Could move him to the 60 day

And bring in someone from outside the org.

by klwillis45 on Aug 23, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions  

Braden Looper?

http://www.twitter.com/mykenk

by Mykenk on Aug 23, 2010 11:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Funny

I got Party Suite tickets last night. (Thanks Liz!) And while sipping on free beer and eating free food I noticed that two people in the suite over had Looper jersey Ts.

I guess he’s got family still living in town.

by SgtClueLs on Aug 23, 2010 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

Or...

People still wear Brewers t-shirts even after the player is no longer on the team. I still see Hardy t-shirts.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Aug 23, 2010 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

I still wear my Sabathia shirt

I paid good money for that shirt*

*Actually, I got it on clearance after the season was over.

by drezdn on Aug 23, 2010 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure that was JAMOOL

I liked last year when they demoted Hardy and brought up Esky, and somebody had a Hardy jersey on that said “X3” next to the 7

http://www.mlbsoup.com

by tcyoung on Aug 23, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know

but Kohl’s still had a few left in their clearance section when I was there a week ago. There were also Gamel ones.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Aug 23, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

Retro

When he goes into the HOF wearing a Brewers cap. :)

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Aug 23, 2010 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

I could go for that

he’d be part of a matched set with Kameron Loe.

by morineko on Aug 23, 2010 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

A new Coffey?

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

now how am I going to play cowboy?

all Sesame Street references aside, the Brewers can ride Loe until he breaks throw Inglett out there again go with 11 pitchers until 9/1. Besides, McClendon specializes in multi-inning appearances.

by morineko on Aug 23, 2010 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

MLB article on unsigned first rounders

it seems the rate of hits to misses is about the same as for an actual signed first rounder. So, what’s the big deal?

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 11:40 AM CDT reply actions  

The big deal is on their end of the deal

If their chances are no better after the come back, then why are they risking injury in college ball, for instance? Take the money now and develop through the minor leagues instead of college. It depends upon how seriously you take the “college” part of playing “college baseball.”

Go Reds! (This signature applies only through the 2010 regular season)

by ecocd on Aug 23, 2010 1:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

*sigh*

maybe the Brewers would have been better off if they signed AJ Cole?

by ilikeburritos on Aug 23, 2010 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Ok, here's an example of why I don't like FIP

People who want to use fielding-independent pitching want to eliminate any statistics that are outside the control of the pitcher: Home Runs, Strikeouts, and Walks. I understand that. But in your desire to create a more objective pitching stat, have you created an even more flawed one?

FIP is basically (HR*13 + 3*BB – 2*K) / IP.

That might be a fairly balanced way of figuring a pitcher’s effectiveness…. if they all faced the same hitters. Unfortunately, we don’t all play the same number of games against each team. Some pitchers must suffer through the American League East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox, and some pitchers get a vacation in the AL West with the anemic Mariners and Athletics.

Talk about a margin of error – if you calculate a division’s FIP from their offensive totals you get:
AL East: 1.02
AL Cent: 0.78
AL West: 0.56
NL East: 0.64
NL Cent: 0.64
NL West: 0.64

Correct me if I’m wrong on the FIP calculation, because I don’t use it, but I’m pretty sure that pitching in a division where your average hitter is 83% more FIP-potent is going to skew your numbers a little more than whether your shortstop is quite as slick a fielder as someone else’s, don’t you think? Or is FIP equalized on a game by game basis against the value of the hitters faced?

Go ahead, chew me up if I deserve it. I want to know the answers.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 3:38 PM CDT reply actions  

It's adjusted for league for sure.
(HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor that scales FIP to match league average ERA for a given season and league.

Actually, I highly recommend reading this whole piece. Doesn’t hurt to know more. I learn stuff on these stats every day.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

And not to beat a dead horse, but

You can make the EXACT same argument for ERA. Pitchers facing more better-hitting teams (e.g., pitcher’s in the AL East) tend to give up more runs, have higher ERAs, etc., etc. Granted, it doesn’t entirely resolve the issue just to say “Same thing with ERA, so there,” but this isn’t a new problem that FIP creates, it’s a problem that has always existed.

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Aug 23, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Melvin outrighted Riske

so this thread would veer away from its unhealthy obsession on “the value of Manny Parra.”

If so, Melvin gets my “yes” vote on Kyle’s poll.

Parra is not the first, nor the last, pitcher with potential that Brewer management has messed up. I just wish for this year that Parra stays in the rotation AND Macha has the sense to remove him when he walks two runners in an inning.

Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD

by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 3:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Brewer management messed up? Any specific reason why?

I think he is better utlized in the bullpen as he has the most trouble facing the order the second and third time around. Depending on how much he costs, I don’t see the big problem with putting him in the bullpen next year. He has potential there, and could fill in and spot start if needed.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Aug 23, 2010 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

My argument is with Macha's in-game ineptitude.

Fine, put Parra in the pen. Start McClendon. He’s started all year in the minors. I could understand and endorse that roster move, as a fan.

BUT if Parra continues to start, I’m just saying we’ve been seeing Manny implode with the manager keeping in there trying to finish an inning (when the whole world knows the well for Manny is EMPTY).

Parra has his problems dealing with the ups and downs of a game, but there is no excuse for Macha, leaving his pitchers, esp Bush and Parra, in too long. That’s ultimately what got Ned canned.

Macha should suffer the same end if he keeps staring out at the field immobilized when Crew fandom knows the pitcher is done.

Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD

by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

McClendon started three games in the minors, fwiw

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

How'd he do?

Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD

by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think his point is

3 starts does not a starter make, especially to say “all year”

I think you mean loe or cappy started “all year” in the minors, but admittedly they had short seasons in the minors and may have had a couple of pen appearances (cappy esp.)

by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 23, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Loe, not McClendon. My mistake.

The Brewers drafted McClendon as a starter acc to Baseball Reference in 2006. Since 2008, he has been used almost exclusively as a middle reliever, garnering the occasional close opportunity.

I took my assumption from something BA or Rock said during a recent game. My mistake.

Kameron Loe made 10 appearances for Nashville before being brought up – all starts. In those 10 starts, he accumulated 62 innings, on average pitching into the 7th inning.

I saw Loe start against the Reds late in spring training in Goodyear. He was in command while on the mound. Certainly he raised expectations.

I think my point about Macha still stands. He often leaves pitchers in too long. There are many ways to lose a game. We seem to let them get out of hand when the manager sits on his hands when the pitcher has proven ineffectiveness.

I’m a Parra fan and maybe Macha is too. It’s time to move on to another plan for Manny – at least putting him on a very short leash.

Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD

by heybatterbatter on Aug 23, 2010 6:32 PM CDT up reply actions  

Mystery pitchers

Pitcher 1 (through age 27/28 season): 440.2 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.49 BB/9, 1.81 K/BB, 1.14 HR/9, 10.5 H/9

Pitcher 2 (through age 27/28 season): 644.1 IP, 4.39 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.21 K/BB, 1.22 HR/9, 9.1 H/9

Pitcher 3 (through age 27/28 season): 870.2 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 6.33 K/9, 3.42 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 1.15 HR/9, 10.2 H/9

Pitcher 4 (through first four seasons): 336.1 IP, 4.95 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 6.29 K/9, 3.96 BB/9, 1.59 K/BB, 1.01 HR/9, 9.9 H/9

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 5:15 PM CDT reply actions  

Corresponding BABIPs:

Pitcher 1: .352
Pitcher 2: .298
Pitcher 3: .321
Pitcher 4: .317

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions  

Of course...

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that's what struck me

Halladay and Carpenter ran into awesome pitching coaches at the right time of their careers who helped them with their control issues. Lee magically worked his out pitching next to Sabathia. Manny’s ripe for change, but Manny also has a lot farther to go than the other three, and he seems to be getting worse, not better. There are only three pitchers with 1000 innings and worse BB/IP than Manny; Russ Ortiz, Ron Villone, and Oliver Perez.

by nullacct on Aug 23, 2010 7:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

1 – Manny Parra
2 – Cliff Lee
3 – Chris Carpenter
4 – Roy Halladay

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

440.2 IP (Parra) vs. 336.1 IP (Halladay) in the samples I compared

My point wasn’t to match their service time to the day, simply to demonstrate that it took Halladay a few hundred innings before he was any good.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions  

oh manny!

No matter what numbers we look at, he sucks. I’m not a baseball insider like backtocali, but every time he gets on the mound it’s borderline disaster. Maybe the opposing hitters should look at his FIP and whatever other numbers are beneficial. You can look at a turd from avery angle and its still a turd. The turd might be 25% corn, it might not have been a turd if you had eaten at Del Taco, it might have been absorbed into your body and been a great bit of nutrition and energy, but whatever it could have been; its just a pile of crap now.

He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…

by jarlbartar on Aug 23, 2010 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

Please see my original post.

There are guys who look like “turds” that turn into Cy Young winners if they have potential and excellent stuff. Sometimes it just takes a while to figure things out at the major league level.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

i know

just figured that I would put my in depth analysis on the subject into the field of play. I know that he has amazing stuff at times. I watched him pitch in Beloit and thought at that time that he would be the Brewer’s future ace. It’s unfortunate that he has drawn this much ire in such a short amount of time.
I still think he has the stuff to do it, I don’t know if he still believes that he has the stuff. Most good pitchers have the luxury of a short memory, but Manny seems like he gets a little too frustrated and tight after not getting calls or giving up a few walks / runs.

He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…

by jarlbartar on Aug 23, 2010 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I understand.

I just thought saying “first four seasons” implied that he made, like, 10 or 12 starts that first year, and it took him three years in MLB to put it together.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

Before I look

I’m saying one’s Cliff Lee and one’s Roy Halladay. Almost positive 1 is Parra, or you managed to find an incredibly close match to his career line.

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

And Carpenter.

Good comparison. Parra is the worst out of four in that timeframe (but not by much), and look at those strikeouts!

E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).

by Jordan M on Aug 23, 2010 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not familiar with any of those pitchers

Were they on the early-00s Brewers? There are a few years I think I mentally blocked out.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 7:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

Waiting for someone to do one of these exercises

With four 27-year-old lefties with awful-looking stats who … turned out to be really awful pitchers.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 7:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not a Baseball Reference ninja, so no.

But I’m guessing there are plenty of late-20-something lefties with amazing stuff and awful stats who just turned out to be not as good as everyone thought they could be.

by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 23, 2010 8:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

There aren’t any in the history of baseball that match those critera. In fact, there are only five pitchers with a K/9 better than 8.0, 400+ IP in their career, and an ERA above 4.60, and most of those were primarily relievers.

There have only been five pitchers in the history of baseball that played >60% of their games as starters and had 400+ IP with a K/9 better than 8.0 and an ERA above 4.30. And there are only nine with an ERA above 4.00. The closest to Parra (5.29 ERA) had a 4.62 ERA.

One might argue that it’s simply because bad starters don’t ever get to pitch 400+ IP, but that’s just not true.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

When Jason Bere had a K/9 above 8.0, he was excellent (RoY, MVP votes) even with a BB/9 worse than Manny. Jay Witasick was a reliever for most of his career and never put up numbers like Parra as a starter.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 8:55 PM CDT up reply actions  

Jason Bere finished his career with two seasons with sub-4 ERAs, and a career 5.12 mark.

According to B-Ref, he accumulated 0.3 career WAR, over 11 seasons.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Because outside of the seasons he was good, his peripherals were much worse than Parra’s. I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison, unless we expect Parra to stop striking people out.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yes, but he accumulated -7.3 WAR in the more numerous seasons in which he didn’t have a K/9 above 7.0, while his BB/9 mostly stayed between 5.0-6.0/9. In the three seasons he had a K/9 comparable to Parra, he was worth +6.4 WAR

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Very well said, and my point exactly.

I’m not betting my life’s savings on Parra becoming the best pitcher in baseball, but the team has no better options (even if you want to use ERA, Narveson’s is better but they’re both past the point of indistinguishable suckitude) or reason to care right now, and there are loads of reasons to expect Parra to get better. Give him a chance and he may surprise some people sooner or later.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 8:15 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I feel like Lee and Carpenter are fair game in this discussion

but not Halladay. He was 22 years old in his first full season. He threw around 200 MLB innings before he started putting up outstanding stats, in his third full season.

Manny’s going to be 28, and he’s thrown twice that many MLB innings already.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions  

If you want to match the innings better:

Parra: 440.2 IP, 5.29 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 8.15 K/9, 4.49 BB/9, 1.81 K/BB, 1.14 HR/9, 10.5 H/9
Halladay: 434.1, 4.60 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 6.53 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB, 0.87 HR/9, 9.6 H/9

Halladay looks better, and obviously he was younger so it’s much more impressive, but my point is just that they were relatively similar over their first x hundred innings and sometimes that’s not enough to tell you a pitcher’s true potential. In fact, if you calculated the xFIP for those two lines I imagine they would be almost the same, given the correction for HR/FB%.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 8:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

And my point is that Hallday was really, really good starting in his third year

while Parra has taken another step back in his third year.

I’m not saying it’s impossible that Manny will make himself into an above-average starter. I’m just saying: I would’ve expected to see some progress at this stage in his career.

SRS BSNS

by Rubie Q on Aug 23, 2010 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions  

Ok, I see what you're saying. Good point.

Hallady was still slightly inconsistent in his 2002 season too though (six starts with 5+ ER), he just started mixing in complete game shutouts alongside his meltdowns. Maybe Parra is saving all of his for the end of the season :)

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

Rather than taking the numbers as averages why dont we look at the trending

Halladay projects better because he started to figure out how to pitch.
Parra projects worse because people are figuring out how to kill him.

by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 24, 2010 8:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'll acknowledge the rest of the season as a lost cause, so it doesn't matter if they pitch Parra (although I'd rather not watch them do it).

Really, what I want is for them to make Parra earn a spot next spring. I’ll be really, really disappointed if they just hand him a spot based on the theory he’ll improve.

I know the almighty strikeout is a strong draw, but the list of successful pitchers with WHIPs over 1.6 or BB/9 over 4.5 really isn’t very long.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Aug 23, 2010 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

Which one is Arthur Rhodes?

Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.

by TheJay on Aug 23, 2010 10:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

The problem with parra

is not only that he walks a lot, but he’s WAY too hittable, especially when he’s throwing his fastballs. his fastballs don’t move that much and it’s causing him to be very hittable

by ilikeburritos on Aug 23, 2010 9:09 PM CDT reply actions  

Random question backtocali or somebody may be able to answer

Is there already an accessible database somewhere of historical Baseball America Top 100 lists and the subsequent careers of the players listed? I’m just interested in seeing the eventual career/team controlled WAR of the prospects, not somebody’s attempt at calculating surplus value or anything like that. If not, I like entering things into spreadsheets, so I think I might start my own.

Ryan Braun: He loves it.

by SRB on Aug 23, 2010 10:04 PM CDT reply actions  

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