Monday's Frosty Mug
Some things to read while going to bed early.
We're 103 days away from Opening Day and it's hard to believe any of those mornings will be quieter than this one. For today's top story, we turn to the coaching carousel: Dale Sveum is interviewing for the Cubs' managerial opening today, and Ken Rosenthal says he might be the favorite to become the new manager in Boston.
Here are today's Prince Fielder notes:
- High Heat Stats says Fielder was 2011's third most productive hitter (ranked by batting runs per plate appearance. Ryan Braun was eighth.
- Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk ranked Fielder as this winter's second most valuable free agent, with Francisco Rodriguez checking in 16th.
- The Dodgers still seem like a long shot to offer any big contracts this offseason, but Ken Rosenthal says the team could help solve its financial woes by signing Fielder or Albert Pujols.
- Lou of Reviewing the Brew listed his favorite three Prince Fielder memories.
I guess I'm going to look foolish if it actually happens, but I still can't see the Brewers signing Jose Reyes. Buster Olney disagrees, though, and said this on Twitter:
Don't know where Jose Reyes will land, but I do think the Brewers would be an excellent fit for him; they've got money to spend, too.
I'm not sure what Olney's looking at, but the ~$10 million available to fill six or seven positions in our 2012 payroll estimate would suggest that "they've got money to spend" is technically true but not necessarily valid here.
Assuming the Brewers are going to shop for a new shortstop but Jose Reyes is out of their price range, Aaron Gleeman has a guide to upgrading the position for the budget-conscious consumer.
Here's a reminder why the upgrade is so important: Bill James' 2012 Handbook says Yuniesky Betancourt has been baseball's worst defensive shortstop over the last three seasons, costing his teams 46 runs. This season's Rickie Weeks-Yuni double play combo, though, was baseball's 18th best.
Elsewhere in offseason speculation, Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew has an offseason blueprint for the Brewers to follow. The Sporting News (Anthony Witrado) also has a preview of the Brewer offseason.
The Brewers did make one minor transaction this weekend, hiring Andy Pratt to serve as a pro scout (FanShot). Pratt had been working as an instructor in the Rangers organization.
A team of MLB stars wrapped up their week-long exhibition series in Taiwan last night, beating the Chinese Taipei national team 6-4 to complete a five game sweep. LaTroy Hawkins made his second appearance of the series and allowed a run on two hits in an inning.
The race to have 2011's best mustache continues, and John Axford continues to lead it: He coasted through the first round of The Outside Corner's MLB Mustache Madness tournament, and now faces Carl Pavano.
I'm not sure if this award would be more or less flattering: Nyjer Morgan is currently second in NotGraphs' voting to assign the nickname "I Am Not Afraid Of You And I Will Beat Your Ass." He's a long way behind Kyle Farnsworth, though.
In the minors:
- Caleb Gindl was yesterday's top VWL performer, going 2-for-3 with two walks and a home run in Caracas' 6-0 win over Margarita. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes.
- While most of the AFL Brewers got back-to-back days off this weekend, Jed Bradley pitched a scoreless inning with a pair of strikeouts in the prospect league's Rising Stars Game. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus said Bradley pitched an impresssive inning, has a pro body and very good stuff, but has been "frustratingly inconsistent."
- Meanwhile, Jimmy Nelson and a handful of others are headed to Maryvale to take part in a small, two week winter minicamp.
- Matt Garrioch of MLB Bonus Baby says the Brewers added $9.78 million in value in the 2011 draft, the 23rd most among MLB teams.
- Baseball America is reporting the Brewers have released Steffan Wilson. He was a 27th round pick out of Harvard in 2007 and hit .239/.296/.325 in 123 games for Huntsville last season.
- 18 other Brewer minor leaguers became free agents over the weekend. I listed my thoughts on a few of them here. Baseball America has the list of all 537 minor league free agents around baseball.
- I'd like to take a moment this morning to thank Mass Haas of Brewerfan.net, who has decided to step down after over ten years producing that site's daily minor league Link Reports. Through those posts he's been producing tireless quality content there for almost three times as long as I've been writing here, and we're all better informed for it.
If you missed it on Friday, Corey Hart was profiled as the ninth entry on our list of 2011's Most Valuable Brewers. If you haven't yet there's still time to vote for #10: As of this writing Randy Wolf leads Jonathan Lucroy by 19 votes.
Around baseball:
Blue Jays: Acquired pitcher Trystan Magnuson from the A's for cash considerations.
Diamondbacks: Signed manager Kirk Gibson and general manager Kevin Towers to contract extensions through 2014 with club options through 2016.
Orioles: Are expected to announce former Red Sox GM Dan Duquette as their new general manager tomorrow.
Phillies: Signed first baseman/DH Jim Thome to a one year deal worth $1.25 million plus incentives.
If the Orioles' GM search is over, then I know a couple of people who are going to be disappointed: Both Marc Normandin and Jack Moore were hoping the search would come to them.
Elsewhere in notes from Baltimore: it'll be interesting to see if the Brewers find room in the organization to add one more scout: Scott Miller of CBS is reporting that the Orioles fired longtime scout Gary Roenicke this offseason. Gary, if you haven't made the connection, is Ron's brother.
Here's today's baseball economics note: The Mets have laid off roughly 10% of their non-player employees in an effort to cut payroll (FanShot).
If you're still wondering why the Braves melted down in September this season, here's one possibility to consider: Peter Gammons noted that three Atlanta relievers were in the top four in all of baseball in appearances on back-to-back days.
- Mike Matheny is one of the candidates that's interviewing for the Cardinals managerial vacancy.
- Beyond the Box Score notes that eleven players in baseball history have worn at least eight different uniform numbers. Five of them (Russell Branyan, Jamey Wright, Henry Blanco, Corey Patterson and Nelson Figueroa) wore one of those numbers in Milwaukee.
I'll admit it, I missed this meme: NotGraphs has visual evidence of Joe West ejecting soon-to-be former Dodgers owner Frank McCourt.
Here's something I missed over the weekend, but still wanted to mention: Saturday was the eighth anniversary of the launch of Athletics Nation, the first site on what went on to become the SB Nation network. Eight years later the network has 316 sites and continues to be a great platform for writers like me across the spectrum of sports.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to find Mark.
Drink up.
41 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
still think there is less than 1% chance of the Brewers signing Reyes
they may have some money available this offseason to do it, but let’s consider the contracts that will be getting raises in the next few years. Also, if you sign Reyes to a big deal, you’re basically saying goodbye to Marcum and/or Greinke, I think.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 10:43 AM CST reply actions
No, no, and no.
We aren’t going to be getting any pitching unless we are going to dismantle and rebuild. Filling spots on offense is easy – even shortstop – compared to assembling a rotation.
right, which is why I think it's bad for the Brewers to sign Reyes
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 12:14 PM CST up reply actions
Disagree
There are more mlb average pitchers in the game (even if you divide the number by 5 rotation spots) than shortstops.
You have to be really bad at scouting or really unlucky (the Brewers have been both) when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers. During their history, the team has drafted only a handful of mlb caliber shortstops.
I dont think they can afford to sign Reyes, and if they could should simply re-sign Fielder, but its definitely more difficult to find a premium or even average shortstop than it is to find that in a pitcher.
As well as not being able to afford Reyes, they wont be able to afford Greinke either when his FA time comes, and shouldnt offer a LT deal to Marcum. But trading Greinke for pieces (that are worth it) and then signing Reyes is not a bad deal.
Brewers TV revenue tripples in 2013 from roughly 10 mill to about 30 million. That wont all go to players but they could afford a slight pay bump.
Streak Breakers.com
All things being equal, maybe.
But who would blame Mark A. if he took a little bit?
Also, inflation, cost of living increases, yearly raises for staff and operations personnel, etc. If they don’t raise ticket prices, I don’t think anyone can assume that extra $20M translates that much into player salaries.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 7:59 PM CST up reply actions
I would expect the trippling of TV revenue in 1 year to be well more than enough to ofset inflation
I wouldn’t blame Mark A if he took a bit, I also don’t think it should all go to player salary either (scouting, development, etc) but I do think we will likely see payroll bump a bit if we need to extend someone like ZG. Not to 100 Million but maybe instead of regularity having an 80 million payroll that might move to 90 million or so like it was at the start of 09.
Also ticket prices usually increase with inflation, there not going to stay where there at unfortunately, we will continue to see them rise and that’s going to also help offset increases in cost of living.
Streak Breakers.com
That's what I was thinking.
Perhaps $95 on a regular basis.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 8, 2011 10:48 AM CST up reply actions
Wow, the tripling of the TV deal is very interesting
Had wondered if they’d start to see more revenue from that.
Get a ife broseph
Narveson for Morrison
That guy has to be completely out of his mind if he thinks the Brewers are getting Logan Morrison for Chris Narveson. While we are at it we might as well offer Gamel for Hanley Ramirez.
I'm fairly certain that Hanley Ramirez's value had its peak about two seasons ago.
I’d take him on my team, but that means a (reportedly) stubborn and egotistical poor defender who had an utterly atrocious season at the plate last year and needed surgery at the end of the season.
Mat Gamel might be the best they can get for him at this point.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
And it looks like the Marlins are meeting with Jose Reyes
Possibly moving Hanley to 3B? Maybe a trade?
Good times.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 3:50 PM CST up reply actions
Marlins are interested in Pujols and Fielder as well
looks like they want to make a big FA splash going into the new stadium next year
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 4:55 PM CST up reply actions
uh what
#Royals acquire LHP Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo from Giants for OF Melky Cabrera.
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 12:14 PM CST reply actions
Any time you can get Melky Cabrera on your team, you have to do it
In related news, I hope the Brewers try to make a trade with the Giants
Get a ife broseph
Its not like Jonathan Sanchez is anything better than a 4th or 5th starter anyway
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
this also opens up a starting spot for Lo Cain
I am too drunk to taste this chicken.
by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 12:21 PM CST up reply actions
This is what I was thinking too.
Hopefully he can put up numbers like he did when he was with us. I really liked the guy and was sad to see him go, so I hope he gets another chance to do well next year.
"People ask me what I do in the winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."- Rogers Hornsby
Wow
Did Dayton Moore just outsmart somebody?
by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 7, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
That is not very much for Sanchez
It is very good move by the Royals when they needed a place for Cain to play anyway and this should mean that they no longer have no SPs at league average.
I can’t believe that if the Giants wanted to trade for a CF, they could not of done better than Cabrera for Sanchez. At that rate the Brewers could of offered Morgan for Cain
Disagree
Sanchez’s 2011 WAR: 0.6.
Cabrera’s 2011 WAR: 4.2
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions
I'd hope you looked at more than one year, or examined why their WAR was what it was
Simply pulling 1 year WAR samples doesn’t do much for you.
Sanchez had a 3.85, 4.17, 4.00 and 4.30 FIPs the last 4 years. He had a bicep injury (not a shoulder or elbow) and ankle injury that needs to be accounted for.
Melky’s WAR before this year: (-)1 just last year, 1.6, 0.1, 0.5, 1.7 working backwards from that.
I guess it depends on how you view Melky – I think he might have had an outlier year and is really a 4th or 5th OF type player, while Sanchez can be a 3-4-5th starter on a WS team.
Its not a “steal” or anything for the Royals, I just think the Giants have to be worried they just traded a capable starter for a 4th OF.
Get a ife broseph
Ok, well I guess we just completely disagree
I don’t think Sanchez is anything more than a 2 WAR player, and I’ll bet Cabrera is a 2 WAR player.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 1:52 PM CST up reply actions
Well at least the Giants saved money, even if their team may be worse
I don’t get the assumption that Cabrera is a 2 WAR player when he’s topped 2 WAR once in his career and was below replacement level in 2010, but Sanchez will never be more than a 2 WAR player when he’s had 2.8, 2.4, and 1.9 WAR seasons.
Get a ife broseph
I believe that his injury was not too horrible
But as it was with Jody Gerut a few years ago with the Brewers, the Giants were quite unhappy with how he was rehabbing the injury.
If I were going to project, I would put Cabrera at 2.1 WAR and Sanchez at 1.9 WAR for next year. Even if Cabrera is only 1 WAR you still save the $5 million in salary for next year. maybe its enough for them to pursue Reyes or Fielder.
How are you projecting WAR to the 0.1?
Just a guess, or what are you going off of…especially with Sanchez’s injury?
Get a ife broseph
He was originally projected last season to have a 3.8 I believe
And he pitched about 2/3rds of the season and put up 0.6 WAR. So if you project that out thats 0.9 for a full season, even if you think that the injury cut his production in half, I think 1.9 WAR is a pretty fair estimate. Add to the fact that he isnt really projected to have big improvements year over year from this point going forward as a 29 year old pitcher who had an arm problem.
Well he pitched 192 innings in 2010, and 101 in 2011
So that’s about 52%, not 2/3rds. Where is the 3.8 WAR coming from? Most projections had him really similar to his 2010 season (2.4 WAR). And Melky’s 2.1?
I don’t actually care, was just wondering if you had a system, it seems like mostly guesswork – in the future you should probably just say “close to 2” if you don’t actually know or have a proven system like Zips or something like that.
Get a ife broseph
I think they're probably both about 2 WAR players
If Sanchez can get a grip on his command, his upside could be around 3 like he’s shown in the past.
I think that Melky’s upside was this year. He’ll probably correct for that, though.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
Sanchez has good stuff
walks too many, command and control problems. Oliver Perez got a big contract, once.
Cabrera is a switch hitter, who (yes, I know) was BSoHL last year, and put up 4.2 WAR.
Both Sanchez and Cabrera have their issues, but I think the trade was pretty even value.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Nov 7, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions
The Giants are actually the winners in this deal
Both players are in their last arb years, Cabrera may even have 2 years depending on if he was a super 2.
Cabrera is significantly cheaper than Sanchez and although Sanchez was hurt most of the season, has been very inconsistent over his career. Cabrera was worth 4.2 WAR last season and the Giants need a CF. If anything, the $5 million or so cleared from the payroll allows the Giants to make a move on Reyes or Fielder now.
Even if a one for one deal and no other FA signings occur, the Giants improved themself over last season at a key defensive position, and replace Sanchez in the rotation wtih Surkamp, Vogelsong or even Zito. If they get even 2 WAR out of one of those pitchers, the Giants are a better team for this trade.
I heard that Mr. Goldenhands is a pretty cool nickname.
"Obi Braun Kenobi you're our only hope!"
by ObiBraunKenobi on Nov 7, 2011 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs







































