Tuesday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 11, 2011 9:37 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while making a request. (h/t Pocket Doppler)
On a slow news day, today's top story is in the minors: Baseball America unveiled their top ten Brewer prospects yesterday, with Mark Rogers #1 (FanShot). Tom Haudricourt has the full scouting reports for the ten players.
Obviously, the list has been impacted a bit by trades that shipped away Brett Lawrie, Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress. It's also impacted by the Brewers' failure to sign first round pick Dylan Covey, but Jim Callis of BA says Covey wouldn't have been the org's #1 prospect.
Adam McCalvy's inbox also has a strong minor league flavor today: He answered questions about Mat Gamel, Cody Scarpetta and Mark Rogers along with reader inquiries on Scott Podsednik and Carlos Villanueva.
Closer to home, voting is now open for the #7 spot in our BCB Community Rankings. Caleb Gindl is coming off three straight days where he either finished in second place or within five votes of first - is today his day?
He probably won't make anyone's top ten this year, but Andre Lamontagne is an interesting prospect to follow. Wisconsin Sports Tap has more about him.
Back in the big leagues, Albert Lyu of FanGraphs has a nice look at Shaun Marcum's arsenal and how he uses it in various situations. Until reading that I hadn't noticed that Marcum, who is right-handed, is much more effective against lefties.
Elsewhere in offseason acquisitions, Satchel Price of Beyond the Box Score says the Rays got more for Matt Garza than the Brewers gave up for Zack Greinke.
You know we're running out of things to talk about when we start going in-depth on individual ABs from six months ago:
- Matt Klaasen of FanGraphs listed Craig Counsell's walkoff bunt (with Carlos Gomez coming all the way around from first) as 2010's fourth best bunt.
- Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker relived a John Axford-Justin Morneau matchup from June 22.
Around baseball:
Astros: Acquired pitcher Sergio Escalona from the Phillies for a minor leaguer.
Cubs: Claimed catcher Max Ramirez off waivers from the Red Sox.
Mariners: Signed infielder Adam Kennedy to a minor league deal.
Padres: Signed shortstop Jason Bartlett to a two year, $11 million deal with a vesting option for 2013, avoiding arbitration.
Pirates: Signed pitcher Jorge Julio to a minor league deal.
Reds: Signed outfielder Fred Lewis to a one year deal.
Rockies: Signed reliever Sean White to a minor league deal.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Brad Penny to a one year deal worth $3 million plus incentives.
Today in former Brewers: The B-Ref Blog has a list of 42 players that have posted a WPA of .15 or more in 39 or more games as a DH. Paul Molitor, Dave Parker and Matt Stairs all qualified.
Is your aversion toward reading preventing you from learning everything you should know about sabermetrics? If so, DRaysBay's video introduction to FIP may be just the thing for you.
With help from the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to:
- 2007 Brewer Greg Aquino, who turns 33.
- Former Brewer exec Jack Zduriencik, who turns 60.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to take my place in line.
Drink up.
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Youth over experience
PCL playoff veteran Brandon Boggs got a major league deal while former World Series Champion and scrappy second baseman Adam Kennedy didn’t. I don’t think it’s good or bad, just indicative of the shift in MLB priorities.
I never use a big word when a diminutive word would suffice.
Bartlett?
2 years/11 mill. I don’t understand the world anymore.
Since becoming a regular in 2006, he's averaged 2.64 fWAR per season.
If you assume he’ll continue that pace in his age 31-32 seasons, then two years, $11 million would give him somewhere in the neighborhood of $12 million in surplus value over the course of that deal.
Since Bartlett was arb-eligible the Padres committed more than they had to, but I think the deal is defensible.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 11, 2011 11:24 AM CST up reply actions
"If you assume he’ll continue that pace in his age 31-32 seasons"
I think that’s the crux of the argument.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
That's a little young to expect a significant decline.
He was a 4.9 win player in 2009. Even if he doesn’t meet his career averages, he’s probably a safe bet to be worth 1.5 WAR/season just based on his defense.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 11, 2011 11:31 AM CST up reply actions
I can see that.
If anyone thinks he will repeat his 2009 numbers, they are nuts.
by Braunstalker on Jan 11, 2011 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
Chasing the dragon, man!
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:40 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
On Garza yielding more return than greinke
It’s reasonable to think that the Rays got more for him because he was cheaper, has 3 years of control, and he didn’t demand to be traded. Plus, the Rays took advantage of the fact that once the cubs will ALWAYS overpay.
"Special teams means special times, bros"
Not included in the analysis
The Brewers took negative value in Betancourt, and saved the Royals $3-4 Million. Also I believe Fuld is out of options, so his defense needs to be good enough right now to offset his career 85 OPS+ or the Rays have to put him on waivers.
Here are the four guys the Rays may have in the next 3-5 years:
Robinson Chirinos-been in minors since 2001, has 15 games above AA
Brandon Guyer-had a breakout season as a 24 yo repeating AA, after putting up a .527 OPS in 57 games the prior year
Hak-Ju Lee-had similar offensive production as a 19 yo as Brent Brewer’s 19 yo season
Chris Archer-Best two seasons to date, 2009 in his third go at A ball and 2010 with a 1/2 season in the Florida State Line League, where the hitters put up a blistering .688 OPS.
I accept as completely plausible that the Cubs don’t know what they are doing with Chirinos and he is/has been ready for the majors. But to say it is even probable that all of them make the majors is wildly optimistic. They obviously have talent, but the road from A/AA to the majors is littered with talented never-was prospects. I would be surprised if 2 of the 4 prospects the Rays received make their 25-man roster, ever. And that’s not even getting into them living up to their potential/ceilings.
The Royals got 3 guys they can put on their 2011 opening day roster and play at least league average at 2 premium positions. How that’s less, when the metric we should be using is production at the major league level is beyond me.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 11, 2011 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
Actually
the metric we should be using is production at the major league level to infinity.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
and beyond!
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
production at the major league level should be considered?
when neither team (Royals, Cubs) is going to contend for a pennant, and thus the marginal value for a win is low? I can see it affecting the Rays possibly, but they can’t contend every year in their division.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 11, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
Seems like a pretty big assumption to think Jeffress/Escobar/Cain will all be league average next year.
Escobar was terrible last season, Cain was riding an inflated BABIP and has little experience above AA, and who knows how Jeffress will end up.
Garza isn’t even in the same league as Greinke in terms of pitching ability, so the fact that the Cubs package is even being discussed relative to the Brewers package highlights how much they overpaid.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Covey
Anyone else think that Covey would have been a better prospect than Mark Rogers?
With all of the departures via trades, I cant see how he wouldnt have been the #1 prospect in the organization. The only explanation I can think of is the one discussed yesterday in which there was an impression that the list was somewhat influenced by the Brewer front office.
Had a similar thought
Though I could see Covey rated lower if there were question marks on his abilities to deal with his health issues.
If he signed last year he’d have no pro experience going into the offseason and there would be a lot of unknowns, both on his pitching ability and his health.
Get a ife broseph
This
And even if he’d signed in time to play, he’d still be a high-upside guy that had never pitched above Arizona or Helena.
A year from now he might have been #1, but at the moment I wouldn’t put him there.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 11, 2011 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
Its a little confusing to me
these prospect listings and whatnot. It really just goes two show that two scouts/teams/people don’t necessarily ever see the same thing. I know Keith Law hates Mark Rogers’ ‘cross-body’ delivery. I’m not a scout, or a doctor, but I’d worry about his potential for either re-injury, or banishment to the bullpen if he isn’t able to adjust that.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:44 PM CST up reply actions
Wouldn't you think that Peterson would've corrected that if he thought it was going to increase his risk for re-injury?
Granted, he was a Sept call-up, so Peterson probably didn’t have much time to work with him.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Eh maybe
But who really knows. I haven’t really watched Rogers pitch very much, so I can’t really comment on the delivery. I seem to remember some comments about command issues…perhaps from KG.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:59 PM CST up reply actions
Changing how he throws the ball
Is a pretty major thing to do. The last time the Brewers tried to fix his delivery he had 2 surgeries.
He doesn’t have a lot of time left in the system before he can be a FA, I think at this point they are taking any delivery flaws that he has and just going with it and hope he doesn’t get hurt.
Get a ife broseph
Yeah that's probably the way to go
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions
Let me put this somewhere you can't get it deleted, Mr. Scout
Our boy BTC here thinks Peralta will be nothing more than a back end of the rotation guy, “at best a #3”, Keith Law had some slightly differing opinions
Not sniping, he just kept getting scouting articles deleted on another Brewers site to be a pain. Thought I’d post it somewhere people could see, as Law was and probably still is high on Peralta if he can get it all together.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Jan 11, 2011 2:53 PM CST up reply actions
To be fair
The Keith Law article was from almost a year ago – a lot of people were slightly disappointed that Peralta didn’t take a big step last year
Get a ife broseph
True
But that doesn’t mean the talent is not still there. It’s based on whether he can “bring it all together”, which young pitchers do all the time.
Look no further than Pineda for the Mariners, from “potential” to “one of the top prospects in the game” in one season.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Jan 11, 2011 3:02 PM CST up reply actions
Its also to prove a point
I post on another Brewers site most of the time that BTC basically trolls whenever possible. Not so much with his opinions, but by reporting articles with scouting reports than differ form his opinions and getting the moderator to delete them. No one does it but him.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Jan 11, 2011 3:04 PM CST up reply actions
sounds like a bad moderator then
nothing else
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 11, 2011 3:16 PM CST up reply actions
Aren't you then trolling by extension right now?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 4:24 PM CST up reply actions
No, actually you are sniping
Seeing as you wandered over here just to call someone out.
What happens elsewhere is not my problem, and I’d appreciate it if you’d stop making it my problem.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 11, 2011 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Well, seeing as how we both post here...
And seeing how we both tend to clash on practically everything, just a continued issue into another forum. It’s not so much a problem as it is me trying to find a neutral ground.
I’ll try and keep my cool, but sometimes you have to stand up for your point, especially when its a fan of another team trying to pretend he knows your team better than you do because he spends his entire life reading one site. That’s just an attack on someone’s integrity.
It doesn’t need to be your problem, people argue on here plenty without you saying something. Besides, its an interesting read regardless, keep it at that.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Jan 11, 2011 4:05 PM CST up reply actions
"Sometimes you have to stand up for your point."
Or else, you know…people will keep being wrong on the internet.
This isn’t a crusade, it’s a baseball discussion.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
It is baseball discussion
And sometimes discussion turns into heated debate. Don’t pretend like that’s such a foreign topic, everyone on here does it. I’ve seen it. They debate over even more stupid issues, sometimes things that don’t involve baseball.
Whatever, I’ll just drop it here. Simply wanted to make my counter-argument somewhere where it cant get deleted. Call it trolling or whatever, I don’t really care, it wasn’t exactly intended as such, but it is what it is. Its a topic to debate, with some frustration. I’m glad you don’t delete articles here because your friend tells you to.
"I signed with the Milwaukee Braves for three-thousand dollars. That bothered my dad at the time because he said he didn't have that kind of dough." - Ueck
by GormanBraun28 on Jan 11, 2011 4:32 PM CST up reply actions
Dont want to add fuel to your fire here
But I dont see anything that would merit Peralta as more than a #3 or #4 starting pitcher becuase he lacks command and he lacks a plus pitch. The reports I have seen from BA, BP and Sickels all point to the same conclusion for me.
Can he break out and suddenly learn to command his pitches better? It definitely a possibility, but even then hes a guy with a plus slider and two average pitches, which would put a guy at the bottom of an MLB rotation.
As for your other points, you might want to look at some of the bylaws of various message boards. Its a big no no, no matter where you go to copy and paste paid for materials from places like Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or ESPN. Any moderator worth his weight either deletes, strongly advises against or simply wont allow copywrighted materials to be posted on their boards.
Its an interesting read
but that’s not why you posted it.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
Rogers is near-MLB ready, and these lists usually heavily favor that, so I can see him still being #1.
I wonder where Covey would have ranked though.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Maybe #3-5?
I’d take Rogers, Scarpetta and maybe Kentrail Davis first…that’s about it for me.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
With no professional experience?
I’m sure he would have been sent straight home to rest and learn about living with Diabetes. By sheer stuff alone, he’s probably a top 10 guy, but with no professional experience, I’d have a tough time putting him in the top 5.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
I'd have a tough time putting him in most top 5's.
But, if you were offered the ability to trade away one Brewer prospect for Covey, the only three I wouldn’t give up right now are the three I listed above. Are there more on your list?
Now that's great tasting chicken!
McCalvey
Do you think the Brewers might bring back Scott Podsednik to help in the outfield? I would be very happy with Carlos Gomez as a fourth outfielder, but I don’t think he has what it takes to be an everyday center fielder.
— John H., Morris, Ill.
The Brewers are going to give Gomez another shot. He’s 25, he’s a plus defender on a team with two new high-profile pitchers, he’s relatively affordable at $1.5 million and he’s playing for a new manager (Ron Roenicke) who wants to run. It looks like it’s Gomez’s job to lose.As opposed to Posednik, who would be a plus defender on a team with two new high-profile pitchers, is relatively affordable at $1.6 million, would be playing for a manager who wants to run, and actually knows how to hit, get on base, and steal bases by the bushel. There’s something wrong with Posednik obviously, or else he wouldn’t be the journeyman he is, but it probably isn’t anything that isn’t even more broken with CarGo.
A plus defender, Podsednik ain't.
In the last two years, his UZR/150 numbers have been (-0.1) and (-11.0), respectively.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
A CF he ain't, either
He’s played a total of 101 games at CF since 2005
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 11, 2011 1:03 PM CST up reply actions
I was actually surprised by his numbers on offense last year.
OBP wasn’t hideous, and SLG numbers weren’t Kendallian.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
SP?
OPS+ only 1 point higher than Gomez, and on the decline, that’s all I need to see. Though, yeah, it was better than I thought it’d be too.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
I didn't think he'd sniff a .340 OBP.
I was impressed, sort of.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
forgot to carry the 20
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Compared to Gomez he is.
297/342/387 vs 247/298/357
I still prefer Gomez though. The hit on D & the basepaths isn’t worth it.
Are we still doing the "a couple 3-for-4s and Gomez is right where he needs to be" joke
or is that passe now?
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
.260 or bust baby.
I should probably also add that I’m assuming a GoGo/CDick platoon.
Seems to be the best course of action right now.
I want to see a buddy cop film
featuring characters named GoGo and CDick.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
Are those not the same joke?
I haven’t been paying attention.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
But he brings a really hot wife to the team
Sabermetrics hasn’t found a really good way to put an organizational value on that yet. Which is surprising, because the research would be stimulating.
When there is a scuffle in Ireland, there’s no need to specifically mention in the news story that alcohol was involved
by Getting Yosted on Jan 11, 2011 1:12 PM CST up reply actions
Its your calling, man.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions
Um. No.
Pods is not a plus defender (especially in CF) and his SB success rate was only 70% last year. GoGo was over 85%.
Yeah, he's just another Gomez hater
that’ll take anything but Gomez, without actually comparing the two.
Twitterize me: @mykenk
by Mykenk on Jan 11, 2011 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Eh
I don’t think I agree with that classification of nullact. Also, I don’t feel that way personally, although I’m not a fan of Gomez at all. In fact, I think I actually do hate him. That doesn’t mean I’m irrational, though. I think the platoon is what needs to be in effect this season, although I’d honestly prefer to see CDick lose the job before a platoon happens.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 11, 2011 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
In vitally important news...
2008 Brewers are currently better than the 1929 Cubs: http://som50th.kwrhodes.com/index.html
Mind you, considering at present the 2008 Rays are edging out the 1929 Yankees as well…
Ready and able to turn any discussion into one about Russell Oles Branyan...
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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