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Around SBN: Trent Richardson Interviews Fellow Brown Brandon Weeden

Thursday's Frosty Mug

I like Izturis already.

Some things to read while working on a screenplay.

We're 58 days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Maryvale, and now we know five more players who will be joining the Brewers in major league camp.

The first invitee is Cesar Izturis, who the Brewers have signed to a minor league deal and invited to spring training (FanShot). Izturis will turn 32 in February and is a career .255/.295/.322 hitter over eleven seasons. His real value is on defense, though: He's played 1074 career games at short and been worth an average of 7.6 runs above average per 150 games according to UZR.

Izturis' free agent value was probably knocked down a bit by injury concerns: He played in just 18 games in 2011 (and only two after May 12) as he dealt with an elbow injury and a groin strain. He's probably the leading candidate to take over Craig Counsell's former "defensive utility" role, although it's worth noting that his experience away from shortstop is pretty limited. Jaymes Langrehr of The Brewers Bar hit the nail on the head when he said Izturis "isn't a bad guy to have stashed away in Nashville in case of injury or ineffectiveness."

The Brewers also announced yesterday they've signed free agent pitcher Juan Perez to a minor league deal and invited him to camp. Perez is 33 and pitched in eight games in relief for the Phillies in 2011. He also pitched in 36 games for Lehigh Valley in AAA and posted a 5.70 ERA, walking 6.2 batters per nine but also striking out 13.1.

Finally, the Brewers have invited 2011 first round picks Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley and catcher Anderson De La Rosa to major league camp (FanShot). None of them are serious candidates to make the team.

Earlier this week we talked about Taylor Green and his prospective future now that Aramis Ramirez appears to be installed in his place at third base. Nick Fieder of The Hardball Times is still predicting big things for Green, though: as part of his bold predictions for all 30 teams he says Green will get over 400 at bats this year in place of Ramirez and Mat Gamel and hit .280 with 15 home runs.

By the way, Call to the Pen listed the Ramirez signing as the fifth biggest transaction of the offseason to this point.

Here's a reminder of the good things that can happen when you develop your own talent. John Axford was worth 2.9 wins above replacement (according to B-Ref) in 2011 but was paid just $442,000. That made him the 19th best value in all of baseball among pitchers, according to High Heat Stats.

On the opposite end of the contract spectrum, here are today's Prince Fielder notes:

I have no sources or inside information, but as an observer it looks to me like the Mariners are bidding against themselves here. At the very least, multiple teams appear to have gone out of their way to make it clear they're not competing.

With a couple of notable exceptions, Doug Melvin has had a pretty good offseason. This week's BCB Tracking Poll shows pretty widespread approval for all of his recent moves.

The Brewer ticket office is also having a pretty good winter: They've already sold one million tickets for 2012, and this is the earliest they've ever reached that mark.

In the minors:

  • Marc Hulet of FanGraphs has posted his list of the top 15 Brewer prospects for 2012, and Taylor Jungmann leads the way (FanShot).
  • morineko isn't feeling well this morning, so Winter League Notes are taking a day off.
  • The Wisconsin Timber Rattlers have posted a new Spot the Difference challenge. I'm either getting good at this or they're making them easier, because I found all five.

"Year in review" posts are an easy way to fill space during a quiet holiday season, which is why I'll probably do at least one next week. In his, Jeff Robbins of WISC lists Ryan Braun's eighth inning homer in the Brewers' NL Central-clinching win as 2011's seventh best Wisconsin sports moment.

If you'd like more Brewer content today but you're sick of reading, this week's View From Bernie's Chalet podcast is up. Topics include Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Norichika Aoki and more.

This morning's Mug is the 993rd in BCB history. Hopefully you'll join us at Rounding Third on January 3 to celebrate The Night of (Approximately) 1000 Mugs.

Around baseball:

Cardinals: Signed outfielder Eugenio Velez and pitcher R.J. Swindle to minor league deals.
Cubs: Signed outfielder Reed Johnson to a minor league deal.
Indians: Signed infielder Andy LaRoche to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Claimed third baseman Carlos Rivero off waivers from the Phillies.
Pirates: Signed infielder Anderson Hernandez to a minor league deal.
Rangers: Acquired catcher Luis Martinez from the Padres for a minor league pitcher.
Red Sox: Hired Bob McClure and Jerry Royster as their new pitching and third base coaches, respectively.
Reds: Acquired reliever Sean Marshall from the Cubs for pitcher Travis Wood and two minor leaguers.
Royals: Signed reliever Jose Mijares to a one year, $925,000 deal and will pay Yuniesky Betancourt $2 million in 2012.
White Sox: Signed pitcher John Danks to a five year, $65 million contract, avoiding arbitration.

We spend a lot of time here and around the internet discussing, rating and evaluating minor league players. It's a fun pastime, but do we take it too far? David Schoenfield of ESPN.com makes the case that prospects are now overvalued, causing teams to overpay for potential that may never develop.

Of course, we also spend a lot of time looking back at old transactions. Bucs Dugout, for example, ran this post yesterday arguing that the Pirates won the deal that sent Nyjer Morgan to the Nationals in 2009.

In former Brewers:

Yesterday I mentioned the Brewer holiday greeting. It was nice, but it's not nearly as unintentionally funny as the one the Pirates made.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm renaming an airport.

Drink up.

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What do you mean by that?

I’m just curious – I didn’t see any big problem with it.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 12:09 PM CST up reply actions  

He's either completely ignoring (or completely ignorant of) the economic realities that make it necessary

for small & mid market teams to trade “already terrific players” for players who only might turn out to be stars.

by The Left Button on Dec 22, 2011 12:38 PM CST up reply actions   2 recs

I'm going to take a wild guess and suggest he hasn't covered the Royals, for instance

over the last 15 years. Taking a completely different view than him, the “overvalue” of prospects is actually a measure of the advantage that high payroll teams have over low payrolls teams. If a market inequality is sustained, that implies there must be a factor exogenous (econ term for “outside”) to the system. I guess all of that couldn’t be contained in a column, anyway, but I doubt it was something he had thought to examine from more than one point of view. Columnists aren’t paid for balanced reviews of topics, anyway.

That said, what is valued correctly right now? Most people were a little surprised at the cost of shortstop free agents. Free agent relief pitchers are always “too expensive.” What part of the system is in a proper equilibrium according to popular opinion.

by ecocd on Dec 22, 2011 2:01 PM CST up reply actions  

That all makes sense

But the column was based on a (far better) column by Rany Jazayerli, who knows more about the Royals than almost anyone in America outside of the club itself. So I don’t think the argument, on its face, shows any inherent ignorance about the way small-market teams operate.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 3:25 PM CST up reply actions  

So he's ignoring it then.

The question of why the Diamondbacks traded Dan Haren for someone who only might someday be as good as Dan Haren isn’t some great rhetorical mystery or even the result of the overvaluation of prospects.

I know, and you know, and I’m sure Dave Schoenfield knows, that it’s not a question of Dan Haren vs. Tyler Skaggs, it’s Tyler Skaggs or nothing.

by The Left Button on Dec 22, 2011 3:41 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

Is this like that thing where somebody says “look at this maniac’s Facebook profile” and then it links to your own?

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 23, 2011 12:22 AM CST up reply actions  

Hey

thanks for defining exogenous

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 22, 2011 3:48 PM CST via Android app up reply actions  

They gave up too much for Gonzalez but yeah, I agree.

I also hope the Nationals sign Prince.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 3:45 PM CST up reply actions  

According to Cot's

Their payroll was $68.3M last season, which was a new high for the franchise. With Werth’s contract as well as many guys becoming arbitration-eligible after next season, it’s only going to get higher.

Granted, I have no idea what the market is like for them.

Pujols is the Barack Obama of baseball.

by sjlee on Dec 22, 2011 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

Baltimore/Washington are the fourth biggest market (behind NY, LA, Chicago)

Never know how that works, but I’m guessing they could go up quite a bit if they wanted to start drawing fans.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 4:23 PM CST up reply actions  

i think their tv contract sucks

so they should be limited, but they have a very rich owner of advancing age, so who knows?

by Capt Science on Dec 22, 2011 4:24 PM CST up reply actions  

Today's "Sign Norichika Aoki" Post

I went through and looked at the statistical drop off every NPB position player has had (career NPB stats at time of move → MLB stats in first-three-years). I required 250+ MLB PA and took out So Taguchi because I think he was on steroids or something (all his numbers went up). The average drop was 0.021 for AVG, 0.030 for OBP, and 0.092 for SLG (not surprisingly, power is the main thing that goes: 0.072 drop in ISO). I’m not saying it has any predictive value, but if Aoki were consistent with every other position player to come over:

Based on “old ball” pre-2011 career stats
Best case (lowest drops): .341/.409/.422, wOBA est. .372 (2011 comp: Shane Victorino)
Average (average drops): .315/.381/.380, wOBA est. .343 (2011 comp: Andre Ethier)
Worst case (worst drops): .290/.351/.340, wOBA est. .312 (2011 comp: Ben Francisco)

Based on post-2011 career stats
Best case (lowest drops): .341/.399/.404, wOBA est. .361 (2011 comp: Andrew McCutchen)
Average (average drops): .315/.371/.362, wOBA est. .331 (2011 comp: Brett Gardner)
Worst case (worst drops): .290/.349/.322, wOBA est. .305 (2011 comp: Carl Crawford)

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 3:44 PM CST reply actions  

Also, in case anyone is wondering, if you remove Ichiro from the sample for being a mythical freak of nature, these numbers would actually go up.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 3:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Here's hoping Beltran decides somewhere besides St. Louis

He’s supposed to make his decision soon between 4-6 teams, of which the Cardinals are definitely included. If the Cards don’t get him, the Brewers should (on paper, anyway) pretty easily take the division. If they do get him, it’s going to be a better (and perhaps bitter) fight. I still don’t see the Reds being that strong just yet, but they could be one to watch, too. They’ve got some very, very nice pieces but just not as many of them.

by kotsaythebuzzkill on Dec 22, 2011 4:40 PM CST reply actions  

Rumors are starting to come out that Fielder is about to sign with the Mariners.

No big-name sources yet, but here are the two tweets I saw on it:

Rumors floating around that Prince Fielder is about to sign with the #Mariners. Obviously expected but still depressing day for the #Brewers

Link

Logan Morrison is personally reporting that Prince Fielder is going to Seattle. Good luck #bigfella.

Link

I wouldn’t take it too seriously yet (looks like Logan Morrison is the originator of this), but it’s starting to get picked up by more people.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 22, 2011 4:43 PM CST reply actions  

Probably

I had seen enough to mention it, but I’m waiting for a more reliable source before really reacting on it.

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 22, 2011 4:46 PM CST up reply actions  

...and confirmation that he was playing a joke on people.
Oh $hit, you guys thought I meant the 1B from Milwaukee. My bad. (I love all of you. Happy Holidays!)

Link

To which Ken Rosenthal replied:

This is war. Time to concoct false rumors about LoMo!

Link

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 22, 2011 5:01 PM CST up reply actions  

I still find him to be pretty entertaining
@LoMoMarlins Maybe u could hook me up w/ a sweet fedoras 2 disguise me? RT @Kevin_Goldstein: LoMo sure gets a lot of attention 4 a LF w/ a .330 OBP

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 8:10 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, that's funny.

Brian Wilson sucks.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I'm going to miss Prince, but I'm not really sad. I'll be happy for him when he gets his mega-deal.*

It’s been a foregone conclusion since last offseason. Prince played his ass off every minute of every game, was great with the fans, and brought the team to the NLCS. He doesn’t owe the Brewers anything else, deserves every dollar he’ll get, and I hope he has a long awesome career and gets into the hall of fame someday.

*Offer void if deal is with Cubs or Cardinals.

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Dec 22, 2011 4:51 PM CST up reply actions   1 recs

By the way

I just went to Lookout Landing to see if they may have had some more info to back this up, but it looks like they are pretty frustrated with all of the rumors going around.

Link

Contributor on Brew Crew Ball, Commissioner of Prognostikeggers, Owner of a broken sarcasm detector

by -JP- on Dec 22, 2011 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Norichika Aoki News

-Dates for his tip to the U.S. (to workout for Melvin & co, I presume) have not yet been set

-He worked out with Ichiro for a few hours today in Tokyo

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 6:37 PM CST reply actions  

Cardinals sign Carlos Beltran

In related news, Cardinals do not sign Albert Pujols

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 6:59 PM CST reply actions  

Calling it right now-

He isn’t gonna have a good season.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 7:19 PM CST up reply actions  

Beltran

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

Not for a guy who's been worth $24M over the last two years

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 7:54 PM CST up reply actions  

What calculations are you using?

Because I have 5.5 fWAR x ~$5m per WAR = $27.5m.

And that’s with a season in which he only played 64 games, a season in which he posted 2 fewer WAR than any season of his career since he was 23. Even if that outlier happens again, he’s still worth $26m if he plays a full season in the other year. I’d say that’s a steal.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 8:01 PM CST up reply actions  

It's not an outlier, he can't stay healthy and is on the decline

Most teams in MLB could have used another OF this season. There’s a reason Beltran didn’t get that much more than Jason Kubel.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 8:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Beltran's WAR since he turned 30

5.5
7.6
3.0
0.8
4.7

That 0.8 is just as much of an outlier as Aramis Ramirez’s 2010. You can go ahead and bank on two repeats of that 0.8 WAR season (that would be great, of course), but that doesn’t seem likely based on his history. And if he does anything more than 2.5 WAR per season, it’s anywhere from a decent deal to a great deal for the Cardinals.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 8:16 PM CST up reply actions  

I don't think a 34-35yo OF will be able to play enough games to put up numbers like that.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 8:18 PM CST up reply actions  

BTW-

The Cardinals D is going to suck ass.

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 8:22 PM CST up reply actions  

It did this year, too

Didn’t seem to hurt them too much in the long run.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 9:40 PM CST up reply actions  

True.

But they did get extremely lucky to make the playoffs.

by tcyoung on Dec 22, 2011 11:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Also, Albert Pujols.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 23, 2011 12:18 AM CST up reply actions  

Out of curiosity

do you think a 42 year old reliever would be able to repeat a 2.03 ERA (3.40 FIP)?

"If we want to sign a Type A free agent, we would lose a second-round pick, but we don't have a way to get picks back. Our whole Draft process needs to be redone."

~Doug Melvin

"Something always good seems to happen when he's in there. Numbers matched up good."

~RRR

by Charlie Marlow on Dec 22, 2011 9:57 PM CST up reply actions  

Nobody can repeat a 2.03 ERA

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 10:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn't give him $26 million

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 10:28 PM CST up reply actions  

It's not an outlier based on skill though, it's because he can't stay healthy anymore

And he started having knee problems against at the end of the season in 2011.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 8:19 PM CST up reply actions  

again*

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 22, 2011 8:20 PM CST up reply actions  

Except Beltran's still valuable even if he's not healthy enough to play full seasons.

Beltran played only 81 games in 2009, and still played well enough to put up 3 WAR anyway. I think a reasonable expectation for Beltran would be to play 2/3 of the season, which, at the rate he’s been producing over the past three or four years, would put him at 3.5 WAR or so. Drop that a half a WAR for aging, and you still get 6 WAR over two years, which is more than the value of the contract. If he stays healthier, all the production you get on top of that is gravy.

Sure, he could pull a Pavano and spend almost the entire time on the DL (as could anyone), but even with that possibility, I still think it’s a pretty decent bet for the Cardinals.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 22, 2011 9:47 PM CST up reply actions  

81 Games in 2009, posted 3WAR

Yeah, but then he played 64 games in 2010 and had .8WAR
Let’s say he plays three times as many games as last year (questionable), he will barely have 2.5+

A samurai sword collection. If you can do it. I don’t know if you’re allowed.

by TwoShoesMcGooze on Dec 22, 2011 10:30 PM CST up reply actions  

Agree to disagree, I guess.

I think it’s unrealistic to think an aging guy with deteriorating defense and chronic knee problems is going to be a great CF anymore. Most GMs in MLB seem to concur.

If Plush had to pick Wearwolf or Vampire, I'm a Wearwolf!

by SRB on Dec 23, 2011 12:21 AM CST up reply actions  

I guess we'll see, and I hope you're right.

Beltran won’t be playing CF, though – Jay will be there. He’ll be in right.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 23, 2011 8:48 AM CST up reply actions  

Actually, now that I think about it

Beltran will probably split time between CF and RF – CF when they want Craig in the lineup, RF when they want Jay in there.

by Cheeseandcorn on Dec 23, 2011 8:52 AM CST up reply actions  

It kind of depends on how they use him...

If they play him in RF and leave Jay in CF, it should be fine.
If they end up moving him into CF so that they can get Craig’s bat in the lineup…eeehhhhh…

fka "warwick5s"

by DEUCE SLUICE on Dec 22, 2011 9:33 PM CST up reply actions  

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