Early thoughts for '11
by Braski on Sep 9, 2010 2:25 AM CDT
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PrintKeep in mind that the salaries are expectations and not exact numbers. However, even if I am way off, we would still have some $$$ to play with. I like the R/L/R/L/R rotation, the 'pen, the catchers, the infield, the outfield and possibility to spend some more $$$ if needed. Let me know what you think. A vet 1B with gold glove defense would be nice :)
Starting Rotation:
49 Gallardo, Yovani SP R R 6-2 222 24 3 Michoacan, Mexico $7,500,000
43 Wolf, Randy SP L L 6-0 198 34 11 Canoga Park, California $8,800,276
00 Guy, New SP R R 6-3 252 28 6 $9,000,000 + from Fielder
39 Capuano, Chris RP/SP L L 6-2 224 32 7 Springfield, Mass $1,500,000 * or Narveson
31 Bush, Dave SP R R 6-2 204 30 6 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania $4,215,000
Spot Starting/long relief:
38 Narveson,Chris SP/RP L L 6-3 205 28 4 Englewood, Colorado $406,500 * or Capuano
Middle relief/long relief:
26 Parra, Manny SP/RP L L 6-3 216 27 3 Sacramento, California $440,000
58 McClendon, Mike RP R R 6-5 215 25 R Arlington, Texas $400,000
32 Hawkins, LaTroy RP R R 6-5 195 37 15 Gary, IN $4,000,000
7th, 8th and closer:
13 Braddock, Zach RP L L 6-2 233 23 R Mount Holly, New Jersey $400,000
50 Loe, Kameron RP R R 6-7 240 28 6 Simi Valley, California $400,000
59 Axford, John CL R R 6-5 195 27 1 Simcoe, Ontario N/A $600,000
Trade bait:
60 Coffey, Todd RP R R 6-4 241 29 5 Forest City, NC $2,025,002
12 Villanueva, Carlos RP R R 6-2 228 26 4 Santiago, Dominican $950,000
78 Kintzler, Brandon RP R R 6-1 180 26 R Las Vegas, Nevada
A couple of minor leaguers that could be brought up instead (Mark Rogers,Jeremy Jeffress,etc.)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Catchers:
20 Lucroy, Jonathan C R R 6-0 185 24 R Eustis, Florida $400,000
16 Kottaras, George 1B/C L R 6-0 185 27 2 Scarborough, Ont $408,500
Trade bait:
A couple of minor leaguers
--------------------------------------------------------------
Infielders:
24 Gamel, Mat 3b/1B L R 6-0 200 25 2 Jacksonville, Fl $406,500
23 Weeks, Rickie 2B R R 5-10 213 27 7 Daytona Beach, Fl $4,500,000
21 Escobar, Alcide SS R R 6-1 182 23 2 La Sabana, Venezuel $405,500
14 McGehee, Casey 3B R R 6-1 195 27 2 Santa Cruz, Cal $427,500
2 Inglett, Joe RF/LF/2B L R 5-9 177 32 4 Sacramento, Cal $600,000
75 Cruz, Luis 2b/SS R R 6-1 200 26 2 Navojoa, Sonora $400,000
Trade bait:
28 Fielder, Prince 1B L R 5-11 268 26 5 Ontario, Cal $11,000,000
A couple of minor leaguers that could be brought up instead (at 2B for sure)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Outfielders:
8 Braun, Ryan LF R R 6-1 200 26 3 Mission Hills, Cal $9,000,000
36 Cain, Lorenzo RF/LF/CF R R 6-2 192 24 R Valdosta, Georgia $400,000
7 Dickerson, Chris LF/RF/CF L L 6-3 228 28 2 Hollywood, Cal $415,000
1 Hart, Corey RF R R 6-6 229 28 6 Bowling Green, Kent $8,000,000
Trade bait:
27 Gómez, Carlos RF/LF/CF R R 6-4 215 24 3 Santiago, Dominican $1,100,000
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Parra..
Is due a big raise this offseason in arbitration.
I’m also not sure about a lot of the other comments you’ve made about pitching.
The pitchers you list as trade bait are anything but. I’m not sure if Coffey can make the team next year with the cheap arms available in the bullpen. Same goes for Villanueva. Even though they may not make the team, I’m not sure who else would trade anything for them…at least not anything major league ready.
Rogers will almost certainly begin the year in the minors in a starting role, and the Brewers will probably give him every opportunity to play himself out of that role (as with Parra). Jeffress does not have a solid role either…he may be shifted back to starting and go back to AA. Ditto for Braddock, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the focus for him is more of a development into a solid reliever as opposed to the LOOGY role he is somewhat stuck in right now. They’d be better off bringing Stetter back up, as he is probably the best LOOGY in the organization.
Who are the minor leaguers that could be brought up at 2B? Luis Cruz was our 2B in AAA. I’m sure Lawrie will start the year there next season, and he’s the closest to being ready at 2B.
Who is there to trade at Catcher? We already promoted our AA catcher this season when Lucroy came up. Nobody else in the higher levels is tradeable for anything of value.
Braddock will not be put back to starting.
He has been a reliever since I think AA.
by BrewCrewBrian on Sep 9, 2010 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes, I was talking about Lawrie at 2B. I just looked and can't find the catcher I was thinking of...
Maybe we moved him to another position? The name escapes me. I say trade bait because maybe those guys can be packaged and get something. Cuz they don’t need to be in Brewers uniforms!!!
are you thinking of salome?
he’s not worth anything to anyone, including us
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 12, 2010 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions
fffff
i replied to the wrong post (again), yeah, salome is worthless though. why trade brett lawrie? such a dumb idea.
I'd rather not trade Lawrie at all, but I get slammed by all the Weeks brigade...
every time I mention getting something for him. At any rate, yes it was Salome. I was falling asleep and remembered the name, but didn’t budge to update the post. However, there are teams looking for young catchers and he could at least be part of a deal. My entire post was really to just get us thinking. Fart, I like your respect for Go Go, but do we really need him at all? If we can throw another $1million at a starter it is worth cutting ties. Thanks for all the posts! It makes a half-ass season, and a long winter (oh yeah…Green and Gold!!!) seem interesting.
Your post doesnt really add up
Salome is useless for a trade and to the team, and he’s not even playing catcher anymore. And you dont need to worry about a Lawrie trade or Weeks, at least not in the same sentence, because Lawrie is going to most likely wind up in RF, so a Lawrie trade doesnt really mean Weeks gets extended, and a Weeks trade doesnt mean that Lawrie slides right in.
I don't care how talented Lawrie is
It’s almost impossible for him to outperform Weeks at this point.
why not get Bush, Narv, and some minor league guys(such as Rogers) to compete for the 5th spot?
I want Rogers to take the 5th, though. probably not the best idea because of his erratic command, but still…
Bush is probably gone next season since he'll be a FA.
Plus, Capuano is looking like he might be ready to compete for a rotation spot.
Rogers is likely going to start the season in the minors. He was only just recently promoted to Triple-A, so that’s probably where he’ll start the season next year where he can work on his control.
Jeffress hasn’t been used as a starter at all this season, so it’s anyone’s guess what the organization has in mind for him. I think it was reported recently that he profiles as an MLB closer, so it’s possible that they keep him as a reliever (where he’s had more success).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
so what about
keeping Rogers in the minors for half a season and then see how he handles the 5th rotation spot? and the season after that he can pitch for a full season
by ilikeburritos on Sep 9, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
When they bring up Rogers will probably be determined by how he pitches in AAA.
I don’t think they’ll go into the season with the set plan of “keep him in the minors for a half a season and then bring him up.” Although I’d bet that he’ll be one of the first ones called up in case of injury.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 9, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Thing with Rogers for me
Is that this is a guy with an injury history. Part of me wants to give him more time to adjust to a higher level of competition and the other part of me wants to stick him in the bigs and see how he does so we can get some useful innings out of him before another potential injury. Ideally, I would love to see them piggy back 2-3 starters/long relievers for the 5th rotation spot. Have something like Rogers and Narv-dog paired up with the starter being the one with the best matchup and the other being the first guy out of the pen at the closest sign to trouble. Hopefully between the 2 on average we could get 7-8 innings for each of their games.
BCB, the preferred above replacement level sarcasm supplier.
by MadJimiBrewha on Sep 11, 2010 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions
rogers avgd less than 5IP a start... in AA
sorry, but he will get eaten alive starting for the team at this point. relief he could do because he throws so hard, but as long as there’s a shred of hope that he can start it’s not worth it.
I think he wa still on a low pitch count last season
Which accounts for some of the shorts starts. Its just the walks that are killing him. I don’t think he’d get eaten alive as a starter. In fact, I think if he could learn some command, he could be a great starter.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Sep 11, 2010 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed
it’s not as if he’s getting hit hard, as batters’ batting average is like .210 against him. he’s just walking a ton. from what I’ve seen on the replay videos, he seems to have good movement on his fastballs. so if he gets his walks down he could be an above-average pitcher. Yo was somewhat similar last year. he had a ton of walks and would reach 90 pitches by the time it was the 5th inning. but this year, before spending time on the DL he was one of the most dominant pitchers in the NL. Rogers could have similar results
by ilikeburritos on Sep 11, 2010 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
yes
i didn’t mean that he sucked, just that he walked a ton of dudes and had a pitch count. he was once rated as a better prospect than ryan or prince, no doubt if he could command that 96 mph fastball a little better he could be elite. rogers isn’t ready for the major leagues at all, he needs time in aaa to improve his control and etc. opponent’s batting average is pretty meaningless, but yeah, he had a real good year.
that is why I think that it's a good idea to keep him in AAA for some part of next season
and if he shows better command and once someone gets hurt or DFA’d, then he can be promoted, hopefully into a rotation spot
by ilikeburritos on Sep 11, 2010 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd be fine with letting Cappy and Parra duke it out for the 5th spot. Whoever doesn't win goes to long relief.
Bush should not be on the team next season. That would leave us with 2 spots to fill in the rotation.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
either fill it with minor league pitchers, FA, or trade
by ilikeburritos on Sep 9, 2010 9:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Fan giveaway.
Every day the Brewers need a pitcher, they have a raffle. The winner gets a one day contract and the start in that night’s game.
by NoahJ on Sep 10, 2010 3:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
you think the average fan is "R"?
then you don’t understand WAR
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 10, 2010 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
i thought they were joking...?
hopefully whatever prince (unfortunately) nets the crew in a trade is at least an AL #2 NL #1/2 pitcher for at least 2 years. dang that sounds sad
Youre dreaming if you think thats what the Brewers get for Fielder
1 year of him for $16 million is a HUGE price to give up a #2 starter.
Thats probably a good idea
But Im still holding out hope on Parra, whereas Capuano is probably not a reliable option. Add to it that if they are going to “rely” on Narveson as one of the rotation spots, its not a good sign for 2011.
They will have two open spots for next year’s rotation most likely, and I wouldnt be surprised if Dougie boy signs Jeremy Bonderman as one of those spots and then tries to fill the #2 spot with someone he gets for Fielder (Billingsley, Danks, Pelfrey, Jurrjens…something like that).
Looking forward to 2011 the big problem will be replacing the wins lost with a Fielder trade, and then making up the gap between .500 and below .500 with yet another FA signing. Its looking a lot like a .500 team next year again imo.
Pitching > Offense
If Doug makes the right move with Fielder, then the pitching can make up for the lost offense
by ilikeburritos on Sep 10, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree that pitching is > offense
But its very unlikely that Melvin gets a 4 win pitcher in a trade for Fielder. He might get a couple of prospects that down the road beat that number, but thats not the type of trade he likes to make.
pitching == offense
it’s just that any gain in pitching is likely >> loss of offense. Thus win
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 10, 2010 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions
yes, lets for sure sign jeremy bonderman
even though his FIP is 4.5 with no prospects of improving and him not being better than parra or capuano (yeah, who knows about capuano, but still he’s just as worthwhile as bonderman) it sure sounds like a great idea. don’t hate on the narvdog, he is actually alright as a little above league average pitcher, although apparently he is older than bonderman somehow. still, he costs like 450k to bondermans 2m or something, so i’d take him.
huh?
how’d you go off like that based on what I said? I said nothing about bonderman or frankly any pitcher with a 4.5FIP.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 12, 2010 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not advocating that as a pickup
but he fits the Melvin model for a FA arm. And Bonderman has been linked to the Brewers in various reports.
please show these reports
i don’t see it happening, i mean, bonderman isn’t that bad and i am enduringly fond of him due to moneyball, but it just doesn’t really make sense for the brewers.
I dont think it makes sense for the Brewers either
but neither did Suppan, Wolf, any pitcher signed by DM to a long term deal….
Cant remember the sources but I believe one of them was MLBTR and the other came from one of those ESPN guys.
pardon me
I have to clean up the tea that just went through my nose on the way out.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 13, 2010 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder why Bonderman?
sure he throws over 91mph, but he’s been very hittable. So other than being able to strike people out he’s been the hard throwing Jeff Suppan
by ilikeburritos on Sep 13, 2010 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
unfortunately
I would prefer an above-average prospect(or at least a pitcher in his first or second year in the majors) rather than a veteran pitcher. but for as much as I can remember, Melvin always preferred veteran pitchers
by ilikeburritos on Sep 11, 2010 8:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Who is Guy, New?
I looked up this player on baseball reference and did not get a match. Is this some minor league player I am unaware of?
"Do not mess around when it's my head. That is personal." -Carlos Gomez
I'd be fine with that.
Although Ryan probably isn’t going to let that happen.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
lol
i like the part where you say that we should trade carlos villanueva, (3.38 xFIP) and keep mike mcclendon. villanueva isn’t worth as much to anyone else as the brewers, so trading him would just be stupid. and why give up on gomez? he won’t cost anything next year and i’m still a believer~ (okay he’s my favorite player but still).
if dave bush comes back to the brewers i will seriously contemplate suicide.
We might be able to package Carlos and get something and he costs more than Mike...
Other than that it is a flip of a coin. Go Go likely won’t be needed if Cain continues to improve and he is cheaper as well. Nice name by the way!
thanks
why do we need to trade him? what if cain gets hurt (god forbid)? depth is a good thing and gomez is an mlb player; i mean, even with lackluster UZR ratings that are pretty undeserved i’d say he has been worth like .5 WAR; with the defense i think he has delivered in reality he’s been a lot better. is that so bad for our fifth outfielder? he’ll cost like 1.5m tops next year and be worth probably 1 WAR in limited playing time, that’s not a bad deal.
Inglett is our 5th outfielder
He’s affordable, doesn’t have personality issues, and he performs in limited play – the perfect bench guy.
personality issues?
yeah, having confidence in your abilities as a player (justified given that hes been perhaps the best defensive CF past few years), that for sure makes him a headcase. that carlos gomez, how dare he have self regard.
I don't think anyone is questioning his defensive abilities...
it’s when he makes multiple statements about hitting .260 that bothers people.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
WAR
Gomez’s WAR this season is -0.5… not sure where you’re getting that positive value.
At $1.5M, I’d say they’re better off going with someone like Inglett or even Norris Hopper… both cheaper.
The only reason to trade Gomez is if they can get something back that’s worthwhile or package him in a deal. Letting him rot on the bench or in Triple-A will only hurt his value… and his current salary makes him too expensive to keep around for that.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I think we are two starting pitchers away from really competing!!!
Kind of my whole thought here. How can we get these guys? Get a good one or two starter for Fielder from a team that needs HRs. If that can happen, he will likely also have only one year left on his contract. Huge DM move if we get a stud with 2-3 years for Fielder. Maybe get a decent two for Weeks and sign and trade. That way we each get 3-5 years. However, I like Weeks over 5 years with another veteran miss!!! We have a few good position players in AA+. Maybe the Royals or Orioles have a pitcher to send out way. The only way they are selling tix is by HR’s and OBP. Or not. At any rate, let’s keep our $$$ under $90M and get a few pieces. The only thing for sure is Fielder is gone (and I don’t like it)!!!
you should be honest
we’re 8 position players, 5 starters, a handful of relievers and a coaching staff away from the playoffs. Lets just get the Yankees to move to Milwaukee.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 13, 2010 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Fielder
If DM doesn’t get an offer that he likes, I could easily see him keeping Fielder for another season, then letting him go via FA.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
It's not a terrible idea really
The comp draft pick we’d get would pan out to be worth probably half the package we’d get for fielder, but we’d get another year out of him, which I wouldn’t be opposed to.
But I’d rather trade him if a fair package came along.
So what?
There’s no DH, and he’s not going to be any better in RF. Gonna just let him sit in the minors in the desperate attempt to get him to learn 1B, which he doesn’t sound that optimistic of? Just let him know, for every run he costs us defensively, he owes us 4 offensively. Then we’re all set.
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
So what?
Bad defense costs games, thats what.
Braun’s awfuld defense at 3B in his rookie year cost the team probably 3 games if not more and the division.
Any move from the infield, especially a position which has a big impact like 3B to the OF is going to improve a bad defenders prospects for the team. Look at what it did for Braun. If you touch the ball less, you have less impact defensively, and dont hurt the team as much.
you think without Braun's bat
we would have had a shot in his rookie season?
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 15, 2010 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
give backtocali a break
the brewers suck and everyone on them is bad, as he says. i’m kind of a believer than gamel could be a serviceable 3b for some reason (his arm i think), but with mcgehee around it’s probably not gonna happen, so his future lies in rf.
my point is
Braun put up more WAR than Bill Hall or another random 3B man could have. And it’s not like you can expect the org to have the insight to stick him in left right away to minimize damage, especially since I don’t believe he’d played an inning out there during minor league ball, so that’s a rough transition mid-season.
I hardly think Braun “cost us” 3 wins his rookie season. If he had, biased as the voting group may be toward bad stats, I don’t think he would have had a prayer at ROY
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 15, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
acc'd to fangraphs
even factoring in his defense he was a 2.8 WAR player for a partial season.
in full seasons fielder, hardy and hart. With a similar number of games played, weeks was also ahead of Braun in WAR in 2007. Bill Hall had a much lower WAR AND played in more games than Braun on the season. Craig Counsell played in more games, albeit with only 66% of the PAs had 1/4 of Braun’s WAR. Graffinino had about 1/2 the PAs and about 1/3 the WAR of Braun. Even giving other players an uptick for playing 3B as well as they played another less difficult position, there’s nobody else (Fielder and Hart aside) in the same league aside from perhaps Geoff Jenkins, who I think you’d struggle to reteach a position at that point in his career. ie, no one else that could have played 3B would have provided his value, provided we hadn’t drafted Tulo several years before.
So, how exactly did he cause us to fall from the playoff picture? Yes, his defense hurt, but his offense brought us into contention. Without his defense you can’t get his offense in the NL (unless it’s strictly off the bench in 1/4 the at bats, which would have resulted in about a 1 WAR player, assuming he’s as good cold off the bench as warm from playing in the game). And his offense STRONGLY outweighed his disability as a position player.
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 15, 2010 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions
that's where that sentence fragment came from
“in full seasons fielder, hardy and hart " were the only players with higher WAR than Braun
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 15, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
P.S.
I’m NOT saying he “deserved” his ROY award, but to say he hurt the Brewers’ playoff chances (or rather division crown) in 2007 is laughable. He helped their chances immeasurably measurably
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 15, 2010 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Not single handedly
But he did have a -35 UZR that year, and thats 3 games. The team was pretty good defensively that year, and Fielder was the only other player to have a negative defensive contribution that even came close to one full game (-7 UZR).
The game is played on both sides of the ball.
But how do you know that he didn't use his bat to 'win' those games that he 'lost'?
http://www.mlbsoup.com
you dont
the brewers suck ryan braun is bad i predict the brewers go 30-130 next year because ryan braun sucks defensively and everyone is bad. backtocali you downbeat bro~~~
Don't try to reason with a troll
Reasoning with a troll doesn’t work
by ilikeburritos on Sep 16, 2010 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions
But thats what WAR tells you
He gave the team 4 wins with his bat, and took 3 away with his glove…game and a half or so based on positional and replacement level….2.8 WAR for 2007.
And his UZR was actually only -27.7 (still 3 games, but not as bad as I had previously posted).
isn't a positive contribution
oh, um…positive?
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 16, 2010 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions
you know...especially given that it was 5th most on the team
which would be the median if you only had 9 players, but since you have more than 9 players….
by PagsBrewCrew on Sep 16, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
uhh he was clearly worth -3 WAR
obv. he is worthless and sucks. the brewers are so bad. hopeless. the brewers will never contend. ever. doug melvin is so stupid. prince fielder is worthless. theyre all bad. backtocali~
maybe
and also, even though i’m a believer and all, is it really that prudent to move mcgehee to the bench?
Why would you move the better defensive third baseman to 1B?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You wouldn't.
I’m saying if they stick with Gamel at 3B, they’re not going to bench McGehee
http://www.twitter.com/mykenk
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Cincinnati
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Houston
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Milwaukee
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
|
St. Louis
|
0 | 0 | .000 | 0 | Lost 0 |
(updated 2.16.2012 at 7:03 AM CST)
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