Brewers 8, Pirates 7 (11 innings)
by NoahJ on Aug 28, 2010 10:56 PM CDT
in WPA Game Recaps
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W: Loe (3-3)
L: Ledezma (0-1)
HR: Fielder (28), Lucroy (4), Tabata (4), Snyder (13), Walker (6)
Win Expectancy
SBNation Coverage
I didn't see this game because it was on WMLW, a station I don't get, and I wasn't really able to listen to it, either, because I was hanging out with a couple friends. But this was apparently a slugfest as the two teams combined for 5 HR. The Brewers pulled out a win in extras thanks to a walk off single by Lorenzo Cain, knocking in Ryan Braun. This seems like it would have been a pretty awesome game to watch.
Serious question: Why does Fangraphs win expectancy graph always start at 50%? Shouldn't the better team start out with a better chance of winning right off the bat? Like if you were betting on a game, the odds would be on one team to outplay the other. Does anyone know the reason for that?
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I was at the game, so my typical highlight fashion.
1. Walking into the game, there was a fan with a Capellan jersey shirt. I was WTF’ing.
2. The fans were great as usual. I am thankful for baseball in Milwaukee, and it seems like many others share that. 37,000+ even though we are losing.
3. Sat in the 200’s this time down the first base line. Got a Braunie foul ball! YEAAAAHH. It was a laser beam too.
4. Small sample size, but I noticed there was a lot of women there. I guess that is a good thing. :)
5. The Pirates seemed to love to throw to bags instead of pitching. I was amazed at the amount of throwovers they used. When Gomez reached, I kind of expected them to throw over a bit. When Casey McGehee reached and took his minuscule lead, they threw over a ton. Just why? Seriously wtf….
6. People stayed until the end. I was pretty amazed at how many fans were there until the very end. Golf clap for us Milwaukee fans :D
by Bush League All Star on Aug 28, 2010 11:43 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Women at the game
This summer, the Milwaukee Brewers are giving women statewide the opportunity to earn their PHD in baseball. On Saturday, August 28th, ladies of all ages are invited to experience Brewers Baseball Basics for Women, presented by Associated Bank! Guests will enjoy a fun, daylong event beginning at 9:00 am with the Baseball Basics clinic, followed by an entertaining afternoon of tailgating and baseball.
Fangraphs WP
WE (win expectancy): The percent chance a particular team will win based on the score, inning, outs, runners on base, and the run environment.
I believe Fangraphs formula for win-probability omits any consideration of player or team. For example, loading the bases for Albert Pujols in a tie game would have the same effect as loading the bases for Chris Carpenter. I think “run environment” is a reference to park factors.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
In that case, I wonder if they are working on improving it.
I would imagine that the odds would vary significantly in the two situations that you laid out.
that would screw with the WPA of players though
bases loaded 2 outs, a strikeout affects the team’s ability to win almost identically (depends a bit I guess on how many more innings there are and what part of the order is due up, but I digress).
by PagsBrewCrew on Aug 29, 2010 6:04 AM CDT up reply actions
They'd definitely vary
but I’m not sure it’d be quantifiable. I could be wrong, but I think the WPA calculations are based on transition and expectancy matrices developed over a pretty large (10+ year) sample size, to the point where they’re somewhat converged, and somwhat stabilized. Taking batter ability into play would create the need for another “n” transition matrices, where “n” is the number of players. Hell, if you’re going to do that, you should take pitcher ability into account too, which would lead to “n” * “m” additionally required matrices, where “m” is the number of pitchers. Since there’s very few people that have been around in the league long enough to quantify their probability of performing in a given situation with any credibility, I think the Fangraphs approach is the best it’s going to be. The addition of any player specific calculations would be a massive undertaking.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
by Mykenk on Aug 29, 2010 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cain is the man!
His swing as a little old school twang to it, I think.
Goooooo-mez!
by Drew C on Aug 29, 2010 8:19 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
This game tied the team's largest comeback of the year
They were down by 4 and won, just like on July 23 against Washington.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Does anyone know what is going on with Dave Bush? Is he pitching today?
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
Brewers win but so do Astros so MN only drops one game
Magic number for 3rd place is now 31 games we could get in to the Twenties with a Brewers win and Astros loss today Huzzah
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
On another note Thank the FSM for the Pirates
they are the Brewers 2:30am Sure thing girl ;)
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
Update
I still love Cain.
"I've been banging a lot of bratwurst lately".
Uecker during the 8th inning of his first game back
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 1:03 PM CST)
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
