MVBrewers #5: Zack Greinke
by Noah Jarosh on Oct 31, 2011 2:00 PM CDT
in Most Valuable Brewers 2011
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When thinking about most valuable players, Zack Greinke brings up an interesting question. Is a more valuable player, in retrospect, still the player who "pitched the best" i.e. had the better advanced statistics like FIP, xFIP, etc? Or is a more valuable player the one who managed to create the better results, i.e. a lower ERA?
Zack Greinke was certainly one of the best in the former category. Greinke's 2.56 xFIP was the best in the majors in 2011. Better than Cliff Lee, better than Roy Halladay, better than CC Sabathia, better than Justin Verlander, better than everyone. Greinke's 2.98 FIP was the best on the Brewers. Greinke's peripheral stats were absolutely incredible. And despite missing a month of the season, Greinke still outpaced every other pitcher in fWAR.
Unfortunately, that translated into just the fourth best ERA on the team (not that a 3.83 ERA is bad, of course--that's just a testament to how good the entire pitching staff was). Even Randy Wolf had better results. Greinke's problem all season long was the long ball and giving up home runs at seemingly the worst possible times. Often, it seemed as though Greinke was dominating an opposing lineup only to lose focus after a few innings and let runners on base before throwing a meatball down the middle of the plate.Those tendencies got to be very frustrating at times.
Still, home runs aside, Greinke was an excellent pitcher all year long. With a better defense behind him, he could potentially have garnered some attention for the NL Cy Young. The only thing that Zack seemingly couldn't do was pitch deep into games. He pitched into the eighth inning just twice, and couldn't make it out of the inning either time. That's probably at least somewhat in part to him trying to strikeout more hitters due to an awful defense behind him, which we know he was cognizant of.
His best game, according to WPA, was one of those two games, though. On August 28, against the Cubs, Greinke went 7.2 innings and allowed just one run on four hits and two walks, with seven strikeouts. He possibly could have made it the full eight innings, but after allowing a runner to reach second, Greinke was pulled in favor of Francisco Rodriguez. If you're curious, you can read our recap of the game here or check out video highlights here:
Greinke is still under contract for one more year and $13.5MM, the most the Brewers will owe to a player in 2012 as it stands right now.
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In my opinion
The pitcher who gives his team the most/best opportunities to win is the more valuable pitcher. The quickest way to measure that is Quality Starts, and Gallardo led the team.
It's just backtocali
He was trying to pull a Cameron Garfield but got tired and quit. Totally kittenmittons’d it.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 1, 2011 7:59 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Even though I did vote for this
And only once I should add, the survey title itself shows why its not a horrible idea…..“it’s an expensive year”….
If, as I had speculated, you could move him for an mlb ready SS, 3B, or 1B such as a guy like Yonder Alonso, or even a Lonnie Chisenhall type, as well as a very nice prospect, you replace his (Greinke’s) contributsions (projected 4 WAR) with a 2 WAR season from your mlb ready guy, you get a top notch prospect, you dump $13.5 million which you can add to the $10 million you already have.
Lets just say you can work out a deal like that…you lose Zack’s 4 WAR and replace it with 2 with your mlb ready player, you bring in 2 more perhaps with a Barmes like player at $3 or $4 million and you also add, say Edwin Jackson at 4 years $10 mil per and thats another 3 WAR. In the end, you are 2 wins better and still have $10 million to spend on a spare part or July 31 acquistion.
So basically trade him if you can get the perfect trade
Shouldn’t you be doing that with every player?
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 1, 2011 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Doesnt have to be the perfect trade
But if it allows you to dramatically cut costs while at the same time improving for the future, and replacing part of what was lost in production, yes.
Not every player has the marketability in a trade like Greinke does. Teams will over pay for him, and if youc an get a deal such as an Alonso or Chisenhall + prospect or 2 for him, it works.
Just as it was with Fielder the year before, the trading of salary relief for prospects is always going to be a good move for a team like the Brewers, instead of anchoring hopes on one player who is quite expensive.
You're still talking in ideals
“If they can get Player X or Player Y + a Player Z type, they should trade him.”
The hard part is that we don’t know a) what the market it for Greinke and b) if Player X, Y or Z is available.
Trading one player for prospects can be a franchise killer if they aren’t the right prospects.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 1, 2011 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
For example
You suggest trading Fielder for Lars Anderson and Casey Kelly. That would have been a really bad trade for the Brewers.
Just because a guy is a top 50 prospect by Baseball America doesn’t mean he should immediately be traded for when you have a $90-$100m payroll.
Get a ife broseph
That was one option
But the Hudson/Viciedo deal would have been very good for the team. Kelly still has potential to be a mid rotation starting pitcher and a good one at that.
That line of thinking was also before the Sox picked up Gonzalez or before the Brewers picked up Greinke/Marcum.
You can say that it could have been a franchise killing type deal, but DM really hasnt done himself any credit so far with what he did last year. His goal was to win a pennant, to get one last year of production from Fielder and go for “it all”. They did not accomplish “all”, and thus it was a very big gamble that did not pay off, and in the end, they may wind up only getting a comp pick and 2nd rounder for him. Putting that much faith in a scouting staff that has drafted very poorly 2 of the last 3 years and a “meh” draft last year is very risky. And again, if you dont accomplish “all” or at least a pennant, then you spent all that money and didnt accomplish your goal. In politics and business, those are both considered failures. and I think that for a small market club like Milwaukee, it is as well.
That last paragraph was great
You sound pretty upset about a team you’re not a fan of
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 1, 2011 10:15 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ive said it before
And will say again “I want to really like the team” but do not like the way the organization is run.
Put a Rays type model in place and you will turn me into a fan.
I work in big business finance, have been a part of a high level D1 baseball program, and have high standards for my politicians. I just believe that in the big boy world of major league baseball, the end result should be a WS win and at the very least an NL pennant for this franchise, and drawing fans or making playoff appearances dont mean all that much in the end if you dont have a sound philosophical approach to building your smallest market in baseball organization so that you can sustain long term success for the product on the field instead of short sighted one and done thinking.
Honest question
Why aren’t you a Rays fan? Wouldn’t that be more enjoyable than spending your time here?
Get a ife broseph
I am a fan of the way the Rays do business
But I dont live there and dont attend any of their games. Ive made a couple of posts here and there on their board, but do not have the same level of availability and knowledge about the franchis as I do with the Brewers. There is also a conflict of interest that I have that would not allow me to be as active there, or objective as I can be here.
I believe you said the Brewer playoff game was the only game you went to all year
Surely going to games isn’t a deterrent.
I assumed that if you wanted the Brewers to adopt a Rays type model, you would have lots of knowledge about their franchise. Surprised that a lack of knowledge would prevent you from contributing on their blog.
Get a ife broseph
This is the first year in about 10 that I havent gone to more games
New home and 2 year old kind of put a damper on going to games this year.
And regards to conflict of interest
Wouldn’t you say you have one with the Brewers, and yet it still allows you to be “objective.”
Part of this is also that I know people who have worked and now work in the front office, and I have a somewhat insiders view of what goes on around there, and it just turns me off with certain parts of the organization.
It doesn’t add up man.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 1, 2011 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
It never does.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 2, 2011 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions
"there is also a conflict of interest that I have that would not allow me to be as active there, or objective as I can be here"....
…. lol… you should take that act on the road.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 2, 2011 11:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Seriously, its really easy
They’d love the insight of someone who has worked in big business finance AND a high level D1 program. Especially one with high standards.
Get a ife broseph
"The result should be a WS win or at least an NL pennant for the franchise"
I don’t necessarily agree. Everyone knows the playoffs are a lottery – this year we had a team that was pretty arguably in the top four of baseball and has the chance to compete next year as well. I’d say that made it just about worth the gamble even though we lucked out against the Cards.
"I love it when any team called 'The Brew Crew' wins": Tad Kubler
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
by MrLeam on Nov 1, 2011 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
"I want to really like the team"
Yeah, I’m calling bullshit on that. You clearly enjoy being the wet blanket far more than you would pulling for them or any other franchise. If that weren’t true, you’d be all over the Giants or Rays SBN sites, not this one.
And save your resume speech; you’ve been caught embellishing your experiences too often before for that sort of thing to impress.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 2, 2011 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions
There is always a big demande for front of the rotation starting pitchers
And yes it is an ideals type of thought here, but we know that Chisenhall and Alonso are mlb ready and have begun to prove themselves at that level. Are they available? Who knows, but that is DM’s job to determine what is available for a player like Greinke, and then ask his scouting staff if he felt that a trade where Alonso/Grandal + or Chisenhall + would help the team now and in thefuture.
Absolutely
He’d ask his scouting staff, the Org’s numbers/analytical people and anyone else in the Org.
Just because they don’t make a trade this offseason doesn’t mean he didn’t do his homework.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 1, 2011 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes
Not really suggesting that it is anything but.
I would be shocked though if this were a deal DM were exploring this season. I am pretty certain you could get top quality return on the guy though.
You know my philosophy, so this isnt really anything new from me. But it is fun to speculate, and imo, is the best sort of philosophy for a small market team to have given financial constraints and 2012 being the last year their window is open for a while.
Why is Greinke's projected WAR only 4?
His WAR his season was 3.9, which was his lowest over his last four seasons.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
If you want to factor in a full seasons worth of production
I could project him for 4.6 WAR, either way getting 7 WAR for 4 or 4.6 is always a better deal especially when you factor in that it lasts for at least 4 to 5 years worth of production versus Greinke’s one.
In unconstrained optimization, sure.
But there’s a 25 man roster constraint. If DM traded Greinke for seven 1 WAR players, I’d be furious.
Applying pop culture to Brewers discussions since 2009, earning the nickname of "Our Little Abed".
Except thats not what is being proposed
If this occured, the acquired players would all fill spots that are currently/or would be because of the trade, open on the 25 man roster.
keep him for next year
if they’re a contender keep him and resign him for reasonable money if they look to be in the running for several more years.
if they’re out of it, trade him for a good, young position player and prospects. teams in contention will overpay for a good starting pitcher at the trading deadline. He’d pull in at least a good position player and top prospect (and probably more) in a trade.
To the right team at the deadline
We could a handful of great prospects for an ace like Greinke. However, I think he still has the ability to veto trades in his current contract. But if he likes playing in Milwaukee I say we sign him long term. He’s pretty cool, and he pitches awesome.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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