MVBrewer #1: Ryan Braun

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 25, 2011 2:00 PM CDT in Most Valuable Brewers 2011

I think I'd like a poster of this moment: Ryan Braun's first inning home run in Game 1 of the NLCS.

After a nearly unanimous vote, Ryan Braun is the winner of the #1 spot on our list of 2011's Most Valuable Brewers.

Braun is almost certainly going to finish either first or second in the NL MVP voting this season, and it's easy to see why. Just take a look at where his 2011 numbers rank among the Brewers, the National League and franchise history:

Stat	Braun	Among Brewers	Among NL	Franchise History
Batting Average	.332	1st	2nd	3rd
On base percentage	.397	2nd	5th	14th
Slugging percentage	.597	1st	1st	3rd
OPS	.994	1st	1st	4th
Doubles	38	1st	4th	21st
Home runs	33	2nd	6th	20th
Runs Scored	109	1st	2nd	10th
RBI	111	2nd	4th	18th

Braun is almost certainly coming off the best offensive season in franchise history, and only Robin Yount's 1982 season was more valuable overall. He also led the team in hits (187) and stolen bases (33) and tied for the team lead in triples (6).

Of course, there's still reason to believe the best is yet to come for the Brewers' superstar. He's only turning 28 in November and is under contract for nine more seasons, plus a mutual option for 2021. Braun would be valuable at any price but his current deal is even more helpful to the Brewers: He earned just $4 million while putting up MVP numbers in 2011 and will only make $6 million next season and $8.5 million in 2013.

The only real question the Brewers will have to answer with Braun going forward involves his defense. He's an elite athlete but seems to struggle at times with some of the instinctive requirements involved in playing the outfield. He'll make more than his share of flashy, highlight reel plays but also allows balls to drop at times by taking poor routes. His arm is also very strong but erratic. At some point the Brewers may have to consider moving him to first base.

With that said, his UZR numbers from the last three seasons would suggest he's made some improvement (although the sample size is too small to say for sure):

Season	UZR	UZR per 150 games
2009	-13.4	-11.7
2010	-10.2	-9
2011	-3.8	-4.7

Poll

When his contract expires following the 2020 (or 2021) season, Ryan Braun will be:

A near certain Hall of Famer, and a player the Brewers got a great deal on.

356 votes

A good, productive long-term major leaguer the Brewers got fair value from.

46 votes

An albatross contract the Brewers will be happy to be rid of.

8 votes

410 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 33 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

I used to think Braun was awesome

And then he signed a charity contract and said “I want to be a Brewer forever.” Now he can do no wrong in my eyes.

<3 Braun

by nullacct on Oct 25, 2011 2:40 PM CDT reply actions

You're referring to the first contract right?

That one he signed earlier this year isn’t really “charity”.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 25, 2011 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes, the first one

The second one is his retirement plan. Nobody is worth $20MM a year after age 32.

by nullacct on Oct 25, 2011 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions

Good thing he never earns near that much in any year.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 25, 2011 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

Right

I think it tops out at $15M thanks to the deferred money.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 25, 2011 11:46 PM CDT up reply actions

oh, ok

B-R said $20MM option in 2021

by nullacct on Oct 26, 2011 7:05 AM CDT up reply actions

The option is for $15M and is a mutual option

It increases to $20M if he earns some awards (MVP, SS, GG), but even if he does meet the awards criteria, the extra $5M would be deferred.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 26, 2011 9:54 AM CDT up reply actions

Per Cot's

5 years/$105M (2016-20), plus 2021 option

    signed extension with Milwaukee 4/21/11
    $10M signing bonus (paid in 4 equal installments each April 1 from 2012 to 2015)
    16:$19M, 17:$19M, 18:$19M, 19:$18M, 20:$16M, 21:$15M mutual option ($4M buyout)
    price of option may increase to $20M based on MVP, Silver Slugger, Gold Glove awards (if earned, award escalators are deferred without interest)
    $18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031
—-8 years/$45M (2008-15)

signed extension with Milwaukee 5/15/08, replacing 1 year/$0.455M contract for 2008 renewed 3/2/08
    $2.3M signing bonus
    08:$0.455M, 09:$0.745M, 10:$1M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M, 13:$8.5M, 14:$10M, 15:$12M
    may earn additional $6M if Braun qualifies as a Super 2 after 2009 season, increasing salaries to: 10:$3.5M, 11:$5.5M, 12:$7.5M, 13:$9M (did not qualify)
    award bonus: $50,000 for All Star selection
    no-trade clause 2008-11, limited no-trade clause 2012-13 (may block deals to 12 clubs), limited no-trade clause 2014-15 (may block deals to 6 clubs)
    perks: suite for home games
    Braun to donate $25,000 annually to club charity

Link

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 26, 2011 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions

One small gripe

I disagree that the sample size is too small. It’s a full season’s worth. Correct? A season is only so long. At some point the metrics you have are the metrics you have. He’s played leftfield for three full seasons and those improvements are notable.

by Bertwerst on Oct 25, 2011 2:53 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, but most people agree that you need several years worth of UZR to get an accurate view.

Isn’t a full season of UZR equivalent to something like 200 PA?

by Noah Jarosh on Oct 25, 2011 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes

What’s more, is UZR is broken down into components, and if you look, you’ll see that in ‘09, his low score is primarily a product of terrible range, coupled with a mediocre arm, whereas in ’10, it was mediocre range coupled with a horrendous arm. In other words, component by component, it’s kind of been all over the map on Braun. It wouldn’t surprise me if his true talent is closer to the ’11 number—bad, but not God awful

If I were Ryan Braun, I'd be really excited to be Ryan Braun, too.
I'm writing a little for disciplesofuecker.com now. Go there to read the stuff Jack, Jordan, and Toby write, and if you want to read some of my stuff, that's cool, too.

by Lefti on Oct 25, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions

If that's the discrepancy

I get it. I guess I’m not sold on the whole UZR rating for this reason then. When I look at stats, they should be significant for that season. This is the inherent value of OPS+ or ERA+ is it compares one players value against the league for that season. It’s a different frame of reference to observe a players defense and say “well, we have to wait 3 years because you can’t draw any meaningful conclusions just yet.” Instead of comparing horizontally with other statistics from the same year, you’re forced to look vertically with the rest of the players career in mind. IDK, maybe I’m just lazy.

by Bertwerst on Oct 25, 2011 3:20 PM CDT up reply actions

Oops, If you're talking about discerning a player's

true talent level, UZR is only reliable for predicting future performance after about three seasons of data, but if you’re talking, “How good was Ryan Braun in LF last year?” then UZR is an accurate measure of that performance. So it depends on the conversation you’re having. Will Ryan Braun keep improving in LF? Maybe. Was he better this last season than ’09 and ’10? Yes, definitely.

by brewjoles on Oct 25, 2011 3:42 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Thanks.

by Bertwerst on Oct 25, 2011 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions

UZR has flaws even as a measure of what happened in one season

Much better to look at it like “this guy was a minus defender in UZR, do my eyes/scouts agree?”

by cwolf20 on Oct 26, 2011 10:56 AM CDT up reply actions

Eh, sort of

I don’t think UZR is all that great for evaluating OF defense.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Oct 26, 2011 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions

Don't know why I wrote "oops."

by brewjoles on Oct 25, 2011 3:43 PM CDT reply actions

I dont think the choices here are mutually exclusive.

I think that he will be a near certain Hall of Famer, but will also have an albatross contract that the Brewers will happy to be rid of.

I hate Yuni.

by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 25, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions

Unless he has some monster seasons in the middle

He’ll need to still be a productive major leaguer at age ~37 or so to have any shot at being a Hall of Famer.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 25, 2011 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions

I could see his contract situation toward the end being a lot like Todd Helton's with the Rockies

Helton’s still a productive major leaguer at age 37, not a Hall of Famer but has had a fantastic career, and is the heart and soul of that Rockies franchise. But his contract over the past few years has been a real bear for a mid-market team like the Rockies, to the point where he’s agreed to rework his contract to defer money.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 25, 2011 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions

I wold say Helton is possibly a hall of famer

Career .323/.421/.550 hitter. And that average is all the voters will look at anyway.

"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa

by mnbrewer on Oct 25, 2011 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions

The voters will also look pretty hard at Coors Field and his home/road splits

I think he’s got a decent case, but he’s got to perform pretty well for a couple more years before he’s there.

by Cheeseandcorn on Oct 25, 2011 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Jim Rice is in the Hall of Fame...

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions

Still can't handle that...

What makes it worse is that if he had played for any other team (except maybe the Yankees or Cubs) he wouldn’t have gotten half the votes.

"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa

by mnbrewer on Oct 26, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Albatross? doubtful.

Even when he starts to decline as a player (no signs pointing to this anytime soon), the “brand” of Ryan Braun will still pay dividends at the gate that will more than offset his contract. I think he will be more popular on the national scale in Brewers history than Yount…if he isn’t already.

by Bertwerst on Oct 25, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Only if he helps the team win.

If the team isn’t winning Braun alone isn’t going to draw to many people. So the real question is if he will hit enough in those last few years not to be an anchor. He is never paid more than $15m in any one year taking the deferred money into account.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 25, 2011 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I forgot about the deferred money

That makes his 5 yr deal more like a 16 yr deal.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Oct 25, 2011 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah that part kind of sucks as things stand right now.

I guess they are counting on the financial landscape of baseball being quite a bit different by then.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 25, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions

Either that or selling the team so it's the next guy's problem.

Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.

by cooper82 on Oct 25, 2011 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions

I also forgot about the deferred money

I hate Yuni.

by BrewCrewBrian on Oct 26, 2011 7:07 AM CDT up reply actions

Ryan Braun is amazing.

’Nuff said.

Go ahead, make my day.

by ilikeburritos on Oct 25, 2011 6:05 PM CDT reply actions

I'd be interested what those 7 'albatross' voters have to say.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Oct 26, 2011 1:22 PM CDT reply actions

The first inning home run of a man’s career is definitely a major stepping stone, as well as a sure sign of how well he will do in the future. I think it is great that this article has focused on him instead of focusing on other things.

Halloween

by malika hassani on Oct 26, 2011 11:35 PM CDT reply actions

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