MVBrewer #6: Shaun Marcum
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 1, 2011 2:01 PM CDT
in Most Valuable Brewers 2011
Email
PrintUnfortunately an awful finish to the 2011 season is going to be what people remember from Shaun Marcum. That's a shame, because he was really pretty consistently good until September 1:
| Month | ERA | IP |
| April | 2.21 | 36.2 |
| May | 3.44 | 34 |
| June | 4.03 | 29 |
| July | 3.90 | 30 |
| August | 2.95 | 39.2 |
| September | 5.17 | 31.1 |
| Postseason | 14.90 | 9.2 |
When we reviewed the first half of the 2011 season, I asked Jordan if any Brewer pitcher would have a second half as good as Marcum's first half. At that point Marcum's ERA was under 3, he was striking out more than eight batters per nine innings and walking under 2.5. He was one of the reasons the Brewers were able to hold things together when Zack Greinke missed April and Yovani Gallardo struggled early.
Despite the fact that Marcum typically doesn't throw a lot of pitches, he threw six or more innings in 13 straight starts from April 7 until June 17, and 12 of 13 again from July 4 through September 9. Unfortunately, it looks like there's a strong chance those innings caught up to him down the stretch.
Marcum missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and threw 195.1 frames for the Blue Jays in 2010. Including three playoff starts, he threw 211.1 in 2011. Many of the lasting memories from his late season fade came as he was approaching or after he'd passed his previous career high. For his part, Marcum said he felt fine in his late season outings. But his results obviously were anything but fine.
Whether Marcum was worn out, injured, not pitching well or just unlucky down the stretch this season, he's going to have a tough hill to climb with this team in 2012. Fair or unfair, he's going to be labeled as one of the players who cost this team a shot at the World Series and it's going to take more than a good start or two to make people get past that. Hopefully he comes to camp motivated, in great shape and ready to prove his doubters wrong.
Best Game
On May 6, the Brewers were six games under .500 at 13-19 and in fifth place in the NL Central. They turned it around pretty quickly from there, though, winning 10 of their next 14 to get back to .500. On Saturday, May 21 they sent Marcum to the mound just a few hours removed from an intense, 14th inning walkoff victory and he kept the momentum going. The Brewers gave him two runs in the first and Marcum took it from there, allowing just one run on four hits over eight inning, walking two and striking out eight. John Axford allowed a run in the ninth but still recorded the save in a 3-2 victory to get the Brewers to 23-23.
From there, the Brewers went 15-5 over their next 20 games and took sole possession of first place for the first time on June 12.
Here are the highlights from Marcum's performance:
39 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
It's kind of unfair to put Trade and Non-Tender in the same category.
Those two are so vastly different. Trading Marcum bring in a lot of value in return, as well as freeing up a decent amount of cash to pursue various free agents. Non-Tendering him would be pointless and reactionary.
I'm not sure
that Marcum would bring “a lot of value” in return in a trade. I’d expect other GMs to be pretty skeptical if DM called offering Marcum after one season, especially considering what Melvin paid to acquire him.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
If that's the assumption they're making
I’d expect them to ask for Greinke instead.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I mean, if Melvin is looking to trade one or the other, he should be offering both, anyway.
In my opinion anyway. Unless he feels like a shortstop acquired for Marcum would be more important, which could also be another assumption.
Right. I get that.
I’m just sayin’: I’m a rival GM. I saw what happened to Marcum in September and October. If DM calls me offering Marcum, I’m low-balling him.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
I still don't think that would affect his value very much, if at all.
And I would hope that Melvin is smart enough not to take any low-ball offers.
He wouldnt take a low ball offer
He has historically tended to over value his vets when it comes to trades. And the players listed below, even though probably good trade targets, wouldnt be ones he is considering.
DM:
Wasn't saying it to compare them.
Was saying it in response to “Melvin’s smart enough not to take the low-ball offer.”
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Sure.
I’m just saying Melvin taking the low-ball offer can’t be dismissed out of hand.
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
That's fair, I guess.
Though keep an mind that Hardy was someone he felt he had to get rid of due to no room for him.
Of course.
Though, in that particular case, “had to get rid of” came to mean: “had to trade to the Twins without consulting any other GMs.”
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Or not.
I realize you think you’re infallible, but I hope it’s cool that the rest of us might not agree.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 1, 2011 6:27 PM CDT up reply actions
If youre leaning on the SS for Marcum type of deal
Stephen Drew or Erick Aybar are probably your only choices.
Drew would be selling low, if Aybar a prospect probably has to go along with him.
Agreed
If not for his injury he was headed for a 3 WAR type of season.
He would have been a nice draft pick back in 2004 as well.
DM: Hi Kevin (Towers). Hey Ive got this great pitcher you might like for your rotation next year.
KT: Oh yeah? who?
DM: Shaun Marcum.
KT: Im listening
DM: We have a couple of holes to fill as you well know. I was thinknig of sending Mr Marcum your way in exchange for Stephen Drew…..
KT: [interrupts] That sounds like a great deal.
DM: {surprised that KT needed to interrupt] I was also going to say AND Paul Goldschmidt.
DM: Kevin? Are you there?
DM: Kevin?
DM [yelling out to receptionist] Betty, can you get me Kevin Towers back on the phone, I think his cell phone dropped the call.
Although I dont advocate trading him
His value is probably around that of a top 75 hitting prospect.
He will be relatively cheap, should provide aroudn 3.2 WAR and could maybe even be a FA who nets draft picks if signed.
Unlike in a trade for Greinke though, he probably doesnt net you an mlb ready bat, nor does he free up enough salary space to replace him with an FA.
Signing Marcum to a long term contract would be a mistake of Suppan proportions
It won’t be for lack of performance, unless you consider injury to be a lack of performance. The Brewers will be lucky if he makes it through 2012 without blowing out his elbow.
by cwolf20 on Nov 1, 2011 4:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't expect a lot of people to agree with me on this one
And I was a huge Marcum fan this season and before this season. I just didn’t know how bad his mechanics are until this season.
I think the risk levels are through the roof on a Marcum extension.
Me either
Hard to say “absolutely not” until you know how much of an injury discount he’d take, but giving him a lot of money and multiple years doesn’t seem like a good strategy.
I know you can’t overreact to September and October, but moving forward, you can’t look at him falling apart at the end of this year as no big deal.
Get a ife broseph
I think that signing Marcum to a mid-length deal of say 4 years
or 3 plus an option, would be a good idea.
Considering that they gave up Lawrie to get him, I would not be surprised if the don’t offer something like that in part to show that they got something more than 2 years for the 6 years of what appears likely to be very good hitting numbers that Brett is going to put up for the Blue Jays.
Axford
I’m surprised there’s not more chatter about trading Axford. I admit it’d blow a hole in our back end of the bullpen, but it’s much easier to fill a closer role than a middle of the order hitter. Not to mention Axford loses all value if he reverts to his wildness
by Chuckiehacks83 on Nov 1, 2011 5:05 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Four years of control for a guy who just led the NL in saves probably has some value.
And in a vacuum I’d be cool with getting something for a guy who might get overvalued because of closing experience.
With that said, the bullpen as built right now has too many holes already.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Shrug.
People seemed to think the Padres were going to get a fair amount for Heath Bell, despite the fact that he was older, already arb-eligible and running out of controlled seasons.
JJ Putz was traded after a down year in 2008, and the Mariners got Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Franklin Gutierrez and Endy Chavez for him.
The Nationals got Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps.
The Astros got Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge.
Most of these are poor comps, because the team that dealt a closer was dealing someone who wasn’t as good as Axford was this season and/or had significantly less team control remaining. But in each of these cases teams got something of significant (or projected significant) value for a commodity much less valuable than Axford.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
OK, fair enough.
Though I wonder if Axford still isn’t proven enough for a decent package. He did come out of nowhere to have a great 1.5-2 seasons, I wonder if teams want to see him keep it up before risking giving up anything valuable for him.
It seems like bullpen guys most often get traded mid-year
Teams first try to bullpen without trading prospects, and have a better idea of who can help them and what they need by mid-year.
Get a ife broseph
Also the Brewers are close to their maximum salary wise
So I think trading somebody who is making close to the minimum is much less likely than somebody making say $9 million like Wolf
true
add to that fact that Wolf is a left and had a good ERA this past year and he’d land a good position player or couple of good prospects at AAA level
You shouldn't really be surprised
Axford is cheap and effective. Do you honestly think that he’d fetch a middle of the order hitter? I think he’d most likely get a top prospect or maybe a couple mid-tier ones…. unless you’re talking bundling him up with some other players.
I’d also argue that finding a replacement wouldn’t be that easy. There aren’t many great options internally, and I don’t think finding one in FA makes sense.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Brew Crew Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
FanShots
Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.
Recent FanShots
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
