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2012 Payroll Early Estimate

Its that time again, folks. Thus far here's what we know:

  • The Brewers are presumably going to need go with Mat Gamel a starting at 1B.
  • The Brewers are presumably going to need a upgraded starting SS with Alex Gonzalez.
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Takashi Saito, LaTroy Hawkins are all free agents, opening up three two holes in the bullpen, one of which was filled by Jose Veras, the other presumably will be filled by Zach Braddock.
  • Francisco Rodriguez accepted the Brewers arbitration offer. I think Doug will try to keep him on the team for the entire year.

As a point of reference, my arb estimates will be in bold, MLBTR's will be italicized. The payroll total with MLBTR's estimates will also be italicized at the bottom. EDIT 1/8/12: I'll put the running total as accurate figures come out to the far left at the bottom of the article. Immediately to the right will be my original estimate, and to the far right the MLBTR estimate total.

So, without further ado, here's how things currently sit:

C - Jonathan Lucroy - $480k
C - George Kottaras - $700k ($750k / $800k)
1B - Mat Gamel - $480k
2B - Rickie Weeks - $11.0M
SS - Alex Gonzalez - $4.25M
3B - Aramis Ramirez - $6M
IF - Taylor Green - $480k
IF -
LF - Ryan Braun - $7M
CF - Nyjer Morgan - $2.35M ($2M / $1.9M)
RF - Corey Hart - $9.33M
OF - Carlos Gomez - $1.9625M ($2M / $1.8M)
OF - Norichika Aoki -

SP - Zack Greinke - $13.5M
SP - Yovani Gallardo - $5.75M
SP - Shaun Marcum - $6M (arb 3) $6.8M (Filing: $6.75/$8)
SP - Randy Wolf - $9.5M
SP - Chris Narveson - $480k

LR - Manny Parra - $1.2M ($1.5M / $1.2M)

RP - John Axford - $480k

RP - Kameron Loe - $2.175M ($1.75M/$2.8M)

RP - Marco Estrada - $480k
RP - Jose Veras - $2.5M (arb1)
RP - Zach Braddock - $480k
RP - Francisco Rodriguez - $8M ($11M was estimate)

2012 commitments to others:

Francisco Rodriguez option: $500k (negotiated deal to remove vesting clause, Mets paying initial $3.5M)

Yuniesky Betancourt buyout: $2M

Total 2012 Payroll commitments:

$94.5775 $97.19 $98.49

As always, click RIGHT HERE to get to the Google Docs spreadsheet I keep running. More assumptions and discussion after the jump!

Star-divide

Ok, so here are the assumptions:

  • I personally think that Gamel will be on the team next year, in some capacity, due to Melvin's comments among other things. At the very least, he can be a PH and provide relief at 3B, 1B and possibly corner OF. play 1B next year, with Green backing him up as well as providing relief to Ramirez.
  • I think Josh Wilson will be was cut.
  • I do not think Melvin will did the right thing and didn't pick up Betancourt's option.
  • I think that, today, McGehee has an inside line on starting at 3B. That may change with Green in the mix. Welcome to Milwaukee, Aramis Ramirez.
  • I don't think that Jerry Hairston Jr. will didn't want to come back as a super-sub for what the Brewers were offering--he will want a larger role. I don't know if that will be with the Brewers or not.
  • I did not include Mike McClendon in the bullpen because I'm not sure if the K-Rod trade is finalized, and whether he would be in it. (EDIT: Thanks Cheeseandcorn for knowing what's up with the K-Rod trade.) but he might make it. Although I tend to think that Melvin will try to sign at least 1 reliever in free agency, and then fill in around that. With Veras in the fold, and K-Rod accepting arbitration, I don't think McClendon will be on the opening day roster.
  • I did not include Zach Braddock because who knows? It looks like Zach is going to be on the opening day roster.
  • I did not include Brandon Kintzler because I don't know the recovery time on his surgery, and how he will pitch coming back.
  • I did not include Eulogio de la Cruz because...eh...is he really going to be one of the top options to fill out a bullpen?

So, some points of reference here:

  • If the Brewers fill every open position on the 25-man roster internally, at a pay rate of $414k, the total payroll would be roughly $83.142M. For reference, opening day 2011 payroll was $83.59M.
  • In 2010, Brewers opening day payroll was $90.408M, which is the highest the franchise has ever seen.
  • After a little digging, I see that BP has something of a recap from 2009, that notes the team spent $90.3M at year-end in 2008, up from $80.94M to begin the year. I cannot see the payroll exceeding $95M at end-of-season under any circumstances.

Discuss!

Comment 97 comments  |  12 recs  | 

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Comments

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Why not Frankie

I thought that Eulogio pitched very well at the end of the season, and I think he could be a good middle-relief option for next season.

by Brewer 1 Fan on Oct 21, 2011 4:17 PM CDT reply actions  

Believe he's got minor league options, which hurts his chances of making the opening day roster

Teams like to start those guys in the minors and bring them up when someone gets hurt or is ineffective.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions  

Plus

There’s really only one spot available in the bullpen that he would likely be competing for against Parra, Kintzler (if healthy) and McClendon.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Dec 14, 2011 11:58 AM CST up reply actions  

I thought so, but I got lazy and didn't want to look it up

also, I’m not sure he’ll be in the bullpen in any case.

Thanks!

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions  

Don't forget that the Royals are paying for Yuni's option

as part of the trade, so that frees up another $2 mil

"This could really be Wisconsin's year for sports. We got the Packers' Super Bowl, Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, and maybe a Brewers World Series," -my father
"What about the Bucks?" -me
"...." -my father

by toki47 on Oct 21, 2011 5:02 PM CDT reply actions  

Correct

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2011 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

My bad

just assumed that the $2 mil would fill in for the $2 mil we’ll owe him in 2012, not half of his salary in 2011

"This could really be Wisconsin's year for sports. We got the Packers' Super Bowl, Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, and maybe a Brewers World Series," -my father
"What about the Bucks?" -me
"...." -my father

by toki47 on Oct 22, 2011 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions  

Think of it like a yearly balance sheet for a company

You can’t float money you got last year into this year. Its accounted for the year its received.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 22, 2011 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Sure you can

It’s called deferred revenue.

Depends on your method of accounting, you’d be right if you’re doing Cash method, but not if doing accrual.

I can elaborate more if you want, but I don’t want to put people to sleep involuntarily by reading my explanation.

"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up." ~Bob Uecker

by ASerd87 on Oct 24, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

I stand corrected on my accounting analogy

But, everything I understand about MLB payrolls, that money is included on the payroll the year it is received. Also see Cot’s for perspective on this.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 24, 2011 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I understand

I doubt they would leave the $2M sitting in a top shelf cookie jar. That money would be used to pay current obligations. Just wanted to be a stickler for the accounting speak.

Thanks for the post, very interesting and looks very well thought out.

"The way to catch a knuckleball is to wait until it stops rolling and then pick it up." ~Bob Uecker

by ASerd87 on Oct 27, 2011 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Since we're operating with so little wiggle room

It’s hard to resist not freeing up $2M by getting rid of McGehee and slotting in Taylor Green ($414k).

And equally hard not to want to free up $1M more by jettisoning Parra and going with a MLB minimum minor-leaguer instead.

With that money, Doug could potentially sign Barmes for SS ($4.5M), Hairston for super-sub/3B platoon ($2M?), an 8th-inning reliever ($2.5M?) and a situational lefty to pair with Loe.

by MooseHaas on Oct 21, 2011 5:42 PM CDT reply actions  

While I'm on the subject of budget-slashing

If Doug were to find someone to take Randy Wolf and his $9.5 mil, what should the Brewers do with that $$ — assuming that Prince is STILL going elsewhere due to want of a franchise-crippling, 8-year deal, and that Reyes has no real interest in playing in Milwaukee?

by MooseHaas on Oct 21, 2011 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think anyone will take Wolf for the full $9.5 million

So Doug would be kicking in a fair amount of cash to save payroll. Even with $9.5 million more the Brewers couldn’t afford Reyes even if he believed Milwaukee was his own personal holy land.

by ecocd on Oct 24, 2011 2:28 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Holy land?

He worships Counsell?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 2:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

I disagree. 9.5 is fair value for him. The free agent pitching market is very weak, and big spenders need pitching (Yankees, Red Sox)

I think a mid-season trade is much more likely, but it probably won’t be done for payroll concerns.

Marcum could be traded as well, and for a bigger return.

by tcyoung on Oct 25, 2011 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

^ This

I’d be shocked if someone didn’t take Wolf and his if we put him on the block.
He was pretty damn good this year and 9.5 Mil isn’t unreasonable at all.

I have no concept.

by menchkins on Nov 6, 2011 1:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd be all for that

I try to lay this out the way I think the front office will probably handle things, though. I feel like dropping McGehee would probably be a big PR no-no, and they’ll probably want to not give up on Parra yet (he pitched quite well out of the ’pen in 2010).

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 21, 2011 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Understood, and I think that's reasonable

But I wonder how poorly a Casey Cut would really be received. He’s a sympathetic figure due to his son, and a likable figure due to his reserved, hardworking approach (Wisconsin-like, even tho he’s from Cali). Even average Brewers fans soured on him pretty hard during his slump, though, and were deeply frustrated with his lack of ability to change his hitting approach. And I think the concept of cost-cutting/smart-spending resonates pretty well with Wisconsinites. As long as it’s made clear that the Brewers NEED to do that to have $$ to spend to remain competitive — as opposed to just cutting Casey because they’re ruthless dicks — there won’t be riots. I’d be surprised if some other MLB team wouldn’t take a flier on him, with his 100-RBI rep from 2010. Doug just can’t afford to have a dude with a wOBA that bad take up even a measly 2.8 percent of his payroll.

by MooseHaas on Oct 21, 2011 6:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I'm just not sure

I think there’s probably a huge contingent of people who would be really upset about it. But maybe not.

I always like to point out, too, that there might be some machinations that aren’t all that obvious that go on as well. For example, the Yankees can just cut anyone they want, any time. Financially, they can just go out and buy a better player (while eating the other player’s salary)and the fans will still love them even if they cut Jetes—if they sign Reyes and make it to the World Series, the fans will rejoice. It seems to me like winning probably cures all. Of course the Yankees won’t do that, but in a small market with much tighter budget constraints, I think the fan base tends to get more attached to players. It has also been noted previously that, because of Milwaukee’s smaller market, incentives need to be given to players to come here, whether that be more pay or a high buyout on an option year, who knows. But I think that includes free agent players’ perceptions of how the organisation treats its players. A guy like McGehee who was really a rock for the team for the last couple of years and then tanked in one of the best years in franchise history gets cut? I think most players will look at that as a little cold-blooded.

Maybe not though. I could be looking too far into it.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 22, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure I understand the PR hit for letting McGehee go

Both in that I don’t think there will be one, and if there were, I don’t think the Org would care that much.

Most Brewer fans I know complained about McGehee all year and RRR was universally applauded for benching McGehee in the playoffs.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

See my above post

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 24, 2011 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

Gotcha

I don’t think anyone would really look at that is cold blooded. The most cold blooded thing DM ever did was the Hardy thing, and that outrage lasted about a day. Bill Hall let go midseason, no attempt to resign Sheets, Jenkins replaced and gone to Philly, etc.

There would certainly be people sad to see McGehee go, but I’ve never gotten the sense that Brewer fans have ever valued the player over the team. CC, and soon to be Prince show that the fans understand the business of baseball.

Further, with the examples above, I can’t really think of a move that Melvin made with PR in mind – possibly Counsell, but I thought he had one more year left and had value at SS in 2011 and it was reasonable to think Melvin thought the same. Now if he’s signed for 2012….

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 25, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Disagree on getting rid of McGehee

But agree on Taylor Green. Just keep McGehee around as one of our backup infielders if he doesn’t win his spot back. Odds are that some spot on the infield is going to need a month of filler time or so – especially with triage regulars like Weeks and Gamel. Who knows, he could see 1/2 to 2/3 time in a backup role.

by nullacct on Oct 25, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that you maybe a little low on Marcum for Arb3

But apart from that everything looks reasonable. Assuming that Doug can’t help himself and fills one of the RP slots with somebody like Hawkins for $4 million (I can’t think of a time when the Brewers did not have atleast one highish priced RP) it really shows how little money is available to fill the slots at 1B and SS.
Even at $4 million each for 1B and SS would – if everybody else was at the minimum – takes the payroll to over $90million.
I would not be surprised if they traded McGehee and re-signed JHJ to start at 3rd with Green on the bench.
Also I would prefer for them to give Gamel to get 1st shot at playing 1st and spend the money getting a better SS although it would not shock me if they cut Yuni and then bring him back at something less than the $6 million that he is due to make. There is nobody on the FA list of 1st Baseman that will be appreciably better than Gamel with spending alot of dollars (Actually outside of Prince and Albert I don’t know that any of the players on the Cots list would be that much better)

by Saltire on Oct 22, 2011 1:34 PM CDT reply actions  

Apologises for the even poorer grammer than normal

The comment was posted accidentally before I finished fixing.

by Saltire on Oct 22, 2011 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Marcum owes the Brewers $6 million after his postseason performance.

#stillbitter

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Oct 22, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd be cool with $10 or $15-off coupons for the fan shop from Shaun.

If you go to his first home start, you’d get one. I’d be really happy, and it would be like “hey, awesome, now I can buy stuff…Thank you, Shaun Marcum!”

It’s all about the merch…

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 22, 2011 4:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

$1.2 million for each of those o's, that's what he owes. At least.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Oct 23, 2011 12:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't know if he was left off on purpose or just forgotten

But Mitch Stetter probably belongs in there somewhere. I believe he’s Arb1.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 24, 2011 8:52 AM CDT reply actions  

I think Kottaras is gone, Maldonado up

Parra is probably gone too. Don’t see them wanting to pay that kind of money when he missed the entire 2011 season.

I have to believe they’ll at least wait and see what McGehee looks like in ST before letting him go.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 9:22 AM CDT reply actions  

To expand on Parra

If he were a FA from another team, you’d view him as a guy who has pitched 60 career innings in the bullpen, missed an entire year with elbow surgery, has no minor league options – and give him $1.5M? There’d be a string of “what the hell is Melvin doing” posts here if that happened.

They could decline to offer him arbitration and resign him for close to minimum if they wanted to. I don’t think there are going to be many teams that offer him over $1M given his age (29), extensive injury history, failed starting career and lack of experience in the bullpen.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

Kottaras

I don’t think they’ll get rid of Wolf’s personal catcher. Plus, I think they like having an additional lefty on the bench with some pop.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe, I could see either happening

They love Maldonado’s defense and he’s cheaper. Might at least see if they can get someone to bite on Kottaras in the trade market.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do you think Oswalt will bounce back next season?

He had that back problem that seem to reoccur this season… could be an issue again next year.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 25, 2011 11:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

I guess as a worst case scenario he would pitch the same

And I wouldn’t be too upset with his off-year numbers as long as the contract was incentive based, with a larger % kicking in with more IP. He’s only 33, and when healthy pitches at a very high level.

by nullacct on Oct 26, 2011 12:57 AM CDT up reply actions  

An incentive-based contract would definitely be necessary with Oswalt

His back (bulging disc) was bothering him so much last season that there was talk of him retiring at one point. I think he has some shots to allow him to begin pitching again. The problem is that if it’s a degenerative problem, eventually he won’t be able to pitch anymore.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 26, 2011 9:49 AM CDT up reply actions  

Randy Johnson

Had back issues at age 32 and was left for dead by Seattle at age 34. Never say never?

by nullacct on Oct 26, 2011 11:45 PM CDT up reply actions  

Left for dead?

That’s not quite how I remember it. He did have back problems at 32, but came back the following year with a great season. I’m pretty sure Johnson wanted out of Seattle so he was traded before the end of the following season before he became a FA.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 27, 2011 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions   1 recs

Also

I’m not sure if Johnson’s injury (which required back surgery) is the same as Oswalt’s injury.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 27, 2011 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

No two back injuries are alike.

They’re like painful snowflakes.

by nullacct on Nov 2, 2011 2:37 PM CDT up reply actions   2 recs

I might have to use that for my signature

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

And I never said "never"

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 27, 2011 10:42 PM CDT up reply actions  

Braun

According to Cot’s, his salary is only $6M next season (plus 1/8th of his $2.3M signing bonus).

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 11:31 AM CDT reply actions  

As far as I know, Cot's doesn't update midyear

It’s strictly opening day payroll. I know they don’t do trades, so I doubt they’ve updated 2012 for Braun’s extension before the 2011 season has even finished.

by ecocd on Oct 24, 2011 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cot's does do midseason updates

They have Hairston listed and show him on their payroll obligation spreadsheet.

Cot’s has both of Braun’s contracts listed. From what I can tell, he’s still on the contract he signed in 2008. The contract he signed earlier this year doesn’t go into effect until 2016.

Link

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions  

I use

This

from Cot’s.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 24, 2011 7:31 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right

Your link is on the page that I linked.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 25, 2011 11:40 PM CDT up reply actions  

Did you look at it?

Take a look at Braun’s contract dollar value in 2012. You said

According to Cot’s, his salary is only $6M next season

The salary commitments spreadsheet I use from Cot’s has it listed at $7M. That’s what I use.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2011 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions  

Oh, I didn't realize what you were trying to say

That is odd, but I noticed that the actual money paid to Braun is likely more than that.

$6M – amount listed for 8 yr deal
$2.3M – signing bonus for 8 yr deal ($278,500/yr), which is typically divided equally across the life of the contract when calculating team payroll
$10M – signing bonus for 5 yr deal ($2.5M/yr), which according to Cot’s is

paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015

If that’s all true, then he’s getting more like $8.8M next season.

I’m not suggesting you change your spreadsheet. It’s just that Braun’s contract has alot of money being paid as signing bonuses and deferred payments.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 26, 2011 3:13 PM CDT up reply actions  

Seems

that the Cot’s spreadsheet is adding an additional $1M to each of the seasons for Braun. Not sure where that amount is coming from.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 26, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

Wonder what kind of mood the Reds are in this off-season

And if they would take a rental in Greinke or Marcum to go for a run one more time with Phillips, Votto, et al….

Marcum for Yonder Alonso would be a pretty straight up even trade and they probably balance each other out production wise for 2012.

Takes about $5 million off of the salary burden and allows the team to purse either a pitcher or shortstop and spend some more $.

Intra division is pretty rare for obvious reasons, but wonder if they would bite on a Greinke for Alonso/Grandal and one more big piece sort of trade. That then even frees up more space on the payroll without sacrificing too much production.

by backtocali on Oct 24, 2011 2:51 PM CDT reply actions  

To trade Grienke for Alonso + somebody

Would leave the Brewers with ~ $20 million to get a SP plus a SS (Assuming that Alonso plays 1B).
Is Reyes+Alonso+$6 million SP better than Greinke+Gamel+$6million SS? Possibly
It is not as if there are alot of good SS FA out there. (Rollins will be overpriced in my opinion) and freeing up enough dollars to sign somebody like Reyes MAY work out better with a ok SP than Greinke and the possibilty of the return of Yuni…

by Saltire on Oct 24, 2011 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

They don't need to get a good SS to replace Yuni

They only need one that’s average.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions  

Right

Unlike a couple of the other posts here, you recognize that one good pitcher with a big contract is not as good as, say a young 1B that has big potential, and another big prospect, to go along with over $20 million in free cash to spend.

The Reds might not do it unless they felt what they had what it took to go “all in” as the Brewers did this year. A Greinke for Alonso/Grandal + some other smaller piece, fills a gap at 1B at a much lower cost, there is big time potential from Alonso offensively, you get one of the best catching prospects in the game (maybe) who is ready by 2013 which then allows you to trade the average Lucroy at that point for other needed parts, and maybe even a bullpen arm, or 4th OF type. You then have $23 million to spend on pieces you need such as a SS or 3B, and you can fill the pitching spot with a cheaper option who stays longer. Edwin Jackson perhaps.

At the very least you dont just fall off of a cliff after 2012, you get a couple of young pieces, you get some salary relief and you replace the production lost from dealing Greinke quite easily in Alonso/Jackson.

And a Marcum for Alonso straight up (again a big if) does the same thing. $5 million in additional payroll. Marcums production is replaced almost entirely by Alonso, and the extra cash allows you to bring in a better SS option, or a pitcher who is just as good for longer than a year.

by backtocali on Oct 25, 2011 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

Alonso, Grandal and others for 1 year of Greinke?

I don’t think the Reds have the parts to rebuild on the fly like the Brewers did last year. The offense is basically Votto, Bruce and a bunch of blah. The pitching staff is worse.

With Brewers and Cardinals figuring to make another run next year they seem like a better candidate to flip Votto and rebuild than flip their farm system.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 25, 2011 10:00 AM CDT up reply actions  

True

But someone with a strong farm system, with parts the Brewers could use to compete, might take that deal.

by backtocali on Oct 25, 2011 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions  

How about Marcum for a signed picture of Aroldis Chapman?

Personalized, of course.

"We’re here to win, man. All that fighting stuff, that’s for the birds." - Prince Fielder

by SRB on Oct 24, 2011 6:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

Dusty

will make him sign 132 pictures to make sure that Chapman gets it right.

Brewers:
2011 NL Central Champs!
National League #2 Seed
Franchise record for wins

by molitorfan on Oct 25, 2011 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

Everybody should rec this post to keep it at the top.

There are a few similar posts out there, but this one is the most comprehensive/easiest to read.

by tcyoung on Nov 1, 2011 2:57 PM CDT reply actions  

Charlie,

You might want to consider editting your post to take MLBtr’s arbitration estimates into account. :

by tcyoung on Nov 1, 2011 2:59 PM CDT reply actions  

Good call and I will do that

thank you sir

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2011 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think we can actually add back in $3M.

You show us paying $3.5M for KRod’s option. It’s actually a $4M option because of the extra 500k paid in exchange for removing his GF clause.

However, the Mets are paying $3.5M of that option, per Ken Rosenthal

5:05PM: Rodriguez’s buyout will now increase from $3.5MM to $4MM with the Mets paying the original buyout and the Brewers paying the remainder, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. K-Rod’s vesting option now kicks in with the same 55 games finished, though the clause is now meaningless (via Twitter).

link

That puts the Brewers on the hook for $500k, not $3.5M

by tcyoung on Nov 2, 2011 1:24 PM CDT reply actions  

$3 million is probably enough to pay for the remaining bullpen spots

Assuming that 2 of them will be at the minimum and there will be 1 FA signing for around $2million.
Assuming that Green takes the last IF spot and hopefully Hairston(rather than Kotsay) takes the remaining OF spot (Gamel can also play the OF so between the two the would be able to back-up alot of positions) that would leave around $6-7 million for a 1B and SS.
Unless the Brewers either make a trade, decide to cut somebody (McGehee ?) or Gamel takes the starting role at 1B during spring training there is not alot money available to sign anybody of note.

by Saltire on Nov 2, 2011 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

Excellent

and updated.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 2, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions  

Splurging on a Reliever : Melvin :: Playing Kotsay : Roenicke

Pretty sure DM will do it. He can’t resist. Who’s it gonna be?

by MooseHaas on Nov 2, 2011 11:40 PM CDT reply actions  

I think it's Mike Gonzalez.

He’s a lefty that DM tried to acquire at the deadline. He has closing experience, and he’s maintained good numbers throughout his career.

I could also see George Sherrill or Frank Francisco, but those guys fit into with Doug’s big reliever contract mold to a much lesser degree.

by tcyoung on Nov 3, 2011 7:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Wonder what he'd cost.

Dude made $12M over last 2 years and was worth a grand total of 0.7 WAR.

1.35 WHIP this season w/ 2.43 K/BB ratio. Yuck.

BUT, if you look a little closer, he faced 230 batters this season — and 120 were righties. His R/L OPS split was .900/.574.

W/ a huge paycut + usage as mostly a LOOGY, I could deal with it. They need someone to pair with Loe’s righty-only skills.

by MooseHaas on Nov 3, 2011 8:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

He played on a torn meniscus the last couple months and it gave out in the WS

He had surgery to fix it last week. He says he’ll be ready for Spring Training but who knows. If nothing else it affects his value quite a bit.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 3, 2011 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions  

Darren Oliver

How could he pass up a 40-yr old lefty from Texas?

by nullacct on Nov 4, 2011 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Now you've got me nervous...

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Nov 4, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions  

First!!!

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 13, 2011 1:05 PM CST reply actions  

And last.

Just kidding, I don’t have that power.

by tcyoung on Dec 13, 2011 1:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm not convinced

we’re keeping K-Rod. Melvin made a comment in the past couple of days that made it sound like he was not very comfortable with where the current payroll.

"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"

by roguejim on Dec 14, 2011 6:35 AM CST reply actions  

Link?

I thought the same but so far every time I’ve seen those comments it’s usually followed by something along the lines of keeping K-Rod.

by aka Mich on Dec 14, 2011 8:41 AM CST up reply actions  

Melvin, on where #Brewers already are with 2012 payroll: “We’ve stretched it well beyond where we wanted to go.”

-@Haudricourt

by tcyoung on Dec 14, 2011 9:19 AM CST reply actions  

not sure that means that K-Rod is gone though.

IIRC the context of that quote was in regard to signing a 1st baseman.

"I'm here to talk about the economy today -- about the need to get four quarters of strong, consistent performance. That wasn't another Jay Cutler joke, I swear. It could be, but it's not."

by Kuhl on Dec 14, 2011 9:47 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Also for reference

if everything stays where it is right now, and my estimates are correct, and two league minimum guys fill out those last two spots, beginning payroll would be at $98.15M.

So, if the team were to trade Rodriguez and eat $6M of the $11M, plus the fill-in salary of $480k, the payroll could go to $93.63M, which would doubtless be more comfortable for Doug.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 14, 2011 7:32 PM CST reply actions  

I was thinking about another option

What about holding onto K-Rod until they actually need to spend money on another player (e.g. injury replacement). I figured DM’s comfort level is really only to have some extra payroll room to allow for any contingencies or mid-season pickups.

I see no reason to eat a portion of K-Rod’s salary at this point just to have payroll space to add someone they may not need until later in the season.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Dec 15, 2011 9:30 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually they probably get the best ROI if they keep K-Rod all year

but you do have a very valid point.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 15, 2011 11:13 AM CST up reply actions  

If they fall out of contention, they'll trade him.

They’ll probably also trade Wolf and/or Marcum, and/or Greinke. it’ll just be the opposite strategy as years’ past. Instead of starting with a small payroll and expanding it if you are in contention, they’ll start with a big payroll and deflate it if they fall out of contention. The problem with this strategy is that it leaves you with no wiggle room to fill spots created by injury.

by tcyoung on Dec 16, 2011 9:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Agreed

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 16, 2011 10:15 PM CST up reply actions  

It's really about Mark's comfort level.

I always think back to Melvin signing A-Rod pretty much because Tom Hicks forced him to. So, maybe he’ll sweat about a payroll approaching $100MM, but he’ll do it if the boss gives the stamp.

by mpbMKE on Dec 16, 2011 5:43 PM CST up reply actions  

You forgot

to add Fielders new contract in there. :(

It’s finally setting in the big guy is gone. I always ripped on Cleveland for being babies when Lebron left. Now I know why they acted the way they did.

"Milk is for babies. When you grow up you have to drink beer."

by 1080p on Dec 16, 2011 12:53 AM CST reply actions  

According to Cot's...

George Kottaras is signed for $700k in 2012.

Also, Braun’s $10 million signing bonus is paid out in 4 equal installments from 2012 to 2015 – $2.5 million each year. So that would add to Braun’s 2012 salary.

Also, why are the signing bonuses spread out over the life of the contact? For example Corey Hart received a $1 million signing bonus when he signed his contract. Shouldn’t that $1 million show up fully in the year that he signed the contract rather than spreading it out $333k per year for the 3 years of the contract? Maybe I’m missing something, but I wasn’t aware that the Team pays out the signing bonus over the life of the contract.

by PJTweedy on Dec 29, 2011 6:49 PM CST reply actions  

Spreadsheet stays current

but I just updated this post. Actual salary running total will be on the left, then my original estimate, then MLBTR’s, per edit in original article.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Jan 8, 2012 11:54 AM CST reply actions  

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