Friday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while talking about baseball for once.
First it was a best of seven, then it was a best of five and now we're down to a best of three for a spot in the World Series as the Brewers and Cardinals evened their series again last night. This is the first League Championship to play to a 2-2 tie in the last 14 opportunities. Dan Szymborski estimates the Brewers have a 53% chance of coming out on top this weekend. Before last night's game, J-Doug of Beyond the Box Score had them at 34.9%.
Randy Wolf was the story last night, keeping the Cardinals in check for seven innings as the Brewers picked up a 4-2 win to even the NLCS at two games a piece. Scott Miller of CBS has a look at the difference an operational jock strap might have made in Wolf's performance. Meanwhile at Roto Hardball, Jack Moore has a look at Wolf's tendency to perform better than his peripheral numbers would suggest, while Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar discusses the difference in his pitches last night compared to his NLDS meltdown.
Even if Wolf had done nothing else, the fact that he held the Cardinals scoreless in the first inning would have been notable. Cory Provus pointed out that the Brewers have been outscored 14-5 in the first inning this October. Last night was only the fourth time they've held a team scoreless in the frame, and the second in the NLCS.
It's hard not to feel good for Wolf. Here's what he told reporters after the game:
""I'll be honest with you," said the Brewers veteran lefty. "The day after the Diamondbacks start, I didn't eat or shower that day. I don't know if they call that depression but it was tough to swallow."
Hopefully this isn't his last start in 2011, but if it is at least Wolf got an outing he can be proud of.
He wasn't last night's top story, but John Axford recorded the final three outs for his third save of the postseason, and Trenni Kusnierek noted that he hit 99 on the gun at Busch Stadium while doing so. Brooks Baseball says he actually topped out at 99.5 in the inning.
This happens so often lately it's hardly news: Ryan Braun had two more hits last night and is now 16-for-34 this postseason. Jayson Stark notes that the record for hits in a single playoff season is 25, set by Darin Erstad in 2002 and Marquis Grissom in 1995. It's possible Braun will have as many as ten more games to get there. He's also set a postseason record by reaching base safely in the first inning of eight straight games.
Jerry Hairston Jr's multi-hit games are a little more unusual. Mark Bowman of MLB.com talked to him about his big game and clutch slide to score the Brewers' second run last night.
Other notes from the field:
- This was the Brewers' first road playoff win since Game 1 of the 1982 World Series. They had lost eight straight contests.
- Randy Wolf is only the sixth pitcher in franchise history to pitch seven innings or more in a playoff game.
- Wolf, Jerry Hairston Jr and Matt Holliday are leading FanGraphs' Star of the Game voting, while Wolf was named MLB.com's performer of the game.
- Plunk Everyone reports that the Brewers are only the second visiting team ever to win an NLCS Game 4 after being hit by a pitch.
- Cardinals starter Kyle Lohse was lifted from the game after 4.1 innings and 81 pitches. No Cardinal has thrown 90 pitches in a game in the series.
- If you went to bed early last night you might have missed Ron Roenicke's postgame comments and video highlights of the game's turning points.
- Last night's game was full of odd scenarios, including an Arthur Rhodes/George Kottaras matchup and a strikeout nullified by a timeout call from the third base umpire.
Here are last night's home run trot times, via Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus:
| Hitter | Trot time |
| Allen Craig | 20.56 seconds |
| Matt Holliday | 25 seconds |
The Brewers and Cardinals continue the series with Game 5 tonight, and Mike Bauman of MLB.com has the preview. Zack Greinke is scheduled to take the mound for the Brewers tonight, and Jeff Passan of Yahoo took a hatchet to him. Grant Brisbee of Baseball Nation says Greinke is the most underrated overrated pitcher ever. Todd Rosiak has quotes from Greinke's press conference yesterday on postseason umpiring, home/road splits and more.
Mark Kotsay started and batted second for the second straight day yesterday, playing right field in place of Corey Hart this time and going 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Jon Heyman says he's "not diggin" Ron Roenicke's sudden urge to start Kotsay on back to back days. Meanwhile, Kotsay hit a foul ball last night that hit Debbie Attanasio, Mark's wife. I haven't heard otherwise, so I'm assuming she's ok.
If you're still angry about the decision to play Kotsay on back-to-back days (or at all), Ron Roenicke Stole My Baseball has a shirt you may be interested in. If you don't have matching t-shirts, the occupation is going to look pretty amateur.
Even though he wasn't asked about it, Ron Roenicke continued to defend his decision to start Mark Kotsay in Game 3 yesterday. I guess it's good to know he's still thinking about it. Michael Hunt of the JS says Roenicke deserves credit for making the right moves last night.
If you're feeling like you've seen this Brewer postseason before, you're not entirely wrong. Over at On Milwaukee, J. Scott Loomer of Tweets from 1982 had a story on Tuesday looking at the similarities between this series and the 1982 Fall Classic, and has another today as the coincidences become even more eerie.
Of course, not everyone is enjoying it. Bradley Woodrum of FanGraphs says the Brewers and Cardinals are "perhaps the two least-qualified World Series contenders in a long... long... long time." Looks like someone's craving a little more East Coast in his postseason.
Looking ahead, this series is giving potential free agent suitors an opportunity to watch Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols in a head-to-head matchup. Jon Heyman has a look at how the two first basemen's postseason performance could impact their offseason plans. Bill Glauber of the JS thinks both first basemen should stay where they are.
Lance Berkman didn't start last night's game but singled in a pinch hit appearance in the ninth. Before the game he was named NL Comeback Player of the Year.
In the minors:
- Baseball America is reporting that Mike Rivera has elected to become a minor league free agent. Rivera appeared in one game as a Brewer this season and 61 more for AAA Nashville.
- Logan Schafer and Scooter Gennett were both in action in Arizona yesterday, while Caleb Gindl made another start in Venezuela. You can read about their performances and more in today's Winter League Update.
- The Brevard County Manatees are selling game-worn jerseys from the last two seasons.
The Brewers were winners yesterday both on the field and at the box office: Adam McCalvy talked to Brewer COO Rick Schlesinger about the financial benefit of being guaranteed at least one more home playoff game.
Unfortunately, the Brewers' continued success isn't beneficial for everyone: The Milwaukee Admirals' home opener is tonight and will go head-to-head with NLCS Game 5.
Around baseball:
Astros: Removed catcher J.R. Towles and pitchers Alberto Arias and Jose Valdez from the 40 man roster. Towles and Arias will be free agents.
Diamondbacks: Released pitcher Juan Gutierrez.
Mets: Hired former A's manager Bob Geren to be their new bench coach.
Padres: Are expected to decline 2012 club options for pitcher Chad Qualls and first baseman Brad Hawpe.
Elsewhere in baseball yesterday, the Tigers picked up a dramatic 7-5 win over Texas to send the ALCS back to Arlington for Game 6. You know that and much more if you've read this morning's edition of Around the MLB Playoffs.
Longtime readers of the site are probably aware of one of my stranger superstitions: When the Brewers need a big win late in the season, I bake something with pumpkin. Yesterday I made a pumpkin cranberry bread pudding and, while the dessert wasn't very good, the resulting win was great. Thanks to 80badger for passing me a couple more pumpkin recipes to try this weekend.
Elsewhere in postseason traditions: Here are today's playoff puns.
Today in former Brewers: Kevin Kaduk of Big League Stew spotted a Greg Vaughn throwback jersey at Busch Stadium last night. For all we know, it might have been Vaughn.
Now, if you'll excuse me, it's time to cash in.
Drink up.
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From habit to superstition
I didn’t eat meat for dinner on Monday or Wednesday, but I had a great pot roast waiting for me last night courtesy of my wife. I also ate meat (pizza) on Sunday.
So, the question is can I have leftovers from last night or do I need to have a different meat product this evening?
Different meal
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Yup
Gotta do something different, can’t take any chances.
Have you had brats yet?
Might have to break some out.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
That might be needed for game 7
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Try a Sonoran Brat...in honor of crushing the Diamondbacks.
![]()
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Sorry, description:
Pickle relish, bacon, pinto beans, brown mustard, fresh tomato, mayonnaise.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
No thanks...
I’ll take a more traditional brat. Generally, I like mine plain. Maybe with a little sauerkraut, maybe a little mustard.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
I will be grillin'
brats or sausage for Game 6. Looks like I need a trip to the store this afternoon for the mystery meat that will be Game 5!
Going to the store???
Was your meat man not ready?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm married
my meat man hasn’t been ready in awhile.
by Bertwerst on Oct 14, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
I don't mind the extra toppings
but the brat looks like it was left on the grill about 20 minutes too long.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Wolf clearly having an identity crisis in that picture
Greinke: "It’s not about the guacamole itself. I just don’t want to let them win."
2-time BCB Fantasy Baseball Champion
The shot of the dugout
was priceless while he went into Wolf Mode.
.

We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Oct 14, 2011 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions 9 recs
With Golden Hands.
FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.
by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 14, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions
You missed the opportunity to pull Molina on the child's face.
Still worth a rec.
by ecocd on Oct 14, 2011 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions 5 recs
What if scenario here
Let’s say the Brewers lose tonight, then throw Gallardo out on short rest Sunday and win. Who is the most likely starter for Game 7?
- Shaun Marcum
- Chris Narveson
- Marco Estrada
- Randy Wolf (on short rest)
I’m hoping for the win tonight so the Cardinals have to put Carpenter out for Game 6, and RR can use Marcum in a non must-win situation. That would leave Gallardo & Edwin Jackson for Game 7 (most likely).
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Why do I want to ask if it's a sombrero?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Also, if it looks like this?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
by -JP- on Oct 14, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Nacho nacho man...I want to be a nacho man!
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
If they win tonight it needs to be Narveson/Estrada on Sunday
Lose, and its obviously Gallardo on short rest.
Get a ife broseph
I don't understand why it's obviously Gallardo on short rest.
If I need to win 2 games, I’d rather have Narveson and Gallardo on regular rest than Narveson and Gallardo on short rest.
Because they aren't guaranteed 2 games
If down 3-2, you have to play G6 as if its your last game of the season.
Get a ife broseph
I'm with placidity
I understand that Game 6 would be a must-win of course, but if you need two wins and Gallardo can only start one, why wouldn’t you want to have him on full rest for his start?
But you need to win two games
Not just one. You need two different starters for those games, so why would it make sense to have Yo at anything less than 100%? He’s our best pitcher on full rest, he probably isn’t our best pitcher if he’s on short rest.
But you need to win two games
to even play in the World Series.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
The goal of Game 6 is to get to Game 7
Absolutely.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Oct 14, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Right.
I guess I don’t understand the thinking behind leaving your best pitcher on the bench with your season on the line.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I guess agree to disagree.
But I’m right. :-)
Math says let Gallardo rest (with one assumption)
Let the only desirable outcome be wins in game 6 and game 7. Also, assume the odds of winning when Narveson starts is constant.
Now, call the probably of winning when Narv starts X, when Gallardo starts on short rest Y, and Gallardo on normal rest Z.
Regards of who starts, game 6 and 7 can play out three ways. Either win-win, win-lose or lose-(game doesn’t happen). As stated before only win-win is desirable.
Option1: start Gallardo on short rest for game 6, then narveson:
P(W-W) = y * x
Option 2: start Narv, then Gallardo on normal rest:
P(W-W) = x * z
Now, the question is which is greater, yx or xz. Since x is an integer, we can simply compare y to z. So really it boils down to which gives a better chance of a win, all else equal—Gallardo on normal rest or Gallardo on short rest.
Summary: If winning game 6, only to lose game 7, is as bad as losing game 6, then go big by being patient.
by weisomatic. on Oct 14, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
X isn't an integer, it's a real number between 0 and 1.
But since we are assuming x > 0, we can still just compare y to z.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Yeah, not a math guy either
But since no one knows what x, y or z really equal, not sure what to make of it.
Do we know that Yo is worse on short rest than regular rest?
Get a ife broseph
No
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions
The one plus if Gallardo does go on short rest
is that he threw (only) 95 last game.
by Archibaldcrane on Oct 14, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Better question
is Yo on short rest better or worse than Narveson who hasn’t started a game since 9/25?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Click actions again and then click unflag
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
And I believe the assumption should be stated...
z > y > x.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
not quiet
The whole point is that Narveson’s game (although let’s be honest, Marcum will be starting it) is a constant. One of them will have to win a game, be it game 6 or game 7. So the take away is since Gallardo is better on normal rest, the brewers should let him have it.
OK so
how does this change depending on who the Cardinals are throwing?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
The announced Jackson - Carp
Obviously just announced and could change, but if they had doubts like the Brewers do, not sure they would announce it.
Get a ife broseph
Given that
and the fact that the Brewers are at home, I’d prefer to go Narve/Gallardo.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't think they'd bring Carp back on short rest.
Not after what happened in Philly.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Then that would really seal Gallardo in 7, no?
Otherwise it’s Narveson/Marcum vs. Carp and, uh, yeah.
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions
That's what I'm saying
Except if the series is 3-2 Milwaukee going back. I mean I’d rather finish it in Game 6 in that case. Although I still feel good about the Narve/Jackson matchup.
Although that’s not going to happen. Rubbie’s boy RRR will not skip Marcum.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Eh its not a huge gap
But Carpenter is better. I think the gap is wider between Narveson and Gallardo. And I don’t think Marcum should be pitching anymore.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree, agree and agree
I’m just saying it’s not a situation where you go “Well if the Cards throw Jackson, its fine if the Brewers go with their significantly worse pitcher”
Get a ife broseph
Fair enough
I’m not going to get bent out of shape too much either way. Not the way I’ll get bent out of shape if Kotsay is starting again tonight.
In fact if Kotsay is starting again tonight, I might have a stroke.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Kotsay might, too.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Oct 14, 2011 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
well played, sir
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions
But there is one other caveat to this.
A game 7 means additional revenue, compared to losing on game 6. So the payoffs to “Win-Lose” and “Lose – No game” are different.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
true
so you have to balance the difference between rested and not-rested gallardo, and the payoff.
But increasing your odds of winning the whole series
means more revenue in the World series as well, so you have to balance that too.
by Archibaldcrane on Oct 14, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm afraid we need to use...
math
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
You cannot assume that the probablility of Narveson winning is equal from game 6 to game 7.
There are 1 million what ifs.
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 14, 2011 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
None of which you can predict with certainty
Therefore they are irrelevant to the choice. If the net difference is Gallardo on a short start or a well-rested Gallardo, you give him the rest. Common sense.
Yeah me either
I can live with Narveson (or whoever) getting shelled and costing us the season if they are the best option available. I don’t think I can live with that if they aren’t the best option available.
It’s pretty clear the Brewers feel the same way – there’s a reason they haven’t officially announced a Game 6 starter yet.
Get a ife broseph
THE EGG CAME FIRST!
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Oct 14, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
PITT THE ELDER!!!
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
That's about how this conversation sounds right now.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Dave Cameron had a great article at Fangraphs
about this, re: the Tigers, a few day ago.
I agree with the guy you’re disagreeing with. Pitching Gallardo on short rest being down 2-3 ultimately hurts your chances.
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
In terms of the article/argument
I don’t think it is.
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions
It totally is
Cameron puts DET’s odds at winning all 4 games at 6%.
What’s there odds of winning 3 games if they win and make it 3-1? Just guessing, but can we say 15%?
If Brewers are down 3-2. Winning Game 6 would put their odds of winning the series at about 45% to win, even with Narveson on the hill in G7.
Basically, the series odds shift MUCH more dramatically by winning tying it 3-3 than winning to make it 3-1.
Get a ife broseph
See mmueller's arbitrary numbers below.
The numbers obviously aren’t right, but the theory behind it is.
If Gallardo in 6 on short rest gives us 60% to win instead of 70% in game 7, and Narveson gives us 50% either way, why wouldn’t we want to take the highest odds to win the series?
But he's still better than Narveson
If you are in a true must-win game, you have to go with your best option – Gallardo is your best option.
If you want to argue that Narveson would be better than Yo on short rest, fine, I don’t really think that’s the case.
Get a ife broseph
I don't think that's the case either
But it’s not one must-win game. It’s two. So you want both pitchers to be at 100%.
What good does a fully-rested Yovani do us
if our season ends on Sunday?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
What good does pitching Yo at less than his best do
if we’re running the person out there on Monday who would have pitched Sunday anyways.
The only two things I can think to back your opinion are a) getting to game 7 gets extra revenue from tickets and such, and b) if you think Wolf on short rest is our best option for the non-Yo game.
I guess we have different goals.
Yours is to win the series, which is fine. Mine is to keep playing baseball for as long as we can.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I truly don't get this
Your goal isn’t to win the series?
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I mean, yeah:
but, in my mind, if we’re down 3-2, Game 6 is a one-game series.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
It's two must-win games.
You must plan for them both with equal importance.
by nullacct on Oct 14, 2011 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I understand some people feel this way.
I disagree.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
by Rubie Q on Oct 14, 2011 2:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I do too
Yes, if the Brewers are down 2-3 after tonight, they would need to win the next two to advance to the WS, but you have to play each game like it’s the last.
With that mentality, you start your best pitcher on Game 6. If you win, you figure things out for Game 7. You don’t plan Game 6 and 7 at the same time.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 14, 2011 3:27 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
My goal also is to keep playing for as long as we can.
The best way to do that is win the series.
This is all moot after Greinke spins a gem tonight.
Then we pitch Narveson in game 6 to save Gallardo for game 1 of the World Series. Can we all agree on this?
What good does it to to pitch Yo
in Game 6 instead of 7 if we still would need to pitch Narveson in Game 7 instead of 6? Totally hypothetical numbers off the top of my head that I know aren’t accurate, but this is just an example… If Gallardo in 6 on short rest gives us 60% to win instead of 70% in game 7, and Narveson gives us 50% either way, why wouldn’t we want to take the highest odds to win the series?
Agreed (obviously).
As does Dave Cameron.
Note: More arbitrary adjustments at the linked article.
But if you want to argue that it allows you to use Gallardo on full rest sooner in the World Series...
I sense a problem.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Yo's regular rest if he pitched game 6
would come on an off day. So you could either pitch him on short rest back to back to get him into game 2, or short rest then long rest in game 3.
Ahh nice again
Just skimmed through the numbers, didn’t read. I was assuming he used some kind of history to back up his numbers. Bad assumption.
I agree with Placidity
It would not surprise me if the Brewers went with Gallardo on short rest becasue that feels like the right thing to do. But logically both are “must-wins” and it makes more sense to throw the kitchen sink (Narveson/Marcum and the bully) at game 6 and then Gallardo and what is left for game 7.
The only caveat is if you plan to follow Gallardo on short rest with Wolf on short rest.
by grant76 on Oct 14, 2011 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
While both games are "must-wins"
they are mutually exclusive.
In other words, Game 6 is a must-win. Game 7 is a must-win only if they win Game 6. You plan each game independently and go with the pitcher who gives you the best chance of winning each time.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 14, 2011 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Not technically true
Wikipedia (which cannot tell a lie) says that two events are mutually exclusive “if they cannot occur at the same time.”
I think you meant that that the games are independent, a term you also used (meaning that the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other). But the games are not independent. If the brewers use Gallardo in game 6, that has a significant affect on the pitcher who would give us the best chance to win game 7.
You have to look at what gives the brewers a chance to win twice in a row. It should not be over-thought. Narveson/Marcum then rested Gallardo wins more often then not-rested Gallardo then Narvcum (Marceson?)
You don’t get points for winning game 6, only to lose game 7 (As a fan I would not get happiness from addition earnings).
by weisomatic. on Oct 14, 2011 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I hate the fact there has been so many comments on what
should/will happen if the Brewers are 3-2 down going into game 6 and very few about what should/will happen if they the Brewers are leading 3-2.
That's because I don't think there's any debate on what happens if the Brewers win tonight
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Marcum starts game 6.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Yes, I meant "independent" instead of "mutually exclusive"
Also, if you read my post closely, you’ll notice that I didn’t mention any names at all. The reason is that some people might think that Narveson (not stretched out) is a better option than Gallardo (short-rest).
Why would you lessen your chances of winning Game 6 to increase your chances of winning for Game 7? If you lose Game 6, there is no Game 7.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Because if you lose game 7
there is no World Series for the Brewers.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
And I, for one, don't care whether they lose the NLCS in 6 or 7
I want them to win.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If they lose tonight
then losing Game 6 or 7 leads to the same result.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
So shouldn't we maximize probability of making the World Series,
not the probability of winning game 6 independent of game 7?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If they're on the brink of elimination...
winning Game 6 is the only goal they should have. After they win, they can figure out what to do for Game 7.
BTW – RR just stated that there’s no chance that Gallardo will be starting on 3-days rest. He says that his previous post-season starts were “too much effort”.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
And that's what the whole debate is about.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
But if losing game 6 and losing game 7 are the same...
then I’m not sure how you justify your position.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The outcome is the same
but you don’t get to Game 7 without first winning Game 6.
I don’t think we’re really getting anywhere with this discussion… we’re going to just have to agree to disagree.
If the Brewers lose tonight, then I think Game 6 is more important than Game 7… thus my position.
If you feel both games are equal, then I can see where you’re coming from.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Option C:
1) Sabotage roof
2) Hope for rain
by MillerParkSouth on Oct 14, 2011 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions
I get the point
But I am going to put the lineup in that gives me the best probability to win that game. Anything can happen tomorrow, I need to play for today (Maybe Pujols forgets his pillow and has to sleep on a towel)
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 14, 2011 1:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Play as if its your last game of the season? You mean put the best offense you can on the field?
#Kotsay’d
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes and no
If you’re down 3-2, you have to win two games, not one, no matter what. So starting Gallardo on short rest gives you no tactical advantage, since you have to pitch him anyway if you’re going to win the series.
by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 14, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Huh?
Doesn’t it give you the tactical advantage of starting your best pitcher in the game that could end your season?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
If you have to win 2 games
you might as well put both pitchers in the positions where they have the best chance to succeed. This isn’t a case of “game 4 so he can pitch game 7 also if necessary” – you aren’t going to get a another start out of Gallardo whether you pitch him on short rest or not.
by Archibaldcrane on Oct 14, 2011 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Right, I get that.
I just think Gallardo on short rest is a much, much better option than Narveson on 26 days’ rest.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Well, I don't think there will be much of a difference between Narveson
on 26 or 27 days rest – so might as well get Gallardo on full. Narveson (or Marcum) is going to get pitched if we’re going to win this.
Although the argument is more interesting if we say “Ok, Gallardo for 6, Greinke for 7”.
This hasn’t been discussed at all has it?
by Archibaldcrane on Oct 14, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Whoops
forgot we’re at game 5 tonight.
Nevermind.
by Archibaldcrane on Oct 14, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
But that's not the choice
The choice is Narveson/Marcum & Short-Rest Gallardo vs. Narveson/Marcum Regular-Rest Gallardo.
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Lets just win tonight
And let RRR just pull his lineup out of a hat for Sunday as usual.
by Titletown8 on Oct 14, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I have a theory .....
that Greinke’s struggles in the postseason have been due to his anxiety disorder and that he is feeling more comfortable with this start. Expect a gem!!!
"I gotta feeling that tonight’s gonna be a good night
That tonight’s gonna be a good night
That tonight’s gonna be a good, good night
A feeling, woohoo, that tonight’s gonna be a good night
That tonight’s gonna be a good night
That tonight’s gonna be a good, good night
Tonight’s the night, let’s live it up
I got my money, let’s spend it up
Go out and smash it like oh my God
Jump off that sofa, let’s get, get off!!!"
by Titletown8 on Oct 14, 2011 12:58 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm debating where my nervousness level should be.
Not at NLDS Game 5 level, probably not as high as last night’s game, but higher than the first three of the series and the first four of the NLDS.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
My nervousness level is well above NLDS Game 5 right now and I went to the game...
I think its due to the fact that a Win tonight and all we gotta do is take one game at Miller Park, and we’ll be watching the Brew Crew in the World Series!
You know how sometimes
you hear a song and it is absolutely fantastic but you worry that the more you hear it the more you’ll get tired of it? And then you hear it absolutely everywhere but sometimes it just sounds better and better and you realise that, although it seems like a cliche, you’re listening to a modern classic? “I’ve Got A Feeling” by The Black Eyed Peas is kinda like that, only just the complete opposite…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
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by MrLeam on Oct 14, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
I literally laughed out loud
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
The song that's been playing over and over on my Android phone is "This is How a Heart Breaks"
I’m hoping that’s not foreshadowing in some way…
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Also, NoahJ, I'm a little unhappy right now
Watching Arrested Development has partially ruined “The Final Countdown” for me.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
As in the well-known remark by commentators
“The unnecessary punch-up totally ruined that game of soccer”…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
"And now: a magician named Gob"
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Then again-
Its just a theory. Just like,
-“The World is flat”
-“The Sun revolves around the Earth”
-“Jeff Passan has hidden talent”
OH SHIT, WE ARE DOOMED!!
In 29 years
When someone is doing the technological equivalent of Tweets from 2011 I hope they don’t remind me of that “in the stars tonight” song that plays every commercial break.
Brewers:
2011 NL Central Champs!
National League #2 Seed
Franchise record for wins
Is that a strange hybrid of "Written in the Stars" and "In The Air Tonight?"
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I like this
I’m going to cue up some Phil Collins during tonight’s game.
Susudio
or is it Scutaro?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Oct 14, 2011 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh jeez
I’ve just finished slagging off The Black Eyed Peas and someone goes and mentions Phil Collins…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
You guys have the best phrases over there.
by Zack Greinke's Paxil on Oct 14, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Unfortunately
none of them were ever used by Phil Collins…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Wanker that he is...
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Casey McGehee themed cupcakes

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 1:18 PM CDT reply actions 4 recs
I think the one in the middle of the bottom row best depicts McGehee this season.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 14, 2011 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Made with extra derp.
That dog just won't hunt.
by Bush League All Star on Oct 14, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like that we had a nullified strikeout last night.
FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.
by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 14, 2011 1:23 PM CDT reply actions
I like that we had more runs than the Cardinals last night.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
by Yar Nivek on Oct 14, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs
Me, two. And may the same thing happen tonight...
along with another nullification of a strikeout for a St. Louis pitcher!
FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.
by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 14, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
When is the Cardinals bullpen going to implode?
They’ve averaged using five pitchers a game in the postseason, and have only had two games where they’ve used 3 or less total pitchers.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Was last night just the start?
Yes, they allowed a run or two (depends on if you count the 3rd run for Lohse or the bullpen), but wasn’t much of an implosion.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Meh
I think they lost last night because they forgot to use Lance Lynn. I was rooting for him to become the first pitcher ever to work in seven games in a single series.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
this is what I'm waiting for...
in 4 LCS games the STL bullpen is up to almost 18 innings pitched…s
by youngmanblues on Oct 14, 2011 3:02 PM CDT up reply actions
TLR mindgame?
I wonder if TLR is only having starters throw 80 so they can throw more in later games (except that makes no sense with Lohse) or to limit how many times they face the same batters. Or he’s just crazy.
REWIND YOURSELF!
Admirals
It’s a shame the game isn’t on Saturday. Admirals games are really fun, and the ones vs. Chicago are like a Cubs/Brewers games with actual punching between the players.
REWIND YOURSELF!
Hey when is the regular season awards like MVP announced?
I know they have already been voted on just wondering when Mr Braun will get his MVP award :)
"It's a joke. It's all a joke.
So, I've been reading @preschoolgems throughout my work day and...
Tonight it’s time for beasting
"Obi Braun Kenobi you're our only hope!"
Morgan's double last night
Was he really that demonstrative on it? (Normally level-headed) Cubs fan at work was telling me he hates Morgan because he was celebrating that hit like he won the WS. I told him the Cubs should consider getting a player that brings that much energy and maybe they’ll win something…someday.
And clearly he doesn’t remember how he celebrated the game-winning hit in game 5 of the NLDS. This obviously was not how he “would celebrate winning the WS”. Was just a really dumb comment, I thought.
Prince: "Brewers will win the World Series and I'll sign a 10-year deal in Milwaukee"
Braun: "Well, I guess there's just one thing to do then..."
If he thinks that is how Morgan would celebrate winning the WS
he doesn’t really have a clue about Nyjer…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
by MrLeam on Oct 14, 2011 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
You should tell him that no Cubs player has celebrated like he just won the world series in 103 years
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
The Kotsay experiment is over, everyone!
REWIND YOURSELF!
by drezdn on Oct 14, 2011 2:58 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Almonte is called up and getting the start?
by youngmanblues on Oct 14, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Hart back in the lineup
His case of the poops… solved!
REWIND YOURSELF!
by drezdn on Oct 14, 2011 3:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He contracted dyssentary?
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Yep
Hart
Hairston
Braun
Fielder
Weeks
Mr. Golden Hands
Gomey
Lucroy
Greinke
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Cardinals lineup
Furcal
Jay
Pujols
Berkman
Holliday
Freese
Molina
Punto
Garcia
Apparently after the HR last night, TLR feels Holliday can protect Pujols again.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Yeah, you're right
For some reason I misread that lineup and thought he was behind Pujols (batting 4th).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I think this is the best line-up that the Cards can play
Hopefully TLR decides to play Theriot again in game 6
i bet Bradley woodrum is a guy that supports the bcs system too
by onbeer8 on Oct 14, 2011 3:07 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Dumb article
Even if you consider the NL Central the weakest division, the Brewers and Cardinals still had to beat the best of the NL West and NL East (which also happens to have been the best team in the NL) to make it this far.
Also, does author realize that if the Brewers and Cardinals didn’t play the Astros this year, one of them would still have won the division and made the playoffs?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Oct 14, 2011 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm embarrassed for FanGraphs.
What a horribly thought out article.
by Zorakathura on Oct 14, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
OK new question
Based on a couple tweets – it appears that RR is sticking with Marcum if the Brewers win tonight.
If they’re behind 3-2, would you rather go Marcum-Yo, or Yo-Marcum?
Get a ife broseph
Are we really just pretending the previous 100 comments didn't happen?
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh come on...
You don’t think short-rested Yo is the way to go… must-win game and all? :)
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I've been waiting for this fight since I read Dave Cameron's article
It did not disappoint!
by The Left Button on Oct 14, 2011 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Per TH tweet...
manager Ron Roenicke emphasizes that RHP Shaun Marcum will start Game 6 of NLCS.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Utterly unbelievable
Roenicke is a moron. He should not be in charge of a baseball team. He certainly shouldn’t be in charge of my favorite baseball team. Roenicke cost the team game 2 when Marcum started, Game 3 when Kotsay started and no one should even bother showing up to the stadium for Game 6. Can the Brewers win 4 of 5 on their own? We’ll find out!
by ecocd on Oct 14, 2011 5:06 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree with you on the Kotsay starts
But why would you of not started Marcum in game 2? I know he did not pitch well but Naverson had not started in almost 3 weeks by then and probably unable to pitch more than 4 innings so who else should of started?
Both Kranitz and RR
seem to think that Marcum’s problems are addressable (in other words not related to fatigue). I guess we’ll find out on Sunday if they’re right about that.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Exactly
We’ll find out.
He’s been claiming that Marcum is fine and simply had some tough luck. Fine, then we should expect him to be good in Game 6.
If he’s not good, then its pretty clear both RRR and Kranitz don’t know how to evaluate pitchers, not sure what other conclusion to jump to. That’d be a pretty scary thought if you’re Mark A or Melvin – I’d have a hard time keeping them in their positions if that was the case.
Get a ife broseph
I'm with Jordan M's post a couple days ago on this
I don’t really trust Marcum right now, but I don’t trust Narveson, either, especially 19 days removed from his last start. Start Marcum and give him a really quick, elimination-game hook.
by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 14, 2011 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Brewers record when leading after 5 innings
So I noticed that the Brewers are like 72-11 when leading after 5 innings but I’m wondering if anybody knows an easy way to find out what it has been since adding K-Rod and Saito?
by grant76 on Oct 14, 2011 3:32 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Another piece here worshiping the Cardinals
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Sometimes I wish this writers would just cut the crap.
Why don’t they just show us how they really think when they get down on their knees and…
[The remainder of this post has been censored by the author.]
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Per TH tweet
This is the Game 6 situation for NLCS: If the ALCS ends Saturday, Game 6 of NLCS will move from 3 p.m. to 7 p.m. on Sunday.
Come on Rangers!
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Go Tigers!
I’ve got a really early morning flight so it needs to be 3pm…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
I am going too, and would rather see a 3PM
I hate Yuni.
by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 14, 2011 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Heh
You don’t have your son’s birthday party at 11:30am on Sunday though. :)
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You might think that
But you’re not the one having to spend the whole of Monday in Cardiff. If you only had the slightest inkling of the horrors that await anyone stupid enough to venture into the principality of Wales you’d have more sympathy for me…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
If Saturday morning goes well for them in the Rugby
There will be alot of sheepish, hungover looking welshmen and women come Monday morning but I think you may find alot people still in a party mood.
I know even less about Rugby Union than I do about baseball
But I think it’ll be a France – New Zealand final. That’ll finally settle the Rainbow Warrior stuff once and for all…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Not Wales! They don't even have a real language!
here we go again?
by Zack Greinke's Paxil on Oct 14, 2011 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions
The Welsh national anthem
Has lines about keeping their language alive.
It is also one of the highlights of any Welsh international rugby game
In terms of national anthems
I think they would both be in the top 5 of national anthems
Along with the French and South African ones
Good shouts
The weird one I picked up last week (as you might have as well for some strange reason) was that Liechtenstein’s national anthem uses the tune of God Save the Queen…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Wow I did not know that
If you are going to copy a tune you might aswell use something better than that dirge.
Exactly
I think the one thing “Flower of Scotland” has going for it is that it’s not “Scotland the Brave” but either is definitely miles better than “God Save the Queen” as a tune…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Balls
My plan of getting a couple of hours sleep before waking up for the start are now ruined by getting stuck checking BCB for the last hour or so (damn you and your addictive site, Lobner!). Might as well stay up until first pitch now…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
Your lucky you are not working tomorrow
But listening or watching the game in full after the event, even without know the score, is not the same. Although you do get to fast forward through each change of inning or pitcher ( which with TLR managing save quite a bit of time)
Damn
I think I’ve got work all next weekend which could be a complete pain. Normally I’ll end up watching the Friday game on Saturday morning too, plus if its an away game you can always change the commentary to the away feed…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
So...there was a cardinal (bird) sitting in a tree in my backyard.
I had this weird urge to shoot it with a BB gun.
I take it you got rid of the urge to shoot it with a BB gun
By shooting it with a shotgun?
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool
By the way
I absolutely love the way you had to clarify it by saying “cardinal (bird)” just in case any of us was stupid enough to think that Albert Pujols was preparing for the game today by squatting down in an oak tree in your garden…
Less than proud owner of Marmol Says Knock McLouth (BCB League III)
The NBA stole my wife
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!" ThroughBeingCool










































