Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while asking the important questions.
Here's something we haven't discussed yet: Now that the Brewers have plugged the holes in their pitching staff, they're under a fair amount of pressure to win in 2011 under first time manager Ron Roenicke. Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune notes that it's relatively rare for a first-timer to go to the playoffs in his inaugural season. (h/t BBTF)
I might as well get all the buzzkills out of the way early: Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar remembers the excitement surrounding the 2000 Brewers, who went 73-89.
The Brewers and their remaining arbitration-eligible players will exchange contract proposals tomorrow, with both sides likely meeting near the midpoint of their offers soon after. Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Shaun Marcum, Kameron Loe and Manny Parra are the five players who remain unsigned. It's very unusual for the team to go to arbitration, but it did happen with Corey Hart last year.
Speaking of Hart, he was the subject of this week's Brewers Six Pack at The Official Site.
Congratulations are due out today to John Axford, who received a "Special Recognition Award" at Baseball Canada's annual banquet. With the exchange rate, it's worth roughly .75 American awards.
Today is a relatively interesting anniversary for Brewer catchers (see "On this day" below), so it's fitting that we have a story about Jonathan Lucroy: Vaughn's Valley listed him as the #8 Brewer critical to 2011 success.
A few months ago it would have been unthinkable, but the Brewers might be in position to outpitch the Cardinals in 2011. Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew has a comparison of the two rotations.
Here's a head-scratcher: Jon Heyman made a list of this offseason's most over and underpaid players, and Craig Counsell is listed as the second most overpaid. Counsell will make $1.4 million in 2011, and at most he's earning a few hundred thousand dollars more than he's worth.
In the minors:
- John Sickels of Minor League Ball briefly discussed Eric Arnett in this weekend's All Questions Answered thread, and gave the former #1 pick a "less than 50/50" shot at bouncing back in 2011.
- Sickels also listed Nick Bucci as one of his sleepers for 2011.
- Voting is open for the #12 spot in our BCB Community Prospect Rankings. By now you probably know what to do.
As if you needed another reason to be excited about the 2011 season, John & Cait have a reminder that the Brewers' 40 days of giveaways start today.
Elsewhere in promotions: Carson Cistulli of NotGraphs thinks the Brewers should add a Bob Uecker Day. It's worth a read.
Around baseball:
Athletics: Signed reliever Brian Fuentes to a two year, $10.5 million deal, signed reliever Grant Balfour to a two year, $8.1 million deal and avoided arbitration with reliever Brad Ziegler (1/$1.25m).
Blue Jays: Avoided arbitration with Carlos Villanueva (1/$1.415m)
Cardinals: Avoided arbitration with pitcher Kyle McClellan and signed pitchers Miguel Batista and Ian Snell and infielder Ramon Vazquez to minor league deals.
Mets: Signed infielder/outfielder Willie Harris and catcher Raul Chavez to minor league deals.
Orioles: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Adam Jones (1/$3.25m).
Phillies: Avoided arbitration with outfielder Ben Francisco (1/$1.175m)
Pirates: Signed reliever Jose Veras to a minor league deal.
Reds: Signed Joey Votto to a three year, $38 million deal, avoiding arbitration.
Royals: Signed pitcher Bruce Chen to a one year deal worth $2 million plus incentives, signed pitcher Jeff Francis to a one year, $2 million deal and avoided arbitration with infielder Alex Gordon (1/$1.15m)
Tigers: Signed reliever Joel Zumaya to a one year, $1.4 million deal (avoiding arbitration) and signed outfielder Timo Perez to a minor league deal.
Twins: Avoided arbitration with infielder Alexi Casilla (1/$865k) and re-signed DH Jim Thome to a one year, $3 million deal.
Today in former Brewer notes:
- Rob Deer was the subject of Friday's Cold Stahoviak at 7th Inning Stache.
- The B-Ref Blog notes that only 19 players have ever finished their careers with more than 500 doubles and a slugging percentage under .471: Two of them (Robin Yount and Paul Molitor) are former Brewers.
The Brewers are well represented here: Chris Jaffe of The Hardball Times made a list of the worst regular season game endings in major league history, and the Brewers have both a win (1998's Brant Brown game is #5) and a loss (a 1976 game against the Yankees at #1) on the list.
Here's an interesting note on aging players: In 2010, major leaguers combined to accomplish one of these feats 70 times:
- Hit at least 35 home runs (6)
- Drove in 100 runs (25)
- Posted an OBP over .400 (9) or a slugging percentage over .500 (30) in 400+ plate appearances
Yet, as Jayson Stark notes, no player over 35 accomplished any of those things.
Now, a potentially ugly baseball economics note: The Dodgers' future remains in a state of disarray following the McCourts' divorce, and they've been forced to borrow money from Fox to cover operating expenses.
On this day in 2000, catcher David Nilsson signed with Chunichi in Japan, ending his major league career. The deal included a clause allowing Nilsson to leave the team to play in the Olympics in Sydney. Nilsson spent his entire major league career as a Brewer, hitting .284/.356/.461 with 105 home runs between 1992-99. His final year was arguably his best, as he hit .309/.400/.554 and made the All Star team. Nonetheless, he was done as a major leaguer at 30 years old.
With help from the B-Ref Play Index and Brewerfan.net, happy birthday over the weekend to:
- 2001-02 Brewer Tyler Houston, who turns 40 today.
- 1971-76 Brewer Darrell Porter, who would have turned 59 today.
- Huntsville Star Zelous Wheeler, who turned 24 Sunday.
- Brevard County Manatee Juan Sanchez, who turned 24 on Sunday.
- Mitch Stetter, who turned 30 on Sunday.
- 1996-97 Brewer Ron Villone, who turned 41 on Sunday.
- 2000-02 and 2007 Brewer Ray King, who turned 37 on Saturday.
- Seattle Pilot Mike Marshall, who turned 68 Saturday.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to make a wish.
Drink up.
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fixed, thanks
That’s the kind of thing I never think to look for on the younger guys.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 17, 2011 10:42 AM CST up reply actions
Well, in this case "younger" means "people I wouldn't expect to be dead."
Small victory, I guess.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Admittedly I only glanced at the Heyman list of overpaid and underpaid
But I think it’s safe to say I see no reason to change my opinion that Jon Heyman doesn’t know what the hell he’s talking about
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
by Lefti on Jan 17, 2011 10:04 AM CST reply actions 2 recs
That list is crazy
8 of his top 20 “overpaid” were guys with one year deals, which are always slightly more because teams don’t have to commit an extra year or two. Guys like Cairo, Counsell and Carrasco are making close to minimum and still made the list.
He only put one of the ridiculous 3 year relievers deal on the list, and omitted Boras client Rafael Soriano from the list.
Get a ife broseph
Also
I find it hard to believe that Thome is underpaid at 3 mil for one year.
Maybe I am wrong but I thought that was a lot for him.
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
I can agree that its not bad
but would you go so far as to say that he is underpaid?
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
Yeah probably
He slugged .627 last year with a .412 OBP. He has had at least a .847 OPS every year since 2006. I’ll leave the surplus value to others, but he had to have been at worth $10-15MM to the Twins last year.
He’s old, a DH and basically a platoon player, so he’s not going to get paid a ton but he produces at the plate.
The biggest problem with Heyman’s list is he picked 37 players, which is way too many but of course gets fans of every team to click on his link and talk about it, so he accomplished his goal.
Get a ife broseph
that gets a rec
because it more eloquently captures the posts i was considering: “john heyman is an idiot” or “why are you wasting our time linking to heyman?”
by Capt Science on Jan 17, 2011 11:21 AM CST up reply actions
There's a Heyman and a Phil Rogers link in the Mug today, near the top.
If you hadn’t guessed, there’s not much going on.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Jan 17, 2011 11:30 AM CST up reply actions
well, i'm not picking on you
part of the beauty of the mug is that you feed the links to lazy people like me, and then we can choose to click it or ignore it. (and typically when you include heyman, i’ll ignore it.)
so i was more criticizing JH than anything else.
it actually makes me sad to think about what MLB Network has become versus what i had hoped. i really don’t like watching it, largely as a result of their on air personalities. it’s become a bad rip-off of “baseball tonight”, which i stopped watching years ago. (and i’ve heard “baseball tonight” is actually moving in the right direction these days.)
by Capt Science on Jan 17, 2011 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
I agree with Heyman, anything over the absolute minimum for Counsell is over paying, in my opinion.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:31 AM CST reply actions
Do you agree with him that giving Counsell a few hundred thousand dollars extra is the second worst overpay of the offseason?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 17, 2011 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
No, I agree that he is over payed for his true worth.
I think that giving the utility spot to Luis Cruz (or someone of his skill level) and using some of that Counsell money to sign Russell Branyan would be much more significant for the Brewers’ success.
Brewers’ lacked any type of power off the bench last year, which is why I assumed they let Inglett walk.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
That being said, I'm sure Branyan is still waiting it out for a starting job next year.
Although, I assume he has some type of loyalty to the Brewers for essentially resurrected his career, and wouldn’t mind coming back in a backup role.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
His roster spot is...and certainly that $1.4MM could have gone elsewhere to get some type of power bat on the bench.
Like I said, Luis Cruz can do exactly what Counsell did last year.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
No, his roster spot isn't preventing them from getting a bench bat
His roster spot is preventing Luis Cruz, a career .253/.290/.375 hitter in the minor leagues from being on the roster.
I highly doubt that they Brewers will be close to signing a power bench bat, but can’t because they’ve already committed $1.4MM to Counsell.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 17, 2011 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I have never said it was the sole reason why.
I think it is appropriate to assume that Counsell will decline again this year in respect to his offense and range in the field. May as well give Cruz a shot, as it won’t make much of a direct difference in wins or losses.
Regardless, even getting a bat like Laynce Nix on the bench would go a long way for the Brewers.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
And I thought you guys don't really use statistics like batting average here.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 11:53 AM CST up reply actions
What’s batting average?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 17, 2011 12:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Well, from reading many previous posts on here, it certainly seems like you all frown upon batting average, ERA, etc.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 12:06 PM CST up reply actions
I only frown upon stats if they go against the point I'm trying to make
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 17, 2011 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
If you’ve read enough to know that AVG and ERA are ‘frowned upon’, then I assume you have read why they are next to useless when used as a measuring stick for the quality/effectiveness of hitters and pitchers, respectively.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 17, 2011 1:46 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'd be fine having them both
If Counsell is giving you nothing and Cruz is performing better than usual in AAA you can make the switch. If Cruz is putting up a .275 OBP in AAA, no big loss.
With the question marks at SS, the more options you have the better. I don’t think Counsell’s salary is preventing them from making other moves. Assuming Cruz can match Counsell’s production is a pretty big leap of faith I’m not comfortable with.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 17, 2011 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
There truly is not much to match.
He had an okay year last year, but his value seems to be inflated heavily by the fact he is a Wisconsin native.
A lot of role players can hit .250, or whatever stats you wish to use on Counsell.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
There aren’t many players available who can play plus defense all around the diamond and hit as well as Counsell.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Jan 17, 2011 12:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He has value in his OBP and ability to play 3 positions with average defense
He’s also a left handed bat, which is nice on a team with 7 of 8 starting position players hitting right handed
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Jan 17, 2011 12:17 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He takes walks sweet...he also grounds out to first base 80% of the time.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions
OBP is the most important rate stat for hitters.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
+1
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 17, 2011 1:47 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
his value is based on how many positions he plays
Not necessarily “hits well”
Your comparable FA options this year were Nick Punto, who hasn’t signed with anyone yet, or Bill Hall, who signed with Houston for $3.25 million.
If a team wants a Counsell-type player without shelling out $$$$, they wait until spring training when teams start cutting the marginal players, or they make a trade at the AAA level, or they get utility guys in a big package trade. (BTW those are all the ways Craig Counsell actually was acquired by various teams!)
by morineko on Jan 17, 2011 3:33 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He had a career year in 2009 (age 38). I know he had a bit of a down year last season, though in a fairly small sample size, but I think you’re seriously underestimating his value.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
by SRB on Jan 17, 2011 12:18 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Hey! 2009 was a very small sample size...
He had his best year of his career at age 38…that seems to show that it was a fluke year, not a trend.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 12:19 PM CST up reply actions
2009 was twice as many PA as 2010
Fluke or not, there’s clearly no trend of him declining.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
He's 40...there is a trend in major league baseball that essentially shows 40 year old major leaguers will decline.
by HowardGreenFTW on Jan 17, 2011 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
Yes, but that's ignoring his actual results.
There are plenty of 40+ year olds who are still very good major leaguers.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
There also a trend that players who have a careet year in their first major league season will regress. Sorry, Casey.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
by Charlie Marlow on Jan 17, 2011 1:50 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Lots of trends
Players who don’t break out until age 27 don’t historically turn out to be above average – sorry Rickie
Players who have are signed as undrafted FAs don’t turn out – sorry Ax
Players suck at age 40 – sorry Edmonds
Heavy 18 year olds often don’t turn out to productive MLB players – sorry Prince
Historical trends are great to look at and should absolutely be considered, but using that as the sole basis for your decisions means you miss out on Edmonds last year, Axford, McGehee, Weeks and so on.
Get a ife broseph
Nothing about the Counsell signing is preventing the Brewers from adding another IF to the roster
They still have a roster spot open (I doubt they’ll have three catchers on Opening Day).
Also, I disagree with you that Cruz “can do exactly what Counsell did last year”. If Cruz put up .250/.322/.319, he’d have a career year.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Jan 17, 2011 2:37 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
1B Joey Votto gets $38/3
After his third year of increasing production and winning the NL MVP. Does it hurt Fielder’s chances of getting the $100MM contract he’s after?
yes, depending on what teams he's trying to deal with
Some teams deal with Boras better than others.
(There’s a reason Seth McClung changed agents, I suppose, and that was probably one of them.)
Liked the article on 15 worst endings, but
I feel like this game should’ve been included: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/ARI/ARI200807030.shtml
I had a link here to my blog, but it's now defunct and I guess I've lost the URL. Currently taking suggestions for a new signature.
Somebody want to do a quick and dirty analysis on how Gamel could break out in Yankee Stadium this year?
I haven’t seen a spray chart, but I’m assuming he’s got great pull power. I can’t wait to see Prince launch 3 in a game there, either.
http://www.mlbsoup.com
Here’s a really cool site that I saw linked to on Fangraphs a couple days ago (in that article about Garza). It looks like Fielder would have had 2+ more HR to RF last season, but 2 less to LF. Check out 2009 though, he would have had 7 more HR to RF and overall +5-6 HR! About 6 more HR to RF and 1 less to LF in 2008 too.
Ryan Braun: He loves it. -- Four pitchers in history with 8.5+ WAR and <250 IP seasons: Greg Maddux (age 29), Pedro Martinez (age 28), Roger Clemens (age 27), Zack Greinke (age 25).
whoa
missed that article. that link just blew my mind.
by Capt Science on Jan 17, 2011 5:27 PM CST up reply actions
There's little empirical info on Gamel
From his Texas Leaguers spray chart over his career he does look like he has power to left field, but he hits fairly well to all fields. The sample size is very small, but as a jumping off point, he might hit a few more to right at Yankees stadium than Miller Park, but it doesn’t have “breakout year” written over it.
As SRB pointed out, even Fielder could’ve expected at best 5-6 more HRs. Gamel != Fielder so if Gamel’s going to have a breakout year in Milwaukee, he’d probably have it in Yankees stadium and vice versa.
Not breakout year
I was talking about him having a breakout game. He could very well be up in the majors as a DH for that series/month of hell, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a big game. That could cue a big push in OV to move Hart to Center and put Gamel in RF. It could also provide a big boost in Gamel’s trade value if he goes yard a couple times..
http://www.mlbsoup.com
a couple times in the same inning!
Too close for missiles, I’m switching to Ueck.








































