Friday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while everything must go.
We're 100 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, and I guess that's as good a time as any to look back at 2011. FSWisconsin will air an hour-long recap of the season tonight, and likely dozens of other times over the months to come.
Beyond that, it's a pretty quiet news day. Let's skip ahead to the Prince Fielder notes:
- Nolan Ryan says the Rangers are not interested in Fielder or Albert Pujols, and will stick with Mitch Moreland at first base.
- Three of the twelve major league executives polled by Jayson Stark thought Fielder would end up with the Rangers. No other team received more than two votes.
- At MLB.com, a great debate rages on regarding this winter's better signing. Anthony Castrovince makes the case for Prince Fielder, while Alden Gonzalez argues on behalf of Albert Pujols.
Elsewhere on the free agent market: Jimmy Rollins reportedly has drawn interest from six teams, and Jayson Stark speculates the Brewers could be one of them. He's older than Jose Reyes but also likely to be less expensive.
Meanwhile, we still haven't heard much about the Brewers' plan to rebuild their bullpen. Brandon Berg of Chippewa.com has a look at some internal and external options to fill the gaps created by Francisco Rodriguez, LaTroy Hawkins and Takashi Saito's departure.
This is speculation on top of speculation, but it's vaguely interesting because of the names involved: Gabe Kapler is one of three Jewish former major leaguers involved in an effort to get Israel included in the 2013 World Baseball Classic. There's speculation at the link that Ryan Braun is one of the players who could be a part of the team.
In the minors: Kentrail Davis went 1-for-5, but that single was enough to stretch his hitting streak to 12 games as Peoria lost 9-5 to Salt River yesterday. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes.
We profiled our 13th Brewer yesterday as Chris Narveson became the latest MVBrewer Honorable Mention. Check back later today for #14.
Elsewhere in self-promotion: I answered a few questions last week for MLB Daily Dish, and you can see them here. They were kind enough to call me a "Brewers Expert," which at least beats being called a "blogger."
Around baseball:
Mets: Removed outfielder Jason Pridie from their 40 man roster. He'll be a free agent.
Phillies: Signed pitcher Raul Valdes to a minor league deal.
Pirates: Signed catcher Rod Barajas to a one year, $4 million deal with a club option for 2013.
Twins: Re-signed infielder/outfielder Brian Dinkelman to a minor league deal.
White Sox: Signed pitcher Donnie Veal to a minor league deal.
Today in baseball economics: White Sox GM Kenny Williams told reporters yesterday that he team's 2012 budget is "a little bit less than what we had last year."
This seems like a daily occurrence lately: Yesterday I mentioned that Korean MVP Suk-Min Yoon was likely headed to MLB, and now today three-time Japanese batting champion Norichika Aoki appears poised to join him. Aoki is a center fielder and will be represented by Nez Balelo, who is also Ryan Braun's agent.
Today in former Brewers: The Beer Pen Podcast interviewed Seth McClung this week.
I'm starting to think Bernie Brewer got the best draw in The Outside Corner's MLB Mustache Madness tournament. He won his first round match and now faces minor leaguer Matt Shoemaker.
This seems like a strange move: The Royals are hosting the 2012 All Star Game, and they're citing that as the reason for their decision to cancel this winter's FanFest. That's roughly the equivalent of skipping breakfast this morning because you're having a big lunch on Wednesday.
It's been a pretty rough news week around the world of sports, as this week's top stories have been an abduction and a massive rape scandal. If you're having a hard time cheering up after all of this week's bad news, Larry Granillo of Baseball Prospectus is here for you.
Meanwhile, we're just a few weeks away from baseball's winter meetings in Dallas. Jack Moore of NotGraphs noted that the hotel where the event is taking place is just down the street from Medieval Times, where hilarity will almost certainly ensue.
If you still have time left over after reading this morning's Mug, maybe you should apply for a job. The Book Blog reports the Pirates are in the market for a data architect and a quantitative analyst.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to figure out what I'm wearing to two weddings tomorrow.
Drink up.
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About next year's bullpen (re: the link in the mug)
I jumped in one of Fangraph’s prospects chat thread and asked about Michael Fiers (who for people who don’t know, lead the PCL in ERA with a 1.11 ERA last year) and the scout at fangraphs thought he would struggle as a starter because he didn’t have a lot of great pitches, only one really great pitch and one pretty good one.
However, for that exact same reason he thought that Fiers would thrive as a bullpen guy and be very effective as a late-inning reliever.
So when do we get to the point that he starts getting talked about as potentially being a bullpen piece?
If someone is having this kind of success as a starter in the minors...
Why would the Brewers talk about him as a bullpen piece?
It's because he's a two pitch guy
he throws a 90 mph 4 seamer and an excellent change up. He also throws an average curve and a below average slider on occasion.
If you don’t have at least 3 or 4 quality pitches, you’ll have a really hard time making it through the line up more than once in the majors. Think about how bad Yo or Marcum look when they can’t control their breaking ball and all they throw are fastballs and change ups. They get around the order once and then start getting creamed. In the minors, with less disciplined and less polished hitters you can get away with it a lot more.
You can read John Sickles report on him here. He’s at best a 5th starter if you want to leave him in the rotation, but he could provide better value out of the bullpen in my opinion, and as a bullpen arm he could step in next season to help instead of in 2013 (unless we trade a starter away for salary relief).
Ben Sheets threw a fastball and a curveball and that's pretty much it.
Obviously Fiers isn’t Sheets, but if he’s having this much success starting so far, it’s worth trying him out there until he actually shows he can’t handle it than to preemptively turn him into a bullpen guy.
by Noah Jarosh on Nov 11, 2011 11:11 AM CST up reply actions
Do you really think he'd add that much more value as a #5 than as 'the 8th inning guy'?
Also, Fiers is 27. Its not like we should worry about his team control, because he’ll be in his mid 30s when he hits free agency. I think there’s really no risk to letting him be a bullpen pitcher next year, and if need be converting him back to a starter in the offseason before 2013. It’s maybe one of the best internal options we have at rebuilding the bullpen next year.
Starting pitchers have more value than relievers, yes.
by Noah Jarosh on Nov 11, 2011 11:42 AM CST up reply actions
Do you think that having Fiers as #5 and Estrada in the pen is more valuble than having things the other way around?
Also, there’s no spot for him to pitch in the rotation, he we want to use him next year, as he enters his prime, the only place for him to find work is in the bullpen. Is an age 27 bullpen season on a contending team that needs a good reliever less valuable than an age 34 season as a starter on an unknown team?
There’s precedent for this type of move working out well, moving a good minor league pitcher right into the bullpen. Guys like Venters, Kimbrel and Feliz all started their careers as bullpen guys and have been incredibly valuable for their teams in those roles.
Bullpen guys in MLB have more value than SPs in Nashville
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 11, 2011 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Rollins over Reyes?
Thinking at this point that seeing what options they have with trying to sign Rollins may be better. ESPN projections have him getting a 3year, 13M/per deal, as opposed to the undoable numbers Reyes will likely require (they had Reyes at 6/18Mper). While older, it would give Melvin and co. time to find a replacement through the draft or other trades for a prospect and still get production out of the spot in the longterm. wonder if Alex Gonzalez isn’t more likely though. Any would be an improvement, hope the CBA gets done soon so things can get moving…
I heard Rollins is trying to get a 6 year deal...
it doesn’t mean he’ll get it, but if his asking price is way too high, I doubt Melvin stays at the table too long.
I’d take rollins at 3/35 (essentially Wolf’s deal) but I think he signs for more than that given the shortage of shortstops in the league.
If Jose Reyes really is close to a deal
Then Rollins would be well served to sit back for a while and see if desperation develops once he’s off the market.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 11, 2011 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Reyes is close?
where at? hadn’t heard he was close to signing anywhere yet…
also, i’m not sure if anyone outside of Jeter/NYY would do a deal for a SS to play until he’s 39. maybe 3 is the ideal of Rollins and he gets a 4th year out of someone and/or a games-played trigger for an extra year. just don’t see any teams wanting to give a pivotal position to a guy for his mid-to-late 30s…
No thanks
I want no part of Rollins unless its at a nice discount like 3/30. He is injury prone and over the hill. Of course he is far better than Yuni but he is not worth 15 mil per year. Just sign a decent player like Barmes for 2 years who will play good defense and OBP around .330 or so.
by bklynbrewcrew on Nov 11, 2011 12:15 PM CST up reply actions
There are rumors Reyes is close to a deal with the Marlins.
by Noah Jarosh on Nov 11, 2011 12:17 PM CST up reply actions
I thought he only visited the Marlins
Marlins met with buehrle, reyes, and pujols, and that CF prospect this week, so i wouldn’t think they’re in the midst of deep negotiations with any of them just yet…
.
Further, reporter Jorge Sedano of 790-AM The Ticket says a source tells him that Reyes and Marlins are “almost a done deal.”
Get a ife broseph
I wonder what the chance is that Pujols signs with the Marlins
Because that works well for the Brewers in two ways.
1 – The Cards are obviously alot worse team without Pujols ( Although if Berkman re-signs with them he would be a decent replacement at 1B for a couple of years) and
2 – The Marlins would then have a surplus at 1st base and the Brewers would have a chance of getting Sanchez as a replacement for Fielder.
I forgot about that
So the Cards have a plan B for 1st base if Pujols takes his talents to South Beach…
Well Doc Godden chimes in....
@DocGooden16 Count Milwaukee out Reyes would take less to go else where
Get a ife broseph
good to know his thoughts, lol.
He must really not like Milwaukee to post that (or if he actually knows anything, Reyes must really not like MKE)
I don't really like Milwaukee
and I’ve lived in Wisconsin my whole life. Would anyone really blame him?
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 11, 2011 1:48 PM CST up reply actions
I don't blame him (or anyone) for liking or disliking a city
But I’d guess his experience in Milwaukee is 3 nights a year at the Pfister and a bus to and from the stadium.
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 11, 2011 1:50 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I've never been to New York
but imagine living in that city for the past 6 years and then moving to Milwaukee.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 11, 2011 2:01 PM CST up reply actions
That would be enough to know it's not Miami.
I know that Miami wasn’t specifically mentioned, but if I was young, rich, and Dominican it would take more to make me sign anywhere else.
by The Left Button on Nov 11, 2011 4:03 PM CST up reply actions
sounds like Papelbon is going to Phily hah
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 1:33 PM CST reply actions
I wonder how much of that is just posturing so the Phils can get some leverage in the Madison negotions
being reported through multiple fronts now, 4/50M
maybe they figured if they’re gonna spend that much money, might as well get a more proven/established closer than Madsen…
Amaro had this to say about the rumors of a 4/44 contract to Madison today:
the rumors that are out there (of a deal) are unequivocally false
I was just about to say that I was wrong about it being posturing
thats pretty unbelievable that they signed him for 4 years and 50 million.
You would think after Brad Lidge they would of learned their lesson
Somewhat ironic that the team that lead the majors in complete games by their starting pitchers is going to spend so much a guy to pitch the 9th inning
lol
jaysonst Jayson Stark
Now hearing Papelbon’s deal with Phillies will include a vesting option. If exercised, would make total package worth more than $60 million.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
Looks like the market on Jamey Carroll is moving pretty quickly
or at least that’s what we’re supposed to think since no one is really sure who’s close
Twins and Carroll close on 2 year deal.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 2:48 PM CST up reply actions
2 years, 7 million dollars
waaaaay too much for a 37 year old short stop. He’ll be 40 by the time that contract ends! Yuck. This doesn’t set a good tone for the shortstop market.
I just want the Brewers to sign Clint Barmes.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 2:03 PM CST reply actions
I've read he's had a lot of interest from a lot of clubs
I’d rather overpay for someone else than Barmes. Barmes was attractive because he was a value pick up, but if we over pay for him, what’s the point?
by Fiesta on Nov 11, 2011 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
ugh didn't know that, that's not good
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
No, but you could get a different shortstop that doesn't carry the name-brand that Barmes does
someone like Jack Wilson. Last year they were pretty different in terms of WAR, but if you exclude last year they’ve been remarkably similar. If you could get Wilson for 4-5 million less than Barmes, would you? Say 2 years and 7 million vs 3 years and 16 million?
Maybe I should write up a fanpost, because I’m pretty convinced that Jack Wilson would be a better value at shortstop than Barmes if he cost a little less.
I guess that’s not overpaying. My point is: Barmes isn’t worth overpaying for.
i think gonzalez would be a good fit for the brewers
not help offensively, but more reliable on defense and could save $ for options at 3B or 1B if needed..
looks like Pap is signing a 5 yr 63 mill contract with Philly hahahaha
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 11, 2011 3:23 PM CST reply actions
Gonzalez and Wilson
are just so awful offensively that it wipes out most of their defensive value. We need a good defensive shortstop that can have an OBP of .330 or so. Barmes is capable of that while Wilson and Gonzalez will have OBP below .300. Barmes for 2 yrs 10 mil is a good deal while the other two are Yuni like at the plate.
Isnt amazing how a .300 OBP guy with plus defense is still a big upgrade over Yuni?
Streak Breakers.com
I don't think I'd call Alex Gonzalez plus defense.
But he still managed 1.1 WAR last year, which is .5 more than Yuni.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 12, 2011 12:22 PM CST up reply actions










































