Thursday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 9:48 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while doing the darnedest things.
There's a fair amount of excitement about the 2011 Brewers lately, but apparently none of that enthusiasm has reached Bristol, Connecticut. ESPN announced April and May's lineup for Sunday Night Baseball and the Brewers have been left out. Here's a look at the games they're passing over:
| Date | Opponent |
| April 3 | @ Reds |
| April 10 | vs Cubs |
| April 17 | @ Nationals |
| April 24 | vs Astros |
| May 1 | @ Astros |
| May 8 | @ Cardinals |
| May 15 | vs Pirates |
| May 22 | vs Rockies |
| May 29 | vs Giants |
I can see not wanting to televise a game against the Nationals, Astros or Pirates, but any of the rest of those matchups would have pretty significant storylines and a 60% chance of seeing Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum or Yovani Gallardo. I don't get the decision to miss out on that.
Maybe it's a Worldwide Leader conspiracy: Jim Caple rated all 30 teams by misery yesterday, and listed the Brewer fan base as the third worst. I don't know about you, but I'm not miserable at all lately. (h/t @Bill_TPA)
Here's some Brewer love from an unexpected source: Gas House Graphs recently held a roundtable to discuss the 2011 NL Central, and all three writers mentioned the Brewers as a leading candidate to win the division.
Meanwhile, here's day two of reaction to Trevor Hoffman's retirement:
- Adam McCalvy has some of Hoffman's quotes about the Brewers from his farewell conference call yesterday.
- Hoffman also spoke with XX Sports Radio in San Diego. (FanShot)
- Bud Selig issued a statement.
- Sunil Joshi of MLB.com has a collection of reactions from around the baseball world.
- Larry Stone of the Seattle Times considered Hoffman's Hall of Fame credentials.
- Jayson Stark says Hoffman is "a no-doubt Hall of Famer."
- Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew says "it's hard to imagine that baseball's all-time saves leader - a guy who's closed down 601 games, pitched 18 seasons and developed one of the game's best changeups - did anything to warrant waiting past his first year of eligibility to get elected."
- Keith Law is leaning towards voting against him.
- Hall of Fame Communication Director Craig Mulder sees Hoffman as one of many potential first ballot selections over the next few years.
- Jeff Miller of the Orange County Register danced with Hoffman once.
- Babes Love Baseball said goodbye.
While Trevor Hoffman is on his way out, a new Brewer is making his way in: The organization has signed Eulogio de la Cruz to a minor league deal. De la Cruz, who is 27, spent the 2010 season pitching for the Yakult Swallows in Japan. Before that, he had pitched in 15 major league games over the 2007-09 seasons as a member of the Tigers, Marlins and Padres. He spent most of the 2009 season in AAA in San Diego's organization, making 48 appearances (four starts) with a 3.12 ERA, 44 walks and 59 strikeouts in 69.1 IP.
File this under "Don't hold your breath:" Vaughn's Valley listed Carlos Gomez as the #9 Brewer critical to 2011 success.
Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker is still analyzing key plate appearances from the 2010 season. Today he looks at an August 4 matchup between Manny Parra and Blake DeWitt that marks the beginning of the end of Parra's time as a starter.
In the minors:
- Remember April, when Wisconsin's Opening Day game was snowed out and the players built a snowman instead? Scooter Gennett and that snowman will be featured on the Timber Rattlers' Opening Day bobblehead. Follow that link for pictures and to learn how to get tickets.
- Voting is open for the #9 spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. As of this writing, Tyler Thornburg leads Erik Komatsu by 15 votes.
Around baseball:
Angels: Signed catcher Jeff Mathis to a one year, $1.7 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Cubs: Signed catcher Koyie Hill to a one year deal, avoiding arbitration, and outfielder Reed Johnson to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed outfielder Dewayne Wise, catcher Clint Sammons and infielder Joe Thurston to minor league deals.
Rays: Have reportedly signed reliever Kyle Farnsworth to a one year, $3.25 million deal.
Rockies: Signed reliever Matt Belisle to a one year, $2.35 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Tigers: Signed outfielder Ryan Raburn to a two year, $3.4 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Today in former Brewers: Brad Nelson, who led the Dominican Republic in home runs this winter, has signed a minor league deal with the Rangers.
FanGraphs unveiled a pretty cool new tool yesterday: WAR Grids allow you to sort selected players by their fWAR and see how their numbers were accumulated by season. If you'd like to start with a sad example, here are the 25 best Brewer catchers of all time.
I don't golf, but maybe you do? If so, perhaps you'll be interested in the inaugural Wisconsin Sports Tweeters Open Golf Outing, scheduled for June in Green Bay.
On this day in 1982, Hank Aaron was elected to the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. He appeared on 97.8% of ballots, the second highest total of all time.
On this day in 2005, Major League Baseball approved the sale of the Brewers to Mark Attanasio.
On this day in 2009, the Brewers signed Trevor Hoffman to a one year, $6 million deal with a club option for 2010.
With help from Brewerfan.net and the B-Ref Play Index, happy birthday today to:
- Helena Brewer Eric Marzec, who turns 23.
- Helena Brewer Reggie Keen, who also turns 23.
- 2005-07 Brewer Jose Capellan, who turns 30.
- 2007 Brewer Elmer Dessens, who turns 40.
- 1985-88 Brewer Billy Jo Robidoux, who turns 47.
- 1988 Brewer Odell Jones, who turns 58.
- 1979 Brewer Bob Galasso, who turns 59.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go study.
Drink up.
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Who voted against Hank Aaron?
And did they get to keep their credentials to continue to vote for the Hall of Fame
by Saberilliterate on Jan 13, 2011 9:57 AM CST reply actions
That's exactly what I was thinking.
You gotta wonder why no player has ever recieved 100% vote.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 13, 2011 10:47 AM CST up reply actions
b/c this was first ballot
Jackie Robinson is the only person that I could see as first ballot almost 100%. Not even Ruth or the non-radio Ted Williams.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Really?
In what way is Willie Mays not a HOFer? What possible excuse could that 5% of voters have for not voting for him?
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 13, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions
I'm saying "first ballot" at 95+ percent
they’re definitely HOFers, and probably first ballot (along with Clemente), but with the number of writers that are resistant to anyone getting in on the first try (and the limited number of votes in a year allowed), there are going to be enough players that don’t have the combination of >95% on first ballot.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:02 PM CST up reply actions
I disagree
There are some legends that are simply no brainers for the Hall
Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Lou Gehrig, Jackie Robinson, Willie Mays…
The fact that anyone with a vote could possible make a coherent argument on why they shouldn’t be in the hall of fame is astounding to me.
by Saberilliterate on Jan 13, 2011 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
My guess
A few times a year, someone gets desperate for attention and sends in a blank ballot so they can write about why. Add in a couple of mistake ballots, and I’d guess you find the roughly 3% of voters who leave the no-brainers out.
The other possible situation is vote preservation. If there were 11 guys you wanted to vote for, you could leave Aaron off because you know he’ll get in.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
vote preservation
is definitely a factor, provided they think that >10 are worthy in a particular year (or they want to “make a statement” about someone that should get consideration…or they think that someone should be propped up above the 5% minimum threshhold to get a try in a weaker year, etc)
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:04 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think that's a poor reason...
just because it’s his first time on the ballot, does it diminish his worthiness to be in the HOF?
I could maybe see that as a reason if each writer could only vote for one player, but they can each vote for up to 10 players.
Tom Seaver received the highest percentage of votes in 1992 (98.84%, 425/430)… his first year on the ballot.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
There are voters who won't allow anyone in unanimously
Just because Babe Ruth wasn’t a unanimous pick…their convoluted reasoning is if Ruth wasn’t in at 100%, nobody can be. Of course, that’s stupid reasoning because balloting in the early days of the Hall was a mess, but those voters will be out of the voting pool eventually.
But their genes will still be in the gene pool…
by Saberilliterate on Jan 14, 2011 7:30 AM CST up reply actions
Hall of Fame voting
I still think it is ridiculous that some writers think that players belong in the hall of fame, but won’t vote for them on the “first ballot.” If you, Mr. or Ms. Writer, think that a player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, vote for them the first, second, third, and seventeenth times if necessary.
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.
They’ll probably keep doing it until a “second ballot” hall of famer dies between the first and second ballot.
probably won't affect them
they’re not the Nobel prize. They award HoF posthumously, correct?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
I think it's important to remember that a lot of the HOF voters are old school "columnist" types.
Many of them reached this based on their ability to raise readership by spouting controversial nonsense. See Mariotti, Jay.
When you build a community where a large portion of people are writers like that, you’re going to end up developing all kinds of bizarre logic.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I remember Odell Jones!
he took a no-hitter into the 9th before it was broken up. i listened to the broadcast on the way back to GB from a Foxes game in my old man’s Dodge Aspen!
Wow.
I had no idea what it was called, but now I remember Odell Lake too.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 11:49 AM CST up reply actions
never heard of it,
but I’m tempted to seek it out to play now. What platforms was it available on? That looks like commadore?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
I played it on the Apple IIGS, IIRC
Mostly in school, in about third grade.
Looks like you can find ROMs for it pretty easily.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 13, 2011 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
I suppose the fish graphics are "pretty good" - at least better than Comm or Atari
so IIGS makes sense. I had one of those once upon a time. I remember playing the game Marble Madness incessantly.
It was one of only 2 games we had (the other being Chessmaster 2000).
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
You can make the Mackinaw trout try and eat the otter?
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
kirbir
it’s its you’re your
I think it comes down to text lingo abbreviating everything until they’re no longer words
Milwaukee is a baseball town
It apparently surprises even other major leaguers. From Hoffman,
“To have interaction with such passionate, rabid fans, and see the support they gave the club those two years, it was a breath of fresh air,” Hoffman said. “It was something I really look back on with great memories.”
Nice to know the players appreciate fan involvement. If the quotes interesting, though, because the Padres attendance in 2007 and 2008 was actually pretty good. Maybe the Milwaukee fans are just more enthusiastic than San Diego?
Let’s hope Grienke and Marcum enjoy their time in Milwaukee. I would think the Royals fanbase is pretty rabid, too, but at average 52.9% capacity (1,615,327) there aren’t a whole lot of them coming to the games these days. All I know about Toronto’s support was the worst in the majors last year with only 39.9% capacity (1,625,555).
For the record, in 2010 the Brewers still had over 80% capacity. The 2008 and 2009 Brewers were above 88%. Go Brewers!
by ecocd on Jan 13, 2011 10:48 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I remember ushering in county
We had probably 40% capacity on weekends (Fri nights, Saturday nights). Family days were sometimes packed, if coupled wiht a give-away.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
take that quote an eat it Caple
Hoffman knows how rabid we are.
Miserable fanbases don’t put up 80% capacity in a down year.
in conclusion, I wish you a violent case of elephant herpes.
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
by Hyatt on Jan 13, 2011 10:59 AM CST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
"misery index" is just a catchy name, but not at all what it actually measures
If you look at his “calculations” for misery, they weight historical misery the same as current misery. We’re not miserable now, but I’m sure KL wasn’t super pumped about the 245 consecutive seasons of losing records or the 345 year postseason drought.
I wholeheartedly agree that the Brewers fans are not a miserable now, but taken as a long view, it hasn’t been great to be a Brewers fans for the past 20+ years.
by ecocd on Jan 13, 2011 12:42 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
According to him, our outlook for the future
is twice as miserable as the Nationals, and more miserable than the Astros.
The Nationals thing is easy to explain with the “STRASBURG HARPER OMG!!!!!!!” factor, because ESPN has actually heard of those guys.
The Astros, though? That’s just inexplicable.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 13, 2011 2:11 PM CST up reply actions
We "gutted" the farm and are doomed to lose 100 games forever now, didn't you hear?
Escobar, Lawrie and Odorizzi are each going to be 20 WAR/season superstars.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
I think % capacity is only relevant when you're discussing teams that are close to capacity.
I don’t think it’s relevant to discuss Toronto. Their ballpark is so massive that they’d be drawing great crowds at 60-65%.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
true
what matters is raw numbers. then close to capacity, number of sellouts (rather than average % of max capacity in the season) is probably a better indicator.
Unless we’re talking of building new stadiums…then the percent capacity can come into play (and number of sellouts at the current capacity)
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
But...
An owner would make more money with a 20,000 person stadium at capacity, than a 40,000 person stadium with 20,000.
They could charge more due to supply/demand and (probably) having a better stadium experience.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 13, 2011 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
that's why % capacity comes into play for new stadiums
and there’s always going to be flux. the 40K stadium would still be sold out on opening day and for the best promotion of the year ($1 general admission day:P).
Having a few of those days in a year might balance out the additional security and other staff (per fan) needed in half-capacity days
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Perception is reality
I would argue that in terms of “rabid fans” or perceived fan support, % capacity is actually more important than total attendance. As far as revenue is concerned, of course total attendance is the only thing that matters. When I go to a game and I see half the stands empty, even if there are 20,000 people there it feels like the stadium is empty. As a player, I’m sure empty seats would be more dispiriting than the actual turnstile numbers.
This is meant to be within reason. I wouldn’t say that a 4,000 seat stadium at 100% capacity would be better than 40,000 at 50%. I would rather be at a 30,000 seat stadium with 20,000 people than a 40,000 seat stadium with the same 20,000 people.
I for one am happy that the Brewers are left out of the ESPN schedule.
We all know what happens when the Brewers are on national TV.
My goodness.
Maybe ESPN read the new fangraphs article
About how Yuniesky Betancourt was going to cost the Brewers the World Series and destroy the rotator cuffs of the entire pitching staff: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-defense/
by The Left Button on Jan 13, 2011 10:56 AM CST up reply actions
I'm going to put my fingers in my ears, close my eyes and yell, "I can't heeeear you."
Betancourt simply got bored in Kansas City. Milwaukee will bring him around and he’ll be replacement level at shortstop. This is my new Spring Training Hope Springs Eternal (STrHoSE) stance.
by ecocd on Jan 13, 2011 11:05 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Witrado approves
I mean, come on, it contains the word “hose.”
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 13, 2011 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
he'll probably sell out Yovanni in some elaborate deportation scheme
when someone comes to break his legs.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
this scares me mote than anything in the upcoming year.
you think the O’s will take a bag of balls for JJ now?
"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ
by Hyatt on Jan 13, 2011 11:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Or a speedy CF who hopes to one day hit .260?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Jan 13, 2011 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Just when I had gotten kind of okay with Yuni being on the team
I just HAD to see this article.
Anyway, I’m just telling myself he’ll be platooned, more or less, and maybe he’ll finally live up to some of his potential, and if he doesn’t, we’ll get a new shortstop at the deadline. That might be wishful thinking, but I WANT TO BELIEVE!!
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
Even if Betancourt is a complete mess in the field
I don’t think Roenicke will let it go so long that it’ll hurt the Brewers’ chances to make the playoffs.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
the problem is...
then it’s typical for the guy to sit on the bench. The guy is a clubhouse cancer from what I’ve read. Just cut him and move on.
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
Good point
Again, I don’t think it’ll get that far. DM has shown that he is willing to DFA players and eat their salaries. Betancourt’s $3M is a drop in the bucket compared to what they’ve eaten recently.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I know there should be a few SS available at the deadline
But what do the Brewers have left to deal for whomever that might be? My thought is that the roster/farm are maxed out to the point that any injury or lapse in performance will hurt the playoff chances. They need almost perfect reality meeting expectations for them to be close enough for the playoffs.
And if they are still in it come July, and Betancourt plays to his ability, who gets dealt? If you were going to try to go out and get a Furcal or Wilson or Hardy or Stephen Drew, Jose Reyes, etc…there isnt one piece in the organization to make that trade and improve the team.
And what about the money? If the team breaks even in 08 with 3 million fans and a playoff spot, and it appears that they are close to max out on payroll now, where does the money come from if you dont have the prospects needed for the contra team?
Well, like I said, acquiring a SS at the deadline is pretty much wishful thinking on my part
I don’t think payroll would be an issue, though; the past few years, they’ve seemed to budget for a midseason acquisition, and I think they’d be doing the same thing this year.
As for the cost in players, well, the O’s got a full season of Hardy for two mediocre relievers, so half a season can’t cost more than one mediocre reliever, right? :-p
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
Neither were SS
But the Brewers were able to get middle IF – Durham and Lopez for two non-prospects.
The trade market changes drastically midseason for average players, its more about being able to take salary and less about giving up prospects.
I don’t think anyone here really knows anything about the Brewers finances.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 13, 2011 12:02 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
If held to form
I would estimat Hardy to have 1 WAR to offer the Brewers at the deadline at most, to go along with his $1.7 million he would be due for the remainder of the season, $2 million surplus. I cant imagine there would be any draft compensation for him, nor that they would even offer him arbitration if acquired.
The net affect would maybe be a half game at this point if they were going to acquire a Hardy type player to improve defense the last 2 months. It might cost them a Dan Merklinger to the O’s for instance. Not a whole lot to sacrifice to improve by a half game Probably doesnt improve you to the point of making a difference though. I would guess that an improving deal would have to be for an average defender with a plus bat, which they just dont have the pieces to pick up.
At least all of the teen age girls would be happy with Hardy back in town.
You're making the assumption that Betancourt would be neutral
If Betancourt projects to -0.5 WAR (not saying he will, just hypothetical), then Hardy’s +1.0 WAR is actually work +1.5 WAR. Of course, if he’s -0.5 WAR by the All-Star Break we can hope and pray that Cruz even at 0.0 WAR is called up.
Fortunately, as noted above, I have now decided to believe that Betancourt will find new motivation for the game and be at least +1.5 WAR on the year.
For prosperity's sake
Ive got him at 0.6 project that out for two months after the deadline, along with Counsell’s similar number, thats .4 WAR if you keep the 2 as is. Hardy I figured would be worth .8 for the last two months. So you gain a half game or so by replacing Betancourt/Counsell with Hardy.
I’ve not seen Betancourt play, but I dont think the problem is motivation, its the fact that he has a big body at a position where quickness is key. He could possibly hit his way to that 1.5, but to learn speed and improve defense, just cant really go along with your thought there, especially at his age. If he were to put up that kind of a number it could be the difference between the division and an “oh so close” type of season.
body
so wheeler is really screwed then?
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
Dont know much about his defense
But if he is quick enough to play at SS, then he doesnt need to learn the quickness needed for the position. But the article does state that Betancourt has problems getting to balls because he is too bulky for the position.
Tulowitzki has a third basemans body, but can handle SS defensively for quickness and arm. Its been done and its not impossible, but to learn that quickness once a guy bulks is pretty hard to do, and I think thats the issue with Betancourt.
Know what's funny?
Scouting reports on Betancourt when he came up were really similar to Escobars. Both were skinny, quick latin players who were supposed to be defensive wizards but nobody was sure if they would be able to hit.
Just wait a couple years, college boy.
Pokey Stix will kill your metabolism, too.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
by Rubie Q on Jan 13, 2011 2:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I doubt Jordan's entire career depends upon how many Pokey Stix he consumes
And if he were guaranteed $5 million this year regardless of how many Pokey Stix he ate, there might be no incentive to stop eating Pokey Stix. :D I know I probably wouldn’t.
I'm just sayin':
don’t hate on the chubby. We all used to wear size 32 slacks before age and inertia caught up with us.
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
I wore size 32 when I was in the 5th grade
(maybe earlier)
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 14, 2011 8:01 AM CST up reply actions
Trust me that I'm playing Devil's Advocate here
His defense has decreased while he’s advanced towards peak performance.
Year/Innings/UZR
2005 / 454 / 0.0
2006 / 1374 / 0.0
2007 / 1302 / -4.3
2008 / 1325 / -11.4
2009 / 1159 / -16.7
2010 / 1331 / -9.5
2005-2008 was in Seattle, 2009 was split between Seattle and Kansas City, 2010 was Kansas City. UZR supposedly takes park factors into account by position. In those years, only in 2007 was he playing on a winning team.
Given that age shouldn’t be a concern for him since he’s still relatively young, how could one explain the decrease in defensive ability? Looking at them as 3-year rolling averages, it’s even a more dramatic decrease.
How could he just flat out forget how to play his position? He was just fine for the first three years. Not good, but not bad. Say it was body size. That’s something that could be fixed. If it’s injury history (which I couldn’t readily find), then that’s simple luck and we can hope for a healthy 2011. If it was clubhouse engagement, then assuming he wasn’t the problem he’ll find a great atmosphere with the Brewers.
There’s room for optimism, because he showed historically that he has the potential to be an average defender at his position. He’s also shown lately that he’s terrible so there isn’t room for a lot of optimism.
Easier rose-colored glasses to fit on: his -2 Rfield last season (i.e. slightly below average)
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
+0.6 WAR haflway through? Really?
His last 3 season fWAR: 0.4, -1.7, 0.6
I’ve written extensively on why I believe he has the potential to get worse in 2010 compared to 2011 and my optimistic view of why he could get better.
Would you care to share your reasons for believing he’ll be returning to his 2007 form? I’ll be quite happy if he does and I’d love for you to be able to convince me.
0.6 for the full year
I was projecting it out for the last two months of the season, and adding in what Counsell might contribute, which would be 0.1 war per month…..4 total compared to the .8 for two months I would project for Hardy….
That's a big more in line with everyone
But as you’ll recall, he’s going to become really motivated and make a transformation becoming a 1.5-2.0 WAR player overnight when he rediscovers his love of the game.
Frankly
I’m just happy people are suggesting the Brewers are that close to a World Series contending team.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 13, 2011 11:22 AM CST up reply actions
That's a pretty dumb article.
Why does it matter that we lose RAR on defense going from Escobar to Betancourt when they were either equal in overall value (fWAR) or Betancourt was much better overall (rWAR) last season? That’s a net upgrade…
Nevermind the fact that other defensive metrics (TotalZone) suggest Betancourt was actually a better defender than Escobar last season.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
The article was about the decrease in WAR from your pitchers due to "extra" outs
Your starting pitcher can go 100 pitches. Let’s say a good defender makes an out the worse defender would have missed (not even errors, just good plays). On average, that’s 4 pitches you’ve saved your pitcher on the next at bat alone. Tack on an average of about 2 more pitches for every time that batter gets on base vs. getting out. Those are 6 pitches, on average, that your 6 WAR star pitcher is throwing compared to the 0.5 WAR reliever that’s coming in to replace those 6 pitches.
If you believe that pitch count isn’t as important as stressful innings (I believe this is what Yost believed), then this effect is magnified, because those 15 pitch innings could become 25 pitch innings over 30% of the time when an “extra” out is given.
The difference between starter innings and reliever innings is an impact the fielding WAR doesn’t/couldn’t take into account entirely. If your starters are only as good as your relievers then the only impact of poor fielding is the average runs scored by each “extra” out. Given that the Brewers actually have GOOD starting pitching this year, the impact of poor defense will be magnified compared to years previous.
I believe the premise of the article completely, but it was an analytical article without the analytics. If there are editors at FanGraphs, I’m a bit surprised it made it through.
That effect may very well exist, but to suggest that a single player (Betancourt) could have a noticeable impact on the team’s win total is probably overstating things way too much. Measuring the impact of defense on pitch counts over an entire team is probably obscured by the inherent range of error in current defensive metrics, much less an individual player.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Hence my desire for analytics
It feels very much like trying to justify an intangible as quantifiable without putting in the legwork to quantify it. It has just enough logic to it that I wouldn’t be surprised if someone presented me with a study that said “on average an error cost a team 0.25 runs for every point of difference between the starter’s FIP and the bullpen’s FIP.” I also wouldn’t be surprised if someone presented me with a study that says “there’s too much noise in the data to tell how much, if any, impact Starter/Reliever FIP differential has on runs allowed due to an error.”
Also curiously absent from the article is the fact that the Cardinals probably project to have an even worse defense than the Brewers.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
That was brought up in the comments, and is most likely accurate.
I am genuinely curious to watch Betancourt day to day. He’s pissed off two very smart fanbases by showing a lack of effort and terrible defense, not to mention terrible plate discipline, and the defensive numbers back up him being brutal in the field. I wish they’d just sign somebody already.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
DM gave every indication that he believes Betancourt isn't bad in the field
I don’t know that he gave the impression that he was expecting good defense from Betancourt, but that was certainly cited as his reason for starting.
Was that you wish they would sign someone because you want it to happen or you wish they would sign someone, because it’s an inevitability?
I don't think they're going to
I do think people looked at Melvin’s comments pretty postively. This shows a different perspective. “Decent” and “will do ok”. I don’t know, still don’t think they’ll pick someone up but I don’t think they’re sold on him.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
And I suppose they wouldn't say anything about pursuing someone else, either
If there’s someone available as Spring Training nears and if Yuni comes to camp looking more like Fielder than Weeks, they might go looking. I guess we’ll see.
Casey hits game-winning homers?
I’m not smart enough to look at the other stuff and do anything but drool and mumble.
And Hoffman blows easy saves.
Quite painfully, I might add.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 13, 2011 11:09 AM CST up reply actions
Just to nit-pick
Those dates are all Saturdays, We play the same teams a day later though. I’m with BrewHaHeather though, ESPN games just make me miss slightly more baseball as I instinctively turn on FSN first.
I think BrewHaHeather is talking about
The fact that the Brewers have been terrible on national TV over the past few years.
by Cheeseandcorn on Jan 13, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
I figured, yeah
I was just saying it doesn’t matter to me whether they’re on ESPN or FSN. They can be on ESPN plenty when September and October roll around ;)
Aw crap, forgot about that.
Now if they make the playoffs, they’re not going anywhere.
My goodness.
by BrewHaHeather on Jan 13, 2011 12:07 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks for the correction.
Don’t drink and Mug, kids.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 13, 2011 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
I thought that was the only way to mug.
by BrewCrewBrian on Jan 13, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
I thought the only way
was with the threat of violence, perhaps involving a knife or handgun
by PagsBrewCrew on Jan 13, 2011 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
Just because
My favorite OV comment about Prince missing the fan fest thing
takashi saito can make it to milwaukee to sign his contract and get a physical, but not to go to the on deck show? shame on him. some people would like to see him.
Get a ife broseph
Rafael Soriano to the Yankees: 3 year/$45 million
Meanwhile, we got a better pitcher for 1 year/$1.75 million guaranteed. Just sayin’
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
That contract is insane
But I hope you dont mean Saito.
Soriano has nasty stuff and is 10 years younger. I would much rather have Soriano than Saito.
Previous
1 Year:
Saito: 54.0 IP, 11.50 K/9, 2.83 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.83 xFIP
Soriano: 62.1 IP, 8.23 K/9, 1.73 ERA, 2.81 FIP, 3.81 xFIP
3 Years:
Saito: 156.7 IP, 10.40 K/9, 2.59 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 3.59 xFIP
Soriano: 152.0 IP, 10.36 K/9, 2.43 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 3.50 xFIP
5 Years:
Saito: 299.3 IP, 11.00 K/9, 2.19 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 3.21 xFIP
Soriano: 284.0 IP, 9.82 K/9, 2.54 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 3.68 xFIP
And that’s including Saito’s uncharacteristic down year (in terms of peripherals) in 2009 that he fully rebounded from last season. They’re both injury risks, but Saito has actually been more durable over the past few seasons.
I would honestly rather have Saito on a one year deal.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Although ZiPS slightly favors Soriano,
2011 Soriano: 2.91 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 10.4 K/9
2011 Saito: 3.08 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 10.1 K/9
I’d still rather have Saito though, because I think his 2009 season in Boston was an outlier. He seems much more comfortable in the NL.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
Also, those projections are based on Soriano being on the Rays (superb defense) and Saito on the Braves (terrible defense)
I’m not sure how much team defense factors into ZiPS projections though; in theory it should have no impact on FIP or K/9.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
That is a fantastic job by his agent
There is no way the Yankees could have been bidding against another team with that amount of money and years.
Get a ife broseph
Wow, that's crazy.
It won’t hurt them, I’m sure, but what an awful deal. I’m beginning to think a team should never give a free agent reliever more than a year and this happens.
E: George 4 (5, throw, throw, throw, throw).
I don't recall where the article was, but the 3-year contract made a resurgence this year
I think there were two other relievers that got 3-year contracts after all the teams seemed to have finally collectively realized that only in the most special of special cases is a reliever worth more than 1 year. Unless he’s DHing on the side, 3/$35 million is a contender for the worst signing of the offseason and that’s saying a lot.
The thing saving it, of course
is that it’s the Yankees, and 3/35 for them is like a year at the league minimum for everyone else.
I may have slightly exaggerated those figures. Slightly.
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
by Lefti on Jan 13, 2011 10:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Haha, oops. That should be 3 years/$35 million
Doesn’t make the deal much better though.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
ESPN
As someone else said having the Crew NOT on national TV isn’t a bad thing. Was tired of telling friends to watch the Crew get shallacked on National TV.
I am sure the Eastern Seaboard Sports Network will fill us full of Yanks-RSox. I am sure we will get a dose when the Crew heads to Yankee Stadium.
Tim Bring back the chalet,frank charles at the wurlitzer organ, bob betts at the mic, and the barrell man logo!!!!
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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