SS/3B Math

While I have seen the Brewers predicatively linked to 1B free agents like Carlos Pena, and while I don't necessarily have loads of confidence in Mat Gamel myself, I think the two clearly more pressing needs for 2012 are SS and 3B.  The Brewers will definitely have to sign or trade for a starting SS in the next few weeks, and the tandem of Casey McGehee and Taylor Green is just not very good (or at least, probably has much less upside than Gamel at 1B and thus is a more clear route for improving the 2012 team).  

The Brewers have been linked to Jerry Hairston Jr. and may have already offered him a one-year deal, but I still don't see them using him as more than a super-utility guy again.  Given McGehee's epic collapse and the fact that he was finally benched in the offseason, I could see Melvin pursuing outside help at both SS and 3B.  Below are the obvious options at both positions, with salary predictions that I have either seen elsewhere on the internet or reasonable guesses based on 2011 salary/performance, and with an extremely crude "projection" of 2012 fWAR based on 60% 2011 fWAR/625 PA + 30% 2010 fWAR/625 PA + 10% 2009 fWAR/625 PA:

Note: I am fully aboard the Nakajima-Train and want Melvin to pursue the Japanese star SS that was recently-posted, Hiroyuki Nakajima, but I'm not sure that's realistic enough to consider, sadly.

Assuming that the Brewers will not pay McGehee $3.1 million (est. arbitration salary) to be a bench 3B/1B and will either trade or non-tender him if he's not starting, I calculated a Brewers payroll at about $82 million without a starting SS or 3B.  That includes $3 million for JHJ or a similar player to play a super-utility role off the bench, and $2.5 million for a reliever (maybe bringing back Saito or Hawkins).  Since the payroll will probably be relatively high after the team's success and continued "win-now" mode, I think a total payroll of $95-96 million or so is possible.  That leaves around $13-14 million to fill SS and 3B.  Possible combinations using that money:

JOSE REYES: Reyes would not fit into the payroll unless the team shed some salary, most likely Randy Wolf.  The Brewers might be able to find a team willing to take on Wolf's $9.5 million but probably would not get a major league piece in return.  It would also mean the Brewers would have to non-tender McGehee and go with Green at 3B, since there would be no room for another 3B salary.  Thus:

Reyes (5.2 fWAR, $20 mil.) + Green (1.0 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) - Wolf (1.5 fWAR, $9.5 mil.) + Estrada? (0.5 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) = 5.2 fWAR + $2 million to spend

JIMMY ROLLINS:

Rollins (3.7 fWAR, $14 mil.) + Green (1.0 fWAR, $0.4 mil.) = 4.7 fWAR

RAFAEL FURCAL: If Furcal really costs $10 million/year, as I've seen predicted, it would leave just enough room for McGehee/Betemit/Kouzmanoff; since their projected performance is similar also, the team would most likely just stick with McGehee, giving:

Furcal (2.7 fWAR, $10 mil.) + McGehee (1.4 fWAR, $3.1 mil.) = 4.1 fWAR

ALEX GONZALEZ: Gonzalez should be cheap enough that the Brewers could add a 3B free agent not named Aramis Ramirez.  I haven't heard is name mentioned much at all, but Casey Blake looks like the clear target to me.  He is getting up there in age, so playing a full season may be a problem, but the team will still have at the least Green and hopefully JHJ to cover some starts as well.  Blake's production has actually been better than A-Ram over the past three seasons, and the $6 million estimated price tag might be high:

Gonzalez (1.8 fWAR, $7 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 5.1 fWAR

RONNY CEDENO: Cedeno's "projected" performance isn't much worse than Gonzalez, but he figures to be much cheaper, making him a more attractive target perhaps, though with less upside.  Cedeno should be cheap enough that the Brewers could add a free agent 3B, most likely including Aramis Ramirez.  Assuming Blake can't handle an entire season anymore that might maximize the team's production better, but I kind of feel like A-Ram will be overpriced:

Cedeno (1.5 fWAR, $3 mil.) + Ramirez (2.7 fWAR, $11 mil.) = 4.3 fWAR

Cedeno (1.5 fWAR, $3 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 4.8 fWAR + $4 million to spend

CESAR IZTURIS/YUNIESKY BETANCOURT/ORLANDO CABRERA:

Noooooooooooo!!!!!!!

EDGAR RENTERIA: The numbers are still fairly kind to Renteria, which was surprising to me because I was under the impression that he was totally finished.  And maybe he is; he's definitely not capable of playing a full season anymore, but once again JHJ or another utility player could split time here.

Renteria (2.0 fWAR, $2.5 mil.) + Blake (3.3 fWAR, $6 mil.) = 5.3 fWAR + $4.5 million to spend

What's interesting about this?  These are very crude numbers obviously, but factoring in full seasons from Renteria and Blake, that tandem could very well be more valuable to the Brewers than unloading Wolf in order to get Reyes.  Renteria is not going to accumulate 625 PA though, so that 2.0 fWAR is is slightly misleading; then again, if he splits time with JHJ I don't think 2.0+ fWAR is out of the question.  If the Brewers went with Renteria/Hairston/Blake or Cedeno/Blake, they would even be left with enough money to upgrade the bullpen or, my preference, sign a second undervalued super-utility guy like Nick Punto to cover SS/3B.  They could also spend that money on a backup to Gamel at 1B.

However, my ultimate preference would be Alex Gonzalez and Casey Blake.  Based on the charts above, Cedeno looks like much better value than Gonzalez, but Cedeno is also riskier and with worse upside.  Assuming full seasons from each of Gonzalez/Blake and using the extremely crude "projections" from above, that tandem would be roughly equivalent to Reyes/Green (note: this all assume that Green is only a 1.0 fWAR player, but I'm not sure that's overly pessimistic...).  If you go by their best season from the previous three, Gonzalez (3.4 fWAR) + Blake (4.9 fWAR) = 7.3 fWAR "peak" value, which is likely similar to the "peak" of Reyes (6.2 fWAR) + Green (1.1+ fWAR).