Are the 2012 Brewers better than the 2011 Brewers?
by Jordan M on Dec 15, 2011 2:09 PM CST
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The answer to the question posed in the title really depends on your assumptions. To set up a model to project the amount of wins a team will have, you're going to have a necessary tradeoff between simplicity and practicality. The more assumptions you make, the easier and more practical it is to evaluate the model, but it's also going to be less realistic or accurate. There are a lot of assumptions built in, which is why anyone jumping in right now and saying "this team is 2 wins better than the 2011 team" is going to have to back that up with a full explanation of what, exactly, they mean by that.
The first subject that needs to be addressed is the baseline used for comparison. In my mind I see a few possibilities.
You could be looking at the 2011 team as a 96-win team, and then use projections to replace production from the new players while basically assuming the same production everywhere else from returning players. It's probably the simplest version and it's the version that's most prevalent in simple forecasting.
From that standpoint, it's easy to make an argument that the 2012 Brewers will be improved if Braun's not going to be suspended. You just say, conservatively, Ramirez is +2.5 wins at third base, Gonzalez is +1.5 at short, K-Rod is +1 being here the whole season, and Fielder to Gamel is a 3 win dropoff, and Saito and Hawkins are a loss of 1 win. That comes out to +1 overall. That's a nice, clean argument but it's so simple it's essentially meaningless.
There's a lot of problems in that but the biggest one is probably the baseline. It assumes that in retrospect the 2011 Brewers had a true talent of 96 wins. Is that a valid assumption? Maybe. But there's also a good argument that they slightly overperformed their context-neutral production. BP's third order wins gave them an adjusted record of 92.3-69.7. Clutch performances might have lifted up the total win level just a bit. There's nothing wrong with that, the Brewers were still far and away the best team in the NL Central, by 5 third order wins, and were second to the Phillies in the NL in that category.
That's not even touching on the changes in production from year to year. Production from 2011 is a reasonable starting point for projection for players in their prime, but it's not perfect. I'm not even getting into that yet.
The best projection for 2012 is going to take into account projections going forward and not use a comparison to 2011 because there are far too many variables in play to make that shoddy model mean much of anything. Be skeptical of anyone who makes bold conclusions based on something like that.
The reason I bring all of this up is to make my conclusion a little less mind-bending. Right now, I think the 2012 Brewers are better than the 2011 Brewers. How many wins do I project for the 2012 Brewers, right now? I'm saying 90-94. It's very possible, logically, to think that this team is better but still project a smaller amount of wins. And that the Brewers will be right in contention with that number.
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I think the 2012 Brewers
will be better than what people think, but it’ll be hard to top 2011.
Swagger Up!
by StegerWithSwagg on Dec 15, 2011 2:11 PM CST reply actions
Assuming Braun is there the whole seaso
I think this team is better.
A-Gon is better than Betancourt
A-Ram is worse than Fielder, but not by a lot
Gamel will probably have a better season than McGehee did (it would be hard not to, plus I think he has the potential to be MUCH better.)
Weeks should (hopefully) play a full season.
Lucroy should improve.
Braun will be Braun
Hart will be Hart
Greinke will have an extra month
Marcum should be more durable
Narve should is tough to predict, probably near the same
Gallardo will be Gallardo
Krod all year
Defense in general
Cons:
Morgan I think will regress
Wolf won’t be as good
No Hawk or Saito
No deity (kidding)
Axford might not be as dominant
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
SeasoN, rather.
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
by Grim Spandango on Dec 15, 2011 2:18 PM CST up reply actions
I just can't believe we have two Narrons.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 2:31 PM CST reply actions
It helps that Pujols is gone
and the only dropoff the Brewers will have is A-Ram’s D at 3rd and (unfortunately) a ton of production at 1B. I expect them the look internally for bullpen help. Braddock, Dillard, McClendon, and Fiers, (maybe Rogers?) are all viable candidates with MLB experience. And they (somehow) decided to tender Manny Parra so he might be able to LOOGY next year.
I know that Pujols is gone but
the drop off from Pujols to Berkman is not massive and it also means that they no longer have him standing out in RF (Indeed they may end up with Beltran playing there). If you combined that with having Furcal instead of Theriot, the bullpen closer to what was at the end of the season than the start and most importantly Wainwright coming back, the Cards could end up being better than last year.
Berkman played out of his mind last year.
I expect a significant dropoff.
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
by Grim Spandango on Dec 15, 2011 3:20 PM CST up reply actions
You're going from Pujols + Berkman -> Berkman
That’s negative one Pujols.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
by SRB on Dec 15, 2011 3:24 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Playing RF last season didn't seem to affect his performance at the plate
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
No but his defensive play at RF was very poor
I know that is was his best year since 2008 but in 2009 he still had an OPS of +140 which is not exactly a terrible year. In 2010 he missed 40 games with injuries.
What I am arguing is that Berkman is still probably going to be a very good hitter this coming season but without the negative of his fielding in RF.
It will be a drop off from Pujols but not alot and the improvement in other areas will more than compensate for this.
I realise that this does not take into account the lack of Berkman in RF and his hitting there but if they get Beltran I don’t think that they will miss much at all. Indeed Beltran will be more than able to make up the short fall with the glove.
If they do not get Beltran, then Craig is still a pretty decent player.
Berkman's also not as good defensively at 1st as Pujols is
"I'm here to talk about the economy today -- about the need to get four quarters of strong, consistent performance. That wasn't another Jay Cutler joke, I swear. It could be, but it's not."
Agreed
I think the Cards are going to be a really good team next year, especially if they get Beltran.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 15, 2011 4:24 PM CST up reply actions
Going into this article, I was projecting your recs at 5-7
I’ve made sure its at 1.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
I'm in the same camp. "Better" team, 90-94 wins.
I just don’t think you can project a team to have 95+ wins, ever. Lots of stuff has to break right for you.
The 2012 team obviously loses Prince, and expecting Morgan to put up another T-Clutch season would be wrong, but I kind of think the 2011 Brewers had more things go wrong for them (injuries, McGehee, Greinke weirdness, bullpen to start the year) than right. Braun’s MVP season wasn’t overperformance, Hart and Weeks had seasons that were in line with previous performance, and that’s still a damn good pitching staff.
fka "warwick5s"
I don't think that the Brewers were that badly hit by injuries last year
I agree with you that with the exception of Morgan it is not unlikely that the rest of the hitters will be the same this year but with the obvious improvements at 3B and, fielding wise atleast, at SS.
The bullpen will probably be the same overall but it is probable that Axford is not quite as lights out in the close role as he was last year.
As with alot of teams it comes down to the health of the starting pitchers. If the starting 5 pitch close to as many innings as they did combined last year there is no reason why the Brewers cannot win 90+ games, and that is even if Braun is missing for the start of the season.
Injuries last year
Greinke = 4 weeks
Hart = 3 weeks
Lucroy = 2 weeks
Morgan = 5 weeks
Weeks = 5 weeks (you could also argue that he never was 100% after he came back)
Granted, everyone isn’t going to be healthy the entire season, but I don’t think you can discount the impact that these injuries had on the team.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
by sjlee on Dec 15, 2011 3:40 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
The starting pitching was remarkably healthy.
How often do you only need six starters all year?
We pull our pants up and do our jobs here.
Braun also missed time
Not a lot but still significant
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
So 19 weeks in total by the starting 8 hitters and the 5 SPs
That works out at about 1.5 weeks per player. I would be surprised that that put the Brewers in the top half of the most time on the DL by the starting line-up of major league teams. I’m not saying that injuries did not impact the team but that compared to average the Brewers were less affected than average.
Indeed 19 weeks is less time than somebody who is out for the whole season.
2011 was only Nyjer Morgan's second best season in the last three years
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
A lot of his value last year was his success in important situations
and since “clutch” isn’t a real repeatable thing I’d expect some falling off.
fka "warwick5s"
by DEUCE SLUICE on Dec 15, 2011 5:54 PM CST up reply actions
He was worth 4.0 fWAR last season, no clutch included.
(and he was worth 5.2 fWAR in 2009)
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
I pegged the Brewers as a 89-90 win team last year
And I think that’s about right for this year too.
The big unanswered question
is whether we’ll get another BEARDEDJEFF-ing this season. If we do, we’ll have to knock another 3 or 4 wins off the projection…
"I love it when any team called 'The Brew Crew' wins": Tad Kubler
"LOLOL I LOVE YUNI!!!!": ThroughBeingCool
Ha, yeah.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
Cardinals sign J.C. Romero
They’re determined to make their bullpen worse than it was in 2011
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
So weird
After they did so much to make it an asset by the end of last year.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 15, 2011 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure if it is because the division is weaker or
because this is a good team, but I still see the Brewers winning the division. Some of Pujols’ loss in production and Berkman’s expected regression can be covered by Wainwright, but the Brewers have enough 1-2 win gains over last year that they could cover their losses. I also expect Grienke to receive greater results from similar performance to this year.
Is this more bargaining?
I’m sorry, but I’ll be completely shocked if Braun dodges his suspension. Regardless of his guilt. The system is designed to make it virtually impossible to win an appeal. If all Braun has is he’s always been clean before and the second test was positive, I don’t see how he can win.
Doesn’t mean they won’t contend, but it is a problem. If you assume that Braun misses 50 games, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to conclude that we’ll come out of that 50 games with 3-5 fewer wins than we would have with him. I know WAR suggests it should only be 1-2, but that’s not how WAR is designed to be used, in my opinion. Now, do I have a numerical calculus that gets me to 3-5? No, I don’t. It’s a guess. But I think it’s a reasonable guess.
I also think that tearing Braun out of the lineup for 50 games has a potential to knock the wheels off the team entirely. We all know that teams occasionally over-perform or under-perform, sometimes to dramatic levels. Those events are hard to predict because they often have little to do with actual measurable talent, or foreseeable changes in measurable production. They have way more to do with ephemeral things like psychology and team chemistry than they do WAR or UZR, and that makes them hard to quantify, let alone predict.
But that doesn’t mean they aren’t real. Any human endeavor is prone to unpredictability based on mental toughness or weakness, resiliency or brittleness. Sometimes human beings just break. They just do. I’m guessing we all know people it’s happened to, either in sports or real life. And that’s why I still believe in the clutch player, even though there is statistical evidence that rationally allows the argument that it’s complete nonsense. These are still people we’re talking about, and I think it’s reasonable to be a little concerned about how they’ll react to losing Braun for 50 games, and how that reaction might affect their performance.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 5:59 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
I don’t think we can say whether Braun will or will not be suspended, because we don’t have all the facts. Clearly players have appealed and won. Who knows how often that happens (it doesn’t leak if it’s not the MVP).
I also completely disagree with your other contentions. For one, looking at how much we should expect Braun to be worth over 50 games seem as good a use of WAR as any. He’s not a 15 WAR player, expecting a 5 win loss is unrealistic. And you seem to be giving the team too little credit with regard to their mental toughness: remember when we were all panicking because Rickie Weeks got injured and would be out seemingly indefinitely, hoping the Brewers could just tread water? They ended up going like 30-0.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
"I also completely disagree with your other contentions"
Yeah, I know.
If it were all played on paper, or plugged into a formula, I’d agree with you. It’s not. I’m not saying it’s going to happen that way, I’m saying I’m worried it will.
And much as I love Rickie Weeks, he’s no Ryan Braun, and we still had Braun and Fielder when Rickie got hurt.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
I know it's not played on paper, that doesn't mean there's any basis whatsoever to think the team will crumble beacuse Braun is suspended.
If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!
Have it your way then.
I’ve had it with you contempt for anyone who disagrees with you.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:04 PM CST up reply actions
You first.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:06 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with you in that the scenario you describe is certainly possible
I don’t think it’s likely, though. I could see the team stumbling out of the gate without Braun and being too far out of it to make a realistic run by the time he comes back, for all the reasons you mentioned. I could also see them playing fine without him, and then going to a whole different level once he’s back.
I’m definitely going to be emotionally prepared for the possibility of an early-season collapse (mostly because I’m a pessimist). I’m just not necessarily going to expect one.
by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 15, 2011 11:00 PM CST up reply actions
Someone else posted this, but I will re-post it, because it is crazy.
This guy apparently talked to two guys from the Brewers’ front office who told him,yes, indeed, Ryan Braun has herpes, and yes, indeed, this caused his elevated testosterone levels. If this is true, it might me fair to say that PJLizard got the scoop on this one.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 7:07 PM CST reply actions
Yish.
I’d take the 50 game suspension over announcing to the whole world I had herpes.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 7:12 PM CST up reply actions
And hence the whole reason this wasn't supposed to be in the public
While ESPN isn’t liable for exposing the news, the source would (if anyone cared enough to determine who leaked) be headed to jail for a little while. At the very least, they would lose their job and find it difficult to get a new one.
by ecocd on Dec 15, 2011 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 3 recs
No argument there.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
Fuck that
I’d rather be the best clean baseball player in the NL with an STD than have a PED cloud hanging over my entire career.
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 7:31 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
The cloud will be there regardless
He’s CLEARLY just using his Herpes medication as a masking agent for all the ‘roids he can possibly inject into his butt. You just DON’T GET IT it do you?! Braun’s reputation is besmirched no matter what at this point.
Why publicly announce you have an STD when it won’t make a difference in public opinion? How many groupies would care about a confirmed STD, anyway?
I don't think so.
If this is true I think ESPN becomes the villain and Braun becomes the victim.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 7:40 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
This.
And he wouldn’t have to announce anything, his arbitration is (in theory) also a closed-door matter. The 50-game suspension doesn’t officially exist until after arbitration.
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 7:47 PM CST up reply actions
That's wishful thinking, in my opinion.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 7:53 PM CST up reply actions
I mean
everyone knows Michael Vick has herpes – do you give that a second thought when you think about Michael Vick?
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 7:58 PM CST up reply actions
Not really.
But I meant that I think it’s wishful thinking that the PED cloud isn’t going to hang over Braun’s head regardless of the outcome of this process.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:03 PM CST up reply actions
Oh, I agree it will
but if he’s not suspended, whether or not “HERPES” is the reason, it will provide a substantial amount of doubt about whether he’s a juicer – which is a hell of a lot more than he’s getting right now.
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 8:06 PM CST up reply actions
We'll see I guess....
…. it’s just a shame that, if this story is true, he gets stuck with a choice like this. It never should have gone down that way.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Absolutely
it’s an absolute embarassment for baseball, all these leaks. People question why the players associations fight testing – well fuck, if the “confidential” process is this easily violated, it’s no wonder.
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 8:22 PM CST up reply actions 4 recs
Did you just
announce to the whole world that you have herpes?
"I will agree that the attitude [at BCB] is ridiculous and they have done so much to instigate animosity and then block us from responding. Real mature!"
It doesnt say what kind of herpes
and the medicine for HSV-1 (cold sores) and HSV-2 (the downstairs kind) are the same.
Rushing to say he has an STD when in fact it could be he is just fighting a cold sore is another bad rush to judgement.
Braun is the type of image conscious player that would do anything to fight a cold sore in my opinion.
BCB: Pointless Exercises in Devils Advocacy
BCB Fantasy Football League 2 Champ
by Jeo on Dec 16, 2011 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I can't believe Deadspin has picked this up yet...
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 7:53 PM CST up reply actions
Ugh...
… hasn’t, I mean.
"fortunate, but also lucky"
by Ted Simmons Speed Camp on Dec 15, 2011 8:09 PM CST up reply actions
Run distribution
I was wondering about this all of last season due to the black hole at the bottom of the lineup. Are teams that score from the top 4 positions in the order more or less successful than teams that score from across their entire lineup? The Brewers got well above average production from the top of the order and well below average from the bottom. They managed to score a boatload of runs with that formula, but would they have gotten even more runs if Fielder’s production had been split evenly between the 2nd and 4th sports in the batting order? Would they have gotten significantly less?
WAR is good for giving a measure of a player’s performance compared to his peers, but it isn’t really designed to give a measure of how much he was worth to his team.
I think Mykenk or someone did some work along the lines of run distribution.
To give some ammunition to those advocating the futility of “replacing” WAR, I might run some dumb Monte Carlo simulations using the slash lines from various MLB 1B, 3B, SS that would cumulatively match Fielder’s 51.8 RAR and the RAR coming out of the SS and 3B spot last season and see what impact that could have (making a bunch of simplifying assumptions that eventually means it has no real useful explanatory power at all, but what the hell, right?).
Or I’ll fire up Skyrim and kill some dragons.
That's why the lineup should go:
1,9,2,8,3,7,4,6,5
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 7:42 PM CST up reply actions
...
1. Ryan Braun
2. Alex Gonzalez
3. Matt Gamel
4. Jonathan Lucroy
5. Corey Hart
6. Nyjer Morgan
7. Aramis Ramirez
8. Rickie Weeks
9. Pitcher
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 7:52 PM CST up reply actions
You were going to make a post about run distribution
but then you took an arrow to the knee?
by Archibaldcrane on Dec 15, 2011 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Thanks, brah
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 9:25 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think so...
There’s not one inning in there I wouldn’t feel good about.
A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.
by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 15, 2011 11:40 PM CST up reply actions
Except you're burying two of the best hitters in the lineup near the bottom
As well as taking ABs away from them.
I think that lineup does a good job of spreading out the offense, but that also reduces any chances of a big inning.
Also, I think that lineup will minimize the number of good pitches that Braun sees.
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
You guys are being wildly optimistic
You don’t lose Prince Fielder and not feel it significantly. You just don’t. The odds of Braun getting his suspension revoked or reduced are not good. In fact, there’s no precedent at all in that regard. The Brewers were blessed with the most prolific 1-2 punch in the game with Fielder-Braun. That was a REAL BIG FRIGGIN DEAL behind the success of the 2011 team. And Fielder was HUGE in the positive aspects of what you did in 2009 and 2010.
I’m a Cub fan, so your going to label me a troll no matter what I say. I could care less. But my head says the Brewers are a .500 team in 2012. If Cincinnati lands a frontline starting pitcher like Gio Gonzalez or even a John Danks, then I think they win the division at around the 90 win mark. The wildcard is St. Louis. If they get Carlos Beltran, then I say they win this division and Cincy fights for the wildcard.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
Your head isn't right
But then again, I’m sure you had the Brewers as a .500 win team in 2011, too, right?
Or maybe you just have one of these:
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 15, 2011 10:50 PM CST up reply actions
Prediction for the Cubs
2012 — 90 losses
2013 — 85 losses
Look, if you want to have a blog that is extremist in its homerism, then I can understand that. I simple offer up an objective viewpoint on the 2012 Brewers. My goodness Mat Friggin Gamel is replacing Prince Fielder and you guys have convinced yourself that the WAR down tick will be a couple games. You might want to pull your ass out of the sabermetics just a wee bit and look at things via clear lens.
The Blackhawks and the Stanley Cup in 2010.
If you think the Brewers, as comprised right now, are an 81 win team
You are not being objective.
by cwolf20 on Dec 15, 2011 11:06 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Let me get this straight
You’re reasoning that the Brewers are a .500 team is that Mat Gamel is replacing Prince Fielder at 1st base. Interesting.
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
by Grim Spandango on Dec 15, 2011 11:35 PM CST up reply actions
Didn't know that Fielder was like a 16 WAR player...
Don't sweat the petty things, and don't pet the sweaty things.
by Grim Spandango on Dec 15, 2011 11:37 PM CST up reply actions
Hey guy, pardon us for being a little *UP* on our team and not seeing it with a clear lens as you do
But you do realize this is a BREWERS site right? Most of us arent going to be completely objective in regards to our team. Go and rail on your team, we already do a fine job criticizing it ourselves.
He’s actually underrated, but that’s another can of worms…
I appreciate that you're being at least a little better about this than you were last time, outside of that final sentence anyway.
But while the Brewers lose Fielder, they are gaining a lot on the left side of the infield. I feel like we’ve been over that ad nauseum, including in this very post. I don’t think you realize just how terrifyingly bad Yuniesky Betancourt was last year. And topping that off with Casey McGehee being, possibly, even worse was a something that had to be improved.
Alex Gonzalez is great defensively and, even if Aramis Ramirez is a “dog” as you like to say, the fact of the matter remains that he can flat out hit. Yeah, the Brewers are losing Fielder. That’s a huge, huge hit. And you’re right, sabermetrics isn’t going to show a lot of things that result from Fielder leaving. He was somebody that pitchers feared, more so than Ramirez. But Ramirez is more than competent in the cleanup spot, the Brewers lineup should be nearly as good front to back. And Gonzalez is a marked improvement on defense, at possibly the most important defensive position.
Plus, those are just the everyday players we’re talking about. Zack Greinke should have better results next year, especially now that he has more peace of mind with the defense behind him. I think Gallardo will get better results than he did last season. And Marcum could take a step ahead. Will Wolf be as good as last year? Likely not, but if the Brewers’ top three are even better that won’t matter. Those top three had great advanced stats last season, but the results didn’t quite match it due to the defense behind them. The defense will be better next year, ergo so will the pitchers.
Really, you’re entitled to your opinion and all, but in this case you’re just flat out wrong.
by Noah Jarosh on Dec 16, 2011 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Note that the hat has a 50% off sticker.
"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."
~Doug Melvin
"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."
~RRR
by Charlie Marlow on Dec 17, 2011 2:39 PM CST up reply actions
So
The Cardinals are going to win the wildcard despite losing Pujols and not picking up anyone to replace his bat in the lineup, while the Brewers are going to finish .500 losing Fielder and adding Ramirez and Gonzalez?
Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.
While Fielder is much better than Ramirez,
the upgrade in defense on the left side and the assumption that Gamel will be decent at first base makes me think they may be better. Plus, as great as Fielder is he doesn’t quite fit the Roenicke offense. (not that A-Ram does either, but they’re not building an offense around A-Ram…)
"I'm here to talk about the economy today -- about the need to get four quarters of strong, consistent performance. That wasn't another Jay Cutler joke, I swear. It could be, but it's not."
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:00 PM CDT)
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