Would trading Randy Wolf really help as much as some might think?
by backtocali on Nov 25, 2011 10:35 AM CST
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PrintAfter reading SRB's post about the SS/3B issue this season, I got to thinking about this "Let's trade Randy Wolf for salary relief" statement that has come up quite often this season.
As it stands right now, the consensus is pretty much that the Brewers have about $10 million to spend this offseason in order to improve the 1B, SS, 3B and relief pitching situation. Maybe a tad bit more could be spent depending on how much Mark Attanatsio may want to increase payroll based on last season's playoff revenues.
Randy Wolf is scheduled to earn $9.5 million in 2012 and there is a $1.5 million buyout on his contract for the 2013 season that no team in MLB is going to pay. His performance as a Brewer has been less than expected despite the fact he has "eaten innings" and "holds his own" from the #4 spot in the rotation. He put up a 1.4 WAR last season, and I would project him to produce at about a 1.9 WAR season this year.
At the most optimistic, you could project him for a 2.5 WAR season, but this would be a stretch considering his performance to date as a Brewer.
And with new draft compensation rules in place as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, nothing can be expected as far as draft compensation goes for him for the 2013 draft.
So his value is not all that good. With the most optimistic of projections, he would have A) a surplus value of $250,000 (with a 2.5 WAR expectation), more conservatively he would have a negative surplus value of around $2.4 million (1.9 WAR expectation), and even worse if he repeats what he did last season. Even if you factor in a "veteran pitcher" premium for a team desperate for starting rotation help, his value is very marginal.
This all means that the Brewers wind up swallowing at least half of that salary remaining in order to get more than a bag of balls in return for him. This also lessens the salary relief the team might get from getting him off of the payroll.
So lets assume that in a perfect world (remember that we do not live in a perfect world) the Brewers trade Wolf while still having to pick up at least half of the $11 million guaranteed remaining on his contract. That gives the team now $15.5 million to spend on upgrades for the coming season, while also creating a hole in the starting rotation. This scenario would allow you to obtain some teams pitching prospect that doesnt land in the Baseball America Top 100, but that still is in that teams top 10 prospects (i.e. its not an impact arm.
The big point of this is that although it was never really a wise move putting that much money on a guy like Wolf, and it doesn't help much that you have to over pay the guy for a #4 starting pitcher, its probably the best move to just hang onto him, because it still doesnt really free up enough money to significantly upgrade at 1B, 3B or SS, and the production from him is probably more predictable than from Marco Estrada or some teams less that impact level prospect, and as it was at this time last year, that 2 wins he is expected to add could make all the difference for the 2012 Brewers.
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1 WAR is worth more than 4 mil
Secondly, WAR is a bad measure for Wolf, as he is someone who consistently and repeatably outperforms his advanced metrics. If he can be trusted to post a 3.5 ERA, he’s worth 9.5 mil to someone.
Even if he is worth that to someone
It simply makes a trade for him a wash, meaning the Brewers probably still eat a bit of the salary just to get something in return.
I would think that if you put him in a pitchers park, in the NL, then you get your moneys worth. But does that team exist? And if you find that team, you still need to fill a rotation spot then with a more uncertain outcome.
If you're trading for salary relief
Getting someone good in return isn’t important. If eating 2 mil got them something actually good, sure, I’d think they’d consider it. If they’re eating more than 4-5 mil, then there’s really no point in trading him, as the Brewers wouldn’t be opening up the payroll, which is the entire point of the trade.
I hate agreeing with you.
And this is like the 3rd time in the last 10 days too.
PS: if you weed out the gratuitous shot at the Brewers signing Wolf in the first place, the masturbatory references to your “surplus value” system, not to mention the wonderfully vague and unhelpful phrase “impact arm”, your argument is just as persuasive, and you’ll seem like less of a dick. Just sayin’.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 25, 2011 11:09 AM CST reply actions 5 recs
What numbers are you using?
The value of a win is probably closer to $5 million (e.g. link) which means that a 1.9 fWAR projection * $5 million/fWAR = $9.5 million value. If you are factoring in the buy-out, just assume the Brewers will be paying it for the traded-to team in 2013; we would still be paying it if he’s not traded so why would that be a dealbreaker?
I think you’re being unrealistic either way though. You don’t think someone would gladly take on a 1-year/$9.5 million contract for a guy with a 3.69 ERA/212 IP last year?
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
I feel the need to point out that surplus value isn't what GMs use to decide if they should trade a player
Also, salary relief implies they pay nothing or close to nothing. If they can’t get a trade like that, they don’t make it.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
Wolf probably has more value to the Brewers than he does in a trade.
However, given the weak starting pitching free agent class, and the fact that several contending teams need starting pitching, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wolf flipped at the deadline.
Also, there’s the matter of his $4M of deferred money that nobody seems to know how it works.
I'm assuming he gets $2 million this year
Wolf has more value to the Brewers than the return in a trade most likely; the point is to trade Wolf to open up salary room to bring in value via free agency. backtocali seems to think nobody would take Wolf at $9.5 million in a market where Mark Buehrle is going to get like $400 million.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Nov 27, 2011 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Come on now....
… don’t exaggerate. Buehrle’s only going to get $390 million.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 27, 2011 8:10 PM CST up reply actions
But its not at 9.5 million
Its 11 million, not to mention this $4 million in deferred money that I wasnt aware of.
So now youre looking at 1 year of Wolf for about $15 million. Randy Wolf is a below average pitcher at this point in his career, a team could go and get a DFA’d player at the last minute, keep him in AAA until June 1st on a minor league deal, and then call him up and get the same performance (perfect world case) that Wolf could give you.
The Brewers arent going to just get rid of him and not expect something in return. As TCY and I are trying to illustrate, he is more valuable to the Brewers now with his salary because if you have to pay $3 of his salary this year for instance, and have to pick up the other $5.5 million in excercise money, and deferred, the extra $6 million in salary relief doesnt really improve your chances that much of picking up a higher quality FA, and then you are still left with filling a 2 win void in your rotation
So many contradictions.
Randy Wolf is a “below average pitcher” but would leave a 2-win void.
And other teams would have no problem finding a DFA’d pitcher as valuable as Wolf, but the Brewers would be lost trying to fill that hole?
by placidity on Nov 28, 2011 10:16 AM CST up reply actions 3 recs
Why would the deferred money be part of the trade? I'm not even sure that's possible.
The buyout is totally irrelevant to a salary dump move too. The Brewers will be on the hook if they don’t trade him, so why wouldn’t they just sent $1.5 million like KC did with Betancourt? That’s on the 2013 payroll.
13 W, 3.69 ERA, 210+ IP the last three seasons. Lots of teams would love to have Wolf at 1 year/$9.5 million. Maybe I agree that the Brewers couldn’t expect a valuable return (or maybe not) but that’s not the point of a salary dump.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
Boom, easy then
Even if letting go of Wolf saves the Brewers $1 (aka the Wil Nieves haul), they can just get a DFA’d guy and get the same performance. Take the $1!
Get a ife broseph
I realize you're half joking, but 2.0 WAR is an average major leaguer. 0.0 WAR is a replacement player
A DFA’d guy would be considered to have replacement value. So Wolf is theoretically 2 wins better than “a DFA’d guy” is.
I'd forgotten about the deferred money...
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Nov 27, 2011 8:09 PM CST up reply actions
If I had to guess
I’d say that the deferred money would be paid by the team that deferred it (the Brewers).
The $4M was deferred money from his 2010 salary (he was owed $9.25M, but was only paid $5.25M). I would think that regardless which team he finishes the contract with, the Brewers would still owe him that money (since he earned it while playing for them).
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
Have you tried asking Haudricourt?
I believe he reported the deferred money when Wolf was signed.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You never will now that the weather is turning.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 28, 2011 8:31 PM CST up reply actions
^^^ What does that mean?
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Nov 30, 2011 2:42 PM CST up reply actions
Especially in early and late season.
The man clearly does not like to be wet or cold.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 1, 2011 7:30 PM CST up reply actions
Tom spends an inordinate amount of time complaining about the weather both early and late in the season
as cwolf and TSSC point out. Unless its 85 and sunny, he’s bitching.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 1, 2011 9:31 PM CST up reply actions
Seems logical that it would have been $2 million in 2011 and $2 million in 2012.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
That's actually what I always assumed. But it might be $1 per year from 2013-2016. Who knows.
Matt Holliday’s contract pays him til he’s almost 50.
I'm sure Pujols' new contract will pay him until he's at least 50
But that’s only 10 years from now.
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