NLCS Game 3 Weather Update

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 12, 2011 2:24 PM CDT in Conversation Starters

Get the Diamond Dry ready: I think we're still going to play baseball tonight.

There still hasn't been any official announcement regarding tonight's game but since we're spending most of the day discussing it, I figured I might as well post an updated look at the forecast for tonight. Here's the hour-by-hour chance of rain, according to the Weather Channel:

Hour	Chance of rain
7 pm	90%
8 pm	60%
9 pm	70%
10 pm	70%
11 pm	Not displayed
12-7 am	40%

Obviously, those numbers aren't very encouraging. For a bright side, though, take a look at the radar. The storm that appears to be our primary concern tonight is currently dumping rain on northern Arkansas. It's moving to the northeast (which is toward St. Louis), but if it stays on its current trajectory most of the storm and the heaviest rain will pass well east of Busch Stadium.

I'm not a meteorologist, but if I had to take a guess I'd say the two teams and MLB will find a big enough window to get tonight's game in.

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Hopefully

The game goes like this one (WARNING: BILL HALL CONTENT)

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 2:28 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I vividly remember listening to the outcome of this game on the radio outside of a CostCo while eating pizza.

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 12, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions

11pm = 70% chance

by Vee Sanford's Next-door Neighbor on Oct 12, 2011 2:29 PM CDT reply actions

Chance of rain: 90%

Chance of talking heads to use the rain delay time to worship Pujols’ 4-hit game and discuss his eventual rise to sainthood: 100%.

by nullacct on Oct 12, 2011 2:46 PM CDT reply actions

Kotsay starting in CF

Guessing it’s because in 12 ABs against Carp, Kotsay is .364 /.417/.455/.871

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 2:53 PM CDT reply actions

Which is, of course

A small sample size.

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions

7 of the PAs were in 1999 and 2000

So basically, it comes down to one start earlier this year where Kotsay went 3-for-4 with a walk against Carpenter.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 12, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions

And completely ignoring defense

Don’t forget completely ignoring defense.

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
2-time BCB Fantasy Baseball Champion

by GoGregGo on Oct 12, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions

RRR'd

If RRR is starting Kotsay because Morgan could end up punching out Carpenter, than TLR has gotten into Ron’s mind.

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions

If he's not playing Morgan anyways...why doesn't he let him punch Carpenter

He’ll get ejected and be out of the game. Either way Morgan’s not playing, but maybe he’ll mess-up Carpenter ;)

by Dexsting on Oct 12, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Or Pujols comes and decks Morgan

And also gets ejected.

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Now I find myself hoping for a rainout.

So RRR has time to rethink this.

by placidity on Oct 12, 2011 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

^ Exactly what I said when I heard that announcement.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

So stupid... so so stupid

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions

I was thinking more along the lines of "fucking idiotic", but then I'm in a shitty mood.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 12, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'l go with your sentiment

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions

You are joking, right?

This is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what should be done. No one is going to hit Carpenter. If no one will hit Carpenter, you play your best defender to prevent the opposing team from hitting Gallardo. He may as well start Green at 2nd, Morgan in RF, and find a way to call up Gamel to 3rd base. That way he can have 5 LHB in the line up. Heck, he should throw Narveson so he can have 6 LHB in the lineup. That’s obviously THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS.

Can’t Braun or Fielder step up here and punch Roenicke in the face? Show some leadership skills to save the manager from himself? I can’t believe he’s pulling this crap in the playoffs after sitting McGehee for non-performance. This is worse than starting Marcum as far as i’m concerned.

For every ball that Kotsay doesn’t get to Mark A should fine Roenicke $100,000. That might get his attention.

by ecocd on Oct 12, 2011 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

nope no joke

Kotsay on the lineup card starting in center, batting second.

I’m completely at a loss for words.

by Tristram28 on Oct 12, 2011 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions

This is exactly why I think Marcum will be starting if he gets anoother shot.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

70% of the time, it rains 100% of the time

by torts on Oct 12, 2011 3:03 PM CDT reply actions

I prefer to look at it this way.

83.666% of the time, it rains 83.666% of the time.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Oct 12, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions

No concept

This storm is a rain producer.

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

I don't get what you're trying to say here.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Oct 12, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Just quoting Ned Yost

sort of.

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

I do not know if it is the same storm that went through NW Arkansas this am

going to be a miserable night at the old ball park. It was so dark this am I joked with my son that he was going to “night school” :)

"It's a joke. It's all a joke.

by WSB Chris on Oct 12, 2011 3:10 PM CDT reply actions

Why dont they just close the roof?

It is a new ballpark isn’t it?

I hate Yuni.

by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 12, 2011 3:21 PM CDT reply actions 5 recs

Team in new stadiums without a roof should have to forfeit

if a game can’t be played due to the elements.

by Dexsting on Oct 12, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

They should just play the game at the nearest domed stadium.

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

You want the game to be played at the Edward Jones Dome?

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Oct 12, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions

I should have said nearest MLB dome.

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by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions

Like Houston’s “home” game a few years ago.

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions

Make-up day (if needed) Tuesday at Miller Park

by Dexsting on Oct 12, 2011 3:26 PM CDT reply actions

I follow the weather pretty closely...

And I think they will get the game in, there might be a few light showers from time to time, but all the heavy stuff has already moved east of the area. Play Ball.

by Bigdogg2002 on Oct 12, 2011 3:32 PM CDT reply actions

And....

I really really hate starting Kotsay over Gomez. In what could turn out to be a pitchers duel, I would rather have a good defender out there, then the left handed bat. I think it is the worst move I have seen this year! I hope I am wrong,

by Bigdogg2002 on Oct 12, 2011 3:34 PM CDT reply actions

It won't end up being a pitcher's duel with Kotsay out there.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions

The latest radar

Makes it look like the storm will miss St. Louis like Kotsay will miss every ball hit near him tonight.

Brewers:
2011 NL Central Champs!
National League #2 Seed
Franchise record for wins

by molitorfan on Oct 12, 2011 4:08 PM CDT reply actions

I wish I could flag that but I can't... *sob

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Oct 12, 2011 4:09 PM CDT up reply actions

Help from above

Gary Vanden Berg moved the rain.

by statsllc on Oct 12, 2011 4:16 PM CDT reply actions

If the Brewers win tonight

I’ll buy a Kotsay Shirzee

REWIND YOURSELF!

by drezdn on Oct 12, 2011 4:21 PM CDT reply actions

I can't wait for that fanpost with a picture and reciept

I just hope it won’t then lead to yet another shirsey burning post.

"...just throw that pill over the plate and I'll make it happen." - Tony Plush

by thefreewheelin76 on Oct 12, 2011 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions

You may want to amend that to they win and kotsay has a positive WPA

They’ve won despite having Yuni and McGehee on the field at the same time. With Yuni and JHJ hot, Roenicke could throw anyone into CF and win.

This is, in fact, exactly what he’s done.

by ecocd on Oct 12, 2011 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions

i would like to complain to the league

(a) i thought they wanted similar conditions between ballparks (hence closing the roof in the nlds). it was not raining in milwaukee for games 1 and 2;
(b) i think the cardinals are playing with the weather to the brewers’ detriment.

by Capt Science on Oct 12, 2011 4:22 PM CDT reply actions

Thursday Friday

A lot of talk about tonight’s weather…but what’s the future games’ outlooks currently?

by Dexsting on Oct 12, 2011 4:30 PM CDT reply actions

Sounds like a final decision won't be made until 6:30 p.m. about whether to delay (or postpone) the start of the game.

Link

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Oct 12, 2011 4:56 PM CDT reply actions

by molitorfan on Oct 12, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

What's more...

Kotsay hits, or hits Yo gives up because Kotsay is in CF.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 12, 2011 5:38 PM CDT reply actions

And the next time I hear about RRR valuing defense I'm pulling up the lineup sheet from this game

And the conversation will be over.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 12, 2011 5:39 PM CDT reply actions

Silver lining

I agree that Gomez should start and bunt for a hit 4 times.

The silver lining is that the Brewers went 31-19 (.620) when Kotsay started a game.

by Bertwerst on Oct 12, 2011 5:41 PM CDT reply actions

Ron, is that you?

That’s dangerously close to “good things seem to happen when Kotsay starts”.

Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
2-time BCB Fantasy Baseball Champion

by GoGregGo on Oct 12, 2011 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I just finished reading the Mug thread

And I am FURIOUS

I got goons.

by Dikembe Meiztombo on Oct 12, 2011 6:03 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, that mpfische is quite the troll.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Oct 12, 2011 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions

We have already lost

Simply because Kotsay is starting and we are all experienced managers.

by Tiny Felder's Flip Shades on Oct 12, 2011 6:36 PM CDT reply actions

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NL Central Standings

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Cincinnati Red Reporter	25	20	.555	0	Lost 1
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