Stat Of The Night: For Zack Greinke, Better To Be Lucky Than Good

by Kyle Lobner on Oct 9, 2011 8:00 PM CDT in Statistical Analysis

Today was not one of Zack Greinke's better days: He allowed six runs over six innings (plus one batter in the seventh). Most days a no decision is the best outcome one could hope for in that situation, but the Brewer offense picked Greinke up with a six run fifth inning and got him the win.

Greinke's outing today was worth -.334 WPA, making it the fourth worst outing by a winning starting pitcher in MLB postseason history:

Pitcher	Team	Season	Series	Game	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	WPA
Warren Spahn	Braves	1957	WS	4	10	11	5	5	1	2	-.427
Ed Walsh	White Sox	1906	WS	5	6	5	6	1	5	5	-.373
Tom Seaver	Mets	1969	NLCS	1	7	8	5	5	3	2	-.358
Zack Greinke	Brewers	2011	NLCS	1	6	8	6	6	2	6	-.334
Steve Carlton	Phillies	1980	WS	2	8	10	4	3	6	10	-.245

To use another measure, Greinke's Game Score today was 36. Among winning starting pitchers in MLB postseason history, that's tied for the fifth lowest, and is the worst since Oliver Perez won a game for the 2006 Mets with a 33.

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Comments

Well -

At least I don’t have a huge problem with the surrounding names on that list!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Oct 9, 2011 8:20 PM CDT reply actions

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