Monday's Frosty Mug

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 24, 2011 11:27 AM CDT in Milwaukee Brewers News

Some things to read while ducking the bill collectors.

Speculation season is officially underway: Tom Haudricourt has a position-by-position look at the decisions the Brewers will have to make over the coming days and months. Here's more of what's out there this morning:

Charlie Marlow has a first look at the Brewers' projected 2012 payroll.
Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar has a look at some of the candidates available to replace Prince Fielder at first base.
Brad of View From Bernie's Chalet has a Christmas Wish List.
C. Trent Rosecrans of CBS has a preview of the offseason.

Meanwhile, the JS had an extended look back this weekend, and issued team and individual grades for the 2011 Brewers.

Despite having a pretty good season, Randy Wolf only received a B- from the JS staff. He did, however, edge out Jerry Hairston Jr in our Brewer of the NLCS voting.

This has been a favorite topic for many of you in the comments for months now, so here's some more fodder for the conversation: Lee Panas of Tiger Tales took a look at the numbers from 2011 and concludes that the Brewers may have been lucky, winning seven more games than their run totals would suggest they should have.

Here's an interesting note on Jonathan Lucroy's plate discipline: Jacob Peterson of Beyond the Box Score says that Lucroy takes 24.2% of pitches in the strike zone, and swings at 13.8% outside. That combination makes him the eighth most "passive-aggressive" hitter in all of baseball. Corey Hart, meanwhile, the the eleventh least passive-aggressive.

In the minors:

The AFL is off on Sundays but Caleb Gindl had a big day in Venezuela, going 2-for-3 with a double, home run and two walks in Caracas' 10-5 win over Lara. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes.
Taylor Green was an honorable mention on Project Prospect's list of 2011's top ten position players in AAA.
Brewersprospects.com has reviews of Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg's 2011 seasons.

Apparently if you're a rehabbing pitcher, social media is a good way to kill some time. Manny Parra became the latest Brewer to jump onto Twitter over the weekend (FanShot).

Around baseball:

Athletics: Hired former Red Sox pitching coach Curt Young as their new pitching coach.
Blue Jays: Claimed pitcher Jesse Chavez off waivers from the Royals and announced that pitcher Rommie Lewis, infielder Chris Woodward and outfielder DeWayne Wise have all elected to become free agents.
Padres: Pitcher Jeff Fulchino has elected to become a free agent.
Pirates: Are expected to decline club options for catchers Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit.

You may have noticed that the World Series is still going on, and will continue for at least a few more days. Tauntr has a guide to help you assess Tony LaRussa's managerial skills. (h/t @jh_moore) By the way, if you still haven't choisen a team to root for, this t-shirt might help you decide.

I thought this number was pretty interesting: Baseball Musings notes that, now that we're assured the World Series will go six games, baseball will miss at most four possible playoff games in 2011: 19 of 20 possible LDS games were played along with 12 of 14 possible LCS games.

I'm not sure it's something I'd do, but I can see the logic: If you're only going to one World Series game in your life, you might as well do it while wearing matching hot dog costumes.

Today in former Brewers:

Brett Lawrie made Baseball America's All-Rookie Team.
1992 Brewer Scott Fletcher is the Braves' new assistant hitting coach.

I remember this day pretty clearly, because the Astros were in Milwaukee when it happened. With that said, getting to see it from this angle is pretty cool: Businessweek has an inside look at the conversations that led to the Astros' decision to trade outfielder Michael Bourn to the Braves this summer. (h/t BBTF)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this might be one of the most notable stadium dimension overhauls in recent memory: The Mets are bringing in the fences at Citi Field this winter, and the most notable shift will be a 25 foot reduction in right-center.

Here's something you probably already knew: Sometimes producing unique daily winter content for a baseball site can be a bit of a challenge. With that said, we're doing our best to get all the way through to spring training without having to discuss new Pop Tart flavors.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to explain it again.

Drink up.

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Comments

I am holding up a big L with my hand right now

No, Lee Panos is not my alter ego, but it is nice to know he has been reading the memos I have sent to him.

by backtocali on Oct 24, 2011 12:54 PM CDT reply actions

Sigh, those articles are annoying

If you want to look at RS/RA and conclude that a team is “lucky” I guess go nuts. Its like analysis from 1998.

The main reason for the discrepancy in Milwaukee’s wins and expected wins was their outstanding 30-18 record in one-run games. Part of that was likely due to a strong bullpen headed by closer John Axford. However, it is difficult for any team to sustain such a good record in close games for a full year. So, there may also have been some good fortune involved. In order to win the same number of games next year, they’ll probably need to either score more runs or give up fewer.

He doesn’t even reach a conclusion, just that their “may” be some good luck. His top lucky teams in the NL matches up pretty close to the top win totals in the NL (MIL, AZ, SFG, ATL, PHI, STL), as do the bad teams (HOU, SDP, COL)

So teams that win a lot of games have some luck and good bullpens to win close games. Shocking.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions

It isn't even really analysis

You could get the same information from Baseball Prospectus (and other sites) every day throughout the season, and B-Pro actually attempts to go further with second- and third-order win percentage, correcting for some of the inherent errors in Pythagorean W-L. Sort it by the far better stat, second-order win%, and you have a much more accurate measurement, before you even get into the problems with calling the differences “luck”:

Diamondbacks: 10.5
Pirates: 8.5
Braves: 4
Giants: 3
Brewers: 2.5
Nationals: 2
Phillies: 1.5
Cardinals: .5
Cubs: .5
Mets: -1
Padres: -2.5
Dodgers: -3.5
Reds: -4
Astros: -5
Rockies: -7
Marlins: -8

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 24, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions

keeping it simple

Yup, there are lot’s of more sophisticated things you can try. You can estimate runs scored and runs allowed based on Base Runs and then apply the pythagorean theorem. That’s what second and third order winning percentage is about. Theoretically, that is more accurate but not a lot more accurate. And then you have the second layer of estimates to think about (runs and runs allowed). I’d rather deal with those separately than mix it all together in one formula. I’ll probably do that in a later post.

Tiger Tales

by LPanas on Oct 24, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions

It seems to me that particularly for the 2011 Brewers, second order explains a lot that first order doesn't.

Take, for example, the difference between the Brewers’ and their opponents’ splits with the bases loaded:

Brewers: .261/.286/.319, 1 HR, 83 runs in 140 PAs (.59 runs/PA)
Opponents: .262/.287/.505, 5 HR, 85 runs in 115 PAs (.74 runs/PA)

That’s a massive difference, one that sabermetrics have shown us is much more attributable to luck and random variance than to skill. But that difference isn’t accounted for in first-order win%. It is, though, in second order.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 24, 2011 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions

two steps

Agreed. It appears that the Brewers may have been unlucky in terms of runs scored. I just don’t want to make that assumption right off the bat. I don’t want to trust the second order winning percentage until I examine the run estimates that go into it.

Tiger Tales

by LPanas on Oct 24, 2011 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions

That's fair

I’m curious to see what you come up with, especially if your formula is different from B-Pro’s.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 24, 2011 6:14 PM CDT up reply actions

no correlation

supertramp, there is really not much correlation between being good and the ability to win close games. Take a look at the AL results:

http://www.detroittigertales.com/2011/10/one-run-wins-boosted-tigers-in-2011.html

No, there is nothing shocking in my article. It mostly serves as a kickoff to other analyses I’m going to do this off-season.

Tiger Tales

by LPanas on Oct 24, 2011 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm familar with RS/RA, and it can be useful to look at

Also, as Cheeseandcorn points out, there are other methods that attempt to fix some of the errors in it.

There are some people who use RS/RA, such as the first poster on this thread, to somehow argue “See I told you they weren’t that good, they’re lucky!” which was what I referring to.

Apologizes if it came off like I was attacking you.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions

It was tongue in cheek, of course

But if you want to be a Sabermetrician, and subscribe to the theory that luck does play some part, at the very least the team was lucky by at least 4 wins (3rd order).

Sure 1st order isnt be all end all analysis, but it does illustrate some things that the W-L record do not reflect.

And as I have stated many times, I believe that this years team was good, even in pre season, they were lucky as well. Not as lucky as Mr Panos of 1st order Pythagorean W-L record would suggest, but they were lucky.

by backtocali on Oct 24, 2011 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions

3rd order isn't supposed to measure luck

It measures luck + schedule. 2nd order is the best pure luck measurement we have.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 24, 2011 2:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Have you (and do you continue to) stroll over to the D-Backs page to point out how lucky they were?

Or is it just us that grace with your insight?

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 24, 2011 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions

It's pretty much the same thing BTC has been saying though:

I didn’t predict it, so it must be luck.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 24, 2011 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Can you guess what letter I'm making with my hand?

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 24, 2011 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

An 'I' or lowercase 'L'

by cwolf20 on Oct 24, 2011 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Troll

One who posts a deliberately provocative message to a newsgroup or message board with the intention of causing maximum disruption and argument

"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa

by mnbrewer on Oct 24, 2011 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

I'm also having all kinds of problems getting the Mug to show up on the BCB page

Not sure if others are.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 24, 2011 1:24 PM CDT reply actions

I was for a while, but I think it's ok now.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 24, 2011 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions

I think I figured out the Russian announcers' confusion.

Is that Randy Wolf doing “Beast Mode” or a cute little speaking children’s book?

Author at Acme Packing Company

@TexWestern

by texwestern on Oct 24, 2011 1:27 PM CDT reply actions 6 recs

Mets moving in the right-field fences?

“Mr. Fielder, I think you will find this contract offer very interesting.”

by ecocd on Oct 24, 2011 2:19 PM CDT reply actions

I understand that what Doug says is not what Doug thinks, but

“I thought Yuni Betancourt was a better player than what the critics said,” said Melvin.

Perhaps Doug is thinking of one or two critics who may have insinuated that Yuni will be the direct cause of human decline on Earth or is a close relative of the Antichrist, but aside from that I think it’s safe to say that Yuni was far worse than most reporters were clued to. For all the attention Counsell got for his little hitless streak, Yuni should have been a traveling circus sideshow. “Hereye, hereye, step right up and see the man field a baseball with no hands! Watch him swing bat right though a baseball! See him smile at the camera after blowing yet another game because after living in America for seven years he still doesn’t speak a word of English!”

“Watch a clueless GM get himself fired by paying this freak of nature six million dollars!”

by nullacct on Oct 24, 2011 4:17 PM CDT reply actions

It should be "golden hands"

Maybe DM is a reader here and saw that thread about comparing Yuni to a pan of lasagna.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 24, 2011 5:00 PM CDT up reply actions

That was one of my favorites this year.

"fortunate, but also lucky"

by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Oct 24, 2011 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions

You can't trust the Critic.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Oct 24, 2011 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Why such a long write-up when all we are going to say is...

Tim Dillard, RHP – Dillard remade his career by switching to a side-arming style in the minor leagues and had three separate bullpen stints with the Brewers, joining them for good Sept. 6 but not making the postseason roster. A middle reliever, Dillard went through long periods of inactivity with the Brewers’ starters routinely going deep in games. His best moment came June 5 in Florida, when he earned his first major-league win after retiring all five batters he faced. He finished 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in 24 appearances while holding opponents to a .241 average (26 for 108, three HRs). His free-spirit personality fit well in a wacky group of relievers. Grade: C.

…WHO?

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Oct 24, 2011 4:53 PM CDT reply actions

Don't know if that was sarcasm or not

Tim Dillard was a big enough part of the team this season to get his own report & grade.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Oct 24, 2011 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions

Dillard has a personality?

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Oct 24, 2011 5:59 PM CDT up reply actions

Who?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 24, 2011 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

You should get a customized Jersey with Dillard's number, and "Who?" written across the top.

Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".

by Yar Nivek on Oct 24, 2011 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs

lol

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Oct 24, 2011 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions

Haha so awesome

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 25, 2011 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions

Also: Narron, Jerry

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 25, 2011 12:32 AM CDT up reply actions

Jerry Narron would write Dillard's name as...

Wh?

That dog just won't hunt.

by Bush League All Star on Oct 25, 2011 1:51 AM CDT up reply actions

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NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	25	20	.555	0	Lost 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	21	.543	0.5	Lost 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	23	.488	3	Won 4
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	21	24	.466	4	Won 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	26	.422	6	Won 2
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	30	.333	10	Lost 10