Brief Thought on Potential Braun Suspension

We still don't know anything, but assuming Braun is suspended I've been hearing a lot of people talking as if this means the Brewers' 2012 season is over. The fan projection at Fangraphs currently has Braun at 6 fWAR over 152 games, which seems reasonable. A 50 game suspension reduces that by about 2 fWAR if his fill-in is replacement level. Gomez/Schafer/Morgan/Gindl are above replacement level, so it's probably a t think the season is over...

6 months ago SRB 3 comments 0 recs |

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We still don’t know anything, but assuming Braun is suspended I’ve been hearing a lot of people talking as if this means the Brewers’ 2012 season is over.

The fan projection at Fangraphs currently has Braun at 6 fWAR over 152 games, which seems reasonable. A 50 game suspension reduces that by about 2 fWAR if his fill-in is replacement level. Gomez/Schafer/Morgan/Gindl are above replacement level, so it’s probably a <2 fWAR loss.

It also frees up around $1.9 million in salary (suspensions are unpaid). If the Brewers use that to sign someone like Takashi Saito to a one-year deal, and he has a relatively healthy year like he did in 2010, you’ve probably upgrade the last spot in the bullpen (Kintzler?) by 0.5-1.0+ fWAR.

That mean that the impact of a 50 game Braun suspension is very possibly a loss of less than a win. I don’t think the season is over…

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 12, 2011 3:31 AM CST reply actions

On this we can agree.

I’ve seen several posters at VEB say that this all but guarantees the division for the Cardinals, and that seems like an absurdly presumptuous conclusion to come to – especially since there’s a certain MVP-caliber player that the Cardinals are going to be doing without this year, too.

I think a Braun suspension might really hurt the Brewers’ bottom line next year, as far as attendance and so on. But on the field, I’m pretty sure they can handle going without Braun until Memorial Day weekend. The other pieces of this team are really strong – Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Axford, K-Rod, Hart, Weeks, Morgan/Gomez. I think they’ll be all right.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 12, 2011 8:35 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Particularly now that they signed Ramirez

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Dec 12, 2011 3:32 PM CST up reply actions

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