Cubs 15, Brewers 3
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 4, 2010 4:30 PM CDT
in WPA Game Recaps
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PrintW: Ryan Dempster (9-8)
L: Manny Parra (3-9)
HR: Tyler Colvin (17), Aramis Ramirez (16), Geovany Soto (15), Blake DeWitt (2)
MVP: Corey Hart (+.194)
LVP: Who do you think? (-.332)
Meltdown Expectancy Graph and Star of the Game Voting
SB Nation Coverage
If you've seen Manny Parra pitch, you've probably seen this before.
Parra was cruising along through five innings today, allowing a solo home run to Tyler Colvin but little else until suddenly and violently losing it in the sixth, allowing five runs to cross the plate and dropping the Brewer chances of winning this game from 68 percent to six.
The game turned on a two-out, hanging 0-2 slider (thanks sjlee) to Blake DeWitt, which he served into left field to tie the game at 3. After allowing another single to Jeff Baker to give the Cubs the lead Parra was pulled in favor of Todd Coffey, who allowed the home run to Aramis Ramirez that removed all doubt. Parra, Coffey, LaTroy Hawkins, David Riske and Chris Capuano combined to allow fourteen unanswered runs in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings.
With six earned runs allowed today in 5.2 innings, Parra raised his ERA to 5.67 on the season and 8.29 over his last seven starts. He's quickly closing in on numbers as bad as last year's.
Just like after all of Parra's other rough performances, someone is certain to pop up in the comments or on another site to stress patience and remind us that Jorge de la Rosa had a decent season once after five terrible major league seasons. If you're one of those people, congratulations on keeping the faith. I'm definitely not with you, though. At this point, I see any future starts given to Parra as a mistake.
Also, after Cub pitchers hit Brewers with pitches 13 times this season, LaTroy Hawkins grazed Alfonso Soriano's jersey with a fastball in the seventh (the second time a Brewer has hit a Cub) and both he and Ken Macha were ejected, despite the fact that no warnings had been issued and none of the Cubs who hit Brewers in the series were tossed. The state of umpiring in Major League Baseball is a terrible joke.
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I guess Manny belongs in the pen
No matter how great of contact Escobar has, he’s still only got warning track power – no matter how good Manny is throwing he runs out of “stuff” after four innings.
by nullacct on Aug 4, 2010 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Never have a wanted so badly for a team to just go postal on somebody.
I’m not going to play the conspiracy card, but the way the Brewers have been treated by the umps and league this year regarding HBPs is ridiculous and should never happen again to anyone.
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 4, 2010 4:33 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I showed my (non-baseball watching) wife video of Hawkins' HBP today and Gomez's beanball Monday
Her three-word response said it better than I could: What the hell?
by Cheeseandcorn on Aug 4, 2010 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Apparently Hawkins was yelling to Soriano to tell the Ump it didnt hit him
I really hope that it was because he wanted another shot at throwing at him.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 5, 2010 6:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Question
So you want Parra out of the rotation, I’m assuming that means you want to call up a starter and cut Cappy?
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Or, at this point in the year
Cut pretty much anyone who’ll be gone next year, (Hoffman)
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Don't tell me
Your still crushing on Manny
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
by WSB Chris on Aug 4, 2010 4:40 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Nope
I just want to know who you’d rather have in there. Obviously the knee jerk reaction is “anyone,” but there’s no one on the 25 man roster I’d replace Parra with, so to me, to take him out of the rotation, you need to cut/demote someone.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Here's a plan
Call up Marco Estrada, tell him if he stops pretending to be hurt, he can pitch for the Brewers, no hard feelings.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I realize he's struggled in relief lately.
But I’d let Cappy have a couple more starts just to see how he handles them.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
parra wasn't pulled fast enough as usual
His MO is well established. No one was up in the pen when he started leaving pitches up. Put it on Macha, I say.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 4, 2010 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Right
but I think the argument is if your starter can never get through 6 innings, should he really be a starter.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I'd take five good from Parra and ready to use the pen in the sixth.
What’s the sense of trying to get six when the pitcher has shown failure in the six on what feels like many occasions?
Parra’s slot in the rotation is a problem for the off-season or spring training.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 4, 2010 5:02 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see why he can't just be used in long relief
If he can get through three clean innings, then that’s perfect. He can make spot starts, just as long as the next manager remembers who Manny is.
Because a starter that
can only go 5 innings at most is going to tax your bullpen. sub 6 inning starts should be a rarity, not a regularity
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Piglett
Yeah, well, sometimes I drink.
by Dikembe Meiztombo on Aug 4, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No reason to give up on Manny in a season like this one.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 4:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Give up on Macha.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 4, 2010 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe not
But there’s also no reason to keep trotting him out there every fifth day like nothing is wrong. He’s clearly not a viable major league starting pitcher at this point.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
He hasn't been pitching like one, but neither has Wolf.
Doesn’t mean his potential has evaporated.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I think everyone's point (and I'm with you on this one, kinda)
is that he’s been nothing but potential for awhile now, and people kinda need to start seeing results at some point.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
He was looking good most of the season
He’s just had a brutal month.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 4:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Which one?
May or July?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
by TheJay on Aug 4, 2010 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
May wasn't great (though he wasn't a starter then)
But July is the reason that people are suddenly talking about cutting him.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 6:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I never said I'd cut him.
But I do think he should be done getting chances as a major league starter.
In my ideal world, he’d be dealt this offseason for someone else who might benefit from a change of scenery, on the off chance that being moved helps them both.
Really, though, I’ll be very disappointed if we spend the whole offseason with him penciled into the rotation, like we did last year, and act like he’s just going to magically turn around. He should have to prove he deserves every opportunity from here on out.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I was at that point with Rickie Weeks
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 4, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Cliff Lee had a higher FIP and much higher xFIP than Parra at age 28.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions
He also had a 3.79 FIP season when he was 26.
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Aug 4, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think we can all agree that Paras ceiling isn’t nearly as high. But I have no problem trotting him out the rest of the season and then figure out what to do next year. And if we decide he can’t be in the rotation, either BP him or sell him.
It’s just such a shame, he’s got the talent and can’t put it together.
In 166 innings
while Lee threw 202 in 2005.
But, whatever. Manny Parra might be Cliff Lee, Part Two. I’m just not going to hold my breath waiting for it.
SRS BSNS
Are you on the Waiting to Exhale waiting list?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I'm too lazy to do it, but eyeballing their career stats at age 28 Parra's might be better
Close, either way.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Ok, so you've established one case where a guy with Parra's career start turned out.
What’s notable isn’t just that there’s one, but also that there’s not much more.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
How do you know that?
I just cited Cliff Lee off the top of my head. I’m sure there are lots of guys who turned it around in their late 20s if they had Parra’s excellent stuff.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
B-Ref lists 42 guys in history with >400 IP and ERA >5.20 before their 28th birthday.
There are some decent bullpen guys on it (LaTroy Hawkins, for one), but the best starter might be Jason Bere.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
ERA isn't a great stat.
Chris Carpenter is another guy, off the top of my head, who was similar to Parra at age 28.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I recognize that ERA isn't the best stat
But by 400 IP, I think it’s a pretty clear indication. A guy who’s been perpetually unlucky for that long must have some pretty terrible karma.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
It's not just luck.
For example, there have been numerous starts where Parra has been needlessly left out to give up 10+ ER, substantially inflating even his career ERA.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree to disagree, I guess.
I need to stop multitasking and start focusing on dinner anyway. Got guests coming at any minute and I’ve spent more time debating Parra than grilling. Have a good one!
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Yep
And without those two starts his career ERA is 4.90
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Wait a minute:
why are those starts being removed in their entirety? Shouldn’t he have to take at least 5 ER in each of those starts (assuming that the additional 5 ER were ‘needlessly’ tagged on)?
SRS BSNS
Therein lies a reason why ERA isn't a great stat.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Thanks Ned!
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 4, 2010 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm willing to cede the point that ERA isn't a good stat.
And that you know this stuff better than I do. But I don’t think carving out the two times he was left out there to give 10 ER makes ERA a better stat than it otherwise is. And it strikes me to be very similar to the “one pitch away” BS Ned used to try to sell. I don’t think they should cut Parra, but I can’t see the point of letting him continue to get pounded in the rotation when he could be a valuable member of the pen. Then if they really want him to start they can try it again next year.
Is “Thanks Ned” insightful commentary? Probably not. But it got the point across, I expect, and it’s as good as “yawn” anyway.
What begins in fear usually ends in folly.
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Aug 4, 2010 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, I think it's fair to leave the 10 ER outings in there.
Sure, he was probably left to hang out there longer than he would’ve been in an ideal situation, but it also shows that, once the wheels started to come off, he displayed a complete inability to pull it together.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
This was also the problem I had with people who refused to believe McGehee would regress
Its not certain to happen, its just the most likely outcome.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Aug 4, 2010 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Because I was bored
Through their age-27 seasons:
Cliff Lee: 644.1 IP, 4.39 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 6.75 K/9, 3.06 BB/9, 2.20 K/BB
Chris Carpenter: 797.1 IP, 5.27 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 6.91 K/9, 3.74 BB/9, 1.85 K/BB
Manny Parra: 424.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 8.10 K/9, 4.41 BB/9, 1.84 K/BB
I’m not saying Parra is ever going to win a Cy Young award, and Lee/Carpenter just happen to be two current pitchers I could think of who developed late, but it does demonstrate that it’s still important to consider potential even at Parra’s age.
(I used 3.20 as the FIP constant for all three, so it’s not as exact as whatever Fangraphs uses)
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 1:39 AM CDT up reply actions
Arthur Rhodes is closer to Parra than those guys
This sounds to me like the idea Carlos Gomez will turn into something offensively (one or two out of all the comps did, so there is hope). Maybe it happens, but it’s unlikely.
There’s no point ditching Parra, the team isn’t playing for anything anyway. Might as well let him try to find something for the rest of the year. My hunch is if he keeps getting run out there as a starter, he will put together a couple decent seasons down the line but he won’t do it consistently. Of course, that can be said about any number of starters who washed out of their rotations. The Esteban Loaiza (feel free to name your own inconsistent journeyman) road to success is not one many teams stick with for long.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
The problem with naming random journeymen as comparisons is that they never had Manny Parra's pitching ability
Not that Arthur Rhodes wasn’t quite good at the role he ended up being given.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
What do you mean by pitching ability?
FWIW Arthur Rhodes’ SO/9 , BB/9 , and FIP through age 27 almost match Parra’s.
If Parra winds up having only a couple good years in an overall mediocre career (like I think he will), a journeyman is a perfect comparison. The fact Parra was expected to be much more doesn’t matter. Otherwise Todd Van Poppel would be in the Hall of Fame.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
Raw stuff...
We all know that Parra hasn’t been able to harness it consistently, but that doesn’t mean he’s destined to be the same type of pitcher as guys with similar rate stats.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 3:15 PM CDT up reply actions
So we can't use rate stats, or strikeouts, walks or FIP.
Are you just going to keep negating stats until we run out of bad pitchers to compare him to?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
No...
But in conjunction with my original point, it’s not fair to take a player at Manny Parra’s age and say “He had the same stats as this other guy, guess he’s destined to have the career this other guy had.” There’s plenty of room for development and fulfilling his potential, as witnessed in guys like Lee or Carpenter.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions
and plenty-er room for failing to amount to anything of course
Carp and Lee are the exceptions, not the rule, correct?
Plenty of room for any pitcher to fail, that doesn't mean you give up on him.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 3:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I both agree and disagree
Parra’s stats show him to be a whole lot of suck. Completely agree with you there. Throwing out these stats is not useful (see Witardo rule of writing)
Where SRB (and Brewers management?) are coming from is that sometimes Parra makes guys look silly. If he can locate his fastball and splitter Manny Parra is the number two pitcher in this rotation. The problem is that most of the time he cannot locate those two – thus the degree of suckitude.
Lets be honest – there are no stats that one can eliminate or add that make Manny Parra look good. But watching him once in a while makes him look great – if you pick the right times to watch him.
My opinion: the guy is a headcase that I fell has a better chance to amount to nothing than something. But a part of me would rather see him amount to nothing with this team, than turn into De La Rosa for a different team.
Manny Parra:
Fastball:+
Splitter:++
Other pitches: even
Head: -—————-
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 5, 2010 11:41 PM CDT up reply actions
There have been plenty of pitchers with "great stuff" who never panned out
I think Parra will join the list.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
That's fine, it's your opinion
But don’t act like it’s inevitable.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Good advice for everyone.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
If the implication is that I was acting like Parra will inevitably become an ace, I suggest you reread my posts...
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Wasn't necessarily referring to this thread
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I think FIP fails when it comes to guys who consistently give up big innings.
FIP, as a rate stat, assumes that the walks and home runs you allow are spread out evenly over your innings, and maybe that’s true for most guys. But, because Parra (and Narveson, and Bush) tend to give up runs in bunches, it underestimates the expected impact of their meltdowns.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
You don't need to use FIP, I just used it beause it's a convenient stat.
Cliff Lee is an example why not to give up on potential, either way.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions
So, if you accept Cliff Lee as the top of Parra's upside
What % chance do you give him of reaching it?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I don't think Parra has Cliff Lee upside
But my point was that there are plenty of pitchers with huge upside who haven’t put it together yet at 28, that’s all.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
but how long do we wait? And if the chances of him figuring it out are only like 20%, is it really worth keeping him around?
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I think so, others may disagree.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
Let him start next year
then make a decision. I doubt we are going to be a playoff team next year either so we might as well give him more time.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
I'll admit, there's a chance he puts it together and becomes a #2-3 type.
but I’ll attach two caveats to that:
1) I think it’s small. Maybe 10-25% at best. I think the odds are better than 50% that he is what he is – a guy with nice flashes of upside and a career ERA around 5.
2) I think his chances of blossoming improve with a change of scenery.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Just change of scenery...
or change in pitching coach/organizational pitching strategy?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
If you count Castro and Bosio
Manny’s already on four major league pitching coaches, yes?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I don't count either of those
as major league pitching coaches.
But technically, yes.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
That's what I was thinking.
Maybe all he needs the Dave Duncan or Leo Mazzone magic, but in my opinion he’s had enough coaches come through while still producing the same results.
Maybe he’s like Zach Greinke and just needs anti-depressants to become an ace?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Is there a doctor in the house?
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
I have some
and I bought them because of the Brewers.
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 5, 2010 7:05 AM CDT up reply actions
well you could make the argument then that there has been a decided lack of consistency
in manny’s coaching.
i'm fighting all the french people i can find. happy cinco de mayo!
by sowingwildoats on Aug 4, 2010 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions
I think those odds are really low.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, maybe not
But aren’t those the odds of any youngish pitcher turning into a solid #2/3?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't see why it's such a big deal that he's 28 and not 26
He’s had zero seasons with >166 IP.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, for one, service time.
Parra will be arb eligible after the season. What if they put all the time and effort into figuring him out and get one good season out of it before he becomes a free agent?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Trade him, get picks, thank him for the one great season
I don’t understand why that’s an argument for getting rid of him now.
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions
I just don't understand the point of giving up on him right here in early August of a lost year
What do you gain by demoting him and starting Capuano?
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
A chance to evaluate Capuano in extended innings.
I think we know what we have in Parra at this point. But sometime this offseason someone’s going to have to decide what to do with Capuano. I’d rather they base that decision on 80-100 innings than the 30 or so he’ll get if he’s left in the bullpen.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Fair enough
But Capuano was never much better than Parra even when he was healthy and in his prime. What is his upside now?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 5, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly right
Enough is enough.
If he really will do better elsewhere, or that’s the perception at least, then he’ll fetch a better deal in the trade market. Like a dozen bats and all towels laundered for 30 days.
"I had a roommate in the minor leagues named Arturo Polanco. The first words in English I taught him were 'Son of a bleach.' I think something was lost in the translation." -- Jim Bouton, Ball Four
by PlusorMinusThree on Aug 4, 2010 11:06 PM CDT up reply actions
I predictably disagree
And I’ll try to defend it in-depth later. I see no reason to run a guy like Capuano out there at this point ahead of Parra. I’d actually be disappointed if he’s not left in the rotation to finish out the year.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I'd like to see Chris Capuano given a month in the rotation to see what he can do.
I’ll acknowledge the possibility that he might not be better than Parra, but I’d like to know if he’s worth offering a contract to for next season.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Aug 4, 2010 4:46 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
That's fair.
I’m not sure what our control situation is with any of the AAA starters, either, so maybe we do the same with one of them and bid bush adieu a month early as well…
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
I am ready to end both the Bush and the Parra experiment
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
by WSB Chris on Aug 4, 2010 4:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Give up on the Macha experiment.
Far less problematic.
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 4, 2010 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed give Cappy a couple of starts
See what he can do
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
by WSB Chris on Aug 4, 2010 4:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it says alot about where we are
That despite our rotation being awful and us having nothing to play for, there’s not a single young pitcher in our system that anyone can recommend…
"I hope your name is Rick"
When the roster expands
I’d expect a few guys to come up. Rivas, Rogers, Jeffress off the top of my head.
Sounds like Jeffress might come up then
But doubt he’d start and doubt he’ll get much of an opportunity. Would be surprised if the others got much of a chance either…
"I hope your name is Rick"
You're right
I think Jeffress will continue on in the bullpen experiment, and probably will stick there for a while. Rogers will get some innings, probably not as a starter, though.
Rivas, however, has a legitimate shot to start next season as the fifth starter, and you’d hope he gets a look late this season.
I hope you're right about Rivas
Sounds like he’s been good for the last year or so and he’s got to be worth a shot. I suspect he’d need a pre-season like Narveson’s to make sure Macha (if he’s still there) doesn’t have an option to leave him off the starting roster…
"I hope your name is Rick"
Macha will NOT be there
If they resign him, I storm Miller Park. Who’s with me?
by BrewCrewBrian on Aug 5, 2010 7:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Yep
when we can flip Gallardo and Braun at the deadline for a bunch of prospects that will make us good in 2017. Perfect!
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
Sorry, what do you expect?
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
a.k.a. "the backtocali model"
Ryan Braun: He loves it.
by SRB on Aug 4, 2010 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions
At the start of the year, how many of you thought Narveson would be the more effective starter than Parra?
I did, for one.
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
But Manny had a really good FIP in the first half of 2008!
SRS BSNS
by Rubie Q on Aug 4, 2010 4:39 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Brewers Baseball 2010
When we good we are really good and when we bad we stink on ice
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
by WSB Chris on Aug 4, 2010 4:41 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Tom Hallion had always been a favorite of mine
He calls a good game behind the plate, and he will usually let you say your piece before throwing you out. His performance today, however, was suspension worthy. The problem for is no longer just protecting their hitters, this is a situation in which the Brewers are at a distinct disadvantage by not being allowed to pitch inside. There is such a clear double standard it’s mind-blowing.
"If the world were perfect, it wouldn't be." - Yogi Berra
I think we could organize a chorus to sing this one outside of MLB headquarters...
Statistics: A bunch of numbers looking around for an argument. G. Burgy, Rockville, MD
by heybatterbatter on Aug 4, 2010 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Argh
I hate left-handed pitchers.
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
by roguejim on Aug 4, 2010 5:04 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Perception bias
I would say that we’ve had a higher amount of blowout wins/losses than I can remember happening in previous seasons. Is there any way to check that outside of crunching all the numbers myself? Perhaps a stat measuring the average run differential in games that ignores whether the number is positive or negative could track this.
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
Not a Simpsons quote...honest to God MATH.
So my guess is that the positive value of the run differential (with each game receiving weight of 1) would roughly follow a Chi-Squared distribution. If this is true, then we could extrapolate an expected value which would be applicable to the team. With that distribution created, we could calculate a population variance, and compute the test statistic to evaluate the 2010 Brewers run differential is above the population average and statistically significant.
Sadly I do not have the data, nor access to SAS right now. Someone else care to calculate this, or is this something we should put on the “do in the offseason” pile?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
I think what you're creating is a Pythagorean record
And as it turns out, that’s been long established.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Not quite
Pythagorean record attempts to calculate what a team’s winning percentage would be given their total run differential. The Pythagorean record of a team allowing 800 runs and scoring 800 runs is the same as a team allowing 500 runs and scoring 500 runs. And PR doesn’t care if you win 10-1 then lose 1-10, or if you win 2-1 then lose 2-1.
I believe one of the assumptions made in deriving the PR formula is that a team will lose blowouts as often as they win blowouts.
I’m talking about deriving a metric that measures whether a team is involved in more (or less) blowouts than an average team.
I’m also curious whether there could be some influence of managerial tendencies. Do some managers encourage their players to take it easy and avoid blowouts, while others wave the white flag and let pitchers get shelled?
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Depends on what you consider a blowout
But you could go year by year looking at the “blowout” split on B-R’s team schedule page. This is the team’s 47th blowout game (5+ runs). That’s the same as in all of 2008. 53 in 2001 was the highest total in the last decade.
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
So which team will Carlos Gomez and Manny Parra lead to the World Series in 2017?
Maybe he should play first base instead. That is, he should lie out there and we can step on him when we get a hit.
I thought they were the Las Vegas 51's
Applying Simpsons and Star Wars quotes to Brewers discussions since 2009.
Um guys, one more thing about Manny
Did anyone ask Macha if this start of Manny’s was called from the dugout, or if he called his own?
Looks like SOMEBODY's been following along on the Game Threads:
From Tony W.‘s recap of today’s game:
And, while we’re on the subject of the sixth inning, how many games are the Brewers going to lose at that particular juncture? They have been outscored, 87-46, in the sixth, by far the most lopsided inning of their season.
Hmm. The cumulative score, by inning, for the season? That looks awful familiar.
Probably just a coincidence …
SRS BSNS
That Parra guy
He’s not very good, is he?
Actually, I’d give him a shot as a set-up guy or a closer. It’s clear that if you want five innings out of him, you are going to have to suffer a meltdown during at least one of them.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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