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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

Monday's Frosty Mug

Some things to read while remembering whose mic is open.

We're 61 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and this winter's surprises just keep coming. Over the weekend news broke that the Brewers will win the bidding for the right to negotiate with Japanese outfielder Norichika Aoki (FanShot). Todd Rosiak notes that the winner of the bidding won't officially be announced until Thursday, but it looks promising. As Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar notes, this news comes less than three weeks after Melvin told reporters the Brewers don't scout Japan and won't bid on players they haven't seen.

Jack Moore of Disciples of Uecker has a quick scouting report, saying Aoki lacks significant power and may be limited to left field by his arm strength. Aoki is represented in the US by Nez Balelo, who also represents Ryan Braun. Adam McCalvy found a report this morning saying the Brewers (once the posting is official) will bring Aoki to Maryvale to see him work out before offering a contract.

It's worth noting that the Brewers are really getting something close to a free look at a player who could help them. If the Brewers opt not to sign Aoki, the $2.5 million they've reportedly sent to Yakult will be refunded and he'll return to Japan. Once the bidding results are made official, the team and player will have 30 days to sort things out.

Meanwhile, we have a new development in the Ryan Braun situation: This morning TMZ is reporting that his failed test was due to a medication, not steroids (FanShot). Rumors of this nature had been making the rounds for some time now, but this is the closest thing we've seen to an acknowledgment of them. You know a rumor is pure speculation when a TMZ report *adds* credibility. They're claiming the information came from a source directly connected with Major League Baseball.

Elsewhere in Braun notes: Jacob Peterson of Beyond the Box Score notes that Braun spent 13 hours and two minutes at the plate in 2011, the sixth longest time in all of baseball. For comparison purposes, Aramis Ramirez had six fewer plate appearances but was only at the dish for nine hours and 12 minutes.

By the way, here's confirmation of something you probably already suspected: Walk Like A Sabermetrician says Braun and Prince Fielder gave the Brewers the NL's best #3 and 4 hitters, but the team's #5 and 6 hitters ranked 15th in the 16 team league.

As long as I've already mentioned him, we might as well discuss today's Prince Fielder notes:

I guess I'm inclined to see this as "not all bad," but your results may vary: Dodger Sims used three stats to identify Shaun Marcum as the pitcher most similar to Ted Lilly of the Dodgers.

Here's another thing we probably should have suspected: Jimmy Rollins, who re-signed to a three year, $33 million deal with the Phillies this weekend, did so after turning down a bigger offer from the Brewers.

In the minors:

  • Baseball America reports the Brewers have re-signed veteran infielder Andy Gonzalez to a minor league deal. Gonzalez turned 30 last week and hit .289/.403/.416 in 69 games in 2011 between Huntsville and Nashville.
  • Gonzalez, by the way, went 2-for-4 and hit a home run in Caguas' 5-3 loss to Carolina in Puerto Rico yesterday. You can read about that and more in today's Winter League Notes. Gonzalez is now batting .254/.308/.390 through 18 games.
  • Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com has a look back at Scooter Gennett's 2011 season, and announces that Taylor Green and Wily Peralta are MLB.com's Brewer organizational players of the year.
  • Peace and Glove has a five tweet interview with reliever Rob Wooten, who split 2011 between Brevard County and Huntsville after missing the 2010 season.
  • The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have unveiled the bobbleheads they'll be giving away on Opening Day in April.
  • Baseball America has a story on Santo Manzanillo, but it's subscriber-only.

I have no idea what a "GIBBY" looks like, but Ryan Braun will get one to put on his mantle: His trip and fall between third and home on August 31 won the award for Oddity of the Year.

Around baseball:

Diamondbacks: Signed outfielder Jason Kubel to a two year, $15 million deal with an option for 2014.
Giants: Signed catcher Eli Whiteside to a major league deal.
Indians: Acquired outfielder Aaron Cunningham from the Padres for a minor league pitcher, designated pitcher Josh Judy for assignment and signed infielder Jose Lopez to a minor league deal.
Mariners: Signed reliever George Sherrill to a one year deal.
Mets: Re-signed outfielder Mike Baxter to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed pitcher Jeff Fulchino and outfielder Jason Michaels to minor league deals.
Orioles: Signed outfielder Endy Chavez to a one year, $1.5 million deal.
Padres: Designated catcher Luis Martinez for assignment.
Reds: Acquired pitcher Mat Latos from the Padres for pitcher Edinson Volquez, first baseman Yonder Alonso and two prospects (FanShot).
Rockies: Signed first baseman/outfielder Michael Cuddyer to a three year, $31.5 million deal and signed catcher Wil Nieves and pitcher Mike Ekstrom to minor league deals.
Tigers: Pitcher Al Albuquerque is expected to be out until the All Star break following elbow surgery.

In former Brewers:

Today in baseball economics:

  • It's possible we're going to get a rare look at the actual value of an MLB team this winter. As one Mariners' minority owner is getting divorced, two court-ordered appraisals of the franchise have come back with the team valued somewhere between $551 and $750 million. Forbes had previously estimated the team's worth at $449 million.
  • The Pirates are getting ready to become the latest team to experiment with dynamic ticket pricing.

I'm not sure I agree with this, but I'll throw it out there for conversation's sake: Both Buster Olney and Keith Law agreed over the weekend that the NL Central is baseball's worst division. I know the bottom of the Central (Astros and Cubs) is awful, but I have a hard time believing the NL West or AL Central are markedly better divisions.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to send another basket.

Drink up.

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Adam McCalvy found a report this morning saying the Brewers (once the posting is official) will being Aoki to Maryvale to see him work out before offering a contract.

lol, i’m sure a typo
but relects Saito, and it’s another Japanese player so it works on so many levels

refraining from all caps

by BEARDEDJEFF on Dec 19, 2011 10:27 AM CST reply actions  

Fixed.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 19, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions  

Aoki work out

is anyone else a little disturbed by the fact that they have to work him out to decide whether to offer him a deal? First off, what was the 2.5 million just to negotiate with the guy for if they didn’t have a known commodity? Secondly, where are the scouts? If you are putting up solid money that could bring in a couple relievers or even a utility guy, shouldn’t you have some idea of what you’re getting into.

I may be missing something here, but it just feels like they saw the statlines and the WBC, and said, “why not give this a shot” without knowing what they got.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Dec 19, 2011 10:40 AM CST reply actions  

Well, the 2.5 mil is given back if we don't sign him. So I'm pretty okay with it.

Fighter of the Nightman. Champion of the sun. Master of karate & friendship for everyone.

by The Dayman on Dec 19, 2011 10:43 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

What The Dayman says above is really the kicker for me.

They’re putting down a $2.5 million, refundable deposit on a guy that might be able to help them. If they don’t sign him, all they’re out is what it cost to fly people to Maryvale to look at him.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 19, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions   1 recs

huh...

I thought the posting system was non-refundable. That’s why I was always really against it. But if it’s refundable…

I’m still a little shaken that their scouting doesn’t have enough on this guy to determine if he’s worth the investment. It seems they know more about a 35th round pick out of some JC than a guy that’s played professional baseball for 7 years in Japan.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Dec 19, 2011 10:54 AM CST up reply actions  

This came up last winter when the A's paid $19.1 million to negotiate with Iwakuma but didn't sign him.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20101206&content_id=16268206&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

It’s a flaw in the system – by placing a high bid you can win exclusive rights to a player you don’t have interest in signing, just to block other teams from getting him. That’s what they were accused of.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 19, 2011 11:28 AM CST up reply actions  

I'm sure the system is in place for a reason, but I have no idea what it would be.

Wouldn’t it be more advantageous to the team to simply put a price tag on the player being posted and let teams negotiate with the agent? Swallows still get their $2.5 million and Aoki gets to play in America. Seems outright straightforward.

by ecocd on Dec 19, 2011 4:29 PM CST up reply actions  

The team wants as much as possible though, hence an auction.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

... but they get nothing if he's not signed

In part, if the auction price was too high. I guess everything has some aspect of risk/reward to it.

by ecocd on Dec 19, 2011 4:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Then they get the player back though.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions  

It's a secret auction, though.

So teams aren’t really going to bid more than they want to spend. Making it a secret allows teams to think about the bid they want to put in, so it’s unlikely that they’re going to overspend unless it’s a phenomenal player. If it is, then they are probably willing to overspend.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 19, 2011 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I think that is where the system confuses me a little.

It would make more sense for the bid to be non-refundable so that doesn’t happen.

At the same time, by making it refundable, teams are probably willing to bid more, which helps out the team that the player is coming from.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 19, 2011 4:35 PM CST up reply actions  

Making the bid non-refundable would be crazy. Then you pay $50 million to talk to Darvish and basically have to overpay $49 million just so you don’t take a net loss.

If they’re worried about false bids they should just put in a $2 million guaranteed fee or something like that.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I doubt bids go that high in a system with non-refundable bids.

I don’t know if they are worried about false bids, probably not since not many players come through the posting system.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 19, 2011 4:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Non-refundable bids probably wouldn’t go over $5 million. Clearly the NPB wants no part of that.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:42 PM CST up reply actions  

I WAS RIGHT

The brewers admitted to jim breem of bernie’s crew that they hadn’t scouted Aoki.

They either a) were not expecting to win him or b) are totally inept. It’s beyond me that you would post on a player you have not scouted. Bush league, really.

"That's not a weird stat. Rickie is a run-scorer," Yost said. "It doesn't matter. It doesn't matter," Yost told reporters. "See, you guys have no concept. He's a run-scorer. So there's nothing weird about it. That's what he does."
BCB Fantasy Football League 1 Champ

by Hyatt on Dec 19, 2011 7:50 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Come on, seriously?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 7:52 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

(also, the Brewers front office consistently lies about everything, so we don’t really know anything at all)

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 7:53 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

It's not true...

Doug’s scout was a tiny dog!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 8:02 PM CST up reply actions  

Out of curiousity

Anyone know the MLE’s of Logan Schafer’s season in AA/AAA last year vs. Aoki in Japan?

by Infield Fly Rule on Dec 19, 2011 12:11 PM CST up reply actions  

No. They do this for a living.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:03 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Credibility

Or lack thereof. I don’t know how these bozos can be taken seriously with their seemingly neverending ripjobs on the quality of the division. Don’t we hear this crap every year? Isn’t it a known fact that the 2 NL CENTRAL TEAMS IN THE NLCS only made the playoffs in the first place because they played in the oh-so-weak Central?

I don’t really see the evidence to support the assertion, let alone believe in the objectivity of such rankings. In sum, “whatev.”

by Tristram28 on Dec 19, 2011 11:18 AM CST reply actions  

Hey, on the plus side...

The division gets immediately stronger in a little while by kicking the Astros out…

"Aw, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that."

by hilbelink on Dec 19, 2011 12:06 PM CST up reply actions  

GIBBY

Things I learned from that GIBBYs link…

1) Apparently, Hotmail still exists.

by bat_matt on Dec 19, 2011 11:21 AM CST reply actions  

Rollins turning down the Brewers

As much as I would have liked to have signed him, it’s nice to see a player sticking with his home team.

by Yomes on Dec 19, 2011 12:55 PM CST reply actions  

Marcum/Lilly

also of interest the closest comparable for Clayton Kershaw (9.46, 2.78, 1.04) was Yovanni Gallardo (9.34, 3.07, 1.29). What I did was take K/9, BB/9, GB/FB three very important skilled stats from the 2010 and 2011 seasons from each starting pitcher (150+ IP) and came up with a similarity score/list for each pitcher. Ted Lilly’s (7.55, 2.21, 0.64) closest comp was Shaun Marcum (7.34, 2.27, 0.88). Marcum’s closest comparables were (Hudson, Cain, Peavy, Lilly, Oswalt, Colon). If you’d like to see lists from some of the other Brewers starters let me know.

by Xeifrank on Dec 19, 2011 2:04 PM CST reply actions  

I'm a sucker for this kind of stuff

awesome job.

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 19, 2011 8:52 PM CST up reply actions  

Does anyone remember when a pitcher from the 1970 roster visited the booth during a game?

Maybe Lew Krausse? It was some 40th anniversary event, and the special guest was the pitcher who started the first Milwaukee Brewer game at County Stadium.

I’m bringing this up, because I vividly remember Bill Schroeder asking the former pitcher to talk about his work as a scout over on the Pacific Rim. He was a key part of the move that brought Ichiro over to the states.

(I’m embarrassed for not knowing who started the first game in 1970, but it doesn’t help that they lost 12-0 to the Angels. He did throw out the first pitch at our game, and I think we probably lost that one in 2010).

Aside from the scout named “小さく勤勉な犬”, maybe this former pitcher I should know the name of is someone the Brewers consult with…

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 2:22 PM CST reply actions  

Buster Olney and Keith Law are kind of stupid.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:02 PM CST reply actions  

Eh

Someone has to be last and it’s not a clear cut distinction. I’m not a fan of Olney or Law, but they’re far from the worst national baseball writers.

by ecocd on Dec 19, 2011 4:32 PM CST up reply actions  

They're pretty horrible though.

The division with the World Series Champion, the past two NL MVPs, a 96-win team, etc. is the worst in baseball? People say the same thing every year and then the NL Central beats everybody else. What a surprise.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 4:41 PM CST up reply actions  

It's also the division that likely just lost two of the best sluggers in the game

and is home to the Astros, Cubs, and Pirates.

I’m not saying I agree that it’s the worst, but to me there’s a pretty clear cut upper tier with 3 divisions and lower tier with 3 divisions, and within those tiers, it’s a bit more hazy.

by placidity on Dec 19, 2011 4:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Another way they are stupid: "ranking" divisions in the first place.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 19, 2011 5:13 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

I don't like the way sportswriters operate right now...

They average 15,000-20,000 words a week, and there is no way more than 8% can be that good. I don’t pay attention to much of what Olney writes, because I have to pay for that.

His name is Buster, though, so that probably means he’s a nice person. . .a nice person with a higher-than-average capacity for boring everybody!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 7:01 PM CST up reply actions  

Averaging 15,000 words per week is too many?

Assuming a normal, five Mug week I probably average something like 12,000.

Now that's great tasting chicken!

by Kyle Lobner on Dec 19, 2011 7:12 PM CST up reply actions  

Your objective, though, is to report on the team.

You’ve got the mug, and special interest stories and survey follow-ups. Buster is paid to talk to himself!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 7:19 PM CST up reply actions  

I haven't seen mention of this anywhere else..

Happy Greinke and Yuni Anniversary!

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 4:14 PM CST reply actions  

Sarcasm?

It was the post for “Today in Brewer History”.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 19, 2011 4:22 PM CST up reply actions  

What sarcasm? I must have missed it.

Sorry about that.

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 4:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Ok.

I wasn’t sure with the added “and Yuni” part. The anniversary was mainly focused on Greinke.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 19, 2011 4:31 PM CST up reply actions  

Hmmm... maybe the crossed-out 'and Yuni' can be taken as sarcasm.

I just remember that, by early afternoon last year, I was worrying about Yuni coming over to the team and almost completely forgot about Greinke!

So, maybe not sarcasm

I would say a humorous slant to an otherwise serious statement, by adding Yuni. But, at the same time, it would be more effective if we’d initially wanted him on the team.

Maybe a linguist might be able to explain this better. I guess that if I’d said this to you all in person, I’d say “Happy Greinke and Yuni Anniversary!” (And then immediately start smiling and look at the ceiling to show that I didn’t mean the part about Yuni).

Why am I going to such lengths to figure this out? Well, it’s because I’m no good with sarcasm, I don’t catch onto it easily, and I hate it when I don’t know that a person is doing that. So if you also have a broken sarcasm detector and thought I was pouring in the sarcasm, I’d like to know if this is true.
Now – I do love irony, and not all irony is sarcasm/not all sarcasm is irony. Just like not all peds are steroids, and not all banned substances are peds… and some steroids are corticosteroids, and are good for cold sores.

FanGraphs should consider a venue for a Gallery Night... they could even serve a cake with a Win Expectancy Chart of the 7/7/11 Brewers' game etched in the frosting, and 7-up. Oh, yeah - and t-shirts that say "SABR-Friday." I'm totally there.

by Jess'HittheBall on Dec 19, 2011 6:47 PM CST up reply actions  

autographs

I never got them from players as a kid either outside of the organized team fanfest (Twins in my case,) and I see Kyle and I both got our first autograph from the same player. :)

by morineko on Dec 19, 2011 9:44 PM CST reply actions  

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