Monday's Frosty Mug
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 21, 2011 10:54 AM CST
in Milwaukee Brewers News
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PrintSome things to read while making a minor edit.
The Brewers filed some more offseason paperwork over the weekend, adding four players to the 40 man roster to protect them from next month's Rule 5 draft (FanShot):
- Outfielder Caleb Gindl, who hit .307/.390/.472 as a 23 year old in AAA in 2011.
- First baseman/outfielder Brock Kjeldgaard, a converted pitcher who tied Brevard County's single-season home run record in 2011 despite playing just 65 games there before moving up to Huntsville.
- Reliever Santo Manzanillo, who posted a 1.75 ERA over 48 outings between Brevard County and Huntsville in 2011.
- Infielder Zelous Wheeler, who hit .272/.378/.459 while playing primarily third base for Huntsville and Nashville in 2011.
As Adam McCalvy notes in the link above, the Brewers still have five open spots on their 40 man roster but opted not to protect LHP Dan Meadows. He's just 24 and posted a 2.68 ERA over 41 outings between Huntsville and Nashville in 2011.
With that said, the Rule 5 draft is a total crap shoot and is very difficult to predict. Last year I compiled this list of 60 players I'd seen listed as draft candidates elsewhere. Of the 19 players selected, only six were on that list. Rany Jazayerli, who covers the Royals, summed things up nicely:
Shocked KC didn't protect Rey Navarro. In their defense, every year there's a guy I can't believe they didn't protect. None have been taken.
Meanwhile, the Brewers might be running out of time to make a splash on the shortstop market. The Pirates agreed to a two year, $10.5 million deal with Clint Barmes over the weekend, removing one more possibility from the market (FanShot). Barmes said the Brewers made him a two year offer, but he chose the Pirates instead. Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar has a look at the team's options now. Eric Seidman of FanGraphs says Jason Bartlett of the Padres could be an option. Tom Haudricourt is fearing the worst, and Mark Townsend of Big League Stew notes that the market is drying up.
This is how you know it was a slow news weekend: Even the Prince Fielder notes are quiet. Flip Flop Fly Ball did cobble together a nice collection of Fielder's "y'know's," though. (h/t @AdamMcCalvy)
It remains to be seen how or if this will change next season without Fielder hitting behind him, but this number is still pretty interesting: Brewers in 11 notes that Ryan Braun is averaging 199.6 hits per 162 games played in his career, the highest rate in Brewer franchise history. Braun picks up roughly 1.23 hits per game, and is one of just 31 players in baseball history to collect over 500 hits while doing so.
The NL MVP award will be announced tomorrow, and the JS has a preview of the proceedings featuring Braun and Fielder. I'm still hopeful Braun will take home the honor, but I expect Matt Kemp to get it.
In the minors:
- Baseball America's writeup for their top ten Brewer prospect list is online. It also includes a list of the best tools within the organization and a potential 2015 lineup that has "Yovanni" Gallardo at the top of the rotation.
- Two notable Brewer prospects had big days in Venezuela yesterday: Caleb Gindl went 3-for-5 with a double and Michael Fiers allowed one run over five innings in Caracas' 6-1 win over Zulia. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes.
- Carlos Gomez made his winter league debut over the weekend, appearing in four games for Aguilas in the Dominican Republic. He's off to a 1-for-17 start.
- Back in Arizona, no Brewers were included on the AFL's all-prospect team.
On Friday we continued our player-by-player look at the 2011 Brewers with this profile of George Kottaras. Check back for another profile later today.
Around baseball:
Giants: Designated outfielder Darren Ford and pitcher Waldis Joaquin for assignment.
Indians: Designated infielder Luis Valbuena for assignment.
Nationals: Claimed pitcher Cole Kimball off waivers from the Blue Jays.
Orioles: Signed infielder Matt Antonelli to a minor league deal.
Phillies: Acquired IF/OF Ty Wigginton from the Rockies for a PTBNL or cash.
Pirates: Claimed pitcher Jeremy Hefner and catcher Brian Jeroloman off waivers from the Padres and Blue Jays, respectively, and designated outfielder Xavier Paul and catcher Eric Fryer for assignment. (h/t Bucs Dugout)
Twins: Signed catcher Ryan Doumit to a one year, $3 million deal and pitcher Jason Bulger to a minor league deal.
The Blue Jays had claimed Kimball off waivers from the Nationals one day earlier, then attempted to outright him to AAA. That opened the door for the Nats to step in and take him back.
On Friday I mentioned that a new collective bargaining agreement was pending, and was expected to be announced today. That announcement has been bumped back to tomorrow, but Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball has a look at some of the changes involved:
- The minimum salary in 2011 will go up to $480,000, and is expected to climb to $500,000 before the deal expires.
- A few more players (roughly five each season) will qualify for arbitration under the Super 2 rules.
- Blood testing for human growth hormone will begin.
We've heard this mumbled and/or alluded to several times now, but this might be the closest it's ever come to being publicly said: Dan Le Batard wrote over the weekend that the Marlins, "like a lot of teams," believe Albert Pujols is older than he claims to be. This conversation could become a factor in his new deal.
A quiet weekend might have given Dale Sveum some time to settle into his new office in Chicago. Here are some notes on him from the weekend:
- Adam McCalvy has congratulatory notes from several Brewers for Sveum. John Axford also chimed in.
- Sveum had some nice things to say about Prince Fielder's work ethic.
- Tom Haudricourt notes that Sveum is the best man at Brewer clubhouse attendant Matt Smith's wedding.
Venezuela has been the focus of a lot of negative attention this winter, and we might be seeing the first blowback from it: The Angels have asked infielder Maicer Izturis, who is rehabbing an ankle injury, not to play for La Guaira this winter. On top of being potentially unsafe, the Google satellite view makes the ballpark look like a dump.
Elsewhere in Venezuela, Carlos Zambano required 16 stitches after taking a line drive off his face during his last start. He's apparently not going to miss any time.
We close today with incredibly sad news: Mariners outfielder Greg Halman was stabbed to death early this morning in the Netherlands. He was just 24 years old, and his younger brother has been arrested in relation to the crime. Our condolences go out to his family and former teammates.
Drink up.
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Ticket related:
9-packs have become 10 packs for 2012. Instead of getting a 10th game free, you now get an 11th game free. That’s an interesting way of assuring that more tickets are sold…
From McCalvy's blog
The Brewers would have also offered the opportunity to man shortstop, and Barmes says they appeared willing to offer a two-year deal but wanted time to see how the Prince Fielder situation would play out before making a move at shortstop.
So. Much. Facepalm. Not because I wanted the Brewers to overpay for Barmes, but because, dude, Prince Fielder is not walking through that door, Doug. Go build a team without him. You’re burning daylight.
My assumption
is that this was a nicer way to turn Barmes down than telling him, “you’re not worth that contract they just offered you.”
by placidity on Nov 21, 2011 11:32 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
That was my thought, too.
They were going to offer $8 million / 2 years and that would just serve to insult him, his agent and the Pirates DM so they graciously bowed out of the negotiations.
by ecocd on Nov 21, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The Baseball America article
actually makes the Brewers farm system seem pretty solid instead of the bare-bones cupboard we’ve been hearing that it is. Nice to see so many pitchers on that top ten list. Hope some of them pan out. Well, hope all of them pan out nicely, but know how that goes. Hope Green and Gamel pan out this year. Would be nice to only have to worry about securing a decent SS for all position players on the team to be set for a few years.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Nov 21, 2011 11:25 AM CST reply actions
It has definitely improved over last year
But it is still probably a system in the bottom 10 in the game. The lack of a true impact level bat or arm will keep it from being labeled “solid”. Definitely depth now among the arms compared with previous seasons.
No
But top 100 type player in the minor leagues, or projected major league average player sounds about right to me.
Peralta is the closest to the major leagues and will probably be on the BA top 100 this year, but he profiles as a middle of the rotation type of player. And then the two big arms they picked up in this years draft have their questions coming in, and also profile as middle rotation types.
Is there someone in the system you would categorize as impact level?
I think Peralta has impact level possibilities
Hard to say exactly where he profiles right now, took a big leap from his age 21 to age 22 seasons. I could see him falling back some to a middle/bottom of the rotation type guy, or continuing his progression to a #2 / top of the rotation type.
Jungmann/Bradley aren’t going to be judged as “impact” guys right now, nor should they be, but they have potential to move up and change people’s impressions of them.
Get a ife broseph
Fair enough
I think as Super mentions above, there are 3 guys with impact potential, but at this time its a bit uncertain.
How Peralta fairs in AAA this year will be huge. One big issue on him will be that he doesnt strike out a ton of guys our of have overpowering stuff, nor do Jungmann or Bradley. So that will be a thing that will keep some from labeling them impact or not.
A look at last year’s top 100 list (particularly the 75-100 range where Peralta could fall) among the pitchers most of the guys are flamethrowers who throw upper 90s with plus plus stuff.
Actually Peralta's K-rate has gone up since last year
In 2010 his k/9 was around 5, I believe. But this past year it jumped to 8.8 in AA. He’s missing a fair amount of bats. Also, he might not dial it up to 104mph, but his fastball is around 92-95mph and can top out at 97 or 98. That’s pretty good imo. Not quite Nolan Ryan-like, but seems pretty above-average.
Go ahead, make my day.
by ilikeburritos on Nov 21, 2011 1:11 PM CST up reply actions
The perception though is that he is a sinkerballer/groundball pitcher
And lacks command/consistency in his offerings. The secondary stuff is the reason he is often thought of as a mid level rotation type of guy because he has problems throwing strikes with it and again, lacks consistency.
Could he be impact? Maybe, but he needs to make a big leap this season at AAA with his change up and slider to be considered that.
Well most of the perception was based on pre-2011
Like I mentioned earlier, he sort of did take the big “leap” last year and saw increased velocity and K rate. Now its a matter of if he can maintain that going forward.
Get a ife broseph
Pick one; Cedeno, Gonzalez or Furcal. Who would you take (assuming they are all worth about the same)?
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Nov 21, 2011 11:38 AM CST reply actions
Gonzalez
Assuming he’s cheap, they’d be buying low with some decent upside. Supposedly a good clubhouse guy too.
Assuming Cedeno’s glove is closer to his career -1.6 UZR/150 and not his 2011 6.8 UZR/150, he’s barely an upgrade over Yuni.
Get a ife broseph
Furcal, as much as he is tained by the stench of St. Louis
He’s the second best SS available if healthy, and could be a steal at $14 million/2 years or so (ESPN randomly projected that for him earlier today).
Problem with an injury-prone SS is that suddenly Edwin Maysonet is flying to Milwaukee. But I guess anybody is an injury risk, except Yuniesky “Like a Rock” Betancourt, unfortunately.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
Either of the first two would be an improvement over Yuni, and both of them are also likely to be healthier than Furcal.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Reply fail.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 21, 2011 11:43 AM CST up reply actions
If Gennett didn't get a mention in the all-prospect team
why bother having the voting take place after the league wraps, anyway? Just vote on it before they get there or don’t bother awarding them at all.
Well, Joe Panik had a really good AFL too.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 21, 2011 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
Not only that
But Panik is believed to be a sure thing major leaguer, He could even be the starter by 2013 for the Giants at 2B.
I find myself unreasonably sad about the Greg Halman story
I didn’t follow him at all as a baseball player, but its just making me feel really sad.
Condolences to his family.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 21, 2011 12:27 PM CST reply actions
I was shocked as well about this story
A family member met him a few years ago while doing some baseball coaching in Europe. Sad thing for anyone to have happen to them, but he was nice guy who always had a big smile on his face. Just unimaginable.
Heh, Keith Law on Barmes
I wouldn’t want to give him a spot on the 40-man roster, let alone guarantee him over $10 million for two seasons of outs.
Get a ife broseph
Keith Law, once again displaying his insightful and not-at-all-needlessly-contrarian baseball knowledge
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Nov 21, 2011 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd
That man defines “needlessly contrarian.”
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Looking at the voting there are 3 surprised for me
1 – Even though a pitcher in Verlander was the MVP and 6 people gave Shields a vote yet CC Sabathia only got 2 6th place votes
2 – Somebody voted for David Robertson
3 – Somebody did not vote for Verlander at all
Michael Young 1st place vote FTW
Get a ife broseph
by Supertramp on Nov 21, 2011 1:23 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Probably the same person who put Bautista 9th.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
I was close.
The Michael Young first-place vote came from a Dallas Morning News shameless panderer baseball columnist who put Bautista 7th.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 2:22 PM CST up reply actions
QuesTec for BBWAA writers?
I think there actually is a way that a guy can lose his priveledge as a voter, but highly unlikely.
by backtocali on Nov 21, 2011 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
There'd have to be evidence that he wasn't taking his duties seriously
And considering that the guy he put first appeared on all but five of his colleagues’ ballots and got second-, third-, fourth-, and fifth-place votes, his vote won’t even be seen as odd by many of the BBWAA members. Sad.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
would it zap them, too?
(like, a little zap, and it wouldn’t hurt much. But it would be bothersome).
by Jess'HittheBall on Nov 21, 2011 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
CC Sabathia: 7.1 fWAR
Justin Verlander: 7.0 fWAR
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
Only stat where Yuni is above average for a SS.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Nov 21, 2011 5:10 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I actually have no real problem with Verlander winning
Wouldn’t have voted for him myself, but you could make a pretty solid case for him, Ellsbury, or Bautista.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 1:53 PM CST up reply actions
Ellsbury's case
was hurt by Boston’s epic collapse, and Bautista’s by Toronto’s never being in contention in the first place.
"Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that."
Wow a pitcher for MVP?
When was the last time that happened? Bob Gibson?
Go ahead, make my day.
by ilikeburritos on Nov 21, 2011 4:06 PM CST up reply actions
Reds shopping Alonso
His name has come up apparently in talks with the A’s for closer Andrew Bailey. Alonso is too much to give up for a closer, but they are looking for starters as well.
I would hope DM would at least explore Alonso for Marcum. The extra salary available couple with Alonso’s production vs what is expected of Marcum would make it a good move.
They could go out and look at a guy like Bruce Chen or Edwin Jackson as replacements in the rotation, your 1B question is cleared up cheaply for 3 plus years…..
by backtocali on Nov 21, 2011 1:12 PM CST reply actions 3 recs
Great Idea
I agree with you that we should be shopping Marcum for a young bat like Alonso but we both know that Melvin doesnt operate that way. Marcum is a Melvin prototype, pitchability guy with no velocity. I expect Melvin to give Marcum a long term deal which will most likely be a disaster but we really should trade him for a power bat since our system has none.
by bklynbrewcrew on Nov 21, 2011 1:27 PM CST up reply actions
It doesnt matter
Because Marcum’s production gets replaced with Yonder Alonso at 1B. There are a multitude of FA pitchers who could be signed cheaply on a one year deal that would not only improve the team overall with an Alonso acquisition, but wouldnt be such a huge downgrade over Marcum.
Can you name a couple 1 year deal pitchers available?
League average ERA was a little less than 4, so would be looking for about a 3.95 ERA pitcher who can give them 200 IP, on a 1 year deal for $6m or less.
The drop-off between Marcum and replacement pitcher is likely much bigger than the drop-off between Alonso and Gamel.
Get a ife broseph
If Marco Estrada's 1.2 WHIP were a true indicator
And he had the stamina for 200 IP, he’d be a replacement. I don’t think we could afford a FA pitching replacement at less cost than we could a FA power hitting 1B though.
I'll give you a few
Jeff Francis, Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, Bruce Chen…..
Maybe not one year deal types, but definitely short term contracts at less than $7 million a year guaranteed.
Alonso is a big upgrade over Gamel, imo. And Marcum (or Grienke) are the only type of pitchers on hand that can be dealt to free up salary money, while also getting something of value in return.
Marcum is gone after 2012, and if he isnt the Brewers will be worse of because of it. Why not deal him for a piece that is needed long term.
If you can get 3 wins with one player for one year at $5 million, you should be thrilled to get those same 3 wins from two players for the same amount. And the beauty of that is that if Alonso pans out as expected his value only increases in following years. Something that even if Marcum sticks around, expensively, doesnt happen.
We don't know that Alonso is a big upgrade over Gamel
And we may never know if he keeps getting pushed to the side.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Nov 21, 2011 3:10 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I think its pretty certain
That Alonso is better than Gamel.
I’m not down on Gamel at all, but he has shown an unwillingness to be coached and to instill a certain work ethic that comes along with being a top prospect. And even at his peak prospect value, wasnt in the same class that Alonso is or was.
Gamel doesnt really have much of a future with this organization, especially with statements made by his former manager, the GM, and scouting reports. I think its a shame that his talent was wasted or mismanaged while he was here, and I would hope he can somewhere somehow regain part of what was lost of his career, but it probably isnt in Milwaukee.
Nope, those examples don't work
Francis – 4.82, 5.00 and 5.01 ERAs his last 3 healthy years (missed one)
Penny- 5.30 ERA last year, only 55 IP in 2010, 4.88 ERA in 2009
Chen- Maybe your closest one – 3.77 last year, 4.17 in 2010, 5.78 in 2009. 35 years old.
Colon- 39 years old next year. Pass.
Marcum is a huge upgrade over any of those guys. Unless they have a guy who can step in for him, I’m pretty skeptical of trading him.
Get a ife broseph
You're using ERA to make your case?
We’re looking at a one to two year player, cheap, who can be in the starting rotation to replace Marcum if he could be dealt one for one for Alonso.
I’d say you can count on Marcum for a 3 WAR season, at $5 million. Alonso I would estimate at 2 WAR which means you only need to find another win in your Colon, Francis, Chen or Penny type pitcher. Even if that pitcher costs a shade more per year than Marcum does its a win deal for the Brewers because you get a good player in Alonso for 6 years.
I’m not completely convinced, either, that Marcum has all that much durability in him, add in the mechanical issue that prompted his TJ surgery in ‘09 still existing, he put up about 176 innings until he broke down, add another year onto his arm, and you’re not really looking at a tremendous pitcher, only average. Moving him for a big bat first baseman would be a good move imo.
Yes, give me names of guys who have put up results like Marcum
Who can be gotten on a one year deal.
I’m not convinced Yonder Alonso is a big bat first baseman like you are. I don’t think many in baseball are really either, there’s a reason the only trade talk has been with the A’s for their oft-injured Relief Pitcher.
Get a ife broseph
Trade will most likely never happen
But I do not see what there isnt to love about the guy. He’s been a top 100 prospect 3 years running, has OPS’ed over .800 all three of the past years to go along with very nice ISO numbers, and has essentially been blocked the past two years by an MVP caliber player. Add to it that in about 100 PA this past season he blew the cover off the ball, and is slated to be the starting LF on a high powered offensive team.
I think one reason there may not have been a lot of talk involving the guys is that the Reds this season, as you even believe, are more in a rebuild mode, and dont want to put this guy on the market for fear of losing him for some short term gain.
If the Reds are in rebuild mode, they put Votto up and play Alonso
2 more years left, including $17m salary in 2013.
Read some scouting reports on Yonder from last year, “second division 1B” thrown around way, way too much. And he can’t play LF at all, train wreck out there.
Get a ife broseph
The most recent BA scouting report on him reads
Alonso is an above-average hitter with a good sense of the strike zone and the ability to hit to all fields. Cincinnati always has believed that he has plus power, which he showed in his limited big league trial in the second half of 2011. While hitting comes easy for Alonso, defense has been an issue.
So I would say that if he is your first baseman, you get a Prince Fielder type player with maybe not as much power, but still a good bat.
Whoa, a Prince Fielder comp?
Less power, and less OBP (Prince 4th in MLB with .415 last eyar), but Ok.
Agree to disagree on Alonso I guess. I think he’s fine, just not an impact guy.
Get a ife broseph
I thought the days of Doug Davis and David Bush were over
I should have known it wouldn’t last. Maybe I’m overvaluing pitching, but I consider bad pitching and bad fielding to be underestimated in their ability to sink a team. A quality offensive player can add a couple opportunities every game, but a bad defender or pitcher can lose an entire game alone, and quickly. I’m probably talking from the gut and the numbers show otherwise though.
I definitely am saying "when" he gets hurt
It may take another couple years, but there’s no way you can throw 200 innings a year with those mechanics and not blow out your elbow eventually.
Marcum
is not worth keeping on a long term contract so we should trade him now and get some value for him. We cant keep trading prospects for short term pitching answers as a small market team. Now that we are losing Fielder we need to think past the upcoming season so we can contend for years to come.
I am sorry but we should not give a long term contract to a finesse pitcher with bad mechanics who is a good bet to break down in the future. If we could get a guy like Alonso with six years of control for a guy like Marcum we should jump at it. I dont see any way the Reds make a trade like that but this is exactly the type of deal that a Milwaukee needs to make in our small market where we need good and cheap talent since we cant pay everyone millions.
by bklynbrewcrew on Nov 21, 2011 2:28 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Remind me again
Why can’t we just start JHJ full time at SS?
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
Aside from the fact that the organization seems unwilling to do it, there really isn't a reason.
But the organization seems unwilling to do it.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
His age might be one reason
And apart from that, as a starting SS for 140 games or so, he probably isnt much of an upgrade over Betancourt.
Yeah age is legit I guess
But just as bad as Yuni? He was worth .7 WAR more in just over half the PA.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
If he can repeat what he has done the last two years
He is an upgrade. But both last season and ’10 were as super utility types. I wouldnt bank on him being able to maintain that with another year under his belt, and a full time assignment.
My guess is that it's because Hairston has never had much playing time at SS
In his 14 MLB seasons, he has played 1235 games (9086.2 innings) in the field… of that he’s only played 146 games (1032.1 innings) at SS.
His career UZR/150 at SS is 2.3… while not great, he’d probably be better than Yuni.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Isn't 2.3 reasonably good?
Or is this the UZR sample size issue again
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
I think 2.3 is considered slightly above average
but there’s definitely a sample size issue.
He’s only had three MLB seasons (2008-2010) where he started more than 25 games at SS… and never started more than 53 games at SS in any of those seasons.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
*Insert rant about how 1 whole season should be a large enough sample to at least form some conclusion using any meaningful statistic*
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
143 games
But I guess that includes games where he only came in as a defensive replacement, so it’s not really a whole season.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
After a year with Yuni's stupefying awfulness
Average becomes insanely good.
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 21, 2011 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
Random insignificant thing that's bugging me today
On the right bar, there’s the standings for the NL Central. It bugs me that they aren’t rounded properly. Take the Brewers winning percentage, for example. It should be .593 instead of .592. The full winning percentage is .592592592592…, which rounded, would be .593.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
If you're going to be bothered by inaccuracies on the sidebar,
Then I’d strongly encourage you not to look at the roster on the left.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I don't know what the correct roster would be right now.
So I can ignore it easily. However, I’m a math freak, so those inaccuracies stand out more.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
To summarize in this situation
Ignorance is bliss.
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
Should I avoid looking at the spinning top as well?
Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector
You should put Geoff Jenkins on there somewhere, just to confuse people.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
Two Insane points of the new CBA:
Un freaking believable that Selig would have signed off on this deal….
Teams signing the remaining Type A relievers will not surrender a draft pick this offseason. Those seven teams will still receive compensatory picks, though I assume they must offer arbitration on Wednesday first.
Starting next season, the Elias rankings system for free agent compensation will be eliminated. According to the AP, “Starting next year, teams will have to make a ‘qualifying offer’ of a one-year guaranteed contract to their players eligible to become free agents in order to receive compensation if the player signs with another club. That amount will be at least $12.4 million and could rise by next year, depending on a formula.”
by backtocali on Nov 21, 2011 3:43 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Are you saying that in order to receive a compensatory pick you must offer your free agents a $12.4MM guaranteed contract no matter what they are actually worth?
How many free agents would of recieved a qualifying offer this year?
The only ones I can think of are:
Fielder,Pujols,Reyes,Rollins,A.Rameriz,CJ Wilson,Sabathia plus maybe Papelbon and Buehrle.
I don't know much about anything
but the idea of having to offer a contract makes some sense to me. It certainly seems less arbitrary than type A or type B free agents, and it reduces the chance that signing relievers results in having to give up picks.
Also, by making it guaranteed, it eliminates the option of trying to game the system by offering arbitration to get your pick and then if they accept and you didn’t want them to, releasing them and only being on the hook for a small piece of the arbitration award.
Id have to look it up
But that would probably eliminate about half of the type A Free Agents then.
The arbitration system as a rule allows for “non gaming” in the first place. An arbitrary $12.4 million one year guaranteed contract does nothing but help large market clubs. In the case for Prince Fielder, he is going to be offered arbitration, and he will most likely decline because he believes his free market value is more than what his arb award will be.
But a $12.4 million 4th arb year award would only really be hurtful to all star type players who it doesnt really affect.
Right, its just making Type A harder to get
And attempting to set Type A status by market value, not an arbitrary set of outdated statistics.
Get a ife broseph
This is one of the few changes in the new CBA that I actually like.
The current system rewards teams for having a player who signs somewhere else. The player has to meet a certain criteria, but it’s too low – Takashi Saito, for example, could have been worth two compensation pick. Those picks might have more surplus value than he does at this point.
Now, teams are being compensated for losing a top-flight player. If you offer someone $12+ million per year and they turn it down, then they’re probably worth being compensated for.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
by Kyle Lobner on Nov 21, 2011 4:06 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
This is a good point
But my whole problem with this new CBA and the issues raised here, is that the old system worked, and it benefitted the teams most in need of help.
But it encouraged teams to game the system, too.
Take a look at the Padres and Heath Bell, for example. Without the compensation system, their best move would have been to trade him. Instead, they held him just to get compensation picks for him. A lot of that should end now.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
Why is that a good thing?
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 21, 2011 10:16 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure if "game the system" is a good way to describe what happened with Bell and the Padres...
Its just a difference in philsophy that was maximized by them holding on to Bell instead of trading him.
At the trading deadline, he was still owed $2.5 million until seasons end, and you could have forecast that he would put up 0.2 WAR, so in essence he was being overpaid. Even if you throw in draft compensation as part of a trade, they maybe get a mid level hitting prospect in return for him.
But the Padres have a long term plan in place to build from the bottom up, and they decided to wait out the draft pick they would have received when Bell leaves as an FA, because they probably felt more comfortable with picking their own guy in the 30-52 range of the first round of the draft.
But the new system forces a team like the Padres, or Brewers, or any small or mid market team to think more short term, waste money most likely, and get screwed in the end. Just like a minimum payroll would do. Spending money does not equate to winning baseball, but this new CBA assumes that that is the case.
Holding on for draft picks instead of a trade, when the team sucks...
Suggest the Padres don’t have a long term plan.
Couple that with letting their GM and Scouting Director go for no compensation and handing over the keys to Moorad, who signs Mark Kotsay to a $1.25m deal as his first transaction? YIKES.
Get a ife broseph
This is what I was trying to say but couldn't.
Maybe $12.4M isn’t the perfect number (as good as any I guess), but it seems like a good system.
I think that the idea is right but I think that the amount involved $12.4 million is too high
There is accroding to Cots about 50 players who earned that amount last season.
I don’t think that an “A” level free agent should just be one of the top 50 players in the league. Probably closer to one of the top 100. I don’t know what level of salary that would need to be but I would think somewhere closer to $10million.
Right, but how many players are going to accept 1/$12.4mm offers?
If they’re good enough to be worth that, they’re probably also good enough to get 2-3 years and $20-30mm on the market, minimum.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
True but just how many Free agent players this post-season would turn down the offer?
I think that it would be less than 20.
Before there was about 30 “A” Free Agents plus about the same number of “B” free agents. It was one way to help keep the competitive balance. If you cannot afford to keep a player atleast you got more chances of getting the next star player to help you.
As I already said I think that the idea is good but if it ends up in alot fewer extra draft picks especially for the lower payroll teams then is its not such a great idea. I just think that the amount that they have decided on is too high.
"Cannot afford" is the key word there.
If you’re losing a FA that’s making, let’s say, $5 million in 2012, then you’re not losing them because you can’t afford them. You’re losing them because you decided not to sign them. Every team in baseball has enough payroll flexibility to sign one guy like that.
So now teams are being compensated for guys they can’t afford, instead of just guys they don’t want to sign.
Now that's great tasting chicken!
I lied. I'll keep posting.
I (still) agree with you Kyle. The bar was too low before. Losing guys like Kelly Johnson, Ramon Hernandez, and Octavio Dotel without receiving compensation in return does not cripple a franchise.
Also, just for reference, by my count there are 22 type As this year, 8 being relievers.
I see what you are saying
and apart from me thinking that the level is too high I agree with what you that this system is an improvement on the last.
I also agree with what mnbrewer has said below and that the changes should not be taking place until next season rather than after this free-agency period has started.
I just don't agree with that at all.
Having the money to do a thing is not the same thing as being able to afford to do it. I could empty my accounts tomorrow and go out and buy a bunch of stuff I’d like to have, all of which would be insanely stupid for me to buy. Hell, the Brewers can “afford” Prince Fielder at 25 million per if your definition is merely can they cover the check.
We won’t know for sure until people actually get a look at the CBA itself, but from all appearances this is a bad thing for mid and small market teams.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 21, 2011 10:24 PM CST up reply actions
Its a pretty good thing for small markets IMO
The big market teams like the Red Sox were able to buy lots of Type A FAs, spending $5m for a RP that small markets would never do, stuff like that. They won’t be able to do that anymore.
It helps teams like the Brewers who have a Prince type franchise player who is going to command $20m+ that they don’t have a shot at.
Get a ife broseph
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't think this change accomplishes either of those things.
The Red Sox can still go out and guy up as many free agents for 5 million as they want; now they just won’t have to give up any compensation for it. And under the current system teams like the Brewers get compensation for losing players like Fielder anyway.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 22, 2011 6:44 AM CST up reply actions
Gotcha
Now the Red Sox won’t be able to get compensated with first round draft picks for losing those types of players, that was my main point.
Its interesting, I like it because I think there are probably about 5 or 6 guys who should be Type A, not 22. It would make sense to have teams give up a pick if they do sign a top FA.
Get a ife broseph
That's ignoring multi-year deals though.
If a guy was offered one year at $12.4M from his old team or 4 years at $10M from a new team, he’s probably going to take the 4 year deal and the old team would get compensation.
That's fine
If a guy can get a 4 year- $40m deal, he’s probably pretty damn good and it would suck to lose him.
Get a ife broseph
I think the bottom line, though
is that all these changes should go into effect next year. They shouldn’t be able to change the rules right in the middle of the game. At least give teams a chance to change their strategy.
"Our attitude is we look at ourselves and we grade ourselves. And even if we don’t like what’s happening on the other side, we don’t make a — it’s not our business" - Tony Larussa
by mnbrewer on Nov 21, 2011 4:45 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The Elias rating systems were an absolute joke used how they were
This is a great, great move. It rewards teams that lose a franchise changer and doesn’t reward teams who lose an average player or relief pitchers.
Get a ife broseph
Hooray!
Teams with limited payrolls have less chance at getting compensation for free agents!
Wait, what?
So because teams occasionally got screwed in the old system, I’m supposed to be happy about the adoption of a new system that, once again, makes it easier for the teams with the most payroll to accumulate the best talent?
Fuck that.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 22, 2011 6:48 AM CST up reply actions
Rangers sign Joe Nathan, $14.5 million/2 years
Gagne II? That’s a fair bit of money for a reliever with a 4.84 ERA/4.28 FIP last season after returning from a serious injury, even if Nathan did used to be the best in the game.
This market sucks. Brewers are only going to be able to afford half-a-Counsell.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
We'll just tap into Canada's supply of Canadian Short-Stops...
The Brewers organization doesn’t have much competition there, anyhow. I’m really proud of our FO’s Canadian network!
by Jess'HittheBall on Nov 21, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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