MVBrewer #10: Randy Wolf

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 7, 2011 2:09 PM CST in Most Valuable Brewers 2011

ST LOUIS, MO - OCTOBER 13: Randy Wolf #43 of the Milwaukee Brewers reacts after he hit a double in the top of the third inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during Game 4 of the National League Championship Series at Busch Stadium on October 13, 2011 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

I think it's possible the 2011 Brewers were the perfect fit for Randy Wolf.

Last year, the Brewers probably attached a little too much hope to their big free agent signing. Wolf was coming off a great year with the Dodgers in 2009, pitching 214.1 innings and posting a 3.23 ERA on a team that also had Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and a breakout season from 21-year-old Clayton Kershaw. Wolf came to the Brewers and was forced to anchor a pitching staff that didn't have many quality parts around him, settling in as the #2 starter in front of the likes of Dave Bush, Manny Parra and Doug Davis among others.

With Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke pitching in front of him this season, Wolf thrived at the back end of the rotation. His walk rate dropped noticeably from 3.6 per nine innings to 2.8, he saw a slight dip in his home run rate and he posted a 3.69 ERA while making 33 starts.

Wolf's largest source of value as a Brewer has been his ability to eat innings. He pitched a career-high 215.2 in 2010 and followed it up with 212.1 in 2011. He's only the 12th Brewer in franchise history to pitch 210 or more innings in back to back seasons, and only the fourth since 1990:

Pitcher	Seasons	Years
Ben Sheets	3	2002-04
Jaime Navarro	3	1991-93
Randy Wolf	2	2010-11
Chris Capuano	2	2005-06

Breaking 200 innings each of the last two seasons has netted Wolf an extra $500,000 in contract incentives.

Contract status

Wolf still has one year left on his contract with the Brewers, which will pay him $9.5 million in 2012. He also has a $10 million club option for 2013 with a $1.5 million buyout. As things stand right now he'll be the third highest paid Brewer in 2012, behind only Zack Greinke ($13.5 million) and Rickie Weeks ($11 million).

Best game

Wolf had some excellent performances in the regular season this year. On August 15, for example, he pitched eight shutout innings in a 3-0 Brewer win over the Dodgers. He also pitched seven scoreless innings in a pitcher's duel against the Cubs on June 13, a game the Brewers ended up losing 1-0.

Looking back, though, his most memorable positive contribution has to be his seven inning outing against the Cardinals in Game 4 of the NLCS. With the Brewers looking like they might backslide their way out of the playoffs, Wolf steadied the ship and helped the Brewers even the series.

Here are the highlights from his performance:

Poll

Should the Brewers look to trade Randy Wolf for salary relief this winter?

Yes

107 votes

No

216 votes

Undecided

45 votes

368 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 17 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

2012 Salary

If he’s behind Greinke and Weeks next season, wouldn’t that make him the third highest paid Brewer?

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Nov 7, 2011 3:26 PM CST reply actions

Yes just ahead of Hart

by Saltire on Nov 7, 2011 5:08 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, fixed

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 7, 2011 5:29 PM CST up reply actions

I think the Brewers should be open to trade any of their players

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 7, 2011 3:49 PM CST reply actions

As long as it improves the team? Certainly.

Simply to free payroll? That gets dangerous.

by mpbMKE on Nov 7, 2011 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Sometimes freeing payroll helps the team

But yeah, assuming the trade helps the team.

Get a ife broseph

by Supertramp on Nov 7, 2011 5:24 PM CST up reply actions

I think the Brewers should trade Wolf

it’s probably unlikely he replicates 2011’s success, so the Crew would be trading him at his highest value.

I am too drunk to taste this chicken.

by ThroughBeingCool on Nov 7, 2011 4:54 PM CST reply actions

Any particular reason you believe that?

Or just saying it’s unlikely because that’s the best way to justify your stance? I’m not saying you’re wrong, necessarily, I just don’t know that you’re right, either. It’s probably just as likely he has a similar year as not. And it’s not like he was bad in 2010, so even if the drop-off is to that level, he’s still valuable in the rotation, in my opinion, depending on the other options they have (which aren’t many, considering the holes in the bullpen, lack of minor league depth, and free agent priority at other positions).

by mpbMKE on Nov 7, 2011 5:02 PM CST up reply actions

Wolf's FIP was 0.6 higher than his ERA, and his xFIP 0.78 higher

Regression’s a better bet than maintaining his 2011 performance.

by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 7, 2011 5:05 PM CST up reply actions

Still, they've got a pitcher they can pretty much count on to be worth 1.0-1.4 WAR next year

in their 4th slot. That’s not too bad and probably better than they could expect to get on the free agent market for anything approaching his salary. Unless they could either unload his entire salary or get a substantial piece in return, they would be making a mistake to trade away a pitcher that’s all but guaranteed not to suck.

by ecocd on Nov 7, 2011 5:09 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Are there advancedthat predict imporvement?

The entire field seems rife with entropy.

That’s not really the point, just a tangent. But I do like that, the next question is would that level of regression make him a less-attractive option as a back-of-the-rotation starter than another available player?

by mpbMKE on Nov 7, 2011 5:09 PM CST up reply actions

By that logic, he's been "due for regression" in six of the last eight seasons.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Nov 7, 2011 5:31 PM CST up reply actions

This year was the second-biggest xFIP-ERA gap of his career

I’d pencil him in for an ERA around 4 next year. Anything better than that would be gravy.

by Cheeseandcorn on Nov 7, 2011 10:41 PM CST up reply actions

Guess it depends on whether you like rWar or fWar.

Personally, I think a repeat of this year is the absolute best case scenario for Wolf with the chance of some regression being more likely. Moreover, I think Estrada performed well enough this year as a starter to make me feel comfortable if he and Narvy were the 4/5 starters next year. I don’t necessarily think the Brewers should look to trade Wolf, but if some team was willing to offer a half-decent prospect for him, I think Estrada would be capable enough to mitigate the loss, especially if we were able to use that freed up money towards free agents.

by hibachi777 on Nov 7, 2011 8:55 PM CST reply actions

And Estrada still has 2 guys behind him that could easily be just as good as Wolf

in Peralta and Fiers.

by cwolf20 on Nov 8, 2011 12:27 AM CST up reply actions

If your experimenting like that with your rotation I would rather it be with the #5 spot, not with your #4. I want a known quantity in your #4.

Streak Breakers.com

by Flanyboy on Nov 8, 2011 6:11 AM CST up reply actions

Is Narveson not a known quantity?

by cwolf20 on Nov 8, 2011 8:54 AM CST up reply actions

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