Lesser Brewers: Casey McGehee
by Kyle Lobner on Dec 1, 2011 2:00 PM CST
in Most Valuable Brewers 2011
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We could only put off talking about Casey McGehee for so long, I guess.
In a season full of shining moments for the Brewers there was arguably no darker cloud than McGehee. A year removed from winning the Milwaukee BBWAA's Brewer MVP award, McGehee hit .223/.280/.346. After posting two fWAR in 2009 and 3.3 more in 2010, McGehee was worth just 0.3 in 2011.
Looking at his batted ball numbers confirms what you probably already knew if you've watched McGehee this season: A full 50% of the balls he put in play in 2011 were hit on the ground, a new career high. Combine that with a career-low 16.2% line drive rate and an absolute lack of speed and the cause of McGehee's offensive tailspin is relatively easy to spot: He was making poor to terrible contact a large chunk of the time and didn't have the physical capacity to turn poorly hit balls into base hits very often. That's also part of the reason he led the team by grounding into 19 double plays. To be honest, I was surprised it was only 19.
Given those numbers, the most surprising fact about McGehee might be the fact that the team still played him in 155 games. Only Prince Fielder made more appearances. In fact, Fielder, Ryan Braun (150) and Yuniesky Betancourt (152) were the only Brewers to play more than 140 games. In the playoffs, however, he was replaced at third base by Jerry Hairston Jr.
As noted above, McGehee is only one year removed from a very good 2010 season, and two years removed from a breakout campaign in 2009. There's still some reason to believe he could contribute something of value to this team in the years to come. Maybe having a long offseason to regroup or a new hitting coach next spring will help him start fresh and get back to being the hitter he was before this disaster started. But it remains to be seen if the Brewers will give him that opportunity.
Contract Status
McGehee's contract situation is one massive factor working against him at this point. He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to receive $3.1 million for 2012. That's a pretty high number for a bounce-back candidate, and at that price the Brewers may have to consider non-tendering him to pick up some payroll space to use elsewhere.
Assuming they keep him around, McGehee is under team control through the 2014 season.
Best Game
McGehee only hit 13 home runs in 2011, but three of them came on the same day against Edwin Jackson and the Cardinals. In a 10-5 Brewer win on August 3 McGehee drove in five runs with this trifecta:
McGehee also hit pinch hit home runs to win games on April 10 and July 6.
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$3.1 million? That's not happening.
McGehee doesn’t owe any particular allegiance to Milwaukee. The Brewers picked him up from the Cubs, but he forced his way onto the team in 2009 with a great Spring Training and no other overwhelming options in the Brewers org. A player that had an org stick with him through injuries or gave him a chance when no one else would might make a concession to stick with the team.
McGehee would be well within his rights to sell himself to the high bidder when the Brewers non-tender him. I don’t know that he’s worth $3 million on the Free Agent market, but if he does have a bounceback year, he could be one of the best value players on the market.
Sign him for a ST tryout
I could see the Brewers signing him for a spring training tryout. If he does well and earns the starting job, they keep him. If he doesn’t, they cut him.
by Oakland Brewer Fan on Dec 1, 2011 2:51 PM CST reply actions
Or just open a try out camp among local softball leagues
Thats how he got the job the first time around….I kid I kid.
Bad luck last year, he should be close to league average. Use Green as your super sub and see how well he hits for a full season.
I still want to see how far Prince could hit a ball with one of those ridiculous composite softball bats.
fka "warwick5s"
I think that what the Brewers decide to offer McGehee,
if they end up exchanging figures for arbritration, will give a good indication of what confidence they have in him. I can’t see McGehee asking for much less than $3.5 million (with the assumption that he is looking for around $3million) but the Brewers could offer anything from $2million and upwards.
I know that alot of the arbritration process is about looking at what comparable players make but I don’t know how much weight is put on the previous season compared to the overall career of the player.
I like McGehee but I would be worried if the Brewers end up paying him so much that they feel like that they have to make him the starter. I know that should not happen but I think that part of the reason that Yuni played so much is the fact he was making $4million last year.
I think $3 million would be a very fair reward for McGehee
Team is always going to low ball on arb offers, and player will always go high. If the midway for him is 3 then nothing to worry about.
I don't think what they offer will be an indication of anything other than what they think is the minimum they can offer and win the hearing.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Yuni
and the fact that they literally had nobody available in the organization that was a better option.
Sure, they could’ve tried Hairston there, but the injury to Weeks and dismal season by McGehee pretty much ended any chance of that.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
I wouldn't know where to find data like this
But when someone has a couple of excellent years and then a truly terrible one, how often do they make a comeback? Statistically, is it more likely than last year was an outlier in his expected career norms or is it more likely a steep drop off into some hard regression? So much of baseball now is based on stats. But is the fact that he seemed pretty hopeless this past year (offensively and defensively) really the huge red flag it seems like? I know there are a lot of good players that have down years; some turn it around and some never regain their earlier abilities. I’m sure there are other players like Casey who’ve had very extreme years but I worry about his ability to be back to 2009 or 2010 Casey. As I’ve said a few times, I think he’s probably going to be somewhere in between the 2 Casey’s we’ve seen.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Dec 1, 2011 4:04 PM CST reply actions
Yes, but he's one example. I'm wondering how often it happens. Often? Seldom?
I will be the first to admit I pay a ton of attention to what happens to the Brewers. But many other teams I know very, very little about. So I just don’t know what history tells us here because I’m not well versed in it.
by kotsaythebuzzkill on Dec 1, 2011 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
At this point 2009 - 2010 could be the outlier.
His MiLB stats were nothing special.
Give him an offspeed pitch down and in. He will swing and miss.
Good question
The complicating factor here is that McGehee was never expected to do anything. His ‘09-’10 performance was the aberration, while his ’11 performance was more in line with what everybody thought he was when the Brewers picked him off the scrap heap.
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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